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Hi Thanks for all information. In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machine , 5 or 6 decks. I am asking ,is there any change in basic strategy? ( compare to 6 deck shoes) .
Hi Thanks for all the informations. In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machines. ( usually 5 or 6 decks). I am asking , is there any change in basic strategy as compare to 6 decks shoes?
Hi KenSmith I have bust rate for dealer up cards from A to 10, but can’t find the bust rate for player hard 12 to 16 when hit for another cards.please give me the information.I am a basic strategy player. Thank you.
It’s pretty easy to calculate these, especially if you’re willing to accept almost-accurate numbers from an infinite deck approximation.
If you hit hard 16 and plan to stand at 17 or more, then you’ll take only one card. Five of the possible 13 card values will improve your hand, so you’ll bust the other 8/13 of the time. p(bust 16) = 8/13 = 61.5%
If you have hard 15, there are now two possibilities… You’ll bust immediately 7/13 of the time. 1/13 of the time you’ll draw an Ace for hard 16, and hit again. p(bust 15) = 7/13 + (1/13 * 8/13) = 58.6%
You can do the same thing for the other starting hands. The results? p(Bust 16) = 61.5% p(Bust 15) = 58.6% p(Bust 14) = 55.0% p(Bust 13) = 50.9% p(Bust 12) = 46.2%
These all assume you will continue hitting until you reach 17 or bust.
Thank you for everything, man. I am on vacation for six months and I have been on your site almost everyday for the past three. I have basic memorized and have started working counting in to my play. Thank you for teaching me these skills through your site. The new format looks great.
The new display, i.e. black screen on a white background is glaring. It makes my eyes hurt. It causes distortions in perception and causes a loss in concentration. Please change back to the green background or anything easier on the eyes. Thank you for the service of the strategy trainer. If you have time, how does the Surrender option effect the win/loss ratio if surrender is counted as a loss?
Can you quantify the change. I would expect the win ratio to be less even though the $Loss would be less. I have been calculating the winning percentage at 47.6. Is this about correct for the dealer hits soft-17 option. The Beau Rivage, Biloxi plays Dealer Hits Soft 17, has late surrender and re-split Aces up to 4 hands. This seems to offer good odds. What are they? Thanks again for the Basic Strategy Charts and your many excellent articles.
You are correct: with surrender the percentage of hands lost will be higher, but the money lost will be lower (assuming you use surrender at the appropriate times). This is one example of why looking at the win/loss percentage is a poor way of judging a game.
I recommend paying no attention at all to win/loss percentages, because they don’t tell the whole story. That is especially true when using the trainer. The trainer’s percentage display is simply not useful, as it even treats a push as a loss. The win percentage is just the number of wins divided by the number of total hands. (The next version will be much improved in that regard, when I get time to finish it!)
I’m extremely suspicious that this program isn’t fairly generating random numbers. It consistently deals out high cards straight from the beginning. Time after time after time, I set it to 2 decks, and I see extremely negative counts, very quickly, and the reason is because lots of high cards come out straight at the beginning. Is it possible you programmed this thing to kind of simulate “worst case scenario” conditions?
Yeah, I guess that’s believable. Stranger things that one expects are conceivable can happen by chance. I do remember this one time I played monopoly, we played for like an hour and fully one out of every 6 rolls was double-6, and that wasn’t on any computer, they were real dice, And I just got my clock cleaned by a casino. I’d win 25 dollar bet (min bet on the 2 deck game) after 25 dollar bet after 25 dollar bet when the count was negative or not positive enough, I endured another player with a superiority complex (ironic) chastising me for being too “afraid” to play basic strategy (sure, it was fear that made me deviate from basic strategy), constantly griping at me for messing up his game by “playing badly” (like standing on 16 against a 10 when the count was like +7), and eventually actually PAYING me 25 dollars to LEAVE the table (!!!), then the count would get high and I’d bet 50, or 100, this one time the count got to +13 with 1.3 decks left I reckoned, I doubled down on 10 against 10 with 200 on the table, and of course I got a frigging 2, and the dealer got the 10 of course…. and then the EXACT SAME THING HAPPENED AGAIN NEXT HAND! And at the end of the day, 3500 dollars down (with 500 left), security came to my table and said “we believe you are an advantage player” and invited me to play any game but blackjack. Gee. THAT was fun. It’s hard to believe that I supposedly really did have an advantage, but I did a calculation and it turned out that risk of ruin was minimized by betting 54 dollars for every 1 the true count was past 1.8 (or betting as if I had about 15000 dollars regardless of the amount I actually had), and that risk of ruin was about 76% starting from 5000 dollars, so I did know it could go that badly pretty easily but damn it sure seemed like some deity had a grudge with me. But what can I do, no one would ever hire me for an actual job. What happens whenever I touch the stock market? 2008 happens is what happens. I just suck at everything.
Oh, by the way, you say on your website in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so. This is wrong. The actually correct answer is actually exactly 3 and a third. Or if you want to maximize utility (expectation on a logarithmic scale, a.k.a. kelly optimality) 3.29 since the insurance bet has negative correlation with the result of the main bet. You’d think it would drop more than from 3.33 to 3.29, but nope, that’s all.
You say “…in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so…” Any idea where you saw that? If it’s mentioned somewhere it is certainly a mistake and needs to be corrected.
Hi Raymond, I notice you are visiting from a mobile device which likely does not support Flash. That did not change with the new website. Perhaps you were previously visiting from a desktop computer instead?
If you were previously able to access the trainer from your mobile device, please let me know. But I am unaware of any that support Flash.
By the way, now that the website design is complete, I can get to work creating a new version of the trainer. I’ve been planning that for a long while, and have a lot of improvements in mind. For one thing, the new version will not require Flash, and should work on any device. I plan for it to also optionally be multi-player.
I am a fairly successful speed count player switching over to the Hi Low system. I see that the Hi Low system is much more powerful system. In many of the variation decisions it is unclear in several cases if the count is true or running. Please advise if possible. Also I am an Atlantic City BJ player with 8 decks. Are the above rules almost the same as 6 decks? Michael
Hi
Thanks for all information. In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machine , 5 or 6 decks. I am asking ,is there any change in basic strategy? ( compare to 6 deck shoes) .
Hi
Thanks for all the informations.
In Asia, most casino use continuous shuffle machines. ( usually 5 or 6 decks). I am asking , is there any change in basic strategy as compare to 6 decks shoes?
CSMs don’t change the basic strategy at all. Play with the confidence that you are playing these games as well as possible.
Hi KenSmith
Thanks.
Hi KenSmith
I have bust rate for dealer up cards from A to 10, but can’t find the bust rate for player hard 12 to 16 when hit for another cards.please give me the information.I am a basic strategy player. Thank you.
It’s pretty easy to calculate these, especially if you’re willing to accept almost-accurate numbers from an infinite deck approximation.
If you hit hard 16 and plan to stand at 17 or more, then you’ll take only one card.
Five of the possible 13 card values will improve your hand, so you’ll bust the other 8/13 of the time.
p(bust 16) = 8/13 = 61.5%
If you have hard 15, there are now two possibilities…
You’ll bust immediately 7/13 of the time.
1/13 of the time you’ll draw an Ace for hard 16, and hit again.
p(bust 15) = 7/13 + (1/13 * 8/13) = 58.6%
You can do the same thing for the other starting hands.
The results?
p(Bust 16) = 61.5%
p(Bust 15) = 58.6%
p(Bust 14) = 55.0%
p(Bust 13) = 50.9%
p(Bust 12) = 46.2%
These all assume you will continue hitting until you reach 17 or bust.
Thank you very much.
Thank you for everything, man. I am on vacation for six months and I have been on your site almost everyday for the past three. I have basic memorized and have started working counting in to my play. Thank you for teaching me these skills through your site. The new format looks great.
Absolutely brilliant. So very cool. It’s bookmarked
The new display, i.e. black screen on a white background is glaring. It makes my eyes hurt. It causes distortions in perception and causes a loss in concentration. Please change back to the green background or anything easier on the eyes.
Thank you for the service of the strategy trainer. If you have time, how does the Surrender option effect the win/loss ratio if surrender is counted as a loss?
Wheelmarks
A surrender in the trainer is counted just like any other loss, so it affects the win/loss percentage as well.
On the screen colors, I may experiment with that a bit and see what I can come up with. Thanks for the feedback.
Can you quantify the change. I would expect the win ratio to be less even though the $Loss would be less. I have been calculating the winning percentage at 47.6. Is this about correct for the dealer hits soft-17 option. The Beau Rivage, Biloxi plays Dealer Hits Soft 17, has late surrender and re-split Aces up to 4 hands. This seems to offer good odds. What are they? Thanks again for the Basic Strategy Charts and your many excellent articles.
Wheelmarks
You are correct: with surrender the percentage of hands lost will be higher, but the money lost will be lower (assuming you use surrender at the appropriate times). This is one example of why looking at the win/loss percentage is a poor way of judging a game.
I recommend paying no attention at all to win/loss percentages, because they don’t tell the whole story.
That is especially true when using the trainer. The trainer’s percentage display is simply not useful, as it even treats a push as a loss. The win percentage is just the number of wins divided by the number of total hands. (The next version will be much improved in that regard, when I get time to finish it!)
For the Beau Rivage game you mention, I plugged in 6D, H17, and Late Surrender at the Strategy Engine:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-basic-strategy-engine/?numdecks=6&soft17=h17&dbl=all&das=yes&surr=ls&peek=yes
That shows a house advantage estimated at 0.58%. The Resplit Aces rules decreases that by about 0.08%, so this game has an expected loss of 0.5% of your initial bets.
That is the important number, regardless of what percentage of hands you will win or lose.
I’m extremely suspicious that this program isn’t fairly generating random numbers. It consistently deals out high cards straight from the beginning. Time after time after time, I set it to 2 decks, and I see extremely negative counts, very quickly, and the reason is because lots of high cards come out straight at the beginning. Is it possible you programmed this thing to kind of simulate “worst case scenario” conditions?
No, it’s random. You’ve just been lucky, or unlucky, depending on your perspective.
Yeah, I guess that’s believable. Stranger things that one expects are conceivable can happen by chance. I do remember this one time I played monopoly, we played for like an hour and fully one out of every 6 rolls was double-6, and that wasn’t on any computer, they were real dice, And I just got my clock cleaned by a casino. I’d win 25 dollar bet (min bet on the 2 deck game) after 25 dollar bet after 25 dollar bet when the count was negative or not positive enough, I endured another player with a superiority complex (ironic) chastising me for being too “afraid” to play basic strategy (sure, it was fear that made me deviate from basic strategy), constantly griping at me for messing up his game by “playing badly” (like standing on 16 against a 10 when the count was like +7), and eventually actually PAYING me 25 dollars to LEAVE the table (!!!), then the count would get high and I’d bet 50, or 100, this one time the count got to +13 with 1.3 decks left I reckoned, I doubled down on 10 against 10 with 200 on the table, and of course I got a frigging 2, and the dealer got the 10 of course…. and then the EXACT SAME THING HAPPENED AGAIN NEXT HAND! And at the end of the day, 3500 dollars down (with 500 left), security came to my table and said “we believe you are an advantage player” and invited me to play any game but blackjack. Gee. THAT was fun. It’s hard to believe that I supposedly really did have an advantage, but I did a calculation and it turned out that risk of ruin was minimized by betting 54 dollars for every 1 the true count was past 1.8 (or betting as if I had about 15000 dollars regardless of the amount I actually had), and that risk of ruin was about 76% starting from 5000 dollars, so I did know it could go that badly pretty easily but damn it sure seemed like some deity had a grudge with me. But what can I do, no one would ever hire me for an actual job. What happens whenever I touch the stock market? 2008 happens is what happens. I just suck at everything.
Oh, by the way, you say on your website in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so. This is wrong. The actually correct answer is actually exactly 3 and a third. Or if you want to maximize utility (expectation on a logarithmic scale, a.k.a. kelly optimality) 3.29 since the insurance bet has negative correlation with the result of the main bet. You’d think it would drop more than from 3.33 to 3.29, but nope, that’s all.
You say “…in your blackjack lessons that you should take insurance when the count gets to 1.3 or so…”
Any idea where you saw that? If it’s mentioned somewhere it is certainly a mistake and needs to be corrected.
In the School, the lesson at https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-13-advanced-course-part-1/ correctly includes this:
“If you are playing at a six deck game, insurance is worthwhile when the true count is 3 or higher.”
Hi Raymond,
I notice you are visiting from a mobile device which likely does not support Flash. That did not change with the new website.
Perhaps you were previously visiting from a desktop computer instead?
If you were previously able to access the trainer from your mobile device, please let me know.
But I am unaware of any that support Flash.
By the way, now that the website design is complete, I can get to work creating a new version of the trainer.
I’ve been planning that for a long while, and have a lot of improvements in mind.
For one thing, the new version will not require Flash, and should work on any device.
I plan for it to also optionally be multi-player.
Wow this website made me win big I started with 1k and I left with about 5.79K Thx!
I am a fairly successful speed count player switching over to the Hi Low system. I see that the Hi Low system is much more powerful system. In many of the variation decisions it is unclear in several cases if the count is true or running. Please advise if possible. Also I am an Atlantic City BJ player with 8 decks. Are the above rules almost the same as 6 decks?
Michael