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You can’t compare doubling vs hitting unless you also know the hit/lose/push probabilities for both. In the case of A2v4, those numbers are better when hitting than doubling. (There is likely a big reduction in loss percentage, and a big increase in pushes.) The double down charts simply do not include enough information to derive basic strategy from them, because they’re only part of the puzzle.
I was wondering how much it’s actually realistic to make assuming you make no major mistakes and you keep track of the count. Saying that the casino has a 1 % advantage they’ll win 51 hands and we’ll win 49. We say that we only have 2 bet sizes, 5 and 10, min and max. We say that we’ve been counting and betting higher when the count is high and lower when it’s low and we’ve come out with 51 L: 41 min + 10 max = -305. 49 W: 24 min + 25 max = 370 so on average for 100 hands we’ll have earnt 370-305 = 65. Saying we take the standard approach of initial money 40x max bet our initial capital is 400. 65/400 = aprox. 16% increase per 100 hands so if you take a conservative approach of 100 hands per hour you’ll have doubled your money in 6 hours. 16*6=96.
I just wanted your input on wether these numbers are reasonable and realistic or if not then what your thoughts are on eventual profits and how much you yourself would expect to make on an average night
Your estimates have a lot of problems. Even your first calculation of 51 vs 49 yields the wrong answer… That would be a 2% house edge, not 1%. But honestly, you can’t even come close to understanding blackjack with a simple wins/losses idea. It’s too complex for that kind of simplification.
My advice? Ditch all the manual calculations. If you want concrete numbers, either run the sims yourself using something like the CVData software, or buy a book like Blackjack Attack where all this work has been done for you.
The bottom line is far less lucrative than your estimates. Assuming decent conditions, a card counter’s advantage is usually around 1% of his total action. In 100 hands, your profit is probably a couple of your minimum bets. And you’ll need to spread far more than $5 to $10 to make any profit at all. (The house edge can’t be overcome with such a small spread.)
Something I noticed is that the dealer will still hit even if their first two cards have a greater total than mine and its under 17. No sane dealer in real life would hit when they already have a total greater than yours, right?
That’s the way the game works. The dealer must follow the strict rules on hitting, and cannot choose to stand on a stiff total just because he would beat you. For more, see Blackjack Rules.
So do I have to keep changing back and forth from real count to true count between making my decisions and counting or did I miss the part where one of courses touched on that point?
Yes, you maintain the running count, and then need to convert it to a true count for making betting and playing decisions. Fortunately, it is usually obvious what the play is, and you’re not constantly having to do the conversion. Instead, you’ll have a pretty good idea what the true count is already, and precision is only needed occasionally.
One more question, you only start counting after the deck has been reshuffled into the shoe correct? If you jump in midshoe, you would just play according to the table in Lesson 1 correct?
You can begin counting immediately even mid-shoe, but you must treat the already dealt cards in the discard tray as if they were behind the cut card in the shoe instead. Some people find adjusting for that to be confusing, and choose to just play basic strategy for the partial shoe instead. It’s not a big deal either way.
I didn’t get the 76% calculation. In the later lessons we learn to calculate the house edge. And we did three examples with the results 33%, 33% and 30%. Ho do we calculate now our bets? 80%-10×0.4%=76%???? for the mentioned above? and why?
The GameMaster is pretty sparse in his explanation of the 76% factor, though he mentions it briefly above. Here’s how he arrived at that number: A “Kelly” bet is Your Bankroll * (Your Edge / Variance). In blackjack, the variance is around 1.32. 1/1.32 = 76%. So instead of saying you should divide your bet by 1.32, he just multiplies it by .76 or 76% instead. Same effect. He’s taking your advantage and dividing by the variance before figuring the optimal bet.
(As for your other sentence mentioning the 33% stuff, I don’t quite understand what you’re asking.)
I was playing in Poland few month. So I can say the basic strategy, card counting, and other beting system really works my mounth profit was ~ 3000euro, ante was 3euro
your chart shows doubling a,2 vs 4 as win 49.4% and lose as46.0% but basic strategy chart does not show it as a double. what am I missing?
You can’t compare doubling vs hitting unless you also know the hit/lose/push probabilities for both. In the case of A2v4, those numbers are better when hitting than doubling. (There is likely a big reduction in loss percentage, and a big increase in pushes.) The double down charts simply do not include enough information to derive basic strategy from them, because they’re only part of the puzzle.
thanks, will try to find a chard on hitting with percentages
Google translation
Who supervises the casino ? Example: 6 or 8 decks with 75% penetration .
The casino could take 10 faces , illegally , without the counter notice ?
In Austria the pay 3:2 also on 777 which means always hit on 7,7 for the basic strategy, right?
But they use a CSM with 6 decks and a stack of max 2,5 decks. Is this game beatable?
Thanks for the BJ game. It’s a real good one. The black letters on the green are a little hard for me to see. Only problem I’ve noticed.
I was wondering how much it’s actually realistic to make assuming you make no major mistakes and you keep track of the count. Saying that the casino has a 1 % advantage they’ll win 51 hands and we’ll win 49. We say that we only have 2 bet sizes, 5 and 10, min and max. We say that we’ve been counting and betting higher when the count is high and lower when it’s low and we’ve come out with 51 L: 41 min + 10 max = -305. 49 W: 24 min + 25 max = 370 so on average for 100 hands we’ll have earnt 370-305 = 65. Saying we take the standard approach of initial money 40x max bet our initial capital is 400. 65/400 = aprox. 16% increase per 100 hands so if you take a conservative approach of 100 hands per hour you’ll have doubled your money in 6 hours. 16*6=96.
I just wanted your input on wether these numbers are reasonable and realistic or if not then what your thoughts are on eventual profits and how much you yourself would expect to make on an average night
Your estimates have a lot of problems. Even your first calculation of 51 vs 49 yields the wrong answer… That would be a 2% house edge, not 1%. But honestly, you can’t even come close to understanding blackjack with a simple wins/losses idea. It’s too complex for that kind of simplification.
My advice? Ditch all the manual calculations. If you want concrete numbers, either run the sims yourself using something like the CVData software, or buy a book like Blackjack Attack where all this work has been done for you.
The bottom line is far less lucrative than your estimates. Assuming decent conditions, a card counter’s advantage is usually around 1% of his total action. In 100 hands, your profit is probably a couple of your minimum bets. And you’ll need to spread far more than $5 to $10 to make any profit at all. (The house edge can’t be overcome with such a small spread.)
Something I noticed is that the dealer will still hit even if their first two cards have a greater total than mine and its under 17. No sane dealer in real life would hit when they already have a total greater than yours, right?
That’s the way the game works. The dealer must follow the strict rules on hitting, and cannot choose to stand on a stiff total just because he would beat you.
For more, see Blackjack Rules.
So do I have to keep changing back and forth from real count to true count between making my decisions and counting or did I miss the part where one of courses touched on that point?
Yes, you maintain the running count, and then need to convert it to a true count for making betting and playing decisions. Fortunately, it is usually obvious what the play is, and you’re not constantly having to do the conversion. Instead, you’ll have a pretty good idea what the true count is already, and precision is only needed occasionally.
One more question, you only start counting after the deck has been reshuffled into the shoe correct? If you jump in midshoe, you would just play according to the table in Lesson 1 correct?
You can begin counting immediately even mid-shoe, but you must treat the already dealt cards in the discard tray as if they were behind the cut card in the shoe instead. Some people find adjusting for that to be confusing, and choose to just play basic strategy for the partial shoe instead. It’s not a big deal either way.
To confirm, the count starts at zero when the shoe is shuffled again correct?
Thanks again for your help and patience!
Yes, reset the count to zero when they shuffle.
I didn’t get the 76% calculation. In the later lessons we learn to calculate the house edge. And we did three examples with the results 33%, 33% and 30%. Ho do we calculate now our bets? 80%-10×0.4%=76%???? for the mentioned above? and why?
The GameMaster is pretty sparse in his explanation of the 76% factor, though he mentions it briefly above.
Here’s how he arrived at that number:
A “Kelly” bet is Your Bankroll * (Your Edge / Variance).
In blackjack, the variance is around 1.32. 1/1.32 = 76%. So instead of saying you should divide your bet by 1.32, he just multiplies it by .76 or 76% instead. Same effect. He’s taking your advantage and dividing by the variance before figuring the optimal bet.
(As for your other sentence mentioning the 33% stuff, I don’t quite understand what you’re asking.)
Play alone or with your buddy
I was playing in Poland few month. So I can say the basic strategy, card counting, and other beting system really works my mounth profit was ~ 3000euro, ante was 3euro