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As always, Ken, you are absolutely correct; however……………….I always liked to agree that Johnny Clueless was KILLING me. Why? If the casino pit crew believes that I think that, then they cannot possibly believe I am an advantage player.
I agree 100 per cent . Basic strategy has been figured out by computer programmers and by mathematicians. It all depends on what you have and by what the dealer has, not by what other players are doing.
I know it is a rule that you must hit against a Dealers Ace when it is that he does not have a Blackjack even if the player has a double down hand, this I do not understand. I have been doubling down and most the time I have won. Can you explain.
Sorry but this article is for idiots… If you ever thought other players would affect your results then hehhh you’re the kind of sucker gambler a jackpot for the casino.
@George Low I assume you mean with a player hand of 11, and a dealer upcard of Ace.
In a game where the dealer stands on all 17s, the basic strategy is to just hit 11vA instead of double down. Like all of basic strategy, this is determined by examining which option either makes the most money in the long run, or saves the most money in the case of losing hands.
If you are instead playing a game where the dealer hits soft 17, the dealer will bust slightly more often with an Ace up, and the basic strategy changes. You should double down 11vA instead of hit in an H17 game.
For card counters, because these are fairly close calls, you’ll often deviate from basic strategy based on the count.
In 6D S17, double 11vA if the count is +1 or higher. In 6D H17, double 11vA if the count is 0 or higher.
A probabilities undergrad course is all it takes to agree with your explanation. Anyway, it helps players to blame someone else for their losses. Thanks for your newsletter.
I somewhat disagree that Johnny Clueless has no affect on my hand if he hits. In your example I have a 50/50 chance of winning if Johnny stays. But if he hits, I then have a 75% chance of winning or losing depending on the card drawn by Johnny. Did Johnny’s hit cause me to lose or win? No, but it did affect my chances of winning or losing.
@Uncledougy: “I then have a 75% chance of winning or losing depending on the card drawn by Johnny.”
But you don’t know which card he will draw. Your chance of winning the hand in this situation is unchanged. If he stands, you win 50% of the time. If he draws a card, you win 50% of the time.
Personally I am a conservative player, If i’m sitting on twenty the odds are I have a better chance of winning. Like the article above it draws to much attention especially if the table loses because of this play. 2 deck is the only way to play with basic strategy and counting cards. If you don’t keep count of the cards and use strict money management than you don’t need to play this game if you are trying to win money. You also need a preplanned betting strategy before entering the casino. Example the count is+5, If you bet 4 units and win go back to 3 if you win 5 if you win again go to 4, if you lose. You still won 8 units per say if you double each bet you will be back to where you started from or worse. This is what the casino likes. They call them peasants. Above all else you have to have a high degree of disciple, Know when to get your ASS up, It doesn’t matter what you play are how good you are sooner are later the cards will change. Always leave a winner.
The way I see it, a good card counter should use these superstitions, particularly the positive ones, to their advantage. Create an image where you either believe them or “keep an open mind” about those folly beliefs. Use the positive superstitions to encourage other players and keep the casino people thinking “Another superstitious fool who’s going to lose all his money, LOL! Give the player (card counter) what he/she wants”. For example: Great job, you changed the flow of the cards just in time. You saved the table with that move I never would of considered (Ignoring the times when their bad move killed the table and praising them for saving it)! Let it ride baby (make them think you’re chasing a winning streak, when in reality the count is sizzling HOT)! I’ve been losing, I don’t want to keep playing this cold shoe. My hand of bad luck 13 killed me, I’m changing tables (The reality is, you’re switching tables/lowering your bets because the true count suddenly turned negative.
You know I just want to say something, I’ve been using your training and everything you offer us on this site for nearly 5 years and I couldn’t be happier. Thank you so much for keeping this site up and running!
I’m in Las Vegas right now as I type this staying at the Luxor. I’ll be here for 2 weeks. I took your advice and lost $3,000.00 at the MGM 3/2 Blackjack tables outside the Rouge. I’ve studied card counting for 8 months. I can count through an entire 6 decks every time. Vary the bet using the Kelly method etc. None of that helped me last night.
1) An Asian women kept talking to me and was rubbing my leg with her leg and arm. I know Asian women want white guys but I’m not interested. This behavior was making me nervous. I lost the count and started losing. I broke even and left the table.
2) The pit boss knew I was counting. He walked up and gave me an intimidating look. The dealer was rude and could not even speak English.
3) The dealer puts the cards on the table to cover up hit on 17 or stand on 17. This forces you to ask.
4) The dealer at the MGM uses a mirror to see her down card then starts telling me how I should play. This is bullshit. I would have never sat down if there was a mirror. That’s cheating. If I did that I would be thrown out or arrested.
5) I lost $3,000.00 in a matter of minutes. It was no fun. It was a complete waste. The dealer got 14 blackjacks. They were winning every hand. NOBODY plays that good! I never saw them shuffle. I feel cheated. To study this long to card count then coming out to Vegas to put it into action and losing $3,000.00 in a few minutes on the first day! This is Bull. I’m super pissed! This was no fun at all and a complete waste of time.
6) Card counting is bullshit. Every time you flip a quarter it’s an independent event. There is no law of physics that says it will be 50/50. You can flip a quarter 10 times and get tails 9 times in a row. This is exactly what happened to me last night at the MGM. And there is NO GUARANTEE that you will get heads 9 times in a row if you play long enough. All that money is GONE. WASTED.
7) I started getting a major attitude with the stupid rude dealer who cannot speak English! Where do they hire these people!? There are ALLOT of people that need jobs! Why hire some women who worked at a Hanoi whorehouse who cannot tell you about comps or why there is a mirror on the table!
8) I used my M Life Card. I got it at the desk there. I lose $3,000.00 in minutes and the pit boss refuses to comp me!!! I was dressed like a movie star. This guys comes over and stares me down. When I asked about comps he puts the card on my table like “fuck you” and walks away. Yes I was super pissed and I think that’s understandable. There is NO WAY a dealer could play THAT WELL UNLESS THEY WERE CHEATING! I say the cards on the tables and NEVER saw her shuffle them! I just assumed she did.
9) The environment ruined my counting. I was reduced to a nervous wreck. I was fumbling, behind on the count, the dealer was rude, the pit boss knew (and for some reason let me continue) and this was just an overall awful experience. A total waste of time. This is the last time I will gamble. I’m just going to focus on my business. At least there when I lose $3,000.00 I can file in court.
10) Think about this next time you tell everyone to play at the MGM Grand. All the Stand on soft 17 tables were $100.00 minimums. On a Sunday night no less! The non shuffling, the covering up of the tables so you have to ASK if they are hitting on 17 (what tourist asks that question) the god dammed mirror, the crowd, the rude dealer giving suggestions while looking at her mirror (AKA cheating) and losing $3,000.00 in what felt like minutes WITH PERFECT BASIC STRATEGY PLAY was the worst most wasteful experience ever. This was a total waste of time and money! Not to mention the airfare, hotels, outrageous prices of food and drink. I’m never coming here again!
Losing $3,000 in a matter of minutes gives you every right to rant. I get it. I’ve been there. What should we take away from this? One main thing:
Anyone who tells you that card counting is easy is either lying, or hasn’t done it enough to know the reality of it. Learning to beat the game mathematically is pretty easy. It is in fact the easiest part of all. Any reasonably dedicated person can learn the skills needed to count cards and beat the game at their kitchen table.
So, what makes counting hard? All the other stuff:
Maintaining your concentration at the table
Handling the losing streaks
Staying welcome to play
Handling the losing streaks
Keeping sessions short to preserve longevity
Handling the losing streaks
Scouting tables
Handling the losing streaks
Making you sure you don’t over-tip, or over-bet, or over-camouflage.
Handling the losing streaks
Oh, and did I mention the losing streaks? 🙂
You can count perfectly, bet perfectly, and play perfectly, and still sometimes lose day after day. A bad losing streak can run into hundreds of hours. To survive that kind of brutal run and still be able to play correctly is not easy.
The edge in card counting is small. Very small. Under 1% small. Yes, if you play long enough, you’re almost guaranteed to make money. But it can be a very long haul. There are easier ways to make a living. And, there are also easier ways to make money in the casino. The problem is, almost none of those other methods are as “easy” as card counting to learn and exploit. And there is something crucial about going through the process with card counting that gives you the experience necessary to thrive in the casino environment.
I don’t know any successful gamblers who didn’t count cards at one time, and I still know a few, bless their souls, that are still exclusively counters. It seems mandatory to the education of an advantage player to spend that time in the trenches grinding out a 1% edge or less. You learn to respect the variance, you learn to handle the inevitable losing streaks, and you learn how to handle yourself in the casino. All these skills are worth more than the money you’ll hopefully win along the way.
Now, back to your story… There are a few issues that should be cleared up. The “mirror” you’re talking about is a peek device. The dealer cannot see the value of the down card, but can only tell whether they have a blackjack. (Next time look at the special marks on the Aces and ten-valued cards, and notice how the dealer inserts the cards differently if their up card is a ten or Ace.) So, the dealer doesn’t have any more information than you after she peeks. Any advice the dealer offers in any circumstance should be ignored anyway. You know a lot more about the game than they do, despite their oft-stated opinions.
Anytime you’re uncomfortable at the table, or going on tilt, get outta there. You won’t do yourself any favors by playing when you’re less than calm, cool, and collected. If you think that the pit knows you are counting, get outta there. Staying will just allow them to confirm their suspicions. If you’re losing more than you’re comfortable with, get outta there. If you are losing the count, even once, it’s time to go.
Not everyone has the will (read: stubbornness) to make counting work. Different people have different tolerance levels for all the crap that comes with counting. For me, dealing with back-offs and hostile pit people was very disturbing. That’s one of the reasons I don’t play blackjack nearly as often as I did before. But I still find plenty of opportunities in the casino environment, actually more than ever.
The last particular of your story that I will address is the “14 dealer blackjacks”. I’m going to guess that you didn’t mean to imply that happened over the span of the same “few minutes” as your $3k loss. A typical table will deal about 60 hands an hour if crowded. Let’s give them 80 hands to be generous. How often should a dealer get 14 or more blackjacks in the next 80 hands? The odds are over 40,000 to 1 against. I’m also going to assume that the game you played was absolutely on the square, and you didn’t see those 14 blackjacks over the course of an hour or two. I can understand the urge to exaggerate the description under the circumstances. I just didn’t want to gloss over that stat without commenting on it.
So, should you throw in the towel, chalk up your $3k loss as an idea that didn’t work out, and never look back? Maybe. It would not be an unreasonable decision. Just realize that if you do choose to come back to the game, at some point you’ll have a similarly brutal beating again. And it won’t be any fun then either.
Ken, I just returned from Las Vegas and $10-$15 blackjack tables at The Mirage are converting to 6:5 Blackjack payoffs, no surrender, dealers hitting a soft 17 and continuous shuffle machines are becoming the norm. I did find a $25 BJ table, 6 deck shoe, hand shuffled with 3:2 Blackjack payoffs with the surrender option.
Folks really need to read the table rules BEFORE they sit down and play. I went to Foxwoods yesterday and the BJ rules there remain quite liberal.
As always, Ken, you are absolutely correct; however……………….I always liked to agree that Johnny Clueless was KILLING me. Why? If the casino pit crew believes that I think that, then they cannot possibly believe I am an advantage player.
@Norman Sheridan:
You have a point there Norm. Looking like a typical superstitious gambler is a good idea. Being one is another matter entirely. 🙂
I agree 100 per cent . Basic strategy has been figured out by computer programmers and by mathematicians. It all depends on what you have and by what the dealer has, not by what other players are doing.
I know it is a rule that you must hit against a Dealers Ace when it is that he does not have a Blackjack even if the player has a double down hand, this I do not understand. I have been doubling down and most the time I have won. Can you explain.
Sorry but this article is for idiots… If you ever thought other players would affect your results then hehhh you’re the kind of sucker gambler a jackpot for the casino.
I agree 100%…being a dealer you know the the cards can go either way.
I believe in Table Karma. Wrong creates BAD. Right creates GOOD.
@George Low
I assume you mean with a player hand of 11, and a dealer upcard of Ace.
In a game where the dealer stands on all 17s, the basic strategy is to just hit 11vA instead of double down. Like all of basic strategy, this is determined by examining which option either makes the most money in the long run, or saves the most money in the case of losing hands.
If you are instead playing a game where the dealer hits soft 17, the dealer will bust slightly more often with an Ace up, and the basic strategy changes. You should double down 11vA instead of hit in an H17 game.
For card counters, because these are fairly close calls, you’ll often deviate from basic strategy based on the count.
In 6D S17, double 11vA if the count is +1 or higher.
In 6D H17, double 11vA if the count is 0 or higher.
I’ve found the best way to keep away from the “clueless” is to play at $25 and up tables! Then YOUR skill is tested!
A probabilities undergrad course is all it takes to agree with your explanation. Anyway, it helps players to blame someone else for their losses. Thanks for your newsletter.
I somewhat disagree that Johnny Clueless has no affect on my hand if he hits. In your example I have a 50/50 chance of winning if Johnny stays. But if he hits, I then have a 75% chance of winning or losing depending on the card drawn by Johnny. Did Johnny’s hit cause me to lose or win? No, but it did affect my chances of winning or losing.
@Uncledougy:
“I then have a 75% chance of winning or losing depending on the card drawn by Johnny.”
But you don’t know which card he will draw. Your chance of winning the hand in this situation is unchanged. If he stands, you win 50% of the time. If he draws a card, you win 50% of the time.
@Julian:
I see your point!
Personally I am a conservative player, If i’m sitting on twenty the odds are I have a better chance of winning. Like the article above it draws to much attention especially if the table loses because of this play. 2 deck is the only way to play with basic strategy and counting cards. If you don’t keep count of the cards and use strict money management than you don’t need to play this game if you are trying to win money. You also need a preplanned betting strategy before entering the casino. Example the count is+5, If you bet 4 units and win go back to 3 if you win 5 if you win again go to 4, if you lose. You still won 8 units per say if you double each bet you will be back to where you started from or worse. This is what the casino likes. They call them peasants. Above all else you have to have a high degree of disciple, Know when to get your ASS up, It doesn’t matter what you play are how good you are sooner are later the cards will change. Always leave a winner.
The way I see it, a good card counter should use these superstitions, particularly the positive ones, to their advantage. Create an image where you either believe them or “keep an open mind” about those folly beliefs. Use the positive superstitions to encourage other players and keep the casino people thinking “Another superstitious fool who’s going to lose all his money, LOL! Give the player (card counter) what he/she wants”.
For example: Great job, you changed the flow of the cards just in time. You saved the table with that move I never would of considered (Ignoring the times when their bad move killed the table and praising them for saving it)! Let it ride baby (make them think you’re chasing a winning streak, when in reality the count is sizzling HOT)! I’ve been losing, I don’t want to keep playing this cold shoe. My hand of bad luck 13 killed me, I’m changing tables (The reality is, you’re switching tables/lowering your bets because the true count suddenly turned negative.
@Byakuya: I agree completely. If you see me in the casino, I may spout any kind of nonsense at the table.
The reason why chips/cash exchange is not automated with RFID is simple. You can overwrite RFIDs – next to other severe security risks.
You know I just want to say something, I’ve been using your training
and everything you offer us on this site for nearly 5 years and I couldn’t
be happier. Thank you so much for keeping this site up and running!
I’m in Las Vegas right now as I type this staying at the Luxor. I’ll be here for 2 weeks. I took your advice and lost $3,000.00 at the MGM 3/2 Blackjack tables outside the Rouge. I’ve studied card counting for 8 months. I can count through an entire 6 decks every time. Vary the bet using the Kelly method etc. None of that helped me last night.
1) An Asian women kept talking to me and was rubbing my leg with her leg and arm. I know Asian women want white guys but I’m not interested. This behavior was making me nervous. I lost the count and started losing. I broke even and left the table.
2) The pit boss knew I was counting. He walked up and gave me an intimidating look. The dealer was rude and could not even speak English.
3) The dealer puts the cards on the table to cover up hit on 17 or stand on 17. This forces you to ask.
4) The dealer at the MGM uses a mirror to see her down card then starts telling me how I should play. This is bullshit. I would have never sat down if there was a mirror. That’s cheating. If I did that I would be thrown out or arrested.
5) I lost $3,000.00 in a matter of minutes. It was no fun. It was a complete waste. The dealer got 14 blackjacks. They were winning every hand. NOBODY plays that good! I never saw them shuffle. I feel cheated. To study this long to card count then coming out to Vegas to put it into action and losing $3,000.00 in a few minutes on the first day! This is Bull. I’m super pissed! This was no fun at all and a complete waste of time.
6) Card counting is bullshit. Every time you flip a quarter it’s an independent event. There is no law of physics that says it will be 50/50. You can flip a quarter 10 times and get tails 9 times in a row. This is exactly what happened to me last night at the MGM. And there is NO GUARANTEE that you will get heads 9 times in a row if you play long enough. All that money is GONE. WASTED.
7) I started getting a major attitude with the stupid rude dealer who cannot speak English! Where do they hire these people!? There are ALLOT of people that need jobs! Why hire some women who worked at a Hanoi whorehouse who cannot tell you about comps or why there is a mirror on the table!
8) I used my M Life Card. I got it at the desk there. I lose $3,000.00 in minutes and the pit boss refuses to comp me!!! I was dressed like a movie star. This guys comes over and stares me down. When I asked about comps he puts the card on my table like “fuck you” and walks away. Yes I was super pissed and I think that’s understandable. There is NO WAY a dealer could play THAT WELL UNLESS THEY WERE CHEATING! I say the cards on the tables and NEVER saw her shuffle them! I just assumed she did.
9) The environment ruined my counting. I was reduced to a nervous wreck. I was fumbling, behind on the count, the dealer was rude, the pit boss knew (and for some reason let me continue) and this was just an overall awful experience. A total waste of time. This is the last time I will gamble. I’m just going to focus on my business. At least there when I lose $3,000.00 I can file in court.
10) Think about this next time you tell everyone to play at the MGM Grand. All the Stand on soft 17 tables were $100.00 minimums. On a Sunday night no less! The non shuffling, the covering up of the tables so you have to ASK if they are hitting on 17 (what tourist asks that question) the god dammed mirror, the crowd, the rude dealer giving suggestions while looking at her mirror (AKA cheating) and losing $3,000.00 in what felt like minutes WITH PERFECT BASIC STRATEGY PLAY was the worst most wasteful experience ever. This was a total waste of time and money! Not to mention the airfare, hotels, outrageous prices of food and drink. I’m never coming here again!
Losing $3,000 in a matter of minutes gives you every right to rant. I get it. I’ve been there.
What should we take away from this? One main thing:
Anyone who tells you that card counting is easy is either lying, or hasn’t done it enough to know the reality of it.
Learning to beat the game mathematically is pretty easy. It is in fact the easiest part of all.
Any reasonably dedicated person can learn the skills needed to count cards and beat the game at their kitchen table.
So, what makes counting hard? All the other stuff:
Oh, and did I mention the losing streaks? 🙂
You can count perfectly, bet perfectly, and play perfectly, and still sometimes lose day after day.
A bad losing streak can run into hundreds of hours. To survive that kind of brutal run and still be able to play correctly is not easy.
The edge in card counting is small. Very small. Under 1% small. Yes, if you play long enough, you’re almost guaranteed to make money. But it can be a very long haul. There are easier ways to make a living. And, there are also easier ways to make money in the casino. The problem is, almost none of those other methods are as “easy” as card counting to learn and exploit. And there is something crucial about going through the process with card counting that gives you the experience necessary to thrive in the casino environment.
I don’t know any successful gamblers who didn’t count cards at one time, and I still know a few, bless their souls, that are still exclusively counters.
It seems mandatory to the education of an advantage player to spend that time in the trenches grinding out a 1% edge or less. You learn to respect the variance, you learn to handle the inevitable losing streaks, and you learn how to handle yourself in the casino. All these skills are worth more than the money you’ll hopefully win along the way.
Now, back to your story… There are a few issues that should be cleared up.
The “mirror” you’re talking about is a peek device. The dealer cannot see the value of the down card, but can only tell whether they have a blackjack. (Next time look at the special marks on the Aces and ten-valued cards, and notice how the dealer inserts the cards differently if their up card is a ten or Ace.) So, the dealer doesn’t have any more information than you after she peeks. Any advice the dealer offers in any circumstance should be ignored anyway. You know a lot more about the game than they do, despite their oft-stated opinions.
Anytime you’re uncomfortable at the table, or going on tilt, get outta there. You won’t do yourself any favors by playing when you’re less than calm, cool, and collected.
If you think that the pit knows you are counting, get outta there. Staying will just allow them to confirm their suspicions.
If you’re losing more than you’re comfortable with, get outta there. If you are losing the count, even once, it’s time to go.
Not everyone has the will (read: stubbornness) to make counting work. Different people have different tolerance levels for all the crap that comes with counting. For me, dealing with back-offs and hostile pit people was very disturbing. That’s one of the reasons I don’t play blackjack nearly as often as I did before. But I still find plenty of opportunities in the casino environment, actually more than ever.
The last particular of your story that I will address is the “14 dealer blackjacks”. I’m going to guess that you didn’t mean to imply that happened over the span of the same “few minutes” as your $3k loss. A typical table will deal about 60 hands an hour if crowded. Let’s give them 80 hands to be generous. How often should a dealer get 14 or more blackjacks in the next 80 hands? The odds are over 40,000 to 1 against. I’m also going to assume that the game you played was absolutely on the square, and you didn’t see those 14 blackjacks over the course of an hour or two. I can understand the urge to exaggerate the description under the circumstances. I just didn’t want to gloss over that stat without commenting on it.
So, should you throw in the towel, chalk up your $3k loss as an idea that didn’t work out, and never look back? Maybe. It would not be an unreasonable decision. Just realize that if you do choose to come back to the game, at some point you’ll have a similarly brutal beating again. And it won’t be any fun then either.
Ken, I just returned from Las Vegas and $10-$15 blackjack tables at The Mirage are converting to 6:5 Blackjack payoffs, no surrender, dealers hitting a soft 17 and continuous shuffle machines are becoming the norm. I did find a $25 BJ table, 6 deck shoe, hand shuffled with 3:2 Blackjack payoffs with the surrender option.
Folks really need to read the table rules BEFORE they sit down and play. I went to Foxwoods yesterday and the BJ rules there remain quite liberal.