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Buy insurance at a true count of +3. (+2 in single deck.)
Split TTv5 at +5. Split TTv6 at +4. However, ten splits probably aren’t worth the extra attention they draw for most players.
Whether it’s worth splitting tens or not really depends on where you are playing, and how likely you are to have trouble because of it. If it causes you to get backed off, it’s certainly not worth it, no matter the count.
I don’t have surrender index numbers handy at the moment, so I’m no help on the latter question.
You also ask in another comment about whether you should play one hand or multiple hands at TC+10. Spreading to multiple hands has lots of benefits, so if you can, it’s probably a good thing. You don’t need a rare true count of +10 to do it either. 🙂
“Backed off” means you get the tap on your shoulder, and are told you can play other games, but are no longer allowed to play blackjack. If you are playing the game with an advantage, you can count on this happening sometime in your career, probably pretty early. It’s a cat and mouse game.
HI KEN!what is the meaning of advantage?for example,when true count is 5 the advantage is 2.0%x76%,equal to 1.5%,is that means we have 51.5%/48.5% Winrate,or just 50.75%/49.25% winrate?thank you very much!
Don’t bother trying to think about blackjack in terms of win rates, because it’s more complicated than that.
If we were betting on a coin flip, then an advantage of 1.5% would imply 50.75%/49.25%. But with blackjack your win rate never reaches 50%. You make your extra money because of splits, doubles and blackjacks. It’s complicated. Just know that if you have an edge of 1.5%, your expected long-run profit is $1.50 for every $100 you bet.
The advantage increases by 0.5% per true count. I can see that the table above is a bit confusing. Under the advantage column, just ignore the “X 0.76%” part. That just shows how he is converting the advantage at each true count to the optimal bet which is shown in the final columns. The 0.76% comes from the Kelly ratio based on the variance of blackjack.
Hi ken !!thanks for the advise.after only one week of hard training i can keep follow easy the rc and many times to estimate the correct amount of cards that are in the tray so i am going to stick to the hi-lo.i see now how logical was your words that in now time the maximum target is just to make the correct betting for each hand based on the tc.after when i will be ready i will start thinking of deviations in b.s based on the index numbers.thanks for the response
Ken Smith hola de nuevo.lo siento si escribo en una sección equivocada pero quiero preguntar dos cosas.cuando el recuento real es alto y es el momento para nosotros para apostar como contadores de espalda o apostar más como los jugadores en la mesa y hay tres o cinco bases / jugadores que apostar donde para obtener mejores resultados ?primera base?La segunda pregunta que he leído que para sobrevivir a la carrera larga y jugar toda la buena suerte y la mala suerte que necesitamos 50 veces la apuesta máxima. si decido jugar apuesta plana de 5dollars significa que necesito 250 dólares. derecho? en esta cantidad de dinero fynny lo que el beneficio por hora puede ganar? 000000¡¡.1 centavo ????.y por ultimo en otro post me contestaste que no es cuantas horas un contador puede jugar continuamente sino cuanto deberia jugar? por favor iluminanos. si juega mas o menos horas cuales son los resultados? gracias por tu tiempo!!
No importa qué asiento de la mesa elijas. La única diferencia es que, si se sienta en la tercera base, podrá ver algunas cartas más antes de tomar una decisión. Pero ese efecto es menor.
En tu otra pregunta, preguntas por el bankroll necesario para hacer una apuesta plana $5, y cuánto beneficio te reportará. Supongo que te refieres a que jugarás sólo en cuentas positivas, de lo contrario, por supuesto, no habrá beneficio esperado. ¿Cuánto se gana por hora? No mucho. Según mis cálculos, una apuesta plana de $5 en recuentos positivos podría reportar unos 50 céntimos por hora de ganancia esperada. Y seguirás necesitando ese bank de $250 por el que preguntabas para capear los altibajos. Tu última pregunta sobre los resultados basados en horas, es una relación lineal directa. Con 10 horas ganarás 10 veces más que con 1 hora.
También cuando un jugador quiere jugar sólo con las matemáticas y superar la buena y la mala suerte no puedo entender cuánto tiempo se necesita en el juego continuo ... o debo pensar no en el tiempo, sino en las manos ... y no puedo entender si las tablas o el cazino tienen memoria unida ... quiero decir que si juego 10 días seguidos todos los días de 5 horas cada día y pierdo cada vez durante esos 10 días y decido ir después de un mes durante 10 días de nuevo de 5 horas cada día las matemáticas esos días tendrán que darme ganancias ????
All these with spread 5 /60 ????? If yes for each tc plus 1i raise two betting unit ?if was playing 10/100 spread that woud be twice times the numbers up?
Given that you were only spreading 1:6 in a six or eight deck game, you weren’t playing with an edge at all. And you were playing at a really big disadvantage when you switched to the 6:5 game. If you had instead been spreading maybe 1:12 in this game (and never played the 6:5 game), I would break down your $9K in profit as roughly $500 skill, $8500 luck.
You mention that you have mastered Hi-Lo, but it sounds like you still need to learn a lot. No worries, we all started where you are.
Just for reference, card counting will usually yield about 1 to 1.5 units an hour in expected profit. If you are spreading $25 to $300, that means making $25 to $40 per hour. Of course your actual results will be all over the place, easily up or down $3000 in a session.
Machine shuffles or hand shuffles don’t materially affect the game, except for more advanced techniques. Any trends you have noticed as a result are just noise.
No peek means that the dealer does not check for blackjack before the players complete their hands. It also applies in games where the dealer does not take a second card until all players are done. The reason it affects the strategy is because in the typical US-style peek game, players know for sure that dealer does not have a blackjack before making a decision to split or double down. In a no-peek game those moves are riskier against a dealer ten or ace, because you may lose all of the bets to a dealer blackjack.
hi admin!!when should we buy insurance?thank you so much~~
Buy insurance at a true count of +3. (+2 in single deck.)
Split TTv5 at +5. Split TTv6 at +4. However, ten splits probably aren’t worth the extra attention they draw for most players.
thank you very much!you are so kind!Do you mean split ttv6 is not worth even at a true count of 10?
besides, can you tell me when should we surrender while 17vs10 and 18vs10,A5vs10,A6VS10,A7VS10?thank you!!!!
Whether it’s worth splitting tens or not really depends on where you are playing, and how likely you are to have trouble because of it. If it causes you to get backed off, it’s certainly not worth it, no matter the count.
I don’t have surrender index numbers handy at the moment, so I’m no help on the latter question.
You also ask in another comment about whether you should play one hand or multiple hands at TC+10. Spreading to multiple hands has lots of benefits, so if you can, it’s probably a good thing. You don’t need a rare true count of +10 to do it either. 🙂
thank you so much!but what is the meaning of “If it causes you to get backed off”,can you explain it?thank you^^
“Backed off” means you get the tap on your shoulder, and are told you can play other games, but are no longer allowed to play blackjack. If you are playing the game with an advantage, you can count on this happening sometime in your career, probably pretty early. It’s a cat and mouse game.
hi Ken Smith!when we are at a true count of +10,we should play one bet or several bets in one game?thank you so much~~~~~
HI KEN!what is the meaning of advantage?for example,when true count is 5 the advantage is 2.0%x76%,equal to 1.5%,is that means we have 51.5%/48.5% Winrate,or just 50.75%/49.25% winrate?thank you very much!
Don’t bother trying to think about blackjack in terms of win rates, because it’s more complicated than that.
If we were betting on a coin flip, then an advantage of 1.5% would imply 50.75%/49.25%. But with blackjack your win rate never reaches 50%. You make your extra money because of splits, doubles and blackjacks. It’s complicated. Just know that if you have an edge of 1.5%, your expected long-run profit is $1.50 for every $100 you bet.
hi ken!I have seen other forum posts,says increase tc+1 has 0.5%advantage,instead of 0.5%x76%,Which one is right?thank you very much~~~~
The advantage increases by 0.5% per true count. I can see that the table above is a bit confusing. Under the advantage column, just ignore the “X 0.76%” part. That just shows how he is converting the advantage at each true count to the optimal bet which is shown in the final columns. The 0.76% comes from the Kelly ratio based on the variance of blackjack.
Hi ken !!thanks for the advise.after only one week of hard training i can keep follow easy the rc and many times to estimate the correct amount of cards that are in the tray so i am going to stick to the hi-lo.i see now how logical was your words that in now time the maximum target is just to make the correct betting for each hand based on the tc.after when i will be ready i will start thinking of deviations in b.s based on the index numbers.thanks for the response
Ken Smith hola de nuevo.lo siento si escribo en una sección equivocada pero quiero preguntar dos cosas.cuando el recuento real es alto y es el momento para nosotros para apostar como contadores de espalda o apostar más como los jugadores en la mesa y hay tres o cinco bases / jugadores que apostar donde para obtener mejores resultados ?primera base?La segunda pregunta que he leído que para sobrevivir a la carrera larga y jugar toda la buena suerte y la mala suerte que necesitamos 50 veces la apuesta máxima. si decido jugar apuesta plana de 5dollars significa que necesito 250 dólares. derecho? en esta cantidad de dinero fynny lo que el beneficio por hora puede ganar? 000000¡¡.1 centavo ????.y por ultimo en otro post me contestaste que no es cuantas horas un contador puede jugar continuamente sino cuanto deberia jugar? por favor iluminanos. si juega mas o menos horas cuales son los resultados? gracias por tu tiempo!!
No importa qué asiento de la mesa elijas. La única diferencia es que, si se sienta en la tercera base, podrá ver algunas cartas más antes de tomar una decisión. Pero ese efecto es menor.
En tu otra pregunta, preguntas por el bankroll necesario para hacer una apuesta plana $5, y cuánto beneficio te reportará. Supongo que te refieres a que jugarás sólo en cuentas positivas, de lo contrario, por supuesto, no habrá beneficio esperado. ¿Cuánto se gana por hora? No mucho. Según mis cálculos, una apuesta plana de $5 en recuentos positivos podría reportar unos 50 céntimos por hora de ganancia esperada. Y seguirás necesitando ese bank de $250 por el que preguntabas para capear los altibajos. Tu última pregunta sobre los resultados basados en horas, es una relación lineal directa. Con 10 horas ganarás 10 veces más que con 1 hora.
0.76 i think is for canculating the optimum bet based on your true count.
También cuando un jugador quiere jugar sólo con las matemáticas y superar la buena y la mala suerte no puedo entender cuánto tiempo se necesita en el juego continuo ... o debo pensar no en el tiempo, sino en las manos ... y no puedo entender si las tablas o el cazino tienen memoria unida ... quiero decir que si juego 10 días seguidos todos los días de 5 horas cada día y pierdo cada vez durante esos 10 días y decido ir después de un mes durante 10 días de nuevo de 5 horas cada día las matemáticas esos días tendrán que darme ganancias ????
Is this also for european bj?
All these with spread 5 /60 ????? If yes for each tc plus 1i raise two betting unit ?if was playing 10/100 spread that woud be twice times the numbers up?
Given that you were only spreading 1:6 in a six or eight deck game, you weren’t playing with an edge at all. And you were playing at a really big disadvantage when you switched to the 6:5 game. If you had instead been spreading maybe 1:12 in this game (and never played the 6:5 game), I would break down your $9K in profit as roughly $500 skill, $8500 luck.
You mention that you have mastered Hi-Lo, but it sounds like you still need to learn a lot. No worries, we all started where you are.
Just for reference, card counting will usually yield about 1 to 1.5 units an hour in expected profit. If you are spreading $25 to $300, that means making $25 to $40 per hour. Of course your actual results will be all over the place, easily up or down $3000 in a session.
Machine shuffles or hand shuffles don’t materially affect the game, except for more advanced techniques. Any trends you have noticed as a result are just noise.
No peek means that the dealer does not check for blackjack before the players complete their hands. It also applies in games where the dealer does not take a second card until all players are done. The reason it affects the strategy is because in the typical US-style peek game, players know for sure that dealer does not have a blackjack before making a decision to split or double down. In a no-peek game those moves are riskier against a dealer ten or ace, because you may lose all of the bets to a dealer blackjack.