You Ever Do This?

[aslan]

How often does one have a small bet out on the give up play, with a TC 5? So it seems this situation is very rare

If we look at the 2 hands in isolation one cannot put out their max TC 5 bet because of the negative EV of the give up hand. The same situation happens when one plays all, the negative bets drag overall EV down and the size of big bets. A pure Kelly player would have to adjust the big bet.

OP said it happened twice in past two weeks.

 

[blackjack avenger]

lightning, no bottle

OP said it happened twice in past two weeks.

Some people get struck by lightning twice. His doing it twice is about meaningless.

TC 5 give up bet is minimal
Next round is extremely positive
One knows for certain the play of the dealers hand, how many cards used
One knows for certain there will be one more round
One knows the math involved in the give up play & the next round

It's a mess

 

[blackjack avenger]

a ?

This happened twice to me in the last couple weeks..

Playing DD. Heads up count around 0, +1. Have a Min Bet out, Get dealt a 5 or 7 or something low against a Card that says Hit. I Hit, get a duece, Hit, Get a three, hit again get a 2 or 3 etc until I end up staying @ 15 or 16 v a 7 or 8 because I know the cut card is right there and I want to get a hand in with a Big bet on the Now + count. I have done this twice recently and it worked out both times to where I lost the small bet and won the big bet which was the last hand. Prob not the best idea for cover though.

Without factoring in the red flags I am assuming this is a +EV play but just curious if anyone ever figured it.

Thanks.

What is your ror?
Better yet
Risk of drawdown?

 

[Sucker]

Some people get struck by lightning twice. His doing it twice is about meaningless.

TC 5 give up bet is minimal
Next round is extremely positive
One knows for certain the play of the dealers hand, how many cards used
One knows for certain there will be one more round
One knows the math involved in the give up play & the next round

Not at all meaningless. ALL of these criteria come quite often in double deck, and they come up with regularity in the few single deck games that are left on the planet.

 

[Sonny]

No difference; the words are interchangeable.
EV (expected value) = equity.

I could just as easily have worded it THIS way:
"The penalty is not 7.5% of your BET, but 7.5% of your EV.
If you have a count of +5 and hit 16v8, your EV is about 50%. If you stand, your EV is 7.5% less, or 46.25%."

I'm still a little confused about this. Let's say you make a $100 bet and are dealt 15 vs. 8. If you stand then your EV drops from (roughly) -$41.741 to -$51.273 (those are from a neutral deck but they should suffice for this example). You have lost -41.741 - (-51.273) = 9.532% of your bet. You need to make up that $9.532 on the next hand. Whether you call it EV or equity the penalty is still 9.532% of your bet.

-Sonny-

 

[blackjack avenger]

impractical

Not at all meaningless. ALL of these criteria come quite often in double deck, and they come up with regularity in the few single deck games that are left on the planet.

The OP is not doing what you are doing.

The OP needs to know the penalty cost of many hands. There seems to be doubt between you and Sonny on one hand?
The OP needs to know with certainty the number of cards the dealer will use. This is impossible, so often the big bet is placed followed by the shuffle. Does the OP leave it? A big N0 damage or drag the bet back?

It's a big mess

 

[blackjack avenger]

seat of some pants, maybe that cute girl

This could work out in the field.

Consider the give up bet total loss
Quickly figure your EV of next hand.
The EV must be more then twice the give up bet.
EV over twice to compensate for when cards run out forcing shuffle

One makes money because the give up bet is not total loss and hopefully your correct on next round being dealt over 50% of time.

Quick, with no memorization of hand misplay penalties.

 

[aslan]

Some people get struck by lightning twice. His doing it twice is about meaningless.

TC 5 give up bet is minimal
Next round is extremely positive
One knows for certain the play of the dealers hand, how many cards used
One knows for certain there will be one more round
One knows the math involved in the give up play & the next round

It's a mess

Well, it does happen and is not as rare in double deck as you contend. And, sometimes at least, you must concede that you can know that it means the difference in another hand being dealt. It's a hypothetical anyway, and given the constraints, a +5 count and knowledge that taking a card will mean no new round, you cannot choose to hit even if that is the correct basic strategy move. As a practical matter, I see the same difficulties you do, but as a hypothetical, I think it is cut and dried.

 

[White Guy]

This does happen in DD more frequently than you think. Thanks for the insight.

 

[Sharky]

This happened twice to me in the last couple weeks..

Playing DD. Heads up count around 0, +1. Have a Min Bet out, Get dealt a 5 or 7 or something low against a Card that says Hit. I Hit, get a duece, Hit, Get a three, hit again get a 2 or 3 etc until I end up staying @ 15 or 16 v a 7 or 8 because I know the cut card is right there and I want to get a hand in with a Big bet on the Now + count. I have done this twice recently and it worked out both times to where I lost the small bet and won the big bet which was the last hand. Prob not the best idea for cover though.

Without factoring in the red flags I am assuming this is a +EV play but just curious if anyone ever figured it.

Thanks.

whitey,

your post suggests to me that you are not 100"% certain what the count is....HUGE mistake in s/dd...what was the pen?

 

[Gamblor]

This does happen in DD more frequently than you think. Thanks for the insight.

It's been known to happen in an 8 deck game, given the right condition.

 

[blackjack avenger]

semantics of rare

Rare is uncommon

If I say the scenario is rare
are you guys saying its common?

TC 5, minimum bet out
followed by TC 5
With a card before the cut card?
That's common?

 

[White Guy]

Running count of +1 Dealer has an 8 up. I get a 5, 3. Hit, get a 2, Hit get a 5. Less than 1 deck left. Count is now over +5.

Even if I had 4, 3. Hit and got a 7 and then a 2 the count is now > +4.

Theae scenarios are Not uncommon in my experience as of late.

 

[Gamblor]

Rare is uncommon

If I say the scenario is rare
are you guys saying its common?

TC 5, minimum bet out
followed by TC 5
With a card before the cut card?
That's common?

Some of it is just semantics, but its definitely something worth considering. Even in an 6-8 deck game with the right conditions its not some freak occurrence. I fully expect it to happen much more often than getting a hand that will split 3 times with a double on each (now that's rare). Heck even an oddball index split decisions like AA v A at -3 TC happens less frequently (at least in my experience). And some people claim they memorize hundreds of indexes for some reason.

I can only imagine in a DD or SD game, going from a negative or neutral count to a significantly high count in one hand happens much more frequently.

 

[blackjack avenger]

i forgot one

Rare is uncommon

If I say the scenario is rare
are you guys saying its common?

TC 5, minimum bet out
followed by TC 5
With a card before the cut card?
That's common?

You also have to act before the dealer. If there is one person behind you and they face a hit, they may not, it gets more shaky. Do you now play 2 cards off?:whip:

Dare I say very infrequet