What's the impact of an inaccurate count?

[Reachy]

Hi

How detrimental is it if you are +/-1 out on the RC? What about +/-2 etc? If you think you've made a mistake what should you do? Flat bet and BS until next shuffle or make a guesstimate erring on the side of caution?

Cheers

Reachy

 

[ScottH]

Hi

How detrimental is it if you are +/-1 out on the RC? What about +/-2 etc? If you think you've made a mistake what should you do? Flat bet and BS until next shuffle or make a guesstimate erring on the side of caution?

Cheers

Reachy

What you should do is, PRACTICE more so you dont make mistakes!

 

[Reachy]

Everybody makes mistakes

How can you be sure that your count is correct? How can you gauge accuracy in a casino environment? At home if you count an entire deck(s) you know your accuracy because the count should be zero at the end. You don't have that info in a casino. Things can also happen in a casino that could distract you unavoidably or the cards get collected up too quickly for you to catch them all at some point, what do you do then? Flat bet until next shuffle or make a reasonable guess based on the information you are sure about?

Cheers

Reachy

 

[zengrifter]

what do you do then? Flat bet until next shuffle or make a reasonable guess based on the information you are sure about?

If you are practicing intently between trips, then just make the guess and continue. zg

 

[Reachy]

Thanks

Incidentally is there anyway of gauging how accurate your count is? Profit I guess would be a good starting point Any others?

Cheers

Reachy

 

[zengrifter]

Incidentally is there anyway of gauging how accurate your count is? Profit I guess would be a good starting point Any others?

Profit is NOT a good guage. Use practice/drill software like CV or NeUltra. zg

 

[Reachy]

Not heard of NeUltra

Have been contemplating CV for a while now but haven't heard of NeUltra. Can you tell me a bit more about it? I've googled it and nothing comes up other than links back to this forum!!!

Thanks in advance

Reachy

 

[zengrifter]

The best practice drills are provided by software, and I recommend one of these -

Ne Plus Ultra and Practicum by Victor Shelley
The most unique blackjack training software packages on the market today since it will improve your card counting skills. Includes drills to improve counting, true count conversion, deck estimation, play variations, count indices, etc. Use the built in count or create your own balanced or unbalanced count. Newer versions now include the companion Practicum "play" upgrade. Excellent graphics and includes several unique practice and analysis features. Now available on CD which includes the 70 page manual. Editor Note: This is a highly recommended and unique training tool and with the price drop (formerly $120) an absolute best buy! Until SmartCards was available I gave this software my Best Blackjack Training Tool award.

SmartCards by Extreme Blackjack
SmartCards provides the best card counting training available anywhere. It is not a home blackjack game, but a professional software tool that builds the skills you need to beat the game consistently. SmartCards does this by providing a large range of exercises and practice environments. It supports virtually any card counting system, with features not found in many other practice programs.

Casino Verite Blackjack,
The Casino Verite Blackjack software package is the best blackjack game and simulation software on the market. Contains over 100 rule and play variations and a database of over 890 rule sets in over 500 real casinos. This amazing software also includes maps to your favorite casino, different table formats, statistic logs and color graphs, tournament play, counting drills, voice recognition, custom strategies, unusual games and more. If the strategy that you use is not included, you can define your own in excruciating detail. Strategy, betting and Over/Under 13 strategies can all be user defined. Warnings and records of strategy violations are provided. New variations of Blackjack are supported, like Multi-action, Over/Under13, Red/Black, Double Exposure, Royal Match, Bust Out, Super 7's and Seven & 1/2. Editor note: Casino Verite Blackjack get's my pick for the "best" overall blackjack software package on the market. Outstanding!

 

[ScottH]

Have been contemplating CV for a while now but haven't heard of NeUltra. Can you tell me a bit more about it? I've googled it and nothing comes up other than links back to this forum!!!

Thanks in advance

Reachy

I just got CV and I am really impressed. It has an amazing amount of different options to use. There are so many things you can do to make practicing just like playing in your local casino. I highly recommend it.

I have never used NeUltra so I can't compare them, but zengrifter always has really good recomendations so you wouldn't be making a mistake by getting it.

 

[dacium]

I always err on the side of caution. If I think I mucked up the count or missed a few cards, I treat them all as bad.

At the end of the day it shouldn't be happening much.

 

[sagefr0g]

Hi

How detrimental is it if you are +/-1 out on the RC? What about +/-2 etc? If you think you've made a mistake what should you do? Flat bet and BS until next shuffle or make a guesstimate erring on the side of caution?

Cheers

Reachy

i usually guesstimate erring on the side of caution and or flat bet with just basic strategy when this happens to me.
Eliot Jacobson wrote a very interesting chapter on the true cost of making a mistake in his book The Blackjack Zone chapter 43. he tells of his own experience as a young and new counter and making mistakes and being evaluated by an old pro. he also analyses five types of mistakes.
1 completely forgetting the count
2 transposing the count from positive to negative and vice a versa
3 not converting the TC correctly
4 using the wrong basic strategy play
5 adding up the value of a hand incorrectly and calling for a hit/double/stand at the worng time
what was interesting about his conclusions on the affect of these mistakes was essentially yeah it's not a good thing to make these mistakes but if it's just a thing that happens occasionally it's really no big deal. the idea is that what is important is manifested in the long run or the blackjack zone as Elliot calls it. my conclusion is as long as your not off on the count consistantly in the long run then it's no biggie.
best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[zengrifter]

Ed Thorp wrote the same conclusion in '61 - if the errors are occassional and random (ie, not chronic) the have virtually no effect on the overall results. zg

 

[sagefr0g]

is there room for (thought) decision making in blackjack?

Ed Thorp wrote the same conclusion in '61 - if the errors are occassional and random (ie, not chronic) the have virtually no effect on the overall results. zg

i often wonder if there is room for intuition, hunchs, intelligent guessing and thought for advantage play blackjack. the conventional wisdom is that there is not. as advantage players we know the importance of sticking to the game plan. none the less one has to wonder if strategic thinking, intuition, hunchs and intelligent guessing plays a part in successful endeavors that we make in the rest of our world decisions that is dominated by entropy why not blackjack too?
well it certainly doesn't work for ploppies in the blackjack zone. but what about us advantage players? we do know that a well placed mistake can give us good camo with out hurting our bottom line significantly. so what if we use a well placed 'mistake' at a time that it both provides camo and answers some call for intuition, hunchs, intelligent guessing and strategic thinking? the art of such a tact i should think would be in making such moves an extremly rare ploy.
curious as to what others think on this matter.
best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[zengrifter]

i often wonder if there is room for intuition, hunchs, intelligent guessing and thought for advantage play blackjack. the conventional wisdom is that there is not. as advantage players we know the importance of sticking to the game plan. none the less one has to wonder if strategic thinking, intuition, hunchs and intelligent guessing plays a part in successful endeavors that we make in the rest of our world decisions that is dominated by entropy why not blackjack too?

See Zengrifter Interview. zg
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/interviews.php

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Possible, but with a subtle differentiation from the ordinary sense of "hunches"

i often wonder if there is room for intuition, hunchs, intelligent guessing and thought for advantage play blackjack. the conventional wisdom is that there is not. as advantage players we know the importance of sticking to the game plan. none the less one has to wonder if strategic thinking, intuition, hunchs and intelligent guessing plays a part in successful endeavors that we make in the rest of our world decisions that is dominated by entropy why not blackjack too?
well it certainly doesn't work for ploppies in the blackjack zone. but what about us advantage players? we do know that a well placed mistake can give us good camo with out hurting our bottom line significantly. so what if we use a well placed 'mistake' at a time that it both provides camo and answers some call for intuition, hunchs, intelligent guessing and strategic thinking? the art of such a tact i should think would be in making such moves an extremly rare ploy.
curious as to what others think on this matter.
best regards,
mr fr0g

I do not believe that the human mind has the power to discern the value of the next card in the shoe, using intuition.

However, if certain theories about human consciousness are true, then it is possible we may have a link to our reaction to that card in the future when it is dealt. This is something that is probably more suited to the Zen Zone than the Blackjack Zone, and I do not want to give anyone the idea of going out there and playing hunches when money is involved. Many scientists believe that the human mind functions using physical principles not observed in the rest of the world and that this is related to the fact that certain events seem to require a human observer to occur. Our minds may not be limited by the temporal property of causality (the need for cause to precede effect) which would indicate the possibility of our knowing our reaction to a card before we see it.

This question may be answered someday by a grand and wonderful experiment, but please do not try this at the blackjack table! Play the indices, bet the count!

 

[zengrifter]

I do not want to give anyone the idea of going out there and playing hunches when money is involved.

I only go so far as to say that in those often present "wide-border" count zones it is quite acceptable to lean towards intuition (for play or bet decisions), since statistically it wont hurt. zg

 

[TENNBEAR]

I am guilty of losing the count from time to time, and I am certain most counters do, I will usally just flat bet until the next shuffle.
I fight the urge to follow hunches, I get into trouble every time. I will lead out with a intermidiate size bet on the first hand after a fresh shuffle if the dealer busted on the last hand of the last shuffle, this is done for camo. All the rest is done sticking to the program.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

The wonders of the True Count Theorem

I am guilty of losing the count from time to time, and I am certain most counters do, I will usally just flat bet until the next shuffle.
I fight the urge to follow hunches, I get into trouble every time. I will lead out with a intermidiate size bet on the first hand after a fresh shuffle if the dealer busted on the last hand of the last shuffle, this is done for camo. All the rest is done sticking to the program.

If you lose the count, the best thing to do is: 1) assume the true count is the same as the last point where you are sure you knew the count. 2) Calculate a running count based on that true count and the current number of decks, and 3) start counting at this point, using the running count you just concocted.

Why does this work? The True Count Theorem states that on the average, the true count never changes throughout the shoe. Sounds silly at first glance, but picture it this way: Let's say you are playing, and the true count is +3. The dealer could grab the next round of cards from any place in the shoe, and you would still treat it as a +3 count, because on the average that's what it is. It wouldn't matter if the dealer dealt the cards between where you were and where he grabbed the cards, or threw them in the trash can, you would still treat the cards he is dealing as +3.

All you really lose by losing count for a round or two is effective penetration, but we all know how valuable penetration is so you want to avoid losing count. But that is pretty good cover in 8D shoes, to skip a round away from the table, and come back and start spreading!

 

[sagefr0g]

See Zengrifter Interview. zg
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/interviews.php

yes i had read your interview previously. funny that it didn't fully register in my conciousness
as a link to my musing over this issue.

It seems you have broken away from the card counter “orthodoxy” over this and the
related use of intuition?
The hit-stand-double index for basic strategy departure is a wide-border “coin-toss” zone of
perhaps two digits, plus or minus. Therefore, I encourage the use of one’s intuition when the
decision is close. If decision by coin-toss will not reduce our effectiveness for these ever-frequent
wide-border decisions, does it not stand to reason that we can learn to increasingly utilize the
‘meta-awareness’ faculties of our brain and “go with the force,” so to speak, to potentially obtain a
subjective improvement over raw statistical expectation?
Consider for example, that while our conscious mind may not be aware of that extra 4 or 5 still
remaining in the deck, and not evident by our true count of +1 when we face 16 vs. 10, modern
science tells us that our brain did notice the hit-not-stand situation, despite a true count indication
to the contrary.

this is the sort of thing i was alluding to. i'm curious as to your use of the phrase "wide border".
i get the coin toss idea but i'd be interested to know what you mean by wide-border.
also can you explain further how modern science tells us that our brain did notice the hit-not-stand
situation, despite a true count indication to the contrary.

Can you give us some pointers about using intuition at the tables?
You may consciously play your hunch in the wide-border zone by taking a ‘prompt’ from your
‘adaptive-unconscious’ - that area of the brain-mind that processes and sorts an ocean of sensorydata
entirely without conscious awareness. One way that we can learn to take an ‘intuitive-prompt’
is via physical ‘cues’ – skin or other bodily sensations in particular have been proven to relay
intuitive resolution.
Zengrifter Interview – page 6
George Soros, the billionaire currency trader, uses pain sensations in his back to signal when to
buy or sell, beyond what all of the technical and computer analysis at his disposal might otherwise
indicate.
Additionally I believe that a counter’s intuition power, for use at the frequent wide-border decision
zones, can be increased dramatically through regular meditation. In fact, meditation offers
substantial physical-mental-spiritual benefits. One method that I have used for years, and
wholeheartedly endorse, is ‘Transcendental Meditation’ or ‘TM.’ The TM method requires just 20
minutes application morning and evening. Results are typically enjoyed within 1-4 weeks, and
increase with continued regular use

this may sound way off base. one cue that has served me well in life situations has been a sense of
righteous indignation (not anger). that is when faced with an unfair situation and you determine to stand
up against it the results are often that you come up winner. the art here is i think employing the old saw
wisdom is the better part of valor. certain aspects of blackjack are patently unfair so perhaps that slight
edge is there in that regard. i've employed a meditative approach for a good bit of my life. it does
help to clear the nonsense out of your mind so you can see situations more clearly and hopefully make
better decisions.

best regards,
mr fr0g

 

[sagefr0g]

I do not believe that the human mind has the power to discern the value of the next card in the shoe, using intuition.

However, if certain theories about human consciousness are true, then it is possible we may have a link to our reaction to that card in the future when it is dealt. This is something that is probably more suited to the Zen Zone than the Blackjack Zone, and I do not want to give anyone the idea of going out there and playing hunches when money is involved. Many scientists believe that the human mind functions using physical principles not observed in the rest of the world and that this is related to the fact that certain events seem to require a human observer to occur. Our minds may not be limited by the temporal property of causality (the need for cause to precede effect) which would indicate the possibility of our knowing our reaction to a card before we see it.

This question may be answered someday by a grand and wonderful experiment, but please do not try this at the blackjack table! Play the indices, bet the count!

i agree with you.
for those of us who must live with a limited bankroll advantage play as i understand it will allways carry a gamble. it's the gamble that i hold forth the hope that intuition, strategic thinking and creativity can put a dent in. call me a hopeless romantic but i just can't help but dream about somehow dancing between the statistical rain drops. :joker:
the thing about negative and positive fluctuation is that it is has a wave like function aspect to it. it makes one think that it should be understandable to the point where it could be tamed or at least dealt with other than just throwing money at it.
best regards,
mr fr0g