Winning night, luck right?

M

Montreal Casino

Active Member
So yesterday i went to the Montreal Casino, and left there with a profit of 850 bucks. I just want to make sure that this winning night was luck. I was backcounting tables for a while, (like maybe 2 hours), and the counts were always negative, so i eventually got fed up of counting and just decided to sit down at a table and play basic strategy. The table minimum was 15 bucks, and its maximum was like 300 bucks. I bought in for 150 bucks and just began playing basic strategy. To make a long story short, i was at that table the whole time, and i ended off with 1,000$ worth in chips. All i did was play basic strategy, and, i know this is a big no-no, i did the martiginal system. I would double my bet after each loss. Luckily for me, i never lost more than 3 hands in a row, and this is what made me so successful i guess. At one point i had 120 bucks out, (after 3 losses in a row), i got dealt pocket 7's vs a dealers 6. I split both 7's, ( now having 240 bucks out), and received 4's on both sevens. Therefore i doubled on both hands, and had 480$ out. However, i received like 5 and 6 on each hand, for a total of 16 and 17. I must admit, i was a little worried here, and my heart was pounding really fast by now. The dealer then flipped his whole card, which was paint, and ended up busting. That was my biggest hand of the night, and that's the hand that probably made me. So i just wanted to know that this was a lucky night for me right? If i go into the Casino again and again, and do what i did last night ( just play basic strategy coupled with the martiginal system), i will come out a loser right?

I know that it was most likely a very lucky night, and that i should not expect it to happen again, but it fealt good, and im hoping all my trips to the casino are like that one!

Anyways, i tried backcounting but the count never went positive, or positive enough for me to have an advantage, and that is why i just decided to play basic strategy. Next time however, i probably will not use the martiginal system because i know how bad it can get....
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
If you do this again tomorrow,you won't get the same results. You might get better results,or you might get worse results.In the long run-(ie Multiple trips),the casinos edge will overcome you,but in the short term,you might have good variance(luck).
There is nothing wrong with simply playing BS. It is a good system that will let you play for quite awhile with small losses.
The problem with a martingale is that it seems to work for a good amount of the time.As you saw,you suddenly had a huge bet out and needed luck to win.
Stick to playing BS,use your counting system and forget the martingale.If you must use a progression,google Oscars Grind.It is not nearly as much of a thrill ride as a martingale,but you'll lose less money.
 
M

Montreal Casino

Active Member
I understand, but when you stand around backcounting for 2 hours, and all you get are counts of negative 2,3 till positive 2,3... what am i suppose to do? am i suppose to just keep on backcounting until the count gets good for me? that takes forever. Especially with the Casino i go to, the rules are horrible ( 8 decks, 80ish percent pen, dealer hits soft 17).
 
S

ScottH

Well-Known Member
Montreal Casino said:
I understand, but when you stand around backcounting for 2 hours, and all you get are counts of negative 2,3 till positive 2,3... what am i suppose to do? am i suppose to just keep on backcounting until the count gets good for me?
Click to expand...
Yep.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Montreal Casino said:
I understand, but when you stand around backcounting for 2 hours, and all you get are counts of negative 2,3 till positive 2,3... what am i suppose to do? am i suppose to just keep on backcounting until the count gets good for me? that takes forever. Especially with the Casino i go to, the rules are horrible ( 8 decks, 80ish percent pen, dealer hits soft 17).
Click to expand...
like ScottH says ..... yep.
think of it this way if you are backcounting and no positive counts come up then you aren't playing right? can't lose any money that way can you? but if a positve count does present it is then that you have your best chance to make some money.
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
Yep, it was luck. Congratulations. Actually, it seems that the relative tight min/max limits at that table would make it even more likely to max out on a martingale strategy.

Did you say you were seeing TC's of +3 while backcounting? Just enter on those!
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
With an 8 deck game, you need to come in around +2 TC, and that's being picky. A lot of people come in a little over +1.
 
Mimosine

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
moo321 said:
With an 8 deck game, you need to come in around +2 TC, and that's being picky. A lot of people come in a little over +1.
Click to expand...
i shoot for a TC of 1.5 for 6D.
 
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