Wongout theory question

[Automatic Monkey]

Here's a problem I have. I Wong-out, and only rarely backcount. It's happened to us all countless times: you find a nice heads-up shoe game, and after a couple of hands, you're elbow to elbow with the muggles.

In a shoe game the number of players at the table isn't very relevant to your overall advantage as long as that number remains constant. The best thing that can happen to you is you are at a full table until you get a great count, then everyone else walks away and lets you play all the rest of that positive shoe yourself.

Conversely, the worst thing that can happen to you is that you eat up all the negative EV hands at the beginning of the shoe yourself, and once you get a nice count, here comes the crowd. I don't mean backcounters, I mean ploppies who see a nearly vacant table and decide this is a good place to sit down. Eats into the EV significantly.

Extending and applying this logic, it would seem that when Wonging around, the best thing to do is to sit at full or nearly full tables at the beginning of the shoe. Because at a full table the number of players can only go down as the shoe progresses. And again conversely, the number of players can only go up at an empty table.

So I'm now considering only sitting down at crowded tables when playing this strategy. Does anyone have any thoughts on this reasoning? Thanks in advance.

 

[zengrifter]

So I'm now considering only sitting down at crowded tables when playing this strategy. Does anyone have any thoughts on this reasoning? Thanks in advance.

The flaw is purely statistical - if there were an unlimited #tables to choose from your logic is correct. BUT with the real-world limitations the plus-counts are where and when you find them. Still its a good additional tool to lean with.

When I enter a movie theater, and other venues for example, I veer to the left - left aisles, etc. - beacuse more people veer to the right.

I saw a post recently about buying other peoples surrender stiffs. I'm a master at getting good hand partner doubles and splits - but now I see that its potentially stronger to buy bad hands for 50 cents on the dollar! zg

 

[SystemsTrader]

First a question for ZG. Can you explain how you profit from buying someone elses surrender hand?

AM here are two techniques I use which might help. First bring a friend who plays basic and stand behind them and backline when the count gets favourable, I've never ran into any heat doing this. The second technique I use if you are alone is find a busy low end table and befriend the other players and support their wins and losses. Then announce you are going to get something to eat and come back in 15 min. Backcount the table and when the count is good ask someone who is still there if you can bet on their hand. Amazingly they never say no! The only negative here is they get to choose how the hand is played so in some situations you must try to convince them. Recently I had to convince a guy to double an ace vs. a ten.

 

[ScottH]

First a question for ZG. Can you explain how you profit from buying someone elses surrender hand?

If they incorrectly want to surrender, it would be profitable for you to take it at half the bet. If someone is betting 10 dollars and gets dealt a hand that is worth 6 dollars, it would be correct for you to buy it from them for 5 if they plan on surrendering. Those numbers were made up, but I think you get the idea. At least this is how I think it works.

 

[Mikeaber]

Interesting! Your Dufus friend a couple of chairs in front of you has a 17 and the dealer is showing a Face. He has $20 bet and is about to surrender. The count is negative. You offer him the $10 which is no more or less than it would cost him to surrender. You stand. The dealer has a crap hand and draws to a bust and pays the hand at $20. You've paid $10 for the hand but you rake $40 off the table. I'd say that's a good strategy!

 

[zengrifter]

Interesting! Your Dufus friend a couple of chairs in front of you has a 17 and the dealer is showing a Face. He has $20 bet and is about to surrender. The count is negative. You offer him the $10 which is no more or less than it would cost him to surrender. You stand. The dealer has a crap hand and draws to a bust and pays the hand at $20. You've paid $10 for the hand but you rake $40 off the table. I'd say that's a good strategy!

The casino typically doesn't offer surrender - you simply offer the other player 50% of his bet. zg

 

[Doc]

I'm interested in learning more about this.

Edited: I answered my own question.

http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/article/here-are-bets-where-players-and-casinos-both-have-an-edge-5272

I enjoyed this quick article on the topic of buying surrenders.