Why they sweat?

[BrianCP]

Wait, black chip counters seriously don't get a crazy amount of heat at the Bellagio and other crazy large casinos just because of the whales? Crazy.

 

[Jack_Black]

Black chip counters can get away playing at places like the Bellagio since there are many bigger bettors.

to an extent. that doesn't mean, camp out, spread 1-50, wong in, or jump 1-2 hands.

 

[alwayssplitaces]

If there's someone betting $5000 a hand at your table, they're not going to notice a black chip counter. The table's still making money and they won't want to scare the whale away if he thinks he will be falsely accused of counting cards if he's winning. The $5000 bettor is expected to lose $25 a hand/$1250 an hour while the black chip counter with a $200 average bet is expected to win $2 a hand/$100 an hour. If they back off the counter at the table, the whale will be likely to leave too, and he might take all his action to another casino. Penny wise and pound foolish.

Of course, if the same black chip bettor is at a $5 table, with 5 players flat betting an average of $10 each and the black chipper betting an average of $200 a hand. The ploppies will lose (1% house edge assumed for ploppy strategy) $0.50 a hand in total and the counter will win the same $2 a hand. He'll get backed off after the first hot shoe since the table would be losing money.

 

[itrack]

One time at a large MGM casino, directly across the pit from me was a group of football players betting 10K per hand (and winning). Even though I was playing the "trap" game extremely agressively across the pit, I kept going until the other group cashed out. A few times before (playing less agressively) I was backed off at the same property.
Conclusion- Just playing at a big store like belagio won't help a whole lot (probably just a little bit) but someone betting 10K across you sure helps!

 

[blackjack avenger]

Big Bettor Camo

Just playing at a big store like belagio won't help a whole lot (probably just a little bit) but someone betting 10K across you sure helps!

I am fairly confident that spreading black in one of the larger strip properties and doing the same thing on boulder highway, one will get entirely different responses.

Also, at the bigger properties you will have other big bettors, which is what makes the larger properties safer. Much safer.

good cards:joker::whip:

 

[moo321]

I am fairly confident that spreading black in one of the larger strip properties and doing the same thing on boulder highway, one will get entirely different responses.

Also, at the bigger properties you will have other big bettors, which is what makes the larger properties safer. Much safer.

good cards:joker::whip:

You're very fixated on bet size, and I have to agree with Bojack that bet size is only a small factor in heat. Even bet spread may not be that important.

Much more important factors:

1. How sharp is the pit?
2. How sharp is surveillance?
3. Are you doing things that draw attention, like getting "checks play" called?

And assuming those locals joints have at least a $1k table limit, I bet I could get away with aggressive black action at at least one of them.

 

[aslan]

I don't think its really a case of the PC's sweating as much is it is the AP's. Most counters sweat there play way more then the PC's do. What I mean is, the overwhelming amount of heat AP's get is usually in their own head. And the small amount that does come their way usually only feeds their paranoia. Of course different shops have different tolerances, but all that means is so should the AP. But it seems that most fledgling counters as well as many more seasoned ones, seem to think that the pit is against you as soon as you sit down and that there is this need for all kinds of counter intelligence cloak and dagger maneuvering. I'll tell you what, if that was really the case, there would be no counters playing in the casinos. As a counter you are forced to do certain things in order to garner your advantage. This is a fact. There are slight variations to ways in doing these things at times, but it doesn't matter one way or the other they have to be done or else you squander your advantage. This gives the house the upper hand in this alleged cat and mouse game. If the PC's job was just that of catching counters, it would be very easy to do. But the fact is, its not. As a matter of fact most counters are caught by accident or by their own stupidity.

One of the biggest mistakes I have found in counters is what I call optimal steaming. Its basically chasing losses while still playing your game technically correct. Many counters will play sessions extra long if they are down to try and recover the session. For this reason you will find many backoffs coming in losing sessions. Odds are when a counter sits at the table, its only their little secret. Playing smart as well as having common sense and discipline will really aid in keeping it that way. Thinking the PC is there just to thwart you, is rather egotistical and laughable. But if you give them a reason to, they will happily oblige.

Interesting insights! I am one of those who tends to play long sessions, either steaming, or trying to achieve a preset profit goal, or trying to maximize profits for a given time frame. I have only been backed off once. But achieving longevity is not an easy task, and just maybe I don't have the answer, I just think I do. :laugh: My answer works for me (up til now); it may not work for anyone else.

First, I assume my game is being observed from the moment I begin to play. If you play rated, you should practice this by all means, because the casino gets to look at you over and over again every time you play and can reflect any thoughts about your play in computer notes for future encounters. Anyway, the benefit of playing as if you are being observed at all times puts an end to over reliance on your "feeling heat," although feeling heat is still an important factor. If you play as if observed it will cause you to stick to your "hit and run" strategy even though you feel no discernible heat. If you are a "play all" type player, with occasional wonging out, it will make you keep to your plan of camo, never letting your guard down.

I have learned to play a near break/even game while I wait for those "get well", long plus counts. When they come, I generally play them for all they're worth. This of course should, and sometimes does, create real heat. I have many forms of camo which I switch on and off to keep my game appearing sporadic and unrelated to plus counts-- some I have described in other posts, some I have not. I suppose it is impossible to perfectly camouflage card counting behavior, but I am not sure sometimes that I could catch myself.

Yesterday, I played about 13 or 14 hours of blackjack with only two intermissions, one for dinner, and one to play VP. The most notable piece of luck was when I was betting two hands of max bet, $200 each (8-deck, S17, DAS, DOA, 75-80% pen, ns)-- I received blackjacks on both, a $1,000 swing!

I switched tables several times. I think I was evaluated (maybe more than once), and either passed the test or was rated as not dangerous enough to be bothered with. At one time I had a dealer who seemed intent on keeping me in conversation, which I kindly obliged. I did think it was deliberate. It actually served to hone my attention which had been flagging so that I felt I was actually more on top of the count than previously. :grin:

The main reason I don't get backed off, I am sure, is that I don't threaten the casino with any serious loss. Playing $25 min will not exactly lead to riches. But $25 players do get evaluated, and so far they have deemed me worthy to continue playing. I only wish I had quit playing when I ran my profit up to $1,400. I played for several hours more, hoping to double that amount, but ended up with $200 less.

I think if they ever half-shoed me, I would continue playing my break/even game for a couple of shoes as if I didn't notice the house move. I am sure one of the ploppies at the table would begin complaining. If anyone asked me what I thought, I would tell them it didn't bother me, except I get tired of waiting for the hand shuffle to complete.