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Me alegro mucho de haber encontrado su artículo. He intentado muchas veces explicar este punto a los jugadores y es exactamente como discutir de religión. Una vez que introduces los hechos en el debate, se cierran en banda (por favor, no te ofendas, no pretendo insultar la fe de nadie). A lo que todo esto se reduce es a que si quieres vivir de retrospectivas, de lo que hubiera sido posible y de lo que no habría sido posible, vas a tener una vida muy desgraciada.
Ken, I have a set of your cards and have CVBJ and a copy of Wong’s Professional Blackjack and when I compare all three using the same set of rules I get different indexes, (granted only off by one true count here and there) how do I decide which index is best ?
I spent a lot of time on my index numbers, and CVBJ was the tool I used. Indexes are affected by nearly every possible detail of the game, so slightly different assumptions will yield slightly different answers. And then there’s the fact that indexes affect each other. If you use your best current indexes to run a new set of indexes, the numbers may change slightly. I used this kind of iterative approach over and over again to have my indexes converge to what I think were the best values.
The good news is that a difference of a point here or there is very insignificant. But if you wanted perfect indexes, you could use CVBJ making absolutely sure every setting mirrors the games you are playing. Then generate a new strategy from those numbers, and generate the indexes again. And again, and again.
The simple answer of which index is the best is likely the ones on my card, unless your conditions are widely different from my assumptions. I would trust those, or indexes you generate yourself over the aging Wong indexes. A lot has been learned over the years since Wong did his work.
Ken,
Tengo problemas para entender el gráfico de desviación estándar/ganancia esperada. No estoy seguro de entenderlo bien. Así que después de 3 horas de juego, 68% del tiempo estarás ganando $191 o perdiendo $147, y 95% del tiempo ganando $360 y perdiendo $316. No estoy seguro de si esto significa que durante el juego, su resultado neto puede variar de 360 a -316, 95% del tiempo (terminando con un beneficio de 22,5$) O que después de terminar un juego usted podría estar en +360 o -316. Así que si juegas 150 manos (3 horas con 50 manos cada una) y que existe la posibilidad de que puedas estar en +360 o -316, entonces no tendría sentido contar cartas ya que la ventaja de contar cartas es insignificante como se muestra en este gráfico. ¿Podría por favor ayudarme a entender lo que me estoy perdiendo o entendiendo mal?
Como se describe en la lección, estos números son el rango de resultados esperados. 68% de las veces, su resultado después de 3 horas estará en algún lugar entre una pérdida de $147 y una ganancia de $191. Veamos el intervalo de 2 desviaciones típicas 95%: entre perder $316 y ganar $360. En otras palabras, si jugara 20 sesiones de tres horas, en 19 de cada 20 de esas sesiones esperaría caer en algún lugar de ese rango para esa sesión individual. Incluso entonces, una vez en las veinte sesiones, podrías esperar tener una suerte más extrema, ya sea buena o mala. En esa sesión, perdería MÁS de $316 o ganaría MÁS de $360.
Por supuesto, debo señalar que incluso aquí no se puede pensar en términos de resultados exactos. Se trata de promedios a largo plazo. Si realmente has jugado 20 sesiones, puede que no tengas ninguna sesión que quede fuera del rango 95%, o puede que tengas dos o tres sesiones que sí lo hagan.
En cuanto a la utilidad del recuento, sí, la ventaja es pequeña. En este caso, la ganancia esperada es de $22,50 para la sesión de tres horas. Si juegas MUCHAS sesiones de tres horas con estos criterios, tu ganancia media será de $22,50. Pero como muestran las cifras de desviación estándar, no será un camino de rosas. A veces ganarás $300, a veces perderás $300. Pero fíjese en que los rangos están un poco desplazados, de modo que las mayores ganancias esperadas son ligeramente mayores que las peores pérdidas esperadas. El conteo de cartas es un viaje largo y lleno de baches, y las ganancias tardan en superar el factor suerte.
Ken, Lets say I made a betting schedule for a particular game and rule set that I want to play. During the game the count goes high and stays high, I am losing big bet after big bet, variance is killing me, should I back off my high bets? stay and stick to my betting ramp? or just leave and start over at a new table?
The math doesn’t care whether you’re crushing the game, or getting crushed instead. The next hand to be dealt either has a positive expectation for the player or it doesn’t. So to optimize your long-term results, just keep firing away. But…
In real life, unless you’re pretty accustomed to the variance of the game, this can be tough to do. Psychologically, there are benefits to preventing a crushing loss of a huge chunk of your bankroll. If that describes you, it’s nothing to be ashamed of. If you are getting uncomfortable with the level of your losses, take a break. In these cases it’s really easy to get rattled and stop playing your best game. So even if the count is great, make your own decision whether you should take a break or not.
It’s also worth noting that I have been backed off a lot more frequently while losing than while winning. I think one of the reasons is that most normal casino players don’t sit there and take a beating. It looks out of place. This is also a legitimate reason for leaving the table even though the count remains good.
Thanks you always have the best real world answers. I appreciate your time. I am getting prepared for my trip to Las Vegas next week and am working on bringing my A game to the table. Thanks to you, my game just keeps getting better and more on track.
Digamos que soy el croupier y tengo dos jugadores, el jugador de la izquierda tiene 18 y se queda y el otro jugador de la derecha acierta 21. Como croupier tengo hasta 20. ¿Puede el crupier elegir quedarse y tomar las fichas apostadas del jugador de la izquierda. ¿Pero pagar al jugador de la derecha?
The dealer cannot CHOOSE to do anything. His rules are fixed. He must hit until he has 17 or higher, and then he must stand. Even if all the players at the table have 18, the dealer must stand if he ends up with a 17.
One complication: Most casinos now deal games with an extra rule about soft 17. In the “Dealer Hits Soft 17” games, if the dealer has a hand like (Ace,3,3), that’s a “soft” 17, and he must hit again. This is covered in detail in the article above.
In your particular example, the dealer of course must stand with a total of 20, and he will collect the chips from the player with 18, and pay the player with 21.
Win stop points can make you feel good about your chances, but they don’t actually affect the math of the game. If you are playing a losing game, they’ll save you a lot of money, because they reduce your play time. Conversely, if you are playing a positive-expectation game by accurately counting and betting with the count, a stop-win point (or even a stop-loss point) will cost you money for the same reason. Fewer hours of play equals fewer dollars of expected win.
Whoa here. I understand that varying one’s bet raises a red flag that you are probably a card counter. How does one camouflage bet variations to avoid being caught?
Not true. Your only true statement is embodied in the last sentence regarding splitting of Aces and tens. It does not matter one iota where one sits. Since the cards are not marked one has no way of knowing the value of the next card being dealt. It is true that the dealer has to take a hit with a 6 face up, but one never knows if the next card dealer takes is a bust card or a card that helps the dealers holding.
I’ve played 3rd base for many, many years. Have always used the standard basic strategy that improves one’s chances of winning. Many times I’ve agonized that the player to my right takes a hit and gets the card that would have been a perfect fit for my hand. But that’s just part of the game.
It is a good feeling to be sitting at a table where everyone knows how to play using proper strategy – – – everyone feels comfortable in this knowledge. Even if a newbie who doesn’t know how to play joins the table his presence has no effect on everyone else’s chances of winning; but it is exasperating.
I usually tell players to not bother with counting in tournaments, because there are so many other things you can concentrate on. But it is also nice to be able to make your riskiest bets when you know that the deck is rich in face cards and aces. To be honest, it probably helps less than you think. The percentage chance of winning a hand in plus counts is only a little higher than in negative counts. The difference is smaller than most counters realize. Check this out: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm
But if you feel that you can keep track of your opponents’ bankrolls and still keep a count for this purpose, it will help some. It certainly feels good to put that huge bet out and catch a blackjack! 🙂
Visite https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/tournaments/ y haz clic en "Editar configuración de búsqueda".
Pon "MS,LA" como estado, para restringir los listados sólo a Mississippi y Louisiana. Establezca las fechas que desee y haga clic en Buscar.
Me alegro mucho de haber encontrado su artículo. He intentado muchas veces explicar este punto a los jugadores y es exactamente como discutir de religión. Una vez que introduces los hechos en el debate, se cierran en banda (por favor, no te ofendas, no pretendo insultar la fe de nadie). A lo que todo esto se reduce es a que si quieres vivir de retrospectivas, de lo que hubiera sido posible y de lo que no habría sido posible, vas a tener una vida muy desgraciada.
Ken, I have a set of your cards and have CVBJ and a copy of Wong’s Professional Blackjack and when I compare all three using the same set of rules I get different indexes, (granted only off by one true count here and there) how do I decide which index is best ?
I spent a lot of time on my index numbers, and CVBJ was the tool I used. Indexes are affected by nearly every possible detail of the game, so slightly different assumptions will yield slightly different answers. And then there’s the fact that indexes affect each other. If you use your best current indexes to run a new set of indexes, the numbers may change slightly. I used this kind of iterative approach over and over again to have my indexes converge to what I think were the best values.
The good news is that a difference of a point here or there is very insignificant. But if you wanted perfect indexes, you could use CVBJ making absolutely sure every setting mirrors the games you are playing. Then generate a new strategy from those numbers, and generate the indexes again. And again, and again.
The simple answer of which index is the best is likely the ones on my card, unless your conditions are widely different from my assumptions. I would trust those, or indexes you generate yourself over the aging Wong indexes. A lot has been learned over the years since Wong did his work.
Thanks, great answer, I am now very comfortable to continuing memorizing and using the indexes from you cards.
Ken,
Tengo problemas para entender el gráfico de desviación estándar/ganancia esperada. No estoy seguro de entenderlo bien. Así que después de 3 horas de juego, 68% del tiempo estarás ganando $191 o perdiendo $147, y 95% del tiempo ganando $360 y perdiendo $316. No estoy seguro de si esto significa que durante el juego, su resultado neto puede variar de 360 a -316, 95% del tiempo (terminando con un beneficio de 22,5$) O que después de terminar un juego usted podría estar en +360 o -316. Así que si juegas 150 manos (3 horas con 50 manos cada una) y que existe la posibilidad de que puedas estar en +360 o -316, entonces no tendría sentido contar cartas ya que la ventaja de contar cartas es insignificante como se muestra en este gráfico. ¿Podría por favor ayudarme a entender lo que me estoy perdiendo o entendiendo mal?
-Regards.
Como se describe en la lección, estos números son el rango de resultados esperados. 68% de las veces, su resultado después de 3 horas estará en algún lugar entre una pérdida de $147 y una ganancia de $191. Veamos el intervalo de 2 desviaciones típicas 95%: entre perder $316 y ganar $360. En otras palabras, si jugara 20 sesiones de tres horas, en 19 de cada 20 de esas sesiones esperaría caer en algún lugar de ese rango para esa sesión individual. Incluso entonces, una vez en las veinte sesiones, podrías esperar tener una suerte más extrema, ya sea buena o mala. En esa sesión, perdería MÁS de $316 o ganaría MÁS de $360.
Por supuesto, debo señalar que incluso aquí no se puede pensar en términos de resultados exactos. Se trata de promedios a largo plazo. Si realmente has jugado 20 sesiones, puede que no tengas ninguna sesión que quede fuera del rango 95%, o puede que tengas dos o tres sesiones que sí lo hagan.
En cuanto a la utilidad del recuento, sí, la ventaja es pequeña. En este caso, la ganancia esperada es de $22,50 para la sesión de tres horas. Si juegas MUCHAS sesiones de tres horas con estos criterios, tu ganancia media será de $22,50. Pero como muestran las cifras de desviación estándar, no será un camino de rosas. A veces ganarás $300, a veces perderás $300. Pero fíjese en que los rangos están un poco desplazados, de modo que las mayores ganancias esperadas son ligeramente mayores que las peores pérdidas esperadas. El conteo de cartas es un viaje largo y lleno de baches, y las ganancias tardan en superar el factor suerte.
Ken, Lets say I made a betting schedule for a particular game and rule set that I want to play. During the game the count goes high and stays high, I am losing big bet after big bet, variance is killing me, should I back off my high bets? stay and stick to my betting ramp? or just leave and start over at a new table?
The math doesn’t care whether you’re crushing the game, or getting crushed instead. The next hand to be dealt either has a positive expectation for the player or it doesn’t. So to optimize your long-term results, just keep firing away. But…
In real life, unless you’re pretty accustomed to the variance of the game, this can be tough to do. Psychologically, there are benefits to preventing a crushing loss of a huge chunk of your bankroll. If that describes you, it’s nothing to be ashamed of. If you are getting uncomfortable with the level of your losses, take a break. In these cases it’s really easy to get rattled and stop playing your best game. So even if the count is great, make your own decision whether you should take a break or not.
It’s also worth noting that I have been backed off a lot more frequently while losing than while winning. I think one of the reasons is that most normal casino players don’t sit there and take a beating. It looks out of place. This is also a legitimate reason for leaving the table even though the count remains good.
Thanks you always have the best real world answers. I appreciate your time. I am getting prepared for my trip to Las Vegas next week and am working on bringing my A game to the table. Thanks to you, my game just keeps getting better and more on track.
Last hand ,equal amount and your first to bet; force them with all ( save 5) just in case of an insurance bet.
Digamos que soy el croupier y tengo dos jugadores, el jugador de la izquierda tiene 18 y se queda y el otro jugador de la derecha acierta 21. Como croupier tengo hasta 20. ¿Puede el crupier elegir quedarse y tomar las fichas apostadas del jugador de la izquierda. ¿Pero pagar al jugador de la derecha?
The dealer cannot CHOOSE to do anything. His rules are fixed. He must hit until he has 17 or higher, and then he must stand. Even if all the players at the table have 18, the dealer must stand if he ends up with a 17.
One complication: Most casinos now deal games with an extra rule about soft 17. In the “Dealer Hits Soft 17” games, if the dealer has a hand like (Ace,3,3), that’s a “soft” 17, and he must hit again. This is covered in detail in the article above.
In your particular example, the dealer of course must stand with a total of 20, and he will collect the chips from the player with 18, and pay the player with 21.
WIN WALK 30 AND OUT WORKS WELL….PICK A GET OUTPOINT…FOLLOW THE SAME GAME..SAME RULES..WHEN YO SAY WIN WALK DO IT
Win stop points can make you feel good about your chances, but they don’t actually affect the math of the game. If you are playing a losing game, they’ll save you a lot of money, because they reduce your play time. Conversely, if you are playing a positive-expectation game by accurately counting and betting with the count, a stop-win point (or even a stop-loss point) will cost you money for the same reason. Fewer hours of play equals fewer dollars of expected win.
Whoa here. I understand that varying one’s bet raises a red flag that you are probably a card counter. How does one camouflage bet variations to avoid being caught?
Not true. Your only true statement is embodied in the last sentence regarding splitting of Aces and tens. It does not matter one iota where one sits. Since the cards are not marked one has no way of knowing the value of the next card being dealt. It is true that the dealer has to take a hit with a 6 face up, but one never knows if the next card dealer takes is a bust card or a card that helps the dealers holding.
I’ve played 3rd base for many, many years. Have always used the standard basic strategy that improves one’s chances of winning. Many times I’ve agonized that the player to my right takes a hit and gets the card that would have been a perfect fit for my hand. But that’s just part of the game.
It is a good feeling to be sitting at a table where everyone knows how to play using proper strategy – – – everyone feels comfortable in this knowledge. Even if a newbie who doesn’t know how to play joins the table his presence has no effect on everyone else’s chances of winning; but it is exasperating.
I usually tell players to not bother with counting in tournaments, because there are so many other things you can concentrate on. But it is also nice to be able to make your riskiest bets when you know that the deck is rich in face cards and aces. To be honest, it probably helps less than you think. The percentage chance of winning a hand in plus counts is only a little higher than in negative counts. The difference is smaller than most counters realize. Check this out:
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm
But if you feel that you can keep track of your opponents’ bankrolls and still keep a count for this purpose, it will help some. It certainly feels good to put that huge bet out and catch a blackjack! 🙂
Does counting cards have any effect on our play because it does mine I’ve had great success with Ken customs counting strategy s
Visite https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/tournaments/ y haz clic en "Editar configuración de búsqueda".
Pon "MS,LA" como estado, para restringir los listados sólo a Mississippi y Louisiana. Establezca las fechas que desee y haga clic en Buscar.
¿Dónde puedo encontrar una lista de torneos de blackjack en la costa del golfo