what if i wanted to hit a casino really hard

[kewljason]

This "experiment" will likely result in a loss of money or perhaps minuscule profit, eclipsed by minimum wage.

Why waste money AND time ?

Now this, Flash, I agree with. I don't object to pointing out that this is a horrible game that most of us would not waste our time on, including me and I play mediocre games that most players wouldn't touch. The profit is very small and the variance huge. I only object to saying the best you can due is break even if you are lucky, when sims show you can make a small profit of maybe up to a unit per hour. Only the player himself can determine if that kind of return is worth his time and effort. We know it wouldn't be worth yours or mine.

 

[arrando]

It should be around 2 units per hour. Isn't that ok? The one thing I did not check was standard deviation here as I don't have the book in front of me right now. It could be too high and thus would not be worth playing. It also seems that there is a lot of opinion on games worth playing or not. Flash, you keep saying that you can only break even with bad pen such as 65% when this is not true even with 50% pen as it is still possible to make positive EV although not worth it.
So my question is, in anyones opinion, when does a game become worth playing? Is 6 deck ha .54 80% pen worth it? How about .4 70% pen? Assume, say, a 1-10 spread with wonging.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Like I said, there are many reasons that you may change your opinion of those casinos in the future. Hit them hard if you want, but don't burn yourself out. I guarantee that you will regret it if you continue down the AP road.

I'm probably getting cynical, but I'm starting to think that explaining this concept to people is -EV in itself. In fact, I'm almost certain of it. Nevertheless, if anyone continues to try and understand your point, they'll surely benefit from it.

 

[Solo player]

Going to some place like Vegas. I spend more time per trip scouting tables than playing. Always looking for the best games to play.

To try and hit any casino hard, at a sub-par game, to show them who's the boss makes no sense. Move on and find a better game to play.

 

[arrando]

Going to some place like Vegas. I spend more time per trip scouting tables than playing. Always looking for the best games to play.

To try and hit any casino hard, at a sub-par game, to show them who's the boss makes no sense. Move on and find a better game to play.

haha to show him who's boss? um no, sorry. unfortunately, this sub-par game is the closest and to get any sort of advantage for some time would only be plus ev.

and sonny I understand your point. i'd much rather play better games, but its the only place within expense range day trip driving distance so i was just wondering. lastly, no one answered this yet, but would an 80% pen game h17 ds ls be ok to play?

 

[nicetrades200303]

If, purely by chance, you get some BIG counts where you actually have a
2%+ advantage, you will still likely go broke, only more quickly than you think.

You seem to imagine that you are a favorite to win your upcoming hand(s)
simply because you have a nice big True Count. That is 100% false.

FLASH1296, can you please explain in more details for the newbie counters like myself? That's exactly how I have been thinking: "If I have a big count, I will win. If I play with an edge, how can I lose?" I sense that, that way of thinking is wrong, but I don't know why. Thanks.

 

[Solo player]

haha to show him who's boss? um no, sorry. unfortunately, this sub-par game is the closest and to get any sort of advantage for some time would only be plus ev.

and sonny I understand your point. i'd much rather play better games, but its the only place within expense range day trip driving distance so i was just wondering. lastly, no one answered this yet, but would an 80% pen game h17 ds ls be ok to play?

Well all I can say then is good luck.

 

[blackriver]

you will be +ev. it seems like you are saying you will make $10 an hour? if this is also fun for you then i would say go for it.

sonny is talking about the big picture and while hes right i think this is something that has to be learned the hard way. you have to have the right circumstances and some luck to know what he is getting at and have learned it the easy way.

i think what theyre saying is the exposure is just not worth the minimum wage. If you are making $10/hr playing perfect then youre probably makin closer to $5/hr in reality. Now imagine if you were flipping burgers at mcdonalds and every week they put your paycheck on a roulette wheel. this is what you new part time job would look like. you need a theoretical winrate of at LEAST 4x whatever other opportunities you have to make it worth it.

but if this satisfies a need to gamble and some mental exercise and you dont care about you 10k, arent counting on any income from this and have time to burn and dont care about burning places, then maybe its worth it

 

[arrando]

you will be +ev. it seems like you are saying you will make $10 an hour? if this is also fun for you then i would say go for it.

sonny is talking about the big picture and while hes right i think this is something that has to be learned the hard way. you have to have the right circumstances and some luck to know what he is getting at and have learned it the easy way.

i think what theyre saying is the exposure is just not worth the minimum wage. If you are making $10/hr playing perfect then youre probably makin closer to $5/hr in reality. Now imagine if you were flipping burgers at mcdonalds and every week they put your paycheck on a roulette wheel. this is what you new part time job would look like. you need a theoretical winrate of at LEAST 4x whatever other opportunities you have to make it worth it.

but if this satisfies a need to gamble and some mental exercise and you dont care about you 10k, arent counting on any income from this and have time to burn and dont care about burning places, then maybe its worth it

Ok i get that you guys think it is not worth it and it might not be. Again, I was wondering bc it was the closest place, so no no need to answer the question again, seriously like the same answer in a different form each time. But no one answered my other one. What about 80% pen and those same rules???????

 

[kewljason]

Ok i get that you guys think it is not worth it and it might not be. Again, I was wondering bc it was the closest place, so no no need to answer the question again, seriously like the same answer in a different form each time. But no one answered my other one. What about 80% pen and those same rules???????

I would play 6 deck, HA .54, 80% pen, but I play games that many players would not consider. I wouldn't travel out of my way to play it, but if there were other games nearby I would include it in my rotation and take a look each trip.

Did you post the rules somewhere that make up that .54 house advantage? I ask because if they include surrender, I would consider the actual HA to be lower as surrender is really worth significantly more to a counter. Especially one using a large spread like 20-1.

 

[arrando]

I would play 6 deck, HA .54, 80% pen, but I play games that many players would not consider. I wouldn't travel out of my way to play it, but if there were other games nearby I would include it in my rotation and take a look each trip.

Did you post the rules somewhere that make up that .54 house advantage? I ask because if they include surrender, I would consider the actual HA to be lower as surrender is really worth significantly more to a counter. Especially one using a large spread like 20-1.

Yes, they do include surrender and since the area with the tables is smoke free, even better...

o wait, actually, i could only use a 10-1 spread here bc of the $10 min right now. But with wonging, I think that would be ok.