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Buy insurance at a true count of +3. (+2 in single deck.)
Split TTv5 at +5. Split TTv6 at +4. However, ten splits probably aren’t worth the extra attention they draw for most players.
Whether it’s worth splitting tens or not really depends on where you are playing, and how likely you are to have trouble because of it. If it causes you to get backed off, it’s certainly not worth it, no matter the count.
I don’t have surrender index numbers handy at the moment, so I’m no help on the latter question.
You also ask in another comment about whether you should play one hand or multiple hands at TC+10. Spreading to multiple hands has lots of benefits, so if you can, it’s probably a good thing. You don’t need a rare true count of +10 to do it either. 🙂
“Backed off” means you get the tap on your shoulder, and are told you can play other games, but are no longer allowed to play blackjack. If you are playing the game with an advantage, you can count on this happening sometime in your career, probably pretty early. It’s a cat and mouse game.
HI KEN!what is the meaning of advantage?for example,when true count is 5 the advantage is 2.0%x76%,equal to 1.5%,is that means we have 51.5%/48.5% Winrate,or just 50.75%/49.25% winrate?thank you very much!
Don’t bother trying to think about blackjack in terms of win rates, because it’s more complicated than that.
If we were betting on a coin flip, then an advantage of 1.5% would imply 50.75%/49.25%. But with blackjack your win rate never reaches 50%. You make your extra money because of splits, doubles and blackjacks. It’s complicated. Just know that if you have an edge of 1.5%, your expected long-run profit is $1.50 for every $100 you bet.
The advantage increases by 0.5% per true count. I can see that the table above is a bit confusing. Under the advantage column, just ignore the “X 0.76%” part. That just shows how he is converting the advantage at each true count to the optimal bet which is shown in the final columns. The 0.76% comes from the Kelly ratio based on the variance of blackjack.
Hi ken !!thanks for the advise.after only one week of hard training i can keep follow easy the rc and many times to estimate the correct amount of cards that are in the tray so i am going to stick to the hi-lo.i see now how logical was your words that in now time the maximum target is just to make the correct betting for each hand based on the tc.after when i will be ready i will start thinking of deviations in b.s based on the index numbers.thanks for the response
Ken Smith hi again.sorry if i write in a wrong section but i want to ask two things.when the true count is high and its time for us to bet as back counters or betting more like players on the the table and there are three or five bases/players we bet where for better results ?first base ?the last one?or it dont matter.?second guestion i have read that to survive the long run and play all good luck and bad luck we need 50 times the max bet.if i decide to play flat bet of 5dollars it means that i need 250 dollars.right?at this fynny amount of money what profit per hour can u gain?000000.1 cents ????.and last in another post u answered me that its not how much hours a counter can play continiusly but how much he should play?please inlight us.if he plays more or less hours what the results?thanks for your time !!
It doesn’t matter which seat at the table you choose. The only difference is that you get to see a few more cards before making your decision if you sit at third base. But that effect is a minor one.
For your other question, you ask about bankroll needed to flat-bet $5, and how much profit that will yield. I assume you mean you will play only in positive counts, otherwise there of course will be no expected profit. How much earn per hour? Not much. Off the top of my head I would estimate that a $5 flat bet in positive counts might yield around 50 cents an hour in expected win. And you’ll still need that $250 bank you asked about to weather the ups and downs. Your final question about results based on hours, it’s a straight linear relationship. 10 hours will earn 10 times what 1 hour will.
Also when one player wants to play with just the maths and overcome the good and the bad luck i cant understand how much time is needed in continious game?or should i think not in time but in hands??and i cant understand if the tables or the cazino have united memory !i mean that if i play 10 days in the row every day of 5hours each day and i loose every time for those 10 days and i decide to go after on month for 10days again of 5hours each day the maths those days will have to give me profit ????
All these with spread 5 /60 ????? If yes for each tc plus 1i raise two betting unit ?if was playing 10/100 spread that woud be twice times the numbers up?
Given that you were only spreading 1:6 in a six or eight deck game, you weren’t playing with an edge at all. And you were playing at a really big disadvantage when you switched to the 6:5 game. If you had instead been spreading maybe 1:12 in this game (and never played the 6:5 game), I would break down your $9K in profit as roughly $500 skill, $8500 luck.
You mention that you have mastered Hi-Lo, but it sounds like you still need to learn a lot. No worries, we all started where you are.
Just for reference, card counting will usually yield about 1 to 1.5 units an hour in expected profit. If you are spreading $25 to $300, that means making $25 to $40 per hour. Of course your actual results will be all over the place, easily up or down $3000 in a session.
Machine shuffles or hand shuffles don’t materially affect the game, except for more advanced techniques. Any trends you have noticed as a result are just noise.
No peek means that the dealer does not check for blackjack before the players complete their hands. It also applies in games where the dealer does not take a second card until all players are done. The reason it affects the strategy is because in the typical US-style peek game, players know for sure that dealer does not have a blackjack before making a decision to split or double down. In a no-peek game those moves are riskier against a dealer ten or ace, because you may lose all of the bets to a dealer blackjack.
hi admin!!when should we buy insurance?thank you so much~~
Buy insurance at a true count of +3. (+2 in single deck.)
Split TTv5 at +5. Split TTv6 at +4. However, ten splits probably aren’t worth the extra attention they draw for most players.
thank you very much!you are so kind!Do you mean split ttv6 is not worth even at a true count of 10?
besides, can you tell me when should we surrender while 17vs10 and 18vs10,A5vs10,A6VS10,A7VS10?thank you!!!!
Whether it’s worth splitting tens or not really depends on where you are playing, and how likely you are to have trouble because of it. If it causes you to get backed off, it’s certainly not worth it, no matter the count.
I don’t have surrender index numbers handy at the moment, so I’m no help on the latter question.
You also ask in another comment about whether you should play one hand or multiple hands at TC+10. Spreading to multiple hands has lots of benefits, so if you can, it’s probably a good thing. You don’t need a rare true count of +10 to do it either. 🙂
thank you so much!but what is the meaning of “If it causes you to get backed off”,can you explain it?thank you^^
“Backed off” means you get the tap on your shoulder, and are told you can play other games, but are no longer allowed to play blackjack. If you are playing the game with an advantage, you can count on this happening sometime in your career, probably pretty early. It’s a cat and mouse game.
hi Ken Smith!when we are at a true count of +10,we should play one bet or several bets in one game?thank you so much~~~~~
HI KEN!what is the meaning of advantage?for example,when true count is 5 the advantage is 2.0%x76%,equal to 1.5%,is that means we have 51.5%/48.5% Winrate,or just 50.75%/49.25% winrate?thank you very much!
Don’t bother trying to think about blackjack in terms of win rates, because it’s more complicated than that.
If we were betting on a coin flip, then an advantage of 1.5% would imply 50.75%/49.25%. But with blackjack your win rate never reaches 50%. You make your extra money because of splits, doubles and blackjacks. It’s complicated. Just know that if you have an edge of 1.5%, your expected long-run profit is $1.50 for every $100 you bet.
hi ken!I have seen other forum posts,says increase tc+1 has 0.5%advantage,instead of 0.5%x76%,Which one is right?thank you very much~~~~
The advantage increases by 0.5% per true count. I can see that the table above is a bit confusing. Under the advantage column, just ignore the “X 0.76%” part. That just shows how he is converting the advantage at each true count to the optimal bet which is shown in the final columns. The 0.76% comes from the Kelly ratio based on the variance of blackjack.
Hi ken !!thanks for the advise.after only one week of hard training i can keep follow easy the rc and many times to estimate the correct amount of cards that are in the tray so i am going to stick to the hi-lo.i see now how logical was your words that in now time the maximum target is just to make the correct betting for each hand based on the tc.after when i will be ready i will start thinking of deviations in b.s based on the index numbers.thanks for the response
Ken Smith hi again.sorry if i write in a wrong section but i want to ask two things.when the true count is high and its time for us to bet as back counters or betting more like players on the the table and there are three or five bases/players we bet where for better results ?first base ?the last one?or it dont matter.?second guestion i have read that to survive the long run and play all good luck and bad luck we need 50 times the max bet.if i decide to play flat bet of 5dollars it means that i need 250 dollars.right?at this fynny amount of money what profit per hour can u gain?000000.1 cents ????.and last in another post u answered me that its not how much hours a counter can play continiusly but how much he should play?please inlight us.if he plays more or less hours what the results?thanks for your time !!
It doesn’t matter which seat at the table you choose. The only difference is that you get to see a few more cards before making your decision if you sit at third base. But that effect is a minor one.
For your other question, you ask about bankroll needed to flat-bet $5, and how much profit that will yield. I assume you mean you will play only in positive counts, otherwise there of course will be no expected profit. How much earn per hour? Not much. Off the top of my head I would estimate that a $5 flat bet in positive counts might yield around 50 cents an hour in expected win. And you’ll still need that $250 bank you asked about to weather the ups and downs. Your final question about results based on hours, it’s a straight linear relationship. 10 hours will earn 10 times what 1 hour will.
0.76 i think is for canculating the optimum bet based on your true count.
Also when one player wants to play with just the maths and overcome the good and the bad luck i cant understand how much time is needed in continious game?or should i think not in time but in hands??and i cant understand if the tables or the cazino have united memory !i mean that if i play 10 days in the row every day of 5hours each day and i loose every time for those 10 days and i decide to go after on month for 10days again of 5hours each day the maths those days will have to give me profit ????
Is this also for european bj?
All these with spread 5 /60 ????? If yes for each tc plus 1i raise two betting unit ?if was playing 10/100 spread that woud be twice times the numbers up?
Given that you were only spreading 1:6 in a six or eight deck game, you weren’t playing with an edge at all. And you were playing at a really big disadvantage when you switched to the 6:5 game. If you had instead been spreading maybe 1:12 in this game (and never played the 6:5 game), I would break down your $9K in profit as roughly $500 skill, $8500 luck.
You mention that you have mastered Hi-Lo, but it sounds like you still need to learn a lot. No worries, we all started where you are.
Just for reference, card counting will usually yield about 1 to 1.5 units an hour in expected profit. If you are spreading $25 to $300, that means making $25 to $40 per hour. Of course your actual results will be all over the place, easily up or down $3000 in a session.
Machine shuffles or hand shuffles don’t materially affect the game, except for more advanced techniques. Any trends you have noticed as a result are just noise.
No peek means that the dealer does not check for blackjack before the players complete their hands. It also applies in games where the dealer does not take a second card until all players are done. The reason it affects the strategy is because in the typical US-style peek game, players know for sure that dealer does not have a blackjack before making a decision to split or double down. In a no-peek game those moves are riskier against a dealer ten or ace, because you may lose all of the bets to a dealer blackjack.