You gotta have the guts!

[mjbballar23]

There's a fine line between guts and doh!! Fortunately tonight the guts paid off.

Started at £376 with a target of £400 for the session - 10-20 hands should do it I thought betting a £5unit.

Anyway I'm online so I can't count (even if I knew how) so it's all a bit sketchy.

Bankroll begins heading south as dealer starts turning stiffs into 21s with remarkable ease and pushing my BJs. My loss limit heads out the window and all my DDs are going wrong - 450,425,350,275,225,200,150,100 - double or quits hail mary - 200,175 ,150,175, 95,60,40,30,20,40,60,hail mary, 120, 150, 175, 200, 250, 275, 250, 300, 320, 340, 300, 310, 320, 350, 375, 385, 400

I tell you what the adrenaline was pumping - not the most disciplined session but we got there by hook or by crook.

Tomorrows target is £425 let's hope the ride isn't as bumpy.

Ok when we talk about having guts we mean getting the money out there when the count indicates you have the advantage and not letting voodoo thinking impact your decisions when things arent going the way they're suppose to. In your case your always at a disadvantage and are simply gambling against the house edge, your talking about a different kind of "guts".

 

[moo321]

There's a fine line between guts and doh!! Fortunately tonight the guts paid off.

Started at £376 with a target of £400 for the session - 10-20 hands should do it I thought betting a £5unit.

Anyway I'm online so I can't count (even if I knew how) so it's all a bit sketchy.

Bankroll begins heading south as dealer starts turning stiffs into 21s with remarkable ease and pushing my BJs. My loss limit heads out the window and all my DDs are going wrong - 450,425,350,275,225,200,150,100 - double or quits hail mary - 200,175 ,150,175, 95,60,40,30,20,40,60,hail mary, 120, 150, 175, 200, 250, 275, 250, 300, 320, 340, 300, 310, 320, 350, 375, 385, 400

I tell you what the adrenaline was pumping - not the most disciplined session but we got there by hook or by crook.

Tomorrows target is £425 let's hope the ride isn't as bumpy.

Please tell me you were clearing a bonus?

 

[Richard Pugh]

Not clearing a bonus but playing with previously accrued profit - started on 15th with £440 - so far aiming to make £25 per session 've cashed out 4 lots of £250 (£1000) and now have a bankroll remaining of £400.

I'm aiming to play (£25/session), 3/4 sessions per day) until I've made a profit of £1900 - so I've got £940 to go

 

[Richard Pugh]

Ok when we talk about having guts we mean getting the money out there when the count indicates you have the advantage .... In your case your always at a disadvantage and are simply gambling against the house edge, your talking about a different kind of "guts".

AKA Stupidity ?

 

[EasyRhino]

I'm aiming to play (£25/session), 3/4 sessions per day) until I've made a profit of £1900 - so I've got £940 to go

Comments like this make me die a little bit on the inside, every time.

 

[Richard Pugh]

Comments like this make me die a little bit on the inside, every time.

Sorry Rhino, didn't want to cause you pain

They make me die a little bit on the inside too as I know both from theory and practice it isn't possible to sustain a winning streak without AP and because the online rules incl. CSM an unbreakable edgeis formed which means you'll be going backwards in the long run.

Fortunately on this occasion I broke the house - and now I'm on the online wagon

Starting with £440 on 15th, I've played hundreds of hands in short little sessions hoping the variance Gods would be with me.

Every time I made a profit of £250 I cashed it out (to protect the bankroll from overbets) and today about 2hrs ago I cashed out my final £463 (after 6 interim cashouts of £250).

£440 into £1963 in 4 days, representing £1523 profit (my original target) and my intact £440 bankroll.

I doubt very much it could be repeated but I certainly don't intend turning £1963 into £440 (or worse) this time around.

For the future and based on what I've read here I need to learn to count/backcount and only play at land based handshuffled casinos.

 

[moo321]

Sorry Rhino, didn't want to cause you pain

They make me die a little bit on the inside too as I know both from theory and practice it isn't possible to sustain a winning streak without AP and because the online rules incl. CSM an unbreakable edgeis formed which means you'll be going backwards in the long run.

Fortunately on this occasion I broke the house - and now I'm on the online wagon

Starting with £440 on 15th, I've played hundreds of hands in short little sessions hoping the variance Gods would be with me.

Every time I made a profit of £250 I cashed it out (to protect the bankroll from overbets) and today about 2hrs ago I cashed out my final £463 (after 6 interim cashouts of £250).

£440 into £1963 in 4 days, representing £1523 profit (my original target) and my intact £440 bankroll.

I doubt very much it could be repeated but I certainly don't intend turning £1963 into £440 (or worse) this time around.

For the future and based on what I've read here I need to learn to count/backcount and only play at land based handshuffled casinos.

Why don't you just play for bonuses?

 

[Richard Pugh]

Why don't you just play for bonuses?

I've never really explored bonus whoring as on the face on it the wager requirement often seems to negate the reason to even try.

Taking the last casino I used as an example can you give a brief run through of the way to work out if it's worthwhile.

The terms of the intro bonus :-

100% cashmatch on your first deposit up to to £45 with a 65* wager requirement - in my humble maths that means you've got to 'bet' £2945 to win £45 which is like a Martingale from a very bad dream

Are you saying that based on a say .5% edge you flat bet the minimum (£2) close to 1500 times and hope the SD and variance keep you within .5% of your starting position i.e your ending bankroll is (deposit+bonus)*99.5%?

 

[moo321]

I've never really explored bonus whoring as on the face on it the wager requirement often seems to negate the reason to even try.

Taking the last casino I used as an example can you give a brief run through of the way to work out if it's worthwhile.

The terms of the intro bonus :-

100% cashmatch on your first deposit up to to £45 with a 65* wager requirement - in my humble maths that means you've got to 'bet' £2945 to win £45 which is like a Martingale from a very bad dream

Are you saying that based on a say .5% edge you flat bet the minimum (£2) close to 1500 times and hope the SD and variance keep you within .5% of your starting position?

Well, no, you multiply .5 by the wagering requirement to get the expected value. In the above scenario you're playing with something like a 60% advantage. Works like a charm. I know people that do nothing but casino bonuses, work maybe 10 hours a week and make a good living.

 

[Sonny]

The terms of the intro bonus :-

100% cashmatch on your first deposit up to to £45 with a 65* wager requirement - in my humble maths that means you've got to 'bet' £2945 to win £45 which is like a Martingale from a very bad dream

Yes you need to bet £2945 but you don't need to win £2945. Most of the time you will either win the hand or push it. Either way you are fulfilling the wagering requirements without losing any money.

Let’s look at the math behind your example above. You have to give them £2945 in action in order to get your £45 bonus. If the house edge is 0.5% then you will expect to lose £2945 * 0.005 = £14.73 for a profit of £45 – £14.73 = £30.27. You’re playing with a 67% advantage over the house (as opposed to the 1-2% advantage of a card counter).

As you said, the variance is also something you need to worry about. After playing 1473 hands (£2 each) you will expect to win/lose about £88.52 around 68% of the time and win/lose £177 about 95% of the time. Now if you were to play 295 hands of £10 each then you would win/lose £198 around 68% of the time and win/lose £396 about 95% of the time. As you can see, the swings get a lot bigger when you increase your bets and play fewer hands. If you want to play it safe, always bet the minimum and play as few hands as you can to qualify for the bonus. Sometimes you will lose all your money and other times you will win a lot more, but on average you will have a huge advantage over the casino and keep most of your bonus.

-Sonny-

 

[EasyRhino]

And if you play several hundred hands, you'll experience swings that are plenty wild without having to do any bet-resizing shenanigans.

 

[Kasi]

a good ol card counting trip sounds fun, il bring my golf clubs along to.

Mountaineer West Virginia?? i live all the way tucked up in BC that would be a pretty long drive.

Sorry la_dee_daa - me bad lol - don't know why I thought you were closer.

Blackjack and golf clubs - who could ask for more?

 

[Rats]

yesterday I was down more than $30k. First $15k, then $8.5k, then $9k... it was insane. I was ready to leave and take an early flight, but instead I took a nap, got up and withdrew $5k, bet it on one hand and won. then split the $10k between 2 hands, got a win and a blackjack. Split another $10k between 2 hands again and won both. Played at the $25 table for a couple hours and I ended up walking out of there with $40,100.

 

[zengrifter]

yesterday I was down more than $30k. First $15k, then $8.5k, then $9k... it was insane. I was ready to leave and take an early flight, but instead I took a nap, got up and withdrew $5k, bet it on one hand and won. then split the $10k between 2 hands, got a win and a blackjack. Split another $10k between 2 hands again and won both. Played at the $25 table for a couple hours and I ended up walking out of there with $40,100.

Are you going to at least learn basic strategy? zg

 

[EasyRhino]

yesterday I was down more than $30k. First $15k, then $8.5k, then $9k... it was insane. I was ready to leave and take an early flight, but instead I took a nap, got up and withdrew $5k, bet it on one hand and won. then split the $10k between 2 hands, got a win and a blackjack. Split another $10k between 2 hands again and won both. Played at the $25 table for a couple hours and I ended up walking out of there with $40,100.

I'm pretty sure there's not a lesson to be learned here.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Resizing to Riches

And if you play several hundred hands, you'll experience swings that are plenty wild without having to do any bet-resizing shenanigans.

bet resizing shenanigans?

 

[EasyRhino]

bet resizing shenanigans?

Yes, in this case, I consider card counting to be a "shenanigan". Any sort of betting system would count too. Anything that increases your bets at any time is going to increase variance.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Riches From Resizing

Yes, in this case, I consider card counting to be a "shenanigan". Any sort of betting system would count too. Anything that increases your bets at any time is going to increase variance.

Still don't understand you
Are you referring to Voodoo play?
or real card counting?

 

[Kasi]

I'm pretty sure there's not a lesson to be learned here.

I'm pretty sure there is.

Don't do that :grin:

So, if not clear, lol, in complete agreement with you.