When in the hand to adjust the count?

[halcyon1234]

Hi,

I was practicing counting on the kitchen table today (getting the gears oiled back up), when I hit a situation that I didn't know the answer to.

The RC is borderline right between TC +3 and TC +2. I deal the hand, I get two faces, and the dealer gets an ace upcard. I ask myself, do I want insurance.

Well sure, it's TC+3.

But wait-- I count the three -1 on the table, and realize that if I factor those in, the TC is +2.

So-- do I take insurance or not? I guess the same would apply for any index play. Do you take into account the TC before the cards were dealt, or after?

 

[rollem411]

Hi,

I was practicing counting on the kitchen table today (getting the gears oiled back up), when I hit a situation that I didn't know the answer to.

The RC is borderline right between TC +3 and TC +2. I deal the hand, I get two faces, and the dealer gets an ace upcard. I ask myself, do I want insurance.

Well sure, it's TC+3.

But wait-- I count the three -1 on the table, and realize that if I factor those in, the TC is +2.

So-- do I take insurance or not? I guess the same would apply for any index play. Do you take into account the TC before the cards were dealt, or after?

I actually first posted stating that you should count the cards on the table and treat it is a +2 count. However, after thinking about what I said I would treat it as a +3 count because the dealer received his card at a +3 count. I would take the insurance.

If it were with other index plays I would treat it as +2. For example, I use Zen and the index play for 12 v 4 is stand at anything >=0...I'm not sure about what it is for Hi-Lo. Lets say you are playing with you and one other person at the table. The count before the deal is at TC 0. Then you are dealt a 10,4 and the other guy is dealt 10,10...and the dealer is showing 4. For hi-lo and zen counts this would be a decrease in TC, bringing it below the stand index point. I would count the cards showing on the table because it is more advantageous to you when you count these cards. In the insurance situation, the dealer was dealt his hole card before all the cards were showing, which would make it different. I probably made a sh*tty example but I tried.

 

[21forme]

Use all the cards you have info about, therefore don't take insurance.

 

[jack.jackson]

Use all the cards you have info about, therefore don't take insurance.

I agree with 21 form here, for this is correct.

However, on a side note here, on a close but "not quite" Insurance decision. It would actually be OK to Insure 1/4 your bet @ +2.

 

[rollem411]

Is that the correct way to play the hands statistically or is it just a personal decision?

 

[k_c]

Hi,

I was practicing counting on the kitchen table today (getting the gears oiled back up), when I hit a situation that I didn't know the answer to.

The RC is borderline right between TC +3 and TC +2. I deal the hand, I get two faces, and the dealer gets an ace upcard. I ask myself, do I want insurance.

Well sure, it's TC+3.

But wait-- I count the three -1 on the table, and realize that if I factor those in, the TC is +2.

So-- do I take insurance or not? I guess the same would apply for any index play. Do you take into account the TC before the cards were dealt, or after?

You should count your hand and dealer's up card. You can make a more informed insurance decision based upon the composition of your hand. Depending upon how many decks you are playing, the Hi-Lo indices for insuring T-T v A are:
1 deck: > +3.7
2 decks: > +4
4 decks: > +4.2
6 decks: > +4.2
8 decks: > +4.3

I have a lot of insurance data for 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 decks for Hi-Lo and KO on my web site if you can put up with my idiosyncrasies. For one thing, I view the tags of low cards as negative and the tags of tens and aces as positive. This makes no difference to the final result as removing a negative card makes the running count more positive and removing a positive card makes the running count more negative.

The links for the various numbers of decks for both Hi-Lo and KO are under Site Contents. The data was obtained by mathematically considering all of the possible subsets comprising various running count/penetration combinations and using a weighted average of them to compute the probability of drawing a ten given player's hand comp and dealer having an ace for the up card. It was a lot of work and will be of the most benefit for a fewer number of decks. As a example, insure A-A v A single deck at a Hi-Lo TC > -2.36 (yes minus.)

I can't easily use this to get playing indices because insurance just requires the probability of drawing a ten, whereas much more is needed in the case of playing a hand.

Edit: Just wanted to say above insurance indices were worst case TCs. In actuality each running count/pen combination has its own index, but to me that's overkill.

Hope this helps
k_c