Aquí están todos los comentarios publicados en el sitio, con los debates más recientes en primer lugar.
Para participar en cualquiera de estos debates, puede responder en la página del artículo.
Hey thanks for getting right back to me.
Sorry about the confusion on the question.
You did answer my question.i have a hard time keeping the count while i am playing in the casino.
I got basic strategy down real well.
On my bank roll i stay pretty much even.
No big loses or wins.
I just need more practice on the count under pressure
Gracias por la aportación.
Your products really r helping me improve my game.
Gracias por la información. Veo que has calculado stand en 17. Sólo tengo la opción de golpear en 17 suave. Puedo asumir que el riesgo de ruina y 100/h tasa de ganancias será aún peor que los cálculos anteriores, ¿correcto?
¡Y digo que miré tu mensaje antes de decidirme! ¡Uy, me equivoqué!
Aquí hay una carrera para H17:
Difusión de $10 a $120:
75% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $16, RoR: 32%
83% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $22, RoR: 21%
Diferencia de $15 a $180:
75% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $24, RoR: 47%
83% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $33, RoR: 36%
Y, ahora me doy cuenta de que he publicado números NDAS antes.
He corregido los números en la respuesta S17. Ahora son DAS como estaba previsto.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
Hi Ken. I’ve been playing basic strategy for years and am starting to learn to count properly. I’m going on a trip to Connecticut and playing at MS. The BSE says to surrender 16 against a 10, I get that, but it says to stay if no surrender. I’ve never stayed on 16 against a 10, is that really mathematically correct?
Gracias,
Glen
Thanks Ken. I read the article and I’ll do what your BSE says. I just wanted to make sure. My wife & friends are going to over me some strange looks when they see these plays.
I love your site,
Thanks again,
Glen
Good luck! Just remember, that 16vT advice is based on a game that offers surrender. If there is no surrender, then hit all the two-card 16s vs a dealer ten, and you can stand on any three-or-more-card 16s vs ten.
I’m also not sure if they H17 or S17, but if it’s H17 it says to surrender, or stay with 17 against an Ace. Ok, so I’ve never stood on 16 against 10 and I’ve never surrendered a 17. Can you help me understand these 2 plays?
Thanks again,
Glen
For 16vT, see the article I linked in my last reply.
For surrendering 17vA (correct when the dealer hits soft 17), well, 17 against an Ace is a very weak hand. It is made even worse when the dealer hits soft 17, because he cannot flip over a 6 for an immediate push on the hand. It’s just enough to swing the numbers slightly in favor of surrendering over standing. Again, that’s ONLY in the H17 game. In the S17 game, you should stand with 17vA.
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
Corrí CVCX de Qfit.com para obtener algunos números.
CVCX merece la pena para este tipo de cálculos, aunque se tarda un poco en cogerle el truco.
6 decks, S17, DAS, banco $8000:
Difusión de $10 a $120:
Penetración 75% (4,5/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $22, RoR: 24%
Penetración 83% (5.0/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $26, RoR: 15%
Diferencia de $15 a $180:
Penetración 75% (4,5/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $32, RoR: 38%
Penetración 83% (5.0/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $40, RoR: 28%
Con un banco $12K, 75% de penetración $10-$120 RoR baja a 11%.
Con un banco $12K, 75% penetración $15-$180 RoR sigue siendo 24%.
Lo peor en partidas de más de 6 mazos es el coste de la espera. Si puedes hacer recuento, la diferencia es enorme.
Eso es difícil en la mayoría de los lugares hoy en día debido a las restricciones de entrada con calzado medio y al aumento del calor.
Pero al menos asegúrate de tomar descansos en los recuentos realmente negativos. Eso te ayudará mucho.
Si realmente se trata de un bankroll no renovable, creo que es demasiado arriesgado. Mi regla general es no hacer una apuesta inicial de más de 1% de tu bankroll. Eso implicaría un bank de $12K para $10-$120, y un bank de $18K para $15-$180. También me doy cuenta de que, cuando se empieza, puede ser una suma inmanejable para acumular. La mayoría de los jugadores en esa situación se arriesgarán con el banco más pequeño. Si se viene abajo, hay que volver al trabajo para construir otro banco.
No me fío de mis estimaciones improvisadas de RoR porque no tengo práctica. Déjame ver si puedo hacer un trabajo rápido esta noche para obtener una estimación real para usted.
Hola Chad, Simplemente no tengo tiempo en este momento para ejecutar cualquier sims para usted. Mira en blackjacktheforum.com. (Tacha eso. Ahora estoy corriendo sims.)
Hey thanks for getting right back to me.
Sorry about the confusion on the question.
You did answer my question.i have a hard time keeping the count while i am playing in the casino.
I got basic strategy down real well.
On my bank roll i stay pretty much even.
No big loses or wins.
I just need more practice on the count under pressure
Gracias por la aportación.
Your products really r helping me improve my game.
Staying at Wynn there are still tables in both casinos with 3:2 and sh17 but you have to hunt them out they are typically higher min bet tables.
Gracias por la información. Veo que has calculado stand en 17. Sólo tengo la opción de golpear en 17 suave. Puedo asumir que el riesgo de ruina y 100/h tasa de ganancias será aún peor que los cálculos anteriores, ¿correcto?
¡Y digo que miré tu mensaje antes de decidirme! ¡Uy, me equivoqué!
Aquí hay una carrera para H17:
Difusión de $10 a $120:
75% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $16, RoR: 32%
83% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $22, RoR: 21%
Diferencia de $15 a $180:
75% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $24, RoR: 47%
83% bolígrafo, Win por 100 manos: $33, RoR: 36%
Y, ahora me doy cuenta de que he publicado números NDAS antes.
He corregido los números en la respuesta S17. Ahora son DAS como estaba previsto.
I have a question regarding the logic of these variations (and actually, card counting in general now that I think about it).
Say you have a hard 15 against the dealer’s 7. You say to stand if the count is above 10. The reasoning behind this is that with a high count, there is a much higher percentage that the next card is a high card and that you will bust. However, under this same logic, there is ALSO a very high percentage that the dealer’s hole card is a face card, since the hole card is unknown and is subject to the same probability as the rest of the deck. Meaning that there is a high chance that your 15 will lose to the dealer’s 7.
I know you said in a different comment not to focus on the “why”, but I’ve realized that the dealer’s hole card should be seriously considered with the count in mind. Do these indexes account for the hole card? Are there computer simulations or other data that demonstrate the validity of these indexes?
Also, quick unrelated follow-up question: Did you ever re-calculate the table in Lesson 9 about Standard Deviation? It was calculated using a flat $12 bet, not a spread. If you haven’t gotten to this yet, could you point me in the direction of some software or something that I could use to run simulations/calculations myself? I could save you some time and send you the results, if so.
All of these factors are included in the calculations for index numbers. You are right that in high counts the dealer is more likely to have pat 20. If he does, your decision to hit or stand is actually less important, because you could safely hit and still lose the hand. The same software I recommend for simulations (CVData from qfit.com) always allows you to verify all these kinds of things, and generate your own custom indexes.
For a visual example, see https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm
So far, I have not had time to rework Lesson 9 and it’s SD information. My sole focus right now is the new version of the trainer.
Hi Ken. I’ve been playing basic strategy for years and am starting to learn to count properly. I’m going on a trip to Connecticut and playing at MS. The BSE says to surrender 16 against a 10, I get that, but it says to stay if no surrender. I’ve never stayed on 16 against a 10, is that really mathematically correct?
Gracias,
Glen
That’s the odd strategy chart situation that creates more mail than any other here.
Véase 16vT: RS. WTF?
Thanks Ken. I read the article and I’ll do what your BSE says. I just wanted to make sure. My wife & friends are going to over me some strange looks when they see these plays.
I love your site,
Thanks again,
Glen
Good luck! Just remember, that 16vT advice is based on a game that offers surrender. If there is no surrender, then hit all the two-card 16s vs a dealer ten, and you can stand on any three-or-more-card 16s vs ten.
I’m also not sure if they H17 or S17, but if it’s H17 it says to surrender, or stay with 17 against an Ace. Ok, so I’ve never stood on 16 against 10 and I’ve never surrendered a 17. Can you help me understand these 2 plays?
Thanks again,
Glen
For 16vT, see the article I linked in my last reply.
For surrendering 17vA (correct when the dealer hits soft 17), well, 17 against an Ace is a very weak hand. It is made even worse when the dealer hits soft 17, because he cannot flip over a 6 for an immediate push on the hand. It’s just enough to swing the numbers slightly in favor of surrendering over standing. Again, that’s ONLY in the H17 game. In the S17 game, you should stand with 17vA.
That makes sense. Thanks for the quick response. Love your website
I’d really like to buy your cards, but you don’t have the specific card I need… Do you know the indices for a 4D, H17, DAS, No surrender, Peek, game? If not, do you know where I could find them (without buying $200 software….)?
I understand that you don’t know which card the clueless guy is going to draw. But people don’t usually get upset when someone does a crazy movie like hitting a 16 vs a dealer 6 until they see the outcome. I’ve seen players keep their mouth shut and say yay you saved the table and you killed the table. Me personally if someone does something like that, I just look to see if that mistake effected me that hand. Even if it does I don’t say anything but it just sucks to know you would have won a hand if someone played basic strat. This is all hindsight I’m not talking about before the outcome.
Corrí CVCX de Qfit.com para obtener algunos números.
CVCX merece la pena para este tipo de cálculos, aunque se tarda un poco en cogerle el truco.
6 decks, S17, DAS, banco $8000:
Difusión de $10 a $120:
Penetración 75% (4,5/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $22, RoR: 24%
Penetración 83% (5.0/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $26, RoR: 15%
Diferencia de $15 a $180:
Penetración 75% (4,5/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $32, RoR: 38%
Penetración 83% (5.0/6): Gana cada 100 manos: $40, RoR: 28%
Con un banco $12K, 75% de penetración $10-$120 RoR baja a 11%.
Con un banco $12K, 75% penetración $15-$180 RoR sigue siendo 24%.
Lo peor en partidas de más de 6 mazos es el coste de la espera. Si puedes hacer recuento, la diferencia es enorme.
Eso es difícil en la mayoría de los lugares hoy en día debido a las restricciones de entrada con calzado medio y al aumento del calor.
Pero al menos asegúrate de tomar descansos en los recuentos realmente negativos. Eso te ayudará mucho.
Si realmente se trata de un bankroll no renovable, creo que es demasiado arriesgado. Mi regla general es no hacer una apuesta inicial de más de 1% de tu bankroll. Eso implicaría un bank de $12K para $10-$120, y un bank de $18K para $15-$180. También me doy cuenta de que, cuando se empieza, puede ser una suma inmanejable para acumular. La mayoría de los jugadores en esa situación se arriesgarán con el banco más pequeño. Si se viene abajo, hay que volver al trabajo para construir otro banco.
No me fío de mis estimaciones improvisadas de RoR porque no tengo práctica. Déjame ver si puedo hacer un trabajo rápido esta noche para obtener una estimación real para usted.
Gracias por la respuesta Ken, En su opinión es $8K bankroll suficiente para $15 mesas?
Hola Chad,
Simplemente no tengo tiempo en este momento para ejecutar cualquier sims para usted. Mira en blackjacktheforum.com.(Tacha eso. Ahora estoy corriendo sims.)He releído mi post y quería aclarar que estoy preguntando por el "riesgo de ruina" con las siglas RoR.
Gracias,