With special permission from the author
- Thread starter The Mayor
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zengrifter
Banned
Royal Match, anyone?
Does anyone have some guidelines for beating the Rmatch sidebet? zg
Does anyone have some guidelines for beating the Rmatch sidebet? zg
observations on panama rick's findings
Hello Friends,
I did some quick calculations on panama rick's findings. I was interested in what the aggregate effect of the lucky ladies side bet is on the game assuming you only make this bet when it is a positive expectation. The lucky ladies bet as a positive expectation bet occurs 1.54% of the time. Assuming that you bet the count X 1 unit on the lucky ladies bet, the overall edge of the lucky ladies bet is 7.84%.
I am trying to figure out what the net effect of this is on the blackjack hand's advantage. I think the way to calculate this is to multiply the occurrence (1.54%) X the Ev (7.84%) which results in .12%.
If I did this right, then betting the lucky ladies bet only when it is a positive expectation bet and betting the count X 1 unit results in an increase in the players edge of the blackjack game they are playing of .12%. Hardly seems worth it.
In case I miscalculated something, I will show you how I arrived at this number:
number of occurrences X count X 1 = amount bet at that count
amount bet at that count X Ev = amount won at that count
sum(amount won)-sum(amount bet)= total winnings
total winnings/sum(amount bet) = overall edge
overall edge X sum(percent of occurrences) = effect on blackjack game
Unless I am totally off somewhere here, it seems like a waste of time.
Steve
Hello Friends,
I did some quick calculations on panama rick's findings. I was interested in what the aggregate effect of the lucky ladies side bet is on the game assuming you only make this bet when it is a positive expectation. The lucky ladies bet as a positive expectation bet occurs 1.54% of the time. Assuming that you bet the count X 1 unit on the lucky ladies bet, the overall edge of the lucky ladies bet is 7.84%.
I am trying to figure out what the net effect of this is on the blackjack hand's advantage. I think the way to calculate this is to multiply the occurrence (1.54%) X the Ev (7.84%) which results in .12%.
If I did this right, then betting the lucky ladies bet only when it is a positive expectation bet and betting the count X 1 unit results in an increase in the players edge of the blackjack game they are playing of .12%. Hardly seems worth it.
In case I miscalculated something, I will show you how I arrived at this number:
number of occurrences X count X 1 = amount bet at that count
amount bet at that count X Ev = amount won at that count
sum(amount won)-sum(amount bet)= total winnings
total winnings/sum(amount bet) = overall edge
overall edge X sum(percent of occurrences) = effect on blackjack game
Unless I am totally off somewhere here, it seems like a waste of time.
Steve
Re: Royal Match, anyone?
Zen,
There are two options for counting this game, count all the suits and keep a side count of the Q and K. Here is a simpler "rule of thumb".
Assuming that you are not "side counting" the Q and K and are going to assume that they have a 52 card distribution throughout play the following apply to the easy match:
If any one of the suits is half or more of the remaining cards and NONE of the other suits has been depleted, then you have about a 5% edge or more depending on how many total cards are left.
If any one of the suits is totally depleted then you have at least a 7% edge depending on how many total cards are left.
If any TWO of the suits is totally depleted then you have at least a 56% edge! depending on how many total cards are left.
Of course is any three of the suits is totally depleted then you bet table maximum.
I leave it to someone else to calculate the probabilities of any of the four situations above occurring.
Steve
Zen,
There are two options for counting this game, count all the suits and keep a side count of the Q and K. Here is a simpler "rule of thumb".
Assuming that you are not "side counting" the Q and K and are going to assume that they have a 52 card distribution throughout play the following apply to the easy match:
If any one of the suits is half or more of the remaining cards and NONE of the other suits has been depleted, then you have about a 5% edge or more depending on how many total cards are left.
If any one of the suits is totally depleted then you have at least a 7% edge depending on how many total cards are left.
If any TWO of the suits is totally depleted then you have at least a 56% edge! depending on how many total cards are left.
Of course is any three of the suits is totally depleted then you bet table maximum.
I leave it to someone else to calculate the probabilities of any of the four situations above occurring.
Steve
you could bet more than TC X 1 unit on the LL
Mayor,
I used a bet size of TC X 1 U for both the blackjack bet and the LL bet based on the rule that you cannot bet more on the LL bet than on the blackjack bet, and wishing to optimize he blackjack Ev. I think, though, that you could bet more on the LL bet, but I'm not sure how to figure out what the optimal bet size would be, because when you bet more on the LL bet, then you have to be the same amount on the blackjack bet and you will be overbetting the blackjack bet. I'm not sure how to calculate the effect of betting optimal bet size on the LL bet while overbetting the blackjack bet.
Since the Ev gets very high at very high TC for the LL bet, the overall Ev for the LL bet could be increased by betting an optimal bet size for the LL bet. Then, of course you would have to deduct the negative impact of overbetting the blackjack bet.
Any ideas, anyone?
Thanks,
Steve
Mayor,
I used a bet size of TC X 1 U for both the blackjack bet and the LL bet based on the rule that you cannot bet more on the LL bet than on the blackjack bet, and wishing to optimize he blackjack Ev. I think, though, that you could bet more on the LL bet, but I'm not sure how to figure out what the optimal bet size would be, because when you bet more on the LL bet, then you have to be the same amount on the blackjack bet and you will be overbetting the blackjack bet. I'm not sure how to calculate the effect of betting optimal bet size on the LL bet while overbetting the blackjack bet.
Since the Ev gets very high at very high TC for the LL bet, the overall Ev for the LL bet could be increased by betting an optimal bet size for the LL bet. Then, of course you would have to deduct the negative impact of overbetting the blackjack bet.
Any ideas, anyone?
Thanks,
Steve
Re: observations on panama rick's findings
I simulated this last year for a DD game with 90% penetration and it was only worth about $10/hour. A side count of 10s added something like $2 if I remember right. Nothing exciting, but enough to make a marginal game very playable.
I simulated this last year for a DD game with 90% penetration and it was only worth about $10/hour. A side count of 10s added something like $2 if I remember right. Nothing exciting, but enough to make a marginal game very playable.
Rules Clarification
I am not sure if these rules are the same everywhere, but in my area this side bet is not limited to the amount of your BJ bet. Most of the places here have $100 limits for both the BJ hand and the side bet, and it is not uncommon to see players betting table minimum of $3 or $5 on the BJ hand and place a $25 chip on the side bet. This results in some interesting scenes such as players cursing when they get a blackjack.
I am not sure if these rules are the same everywhere, but in my area this side bet is not limited to the amount of your BJ bet. Most of the places here have $100 limits for both the BJ hand and the side bet, and it is not uncommon to see players betting table minimum of $3 or $5 on the BJ hand and place a $25 chip on the side bet. This results in some interesting scenes such as players cursing when they get a blackjack.
to Coug Fan: a few questions
Coug Fan,
What casino did you see that in? Was the max bet for the LL bet the same as table maximum or something lower?
This makes the LL bet a whole 'nother matter if the bj bet doesn't have to match the LL bet. (Seeing $$ in his head).
Now I just have to hope that the pit boss' eyes don't pop out of her head when I have been flat betting the bj hand for table minimum all night and then put out that table maximum LL bet!! I can hear the dealer calling it out now "$2,000 bet on Lucky Lady" (at her $5 table). LOL
Thanks,
Steve
Coug Fan,
What casino did you see that in? Was the max bet for the LL bet the same as table maximum or something lower?
This makes the LL bet a whole 'nother matter if the bj bet doesn't have to match the LL bet. (Seeing $$ in his head).
Now I just have to hope that the pit boss' eyes don't pop out of her head when I have been flat betting the bj hand for table minimum all night and then put out that table maximum LL bet!! I can hear the dealer calling it out now "$2,000 bet on Lucky Lady" (at her $5 table). LOL
Thanks,
Steve
Re: to Coug Fan: a few questions
At the risk of irritating the Seattle, WA locals (people here are very protective).... This side bet has been around for awhile in the Seattle area (at least since I returned to the area last December). I usually only play in the mini-casinos here which all have a $100 limit on all bets. Most people do play less on the side bet than their BJ bet but it is not uncommon to see someone betting more on the side bet. Most of the mini casinos here have $2 or $3 minimum BJ tables with $100 maximums for both the BJ and the side bet (the side bet minimum is $1 everywhere).
The local Indial casinos have $250 maximums, but they also have the worst rules/pen in the state (No DAS on an 8 deck shoe, etc). The other limiting factor is that the maximum payout is $25,000. Given that the max payout is 1,000 to 1, you are giving up some EV anytime you bet more than $25. You could also exceed the max payout by getting 2 QH with $250 bet since that pays 125 to 1.
You would stand out if you did not play this bet on every hand, since most players who play it at all play it on every hand. It is similar to playing the lottery. Your numbers will hit the week that you didn't buy a ticket (ploppy Bull S---). If a player gets 2 QH and they didn't bet it that hand, they will keep talking about it the rest of the night.
Given this, the advantage play would be to either backcount shoes and wait for the 1.5% of hands that justify this bet (side counting QH is also helpful). Then jump in with an appropriate BJ bet (based on BR), and a table max side bet. Of course, you could also play SD or DD and vary your bets on the side bet. Betting $1 on the side bet will not look as obvious as skipping the side bet altogether.
At the risk of irritating the Seattle, WA locals (people here are very protective).... This side bet has been around for awhile in the Seattle area (at least since I returned to the area last December). I usually only play in the mini-casinos here which all have a $100 limit on all bets. Most people do play less on the side bet than their BJ bet but it is not uncommon to see someone betting more on the side bet. Most of the mini casinos here have $2 or $3 minimum BJ tables with $100 maximums for both the BJ and the side bet (the side bet minimum is $1 everywhere).
The local Indial casinos have $250 maximums, but they also have the worst rules/pen in the state (No DAS on an 8 deck shoe, etc). The other limiting factor is that the maximum payout is $25,000. Given that the max payout is 1,000 to 1, you are giving up some EV anytime you bet more than $25. You could also exceed the max payout by getting 2 QH with $250 bet since that pays 125 to 1.
You would stand out if you did not play this bet on every hand, since most players who play it at all play it on every hand. It is similar to playing the lottery. Your numbers will hit the week that you didn't buy a ticket (ploppy Bull S---). If a player gets 2 QH and they didn't bet it that hand, they will keep talking about it the rest of the night.
Given this, the advantage play would be to either backcount shoes and wait for the 1.5% of hands that justify this bet (side counting QH is also helpful). Then jump in with an appropriate BJ bet (based on BR), and a table max side bet. Of course, you could also play SD or DD and vary your bets on the side bet. Betting $1 on the side bet will not look as obvious as skipping the side bet altogether.