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Zippy is correct. The article is just plain wrong. The article should be amended, starting with this sentence at the end of the second paragraph:
“Even money should always be taken when the player has a blackjack against the dealers Ace up card. Doing this gives the player a guaranteed profit for the round.”
The above sentence should read:
The non-counting, non-hole-carding blackjack player should never take even money, and should never take insurance.
Thanks for hosting this forum. I found your logic and knowledge to be very informative. I’m sure if we ever sat down and chatted, we could have quite an interesting discussion on the game. I’m in Vegas about once a month.
Yeah, I’ve never agreed with this idea that you have to be super-fast to be successful. The GameMaster and I agree that you need to be accurate and relatively quick. But 40 seconds is quite reasonable in my opinion.
I’m confused… I thought, with all else being equal, your advantage is highest in a single deck game because the penetration is naturally better since you are already starting out with one deck. So why would you keep smaller spreads in a one deck game? That’s where the money’s at… right? I get that you’re referring to the spreads that are necessary to “beat” a particular game, but it just seems counterproductive because you’re missing out on an opportunity. Or am I way off…
The supposed reason is that the single and double deck games are more closely watched, and you won’t be able to play for long with a big spread. Although there is some truth in that, it’s also true that any spread at all is dangerous, so a bigger spread to crush the easier games is tempting. It all depends on the situation, and what you can really get away with.
Can someone post the correct basic strategy deviatons for a hard 10? I believe 10 vs 9 hits at -2 , 10 vs 10 Doubles at +4, 10 vs A doubles at +3. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks a lot!
Sorry for posting twice, but I think it would be very cool if your trainer didn’t play just by basic strategy for the game you’re playing but it also included all of the basic strategy deviations for the card counting system of the player’s choice ( Hi-lo first because it’s what most people use) when it corrects your play. I would like this because I was playing the App and stayed on 16 vs a dealer 10 in a high true count and it said my play was wrong. I think this would be a cool addition. Another cool thing would be allowing the player to choose how much penetration the game has. Thank you for listening!
I played in a tournament on Carnival last month…I almost won..this blog would have helped..I’m going to Vegas next month..I will play in as many tournaments as possible..seems like a pretty good entertainment value..and winning would be great:-)
Great comments. I agree with 90+ percent of your narrative and 100 percent agree on the heads up solo. The only thing I disagree on is surrender. My experience on hit & run using surrender to limit losses on poor percentage hands has worked pretty well. Maybe I’m just fortunate but I’m also not trying to retire every time I play. Thanks for the insight.
Would help if you re study your money management. $!0,000.00 Bankroll would be a min. bet of table allowed min to a Max of 2% of bankroll or $200.00 I am speaking og your playing bankroll not how much money you have in the bank. If you only have $10,000.00 in the bank total to live on, stay home and pay your bills. $25 to $200 gives you a 8-1 spread not great but playable. $10 to $200 gives you a 20-1 spread very good but be carefuk not to get caught with the large bet difference.
This is one poor trainer. The house has an unbelievable knack for pulling a 14-15-16 Right out of their asses and making a 20 or 21. Almost always beating you by 1. Definitely rigged.
Did you ever think, you may not know how to count! It is a fact, it works. Why do you think MIT (group) got banned from the casinos. Geeze where the fuck do these morons crawl under from.
Ken Smith,
That was absolutely the finest description of blackjack life in the high limit room I ever read. I’ve been playing 37 years in casino’s and your narrative was spot on. Thanks for that!
Something’s wrong with your calculations. Let’s look at a true count of +6. That’s roughly 3% added to the base edge of -0.66%. So, at TC+6, your edge is 2.34%. (These numbers aren’t precise enough to use two decimal digits, but I’m doing it anyway to make the process clear.) Multiply that by 0.76 and get 2.34 * 0.76 = 1.78% of your bank. With a $3000 bank, that’s a bet of $53.
Now, as for a smaller bank, you just can’t effectively play a six deck game with less than about $3000 you’re willing to devote to it. You can do two things: Back-count and play only positive counts until you build up your bank, or play anyway and just realize if you lose your $1500 you’ll need to wait until you build up more ammo.
Roger that. Thanks Ken!
Do you think you could do a lesson on Hi-Lo vs. KO vs. RE-KO? I’d love to know how the systems statistically compare in different circumstances.
Zippy is correct. The article is just plain wrong. The article should be amended, starting with this sentence at the end of the second paragraph:
“Even money should always be taken when the player has a blackjack against the dealers Ace up card. Doing this gives the player a guaranteed profit for the round.”
The above sentence should read:
The non-counting, non-hole-carding blackjack player should never take even money, and should never take insurance.
And that should end the article.
Ken Smith,
Thanks for hosting this forum. I found your logic and knowledge to be very informative. I’m sure if we ever sat down and chatted, we could have quite an interesting discussion on the game. I’m in Vegas about once a month.
Hey Ken,
No disrespect, but 10 seconds… really? Like 52 cards? I couldn’t even turn over a whole deck in 20 seconds.
I just went through a deck in two’s and then in three’s both in 40 seconds… Am I ready to hit a table?
Yeah, I’ve never agreed with this idea that you have to be super-fast to be successful. The GameMaster and I agree that you need to be accurate and relatively quick. But 40 seconds is quite reasonable in my opinion.
Hey Ken,
I’m confused… I thought, with all else being equal, your advantage is highest in a single deck game because the penetration is naturally better since you are already starting out with one deck. So why would you keep smaller spreads in a one deck game? That’s where the money’s at… right? I get that you’re referring to the spreads that are necessary to “beat” a particular game, but it just seems counterproductive because you’re missing out on an opportunity. Or am I way off…
The supposed reason is that the single and double deck games are more closely watched, and you won’t be able to play for long with a big spread. Although there is some truth in that, it’s also true that any spread at all is dangerous, so a bigger spread to crush the easier games is tempting. It all depends on the situation, and what you can really get away with.
Can someone post the correct basic strategy deviatons for a hard 10? I believe 10 vs 9 hits at -2 , 10 vs 10 Doubles at +4, 10 vs A doubles at +3. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks a lot!
Sorry for posting twice, but I think it would be very cool if your trainer didn’t play just by basic strategy for the game you’re playing but it also included all of the basic strategy deviations for the card counting system of the player’s choice ( Hi-lo first because it’s what most people use) when it corrects your play. I would like this because I was playing the App and stayed on 16 vs a dealer 10 in a high true count and it said my play was wrong. I think this would be a cool addition. Another cool thing would be allowing the player to choose how much penetration the game has. Thank you for listening!
Question and Observation regarding raising your bet when the count is a negative 7 to 13 true negative of 4′ Has anyone run simulations on this.
So far , 100 hands only, it works almost as well as a true positive count of 4′. If Simulation agree, Why?
I played in a tournament on Carnival last month…I almost won..this blog would have helped..I’m going to Vegas next month..I will play in as many tournaments as possible..seems like a pretty good entertainment value..and winning would be great:-)
I hear LV bear consistently overstates his trip results?
Some Play. and those who can’t must deal. Please don;t give bad advice.
Mike Gunter,
Great comments. I agree with 90+ percent of your narrative and 100 percent agree on the heads up solo. The only thing I disagree on is surrender. My experience on hit & run using surrender to limit losses on poor percentage hands has worked pretty well. Maybe I’m just fortunate but I’m also not trying to retire every time I play. Thanks for the insight.
Would help if you re study your money management. $!0,000.00 Bankroll would be a min. bet of table allowed min to a Max of 2% of bankroll or $200.00 I am speaking og your playing bankroll not how much money you have in the bank. If you only have $10,000.00 in the bank total to live on, stay home and pay your bills. $25 to $200 gives you a 8-1 spread not great but playable. $10 to $200 gives you a 20-1 spread very good but be carefuk not to get caught with the large bet difference.
This is one poor trainer. The house has an unbelievable knack for pulling a 14-15-16 Right out of their asses and making a 20 or 21. Almost always beating you by 1. Definitely rigged.
Did you ever think, you may not know how to count! It is a fact, it works. Why do you think MIT (group) got banned from the casinos. Geeze where the fuck do these morons crawl under from.
Ken Smith,
That was absolutely the finest description of blackjack life in the high limit room I ever read. I’ve been playing 37 years in casino’s and your narrative was spot on. Thanks for that!
Something’s wrong with your calculations. Let’s look at a true count of +6. That’s roughly 3% added to the base edge of -0.66%. So, at TC+6, your edge is 2.34%. (These numbers aren’t precise enough to use two decimal digits, but I’m doing it anyway to make the process clear.) Multiply that by 0.76 and get 2.34 * 0.76 = 1.78% of your bank. With a $3000 bank, that’s a bet of $53.
Now, as for a smaller bank, you just can’t effectively play a six deck game with less than about $3000 you’re willing to devote to it. You can do two things: Back-count and play only positive counts until you build up your bank, or play anyway and just realize if you lose your $1500 you’ll need to wait until you build up more ammo.