SweetAxtion
Well-Known Member
Ken,KenSmith said:Edited to add: SweetAxtion, I posted this without re-reading much of this thread, and I now see that my original response may not have been responding to your thoughts as intended. However, leaving while you're ahead if you have an edge in the game simply means you are leaving profits on the table. If you think of your entire playing year as one long session, it may help explain the difference.
I've actually given thought to exactly what you've mentioned in regards as thinking of my 2005 run as one "long session". Hence, I do think about the truth to it that at any point I could start one big long losing session too. So it is true that there are times I could very well be leaving profits on the table, but then I also think about not wanting to burn any casinos that I play at by hitting them too hard day in and day out.
I take very seriously what others say in regards to the mathematics behind the game. That's why I don't understand it in regards to the win-loss ratio coupled with not falling into the negative in terms of my bankroll.My original response was:
"if the computer calculations... takes into account every situation..."
It sounds like you've probably heard explanations of this before, so I'll just answer yes, but you'll have to take my word for it.
Now just so we're clear...in my less disciplined play I've had losing years. I've been -30k, even, +15k the previous 3 years. Now I'm up 110k for this year.
I lose. What I mean is that I set my loss-limit for 10k. When that is gone I go home. I just find that I can surpass 10k in small increments ranging from 500 dollars to 2k a day long before I ever lose 10k in a single session. Hence the win-loss ratio of the past 4 years.What happens on those trips where you simply never get ahead? How big a hole do you dig when that happens? If you haven't had a trip yet where you've never been ahead, you haven't been playing for very long.
I'm sitting at 90% out of the past 57 visits to the casino this year, so I concede that this is the main reason why I'm sitting at the bankroll I've accumulated at this point.
However, normally for the previous 3 years I sit at 70-75%. So yes I've had many trips where I've lost money. I've lost HUGE money with a shoe where it sat with a true count of 20 to 30 for approximately 8 deals and lost every single hand in a row. All I could think about was there horror stories that you normally see printed in books.
These past 4 days have netted me 12k. I came close to losing my alotted 10k 3 out of those 4 times. So yes...I do think about it and that's why to be honest I'm already thinking and actively planning a business venture to use this good fortune and/or *retiring* so to speak while ahead and concentrate on playing poker instead where I regularly win there but for smaller amounts of cash
FWIW...I average about 180 visits to the casino per year. With the hit and run tactics though...perhaps I'm only there for less than 180 hrs a year as well. Maybe that explain alot too.