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I’d like some help with my reasoning of the cut card effect on a shoe game. I am used to playing a shoe game using eight decks, with the cut card placed about three decks from the end, so only five of the eight decks are dealt.
It seems to me that with this setup, the cut card helps the players. If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, more hands are dealt. If it is rich in low cards, fewer hands are dealt. Therefore, the players get to play more hands when the shoe is favorable, and fewer hands when it is unfavorable. Thus, with only five-deck penetration in an eight deck shoe, it looks like the cut card benefits the basic strategy player.
Here’s a great page on the cut card effect and the impact it has: https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm I see why your version sounds plausible, but it’s not quite what happens. Think of it this way instead… If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, you are more likely to have to play an extra hand or two after all those good cards are already gone. Note that the effect is not dependent on any particular penetration. It exists any time the game uses a fixed shuffle point.
Thanks for creating this great website and I like the discussion here as well.
my local casinos use machine shuffle for all $5 min tables(shuffle ever one deck), hand shuffle for $10 min tables. I have to sit at $10 table if I am going to counting,but if I only have $1,000 bankroll, do your have some strategy for the people who don’t have enough bankroll to play? or should I wait until I get $10,000 bankroll?
I answered a similar question recently here: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-08-money-management-part-2/#comment-23543 The idea of taking a shot with a too-small bankroll is often referred to as a “Hail Mary” bankroll. If you are willing to accept the risk of losing it all and then having to raise another bank, it’s a viable plan. Just don’t get yourself into a situation where you don’t have enough bankroll left to split and double appropriately.
Mr. Ryan I love to hear from Ken about your question. But I will give you my two cents worth of opinion. It’s just back luck!! Johnny can took away the good card from dealer and make you win that hand too. Then you will be $2000 ahead. Then you should quit going to casino forever, so that you will be ahead $2000 , because that will be your last hand playing blackjack. Good luck!
Hi Ken, I dont get it 12 vs. 5 stand at – 1 or higher what i understand too many cards in the decks so i need to hit again is that the correct move? And what why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?thanks
Just to describe it more fully… With 12v5, if the true count is worse than -1, you should hit. That means at negative true counts such as -2 or -3, you should hit. The negative count is telling you that there are excess small cards left, decreasing the chance that you will bust by hitting, and also decreasing the chance that the dealer will bust. At a true count of -1 or better (-1, 0, +1, etc), you should stand. Note that this corresponds with basic strategy, which says to stand with 12v5.
You also asked “Why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?” If I understand the question correctly, just think back to the number line in school where you probably first saw negative numbers… -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5. So yes, -1 is higher than -3.
I recently had some feedback from “LV Bear” suggesting that using the terms “better” or “worse”, would be less confusing for some readers than “higher” or “lower”. I agree. If I revamp the GameMaster’s lessons, I will likely make that switch.
I have another question, I just find out that in your lesson 20 you play $10 min with a $3,000 bankroll. does $3,000 bankroll can be enough for all the loss in one session if I can count and play properly with 1-6 spread ? do I have to take $3,000 cash in my pocket when I am going to play?(silly question for sure but like to know) Thanks,
Ive been playing on your trainer web getting ready to go to the casino. I noticed that amount won many times is not added to the total. I thoutht maybe I was making a mistake but after careful watching of several hundred hands I confirmed that to be the case. Kind of makes me wonder if the rest of the software has a problem. Check it out and let me know what gives. Great website otherwise.
No, there is no problem with the paying of winning hands in the free game. The confusion comes from the way that your balance increases after the hand, and then immediately decreases again as the next bet is automatically made. Many people only notice the second part and think their balance is going down after a winning hand.
Hi Ken My casino here has the rules for blackjack: 6 decks, CSM, D any 2 cards, DAS, soft 17 ,early surrender, no peak,but no surrender if banker has A . Your basic strategy engine says the banker has the edge of -.08%. That mean that the player has .08% against the banker? Thanks.
If you had full early surrender, including against an Ace, that would be correct. The player would have a small advantage. However, since you cannot surrender against an Ace, that adds back about 0.4% to the house edge, so the effective total is a house advantage of approximately 0.32%.
Hmm, I haven’t thought about this particular question before, and I am not certain how much reduction of bankroll risk would result from playing only in positive counts. But, off the top of my head, I suspect it doesn’t help all that much. Because most of the variance in counting already comes in positive counts (because you are betting quite a bit more in plus counts), eliminating the minimum bet hands in negative counts isn’t going to make much difference. Sorry!
For 8,8Vs10, do you stand at 8 and higher or is it specifically just at 8? Also, for 9,9Vs7, do you split at 6 and higher or is it specifically just at 6?
I don’t know why the GameMaster did not explicitly state “or higher” on those indexes. Yes, 88vT stand at +8 or higher, and 99v7 split at +6 or higher.
I think this has been answered often enough in the comments on this thread. But, being ever the optimist, I’ll make one more foray into it… People who think that third base can effect their chances are basically espousing this belief: “If the dealer gets the next card off the deck, all is well, but if the dealer gets the second card off the deck instead (after third base takes a card), the dealer is more likely to beat the whole table.” Surely when I state it that way you can see that this is nonsense. If not, well, just believe whatever you like and we’ll leave it at that.
The GameMaster originally used these lessons in a weekly course, so one lesson a week is a reasonable plan. However, since the material varies widely in its breadth lesson by lesson, you can easily just adapt the schedule to your progress.
I’d like some help with my reasoning of the cut card effect on a shoe game. I am used to playing a shoe game using eight decks, with the cut card placed about three decks from the end, so only five of the eight decks are dealt.
It seems to me that with this setup, the cut card helps the players. If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, more hands are dealt. If it is rich in low cards, fewer hands are dealt. Therefore, the players get to play more hands when the shoe is favorable, and fewer hands when it is unfavorable. Thus, with only five-deck penetration in an eight deck shoe, it looks like the cut card benefits the basic strategy player.
Am I missing something?
Here’s a great page on the cut card effect and the impact it has:
https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackeffects1.htm
I see why your version sounds plausible, but it’s not quite what happens. Think of it this way instead… If the front of the shoe is rich in high cards, you are more likely to have to play an extra hand or two after all those good cards are already gone.
Note that the effect is not dependent on any particular penetration. It exists any time the game uses a fixed shuffle point.
Hi Ken,
Thanks for creating this great website and I like the discussion here as well.
my local casinos use machine shuffle for all $5 min tables(shuffle ever one deck), hand shuffle for $10 min tables.
I have to sit at $10 table if I am going to counting,but if I only have $1,000 bankroll, do your have some strategy for the people who don’t have enough bankroll to play? or should I wait until I get $10,000 bankroll?
I answered a similar question recently here:
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-school/lesson-08-money-management-part-2/#comment-23543
The idea of taking a shot with a too-small bankroll is often referred to as a “Hail Mary” bankroll. If you are willing to accept the risk of losing it all and then having to raise another bank, it’s a viable plan. Just don’t get yourself into a situation where you don’t have enough bankroll left to split and double appropriately.
Mr. Ryan
I love to hear from Ken about your question. But I will give you my two cents worth of opinion. It’s just back luck!! Johnny can took away the good card from dealer and make you win that hand too. Then you will be $2000 ahead. Then you should quit going to casino forever, so that you will be ahead $2000 , because that will be your last hand playing blackjack. Good luck!
Hi Ken,
I dont get it 12 vs. 5 stand at – 1 or higher what i understand too many cards in the decks so i need to hit again is that the correct move? And what why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?thanks
Just to describe it more fully… With 12v5, if the true count is worse than -1, you should hit. That means at negative true counts such as -2 or -3, you should hit. The negative count is telling you that there are excess small cards left, decreasing the chance that you will bust by hitting, and also decreasing the chance that the dealer will bust. At a true count of -1 or better (-1, 0, +1, etc), you should stand. Note that this corresponds with basic strategy, which says to stand with 12v5.
You also asked “Why is it -1 count is higher than -3 or above?” If I understand the question correctly, just think back to the number line in school where you probably first saw negative numbers… -5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +4, +5. So yes, -1 is higher than -3.
I recently had some feedback from “LV Bear” suggesting that using the terms “better” or “worse”, would be less confusing for some readers than “higher” or “lower”. I agree. If I revamp the GameMaster’s lessons, I will likely make that switch.
Thank you very much for your prompt replying.
I have another question, I just find out that in your lesson 20 you play $10 min with a $3,000 bankroll. does $3,000 bankroll can be enough for all the loss in one session if I can count and play properly with 1-6 spread ? do I have to take $3,000 cash in my pocket when I am going to play?(silly question for sure but like to know) Thanks,
You will not need $3000 in one session with a max bet of $60. I would recommend $1000.
Ive been playing on your trainer web getting ready to go to the casino. I noticed that amount won many times is not added to the total. I thoutht maybe I was making a mistake but after careful watching of several hundred hands I confirmed that to be the case. Kind of makes me wonder if the rest of the software has a problem.
Check it out and let me know what gives. Great website otherwise.
No, there is no problem with the paying of winning hands in the free game. The confusion comes from the way that your balance increases after the hand, and then immediately decreases again as the next bet is automatically made. Many people only notice the second part and think their balance is going down after a winning hand.
Hi Ken
My casino here has the rules for blackjack: 6 decks, CSM, D any 2 cards, DAS, soft 17 ,early surrender, no peak,but no surrender if banker has A . Your basic strategy engine says the banker has the edge of -.08%. That mean that the player has .08% against the banker?
Thanks.
If you had full early surrender, including against an Ace, that would be correct. The player would have a small advantage.
However, since you cannot surrender against an Ace, that adds back about 0.4% to the house edge, so the effective total is a house advantage of approximately 0.32%.
Thank you Mr. Smith. Now I know why I am still losing!! Ha Ha !
Hi Ken,
have a question. if i play only with positive counts (TC>=2), my bankroll could be smaller than 50 top bets adviced in this lesson?
Hmm, I haven’t thought about this particular question before, and I am not certain how much reduction of bankroll risk would result from playing only in positive counts. But, off the top of my head, I suspect it doesn’t help all that much. Because most of the variance in counting already comes in positive counts (because you are betting quite a bit more in plus counts), eliminating the minimum bet hands in negative counts isn’t going to make much difference. Sorry!
For 8,8Vs10, do you stand at 8 and higher or is it specifically just at 8?
Also, for 9,9Vs7, do you split at 6 and higher or is it specifically just at 6?
I don’t know why the GameMaster did not explicitly state “or higher” on those indexes.
Yes, 88vT stand at +8 or higher, and 99v7 split at +6 or higher.
I think this has been answered often enough in the comments on this thread. But, being ever the optimist, I’ll make one more foray into it…
People who think that third base can effect their chances are basically espousing this belief: “If the dealer gets the next card off the deck, all is well, but if the dealer gets the second card off the deck instead (after third base takes a card), the dealer is more likely to beat the whole table.” Surely when I state it that way you can see that this is nonsense. If not, well, just believe whatever you like and we’ll leave it at that.
The GameMaster originally used these lessons in a weekly course, so one lesson a week is a reasonable plan. However, since the material varies widely in its breadth lesson by lesson, you can easily just adapt the schedule to your progress.