What is the biggest losing streak you've had?

[psyduck]

Well, definitely not an expert ST'er or anything, so take what I say for what its worth (I more ST in addition to CC'ing) - but in a sense the short term variance is greater since I'm making bigger bets more often then I would straight up CC'ing. ST'ing ain't no license to print money either, the % advantages you get with it are similar to CC'ing. You can get sh*t as 13's and 14's while the dealer and everyone else get the 10's and Aces just like counting :sad:

I would imagine for HC'ing, a game with a 3% advantage has a lot of variance too (not totally uncommon to get around a 2-3% advantage with CC'ing at times, which is when your making your huge bets). Now a 10% advantage, that might be such a huge advantage that the variance is noticeably less?

My current play style is back counting ASM shoes. As a result most of my plays are in high counts. I still experience losing hand after hand. One of the reasons is sometimes the high cards were behind the cut card. Shuffle tracking should be able to locate the high cards, an obvious advantge over counting alone.

Unfortunately my local casino only has a hand shuffled 2 deck game and the shuffle procedure is untrackable (I am very sure of this).

 

[psyduck]

From what I have read, a blackjack player and a HC player betting the same kelly fraction will experience the same swings, but the higher the edge the faster the swings happen. By this I mean they both have the same chance of doubling or halving their bankroll, which may be different than "swings."

I am currently on a 1 month 43k(half of my all time high) losing streak, mostly on high edge games. I just came back from a trip where I lost 7/7 HC sessions, most on a game better (I think) than 3CP. Makes me think (briefly) about going back to counting or just playing easy HC games like 3cp or blackjack (if I can find it.) At least then I would know my edge and have full confidence in my play. My plan is to have a pro evaluate my game, and then keep on truckin. Next time I reach an ATH I will probably scale down to quarter Kelly. Let me tell ya, betting half kelly at high edge situations is a wild ride. The winning side of it is amazing though. My best 2 months this year I went from 30k to 80k. I still had some big losses during that time, had to play through 2 CTRs.

The numbers you described for your loss or win are certainly large for me. However a better gauge would be in number of unit (your smallest bet). Anyway, I would think hole carding should have the smallest variace. How can it get any better if you know the dealer's hole card?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

The numbers you described for your loss or win are certainly large for me. However a better gauge would be in number of unit (your smallest bet). Anyway, I would think hole carding should have the smallest variace. How can it get any better if you know the dealer's hole card?

HC can have rough variance because to get your max EV you are doing a lot of crazy doubling and splitting.

 

[Sharky]

...down about 175 units in the last 4 sessions.(17.5k) Max bet varies between 500-1000. ..

SPREAD!!!!! 1-5, or 1-10 is VERY WEAK at the $100 unit level...unless, of course, you are playing a RIDICULOUSLY GREAT game...how many times have you been backed off/86'd?....PUSH THE LIMITS!!!


KJ, all the best, bro...as you age you will realize your health IS your wealth!!!