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That would make sense on the surface of it. But I seem to recall reading that there are decisions with the direction reversed. (In tables, they are marked with an asterisk.) So it seems that, no matter how you go about it, you need two pieces of information. Index and normal/reversed; or basic decision and index of change.
Nothing is currently listed for the next few months in Atlantic City at https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/tournaments/ (At least as I write this in April 2015) I don’t know why blackjack tournaments never were a big part of marketing in NJ, but they are more rare in that part of the country.
Are you asking about a rule that pays you for having 5 cards and not busting? This kind of “5-card Charlie” rule would be unusual to find in a casino as it adds well over 1% for the player. 6-card and 7-card automatic wins are found sometimes, though they are far less valuable. The free Windows software at this site will analyze these rules for you, including optimal strategy and the effect on the game. Here’s the link: Free BJ Combinatorial Software
The 6:5 was very sneaky by the casinos. Slowly but surely, it is catching on like wildfire and why not, it is saving casinos thousands. Sure for the average gambler it doesn’t sound like a lot, but it adds up…quickly. Also if the dealer has an Ace up and you have a natural blackjack, no more even money. Even the dealers hate the rules as it normally decreases their odds of a better tip. This is just another attempt to water down and make a circus game of Blackjack. Spanish BJ, dealer cards delt face up, single deck with multiple rules. I agree…talk to the pitboss or floor manager and at a minimum, the dealer. Bottom line…have fun, but don’t give the money back to the casino because they have decided to manipulate the rules in their favor!
I’m not sure of the specific spot where I discouraged play at less than 75% penetration, but it really depends on the other rules. In six and eight deck games, it’s tough to get much of an edge at less than 75% penetration, and most players would consider that the borderline between games worth playing and not worth playing. In double-deck on the other hand, 75% is a great game. In fact, I’ve played lots of 50-60% penetration double deck over the years.
Dealer Stands on Soft 17; Double any card; Double after split Ok; Later Surrender; Ofter insurance on dealer Ace; 8 Decks; penetration 75%; I can stay out , counting to enter the game at any time; Tables from 5 to 500; 10 to 1.000; 25 to 3.000; 100 to 10.000;
Your advantage is going to heavily depend on your bet spread, and the bet ramp. Two recommendations: CVData software, to accurately sim any game and counting system, or the book Blackjack Attack for a ton of pre-figured stats on many games.
If they’re giving you $2000 to show up, you should certainly take that, unless it means playing at substantially higher stakes than usual, or for longer hours. Which table? What betting? Those questions are going to depend on your edge and how willing you are to play with an advantage for these long periods. See my other reply for advice on software or books to answer those questions.
By far the easiest way to get definitive answers for these kinds of questions is to use sim results. Although I understand that it is expensive ($160) when you’re trying to build a bankroll, I think the CVData software from Qfit.com is a wise investment.
That clears things up. I will strive for 1/4 Kelly and probably wait awhile longer until I have a larger bank behind me.
I have used various charts and graphs available to me through blackjackforum and qfit to find that my risk of ruin is slightly over 5%, which makes sense using Uston’s 5% curve as an estimation but I’m unsure on my standard deviation per 100 hands. Any idea how I can calculate/where I can find that number? Also, the dd game available to me deals 65% of the cards and I’m using zen with indexes -4 to 12. This should be a bit better than the game in your scenario, but any help I can get on the calculations would be much appreciated.
Your understanding of the Kelly bet being reduced because of the variance is accurate, although your use of the abbreviation “KC” in your post is not quite right. The Kelly Criterion already by its definition includes the 76% factor. If you had a different game where bets have a variance of 1.0, the Kelly Criterion would have you bet 100% of your edge as a percentage of the bankroll. Blackjack’s higher variance makes the Kelly Criterion number only 76% of your edge for blackjack bets.
Most people find Kelly too aggressive for their taste, and I agree. I recommend 1/4 Kelly if possible. For small bankrolls, that is really not practical for the very reasons you mention. Table minimums are going to restrict your ability to even stick with full Kelly sometimes.
(I will point out that many players with a supposed bankroll of $5000 are actually willing to lose it and raise another bank to try again. In that case, your real bankroll is effectively a lot more than $5000. That helps a lot!)
I don’t have a quick answer for your specific risk of ruin question on the double deck $10 scenario, and I’m too pressed for time at the moment to delve into the details. Maybe early next week I’ll have a chance to take a look.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is how I interpreted your response. The 76% KC comes from the fact that blackjack has a higher variance than many other investments. So essentially, due to splits and dd’s, playing 76% KC in blackjack has the same risk/reward as full KC in investments where the initial bet and risk for that bet are known upfront.
If that’s true, then isn’t playing at 76% KC too risky for someone with a $4000/$5000 bankroll since it’s pretty difficult to find a table with less than a $5 min. I get that this question is relative to one’s risk aversity and whether or not that bank is replenishable. So I’ll phrase my question this way: would you recommend playing a smaller fraction of the KC if the bank was non replenishable?
I think kel was referring to making calculations regarding her bank at 33% KC, as to keep her risk of ruin very low. I’ve seen recommendations of anywhere from 25%KC to 80%KC for making betting calculations. I’m sure the latter is just a rounded version of your calculation and the former I read in Snyder’s Blackbelt in BJ. I don’t understand what difference it makes if they both have a theoretical RoR of 0%. My two guesses would be avoiding problems with table minimums and for mental peace of mind as bank fluctuations will be a much smaller percentage of your total bank with a lower percentage KC.
A final follow up question. Assuming your double deck scenario in later lessons, what would you estimate the risk of ruin to be for your betting scheme assuming one starts with the $5000 bank you made the calculations with, but the table minimum is $10. Obviously if my bank starts on a downswing, there isn’t much room for me to recalculate, so I would have to play it out far above my kelly calculations for any bank that dropped under $5000 in order to keep a 1-8 spread.
I hope I worded my questions so that they make sense to everyone. I know I have a tendency to ramble.
Thanks for all your help. I love this site; it’s a very helpful source.
That would make sense on the surface of it. But I seem to recall reading that there are decisions with the direction reversed. (In tables, they are marked with an asterisk.) So it seems that, no matter how you go about it, you need two pieces of information. Index and normal/reversed; or basic decision and index of change.
are there any tournaments in atlantic city this year i can find any do you know of any
Nothing is currently listed for the next few months in Atlantic City at
https://www.blackjacktournaments.com/tournaments/
(At least as I write this in April 2015)
I don’t know why blackjack tournaments never were a big part of marketing in NJ, but they are more rare in that part of the country.
I am looking for information on 5 cards and under. Is there a rule that applies to this?
Are you asking about a rule that pays you for having 5 cards and not busting? This kind of “5-card Charlie” rule would be unusual to find in a casino as it adds well over 1% for the player. 6-card and 7-card automatic wins are found sometimes, though they are far less valuable.
The free Windows software at this site will analyze these rules for you, including optimal strategy and the effect on the game.
Here’s the link: Free BJ Combinatorial Software
The 6:5 was very sneaky by the casinos. Slowly but surely, it is catching on like wildfire and why not, it is saving casinos thousands. Sure for the average gambler it doesn’t sound like a lot, but it adds up…quickly. Also if the dealer has an Ace up and you have a natural blackjack, no more even money. Even the dealers hate the rules as it normally decreases their odds of a better tip. This is just another attempt to water down and make a circus game of Blackjack. Spanish BJ, dealer cards delt face up, single deck with multiple rules. I agree…talk to the pitboss or floor manager and at a minimum, the dealer. Bottom line…have fun, but don’t give the money back to the casino because they have decided to manipulate the rules in their favor!
Ken, you say that penetration menorr that 75% do not pay.
You can explain?
I’m not sure of the specific spot where I discouraged play at less than 75% penetration, but it really depends on the other rules. In six and eight deck games, it’s tough to get much of an edge at less than 75% penetration, and most players would consider that the borderline between games worth playing and not worth playing. In double-deck on the other hand, 75% is a great game. In fact, I’ve played lots of 50-60% penetration double deck over the years.
Hello and thanks,
after this explanation I understand that the 76% should be taken as a not changing fixed percentage.
Also Thanks for the explanation of the 1/4 with is interesting for me in EU as well.
Ken,
I found the following game:
Dealer Stands on Soft 17;
Double any card;
Double after split Ok;
Later Surrender;
Ofter insurance on dealer Ace;
8 Decks;
penetration 75%;
I can stay out , counting to enter the game at any time;
Tables from 5 to 500; 10 to 1.000; 25 to 3.000; 100 to 10.000;
How to calculate my advantage as HI LO counter?
Your advantage is going to heavily depend on your bet spread, and the bet ramp. Two recommendations: CVData software, to accurately sim any game and counting system, or the book Blackjack Attack for a ton of pre-figured stats on many games.
Ken,
Will improve the question.
I have 20k and the casino still me the 10% commission on the deposit , plus expenses , since I play a minimum of 24 hours with media $ 200 bets .
Which table I sit ?
That betting should I do?
Should I worry about the commission ?
If they’re giving you $2000 to show up, you should certainly take that, unless it means playing at substantially higher stakes than usual, or for longer hours.
Which table? What betting? Those questions are going to depend on your edge and how willing you are to play with an advantage for these long periods. See my other reply for advice on software or books to answer those questions.
Can you recommend software for a MAC computer for Blackjack card counting?
Not really. The last time this subject came up on the forum, it ended up being mostly a discussion of how to run Windows software on the Mac.
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowledge-base/blackjack-card-counting/blackjack-software-for-mac/
I’m not sure why there has never been a good blackjack alternative native to the Mac.
And in Online Live Casinos? How does it work?
I am not ready to go to a real casino.
By far the easiest way to get definitive answers for these kinds of questions is to use sim results. Although I understand that it is expensive ($160) when you’re trying to build a bankroll, I think the CVData software from Qfit.com is a wise investment.
That clears things up. I will strive for 1/4 Kelly and probably wait awhile longer until I have a larger bank behind me.
I have used various charts and graphs available to me through blackjackforum and qfit to find that my risk of ruin is slightly over 5%, which makes sense using Uston’s 5% curve as an estimation but I’m unsure on my standard deviation per 100 hands. Any idea how I can calculate/where I can find that number? Also, the dd game available to me deals 65% of the cards and I’m using zen with indexes -4 to 12. This should be a bit better than the game in your scenario, but any help I can get on the calculations would be much appreciated.
Thanks again for all the help
Your understanding of the Kelly bet being reduced because of the variance is accurate, although your use of the abbreviation “KC” in your post is not quite right. The Kelly Criterion already by its definition includes the 76% factor. If you had a different game where bets have a variance of 1.0, the Kelly Criterion would have you bet 100% of your edge as a percentage of the bankroll. Blackjack’s higher variance makes the Kelly Criterion number only 76% of your edge for blackjack bets.
Most people find Kelly too aggressive for their taste, and I agree. I recommend 1/4 Kelly if possible. For small bankrolls, that is really not practical for the very reasons you mention. Table minimums are going to restrict your ability to even stick with full Kelly sometimes.
(I will point out that many players with a supposed bankroll of $5000 are actually willing to lose it and raise another bank to try again. In that case, your real bankroll is effectively a lot more than $5000. That helps a lot!)
I don’t have a quick answer for your specific risk of ruin question on the double deck $10 scenario, and I’m too pressed for time at the moment to delve into the details. Maybe early next week I’ll have a chance to take a look.
I would like to expand on kel’s question a bit.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is how I interpreted your response. The 76% KC comes from the fact that blackjack has a higher variance than many other investments. So essentially, due to splits and dd’s, playing 76% KC in blackjack has the same risk/reward as full KC in investments where the initial bet and risk for that bet are known upfront.
If that’s true, then isn’t playing at 76% KC too risky for someone with a $4000/$5000 bankroll since it’s pretty difficult to find a table with less than a $5 min. I get that this question is relative to one’s risk aversity and whether or not that bank is replenishable. So I’ll phrase my question this way: would you recommend playing a smaller fraction of the KC if the bank was non replenishable?
I think kel was referring to making calculations regarding her bank at 33% KC, as to keep her risk of ruin very low. I’ve seen recommendations of anywhere from 25%KC to 80%KC for making betting calculations. I’m sure the latter is just a rounded version of your calculation and the former I read in Snyder’s Blackbelt in BJ. I don’t understand what difference it makes if they both have a theoretical RoR of 0%. My two guesses would be avoiding problems with table minimums and for mental peace of mind as bank fluctuations will be a much smaller percentage of your total bank with a lower percentage KC.
A final follow up question. Assuming your double deck scenario in later lessons, what would you estimate the risk of ruin to be for your betting scheme assuming one starts with the $5000 bank you made the calculations with, but the table minimum is $10. Obviously if my bank starts on a downswing, there isn’t much room for me to recalculate, so I would have to play it out far above my kelly calculations for any bank that dropped under $5000 in order to keep a 1-8 spread.
I hope I worded my questions so that they make sense to everyone. I know I have a tendency to ramble.
Thanks for all your help. I love this site; it’s a very helpful source.