100 unit buy in!

[KewlJ]

The show started off with many story lined based (at least losely) on real events. But as time went on....

The end point for me was when the new owner lady was on the roof, got caught in a gust of wind and flew several blocks down the strip crashing into The Wynn. At that point it was time to put that hour to better use each week.

 

[bjo32]

The show started off with many story lined based (at least losely) on real events. But as time went on....

The end point for me was when the new owner lady was on the roof, got caught in a gust of wind and flew several blocks down the strip crashing into The Wynn. At that point it was time to put that hour to better use each week.

Hey KewlJ, what do you think about this Joe guy who was recently on GWAE podcast saying he made something like $400,000 his first year playing bj. I thought his story sounded somewhat exaggerated. I get in theory it could happen, but I just don’t think many casinos are going to let someone play long enough to win that kind of money, especially with his aggressive playing style.

I’ve alway respected your honest straightforward answers so I’d be interested to know your take on his story, and Yoshi’s. Thanks!

 

[KewlJ]

Hey KewlJ, what do you think about this Joe guy.
I’ve alway respected your honest straightforward answers so I’d be interested to know your take on his story, and Yoshi’s. Thanks!

OMG! Do you know how much grief I have gotten the couple times I did voice my opinion about someone's claims/story?

I have called out a couple players that I find their stories/claims to be unlikely to impossible, but it is not something I do lightly. There were many more that I thought very unlikely that I said nothing. I have to feel like the claims and story are very negatively influencing and doing harm to other players/members (especially the newer players). In that case, I feel like it is not only the right, but the responsibility of legitimate players to call BS.

I think I have done so 3 times. One lead to me being banned at several forums and unable to participate and share my experiences. Another very recent situation lead to a player repeatedly threatening to come to Las Vegas, find me, kick my ass and out me to casino personnel. He even publicly threatened to shoot me. I had to file a report with Metro, just to protect myself in the event that I have to do whatever I have to do to protect myself.

So no, while I appreciate that you respect my opinion, this is not something I do regularly. Maybe 21forme or Don S will share their opinion. They are both pretty good at recognizing and calling out BS claims.

 

[KewlJ]

And don't read anything I said above into the situation with either party mentioned. I don't know either party. I know a little bit OF the claims, but not very much. I haven't even listened to either episode of GWAE. I keep meaning to but never seem to find the time, Perhaps now I will.

I will say this though, without knowing much detail of either claims, IIRC, Ryemo has vouched for Yoshi and his claims and I have great respect for Ryemo.

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

One of the first things for Steve or any new player to do is buying CVCX (must have, and this really isn`t even debatable) and running all the different RoR, n-zero, win rate, and standard deviation scenarios to absolute death. Not only because you need to know all that, but the emotional part of doing this is the most difficult in my opinion. So CVCX will help you to visualize the swings that will happen along the way, and you can think about how much stress this will put on you if you lose X amount. Therefore you can adjust how much you want to save up before going through with it. Everyone is different, but some of the swings will most likely make the average person feel way worse than they think it will.

Here`s another really helpful CVCX exercise I learned from someone on another forum: put in the average game conditions/spread that you`ll be playing. Then, in the bankroll input, keep altering that number until the RoR is exactly 50%. In my case, the amount was way, way bigger than I would have thought. Even with a bankroll with a RoR of 1%, this monetary amount will be a pretty substantial percentage of the total bank. So anyway it`ll be a coin flip that at some point you`ll lose that amount with that game/spread. Much more you can do with the software than that, but just as an example. In my case, I`ve been on a horrific run here lately and lost more than double the amount than in the example above. If I could do it all over again, I would have saved up 300 max bets before making a run at card counting.

 

[KewlJ]

One of the first things for Steve or any new player to do is buying CVCX (must have, and this really isn`t even debatable) and running all the different RoR, n-zero, win rate, and standard deviation scenarios to absolute death.

Agreed. 100%

If I could do it all over again, I would have saved up 300 max bets before making a run at card counting.

Just out of curiosity, what is the largest amount you have lost or had your bankroll "go backwards" in terms of # of max bets? Was it more than 100 max bets? More than 200? This would be largely influenced by the types of games and size of bet spread a player uses, but I am just curious.

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

Agreed. 100%



Just out of curiosity, what is the largest amount you have lost or had your bankroll "go backwards" in terms of # of max bets? Was it more than 100 max bets? More than 200? This would be largely influenced by the types of games and size of bet spread a player uses, but I am just curious.

I`ve lost somewhere around 65 max bets in the past two months. My starting bankroll represented more than 100 max bets though, and thankfully I was in the black at the time too. Still, the point of my post was that even though a big downswing won`t wipe you out, it may rattle you to your core. It`s an emotion that`s really not comparable to much in regular life, so it takes a long while to get used to I think. I remember you saying the 100 max bets for a bankroll suggestion of the past was way outdated, and I completely agree. The majority of games just aren`t good enough for 100 to be big enough if you`re trying to do it full time.

 

[KewlJ]

I`ve lost somewhere around 65 max bets in the past two months. My starting bankroll represented more than 100 max bets though, and thankfully I was in the black at the time too. Still, the point of my post was that even though a big downswing won`t wipe you out, it may rattle you to your core. It`s an emotion that`s really not comparable to much in regular life, so it takes a long while to get used to I think. I remember you saying the 100 max bets for a bankroll suggestion of the past was way outdated, and I completely agree. The majority of games just aren`t good enough for 100 to be big enough if you`re trying to do it full time.

Hey, I understand your point and agree 100%. I was just curious as to what your biggest down turn was since you have 300 max bets.

Funny thing is that while I too play to several hundred max bet BR, (with the ability to replace it), the most I have ever gone backwards is just about 100 max bets. It is a little hard for me to calculate because I use multiple different spreads and different top wagers, but figuring an average max bet of about $400, which seems about right, I have gone backwards between $30,000 and $40,000, 4 different times, with my biggest being just over 40 grand before I recovered.

So 100 max bets would have covered me all but 1 time and that 1 time 110 max bets would have covered me. So I am beginning to think the old 100 max bet rule wasn't as far off as we think. Of course, a player can't and wouldn't play down to his last max bet. But maybe all that extra that most serious players, play to is really just for our own comfort and the 100 max bet rule is closer than we think.

 

[bjo32]

OMG! Do you know how much grief I have gotten the couple times I did voice my opinion about someone's claims/story?

I have called out a couple players that I find their stories/claims to be unlikely to impossible, but it is not something I do lightly. There were many more that I thought very unlikely that I said nothing. I have to feel like the claims and story are very negatively influencing and doing harm to other players/members (especially the newer players). In that case, I feel like it is not only the right, but the responsibility of legitimate players to call BS.

I think I have done so 3 times. One lead to me being banned at several forums and unable to participate and share my experiences. Another very recent situation lead to a player repeatedly threatening to come to Las Vegas, find me, kick my ass and out me to casino personnel. He even publicly threatened to shoot me. I had to file a report with Metro, just to protect myself in the event that I have to do whatever I have to do to protect myself.

So no, while I appreciate that you respect my opinion, this is not something I do regularly. Maybe 21forme or Don S will share their opinion. They are both pretty good at recognizing and calling out BS claims.

I understand it’s not popular to call out other APs, especially ones on GWAE. But the Joe story had so many things that didn’t ring true that I wanted your take on it. This podcast is #358 on Bob Dancer’s web site. One of Joe’s stories that made no sense to me is the one where the casino had a relief dealer that was called in to take care of counters. It reminded me of a relief pitcher called in to get out some batter. This dealer could deal 700 rounds per hour. Yes, you heard me right. My problem with this story is not so much with the super duper fast dealer. Yes, I believe this might be possible. But I’ve never heard of a casino doing this as a countermeasure. If a casino doesn’t want you there, they back you off. They don’t call in super duper speed dealer. Lol

There are several other stories that I thought were exaggerated. Since you take a no-nonsense approach to this type of stuff I’d like your take on it. I understand if don’t want to do this.

As far as Yushi, I think he’s also exaggerated his story but not to the same extent as Joe. Yes, Reymo vouches for these guys, but he’s also their friends. This is what friends do. It should be remembered that most of their winnings were done solo so nobody but God and that person knows if their story is accurate and not embellished.

 

[KewlJ]

I understand it’s not popular to call out other APs, especially ones on GWAE. But the Joe story had so many things that didn’t ring true that I wanted your take on it. This podcast is #358 on Bob Dancer’s web site. One of Joe’s stories that made no sense to me is the one where the casino had a relief dealer that was called in to take care of counters. It reminded me of a relief pitcher called in to get out some batter. This dealer could deal 700 rounds per hour. Yes, you heard me right. My problem with this story is not so much with the super duper fast dealer. Yes, I believe this might be possible. But I’ve never heard of a casino doing this as a countermeasure. If a casino doesn’t want you there, they back you off. They don’t call in super duper speed dealer. Lol

There are several other stories that I thought were exaggerated. Since you take a no-nonsense approach to this type of stuff I’d like your take on it. I understand if don’t want to do this.

Ok, first of all, I want to thank you for your kind words in the other thread. I take a lot of heat on these forums so it is nice to hear that my participation is appreciated every now and again.

Enough of that. So I am listening to the "joe" GWAE podcast as we speak (write), but I gotta tell you t is highly unlikely that I will express my opinion either way. Thank you for understanding that.

The few players I have called out it has been much more than claims that I made this amount, or have played this long and made this or that. This is the internet and the internet is full of trolls, haters, and people that just embellish some. For me to call someone out a line has to be crossed, like someone making claims of 500% increase using their super duper count. Or the claims of big winnings with zero variance. That kind of thing crosses a line into intentionally misleading and possibly harming other players.

My more recent circumstance where I called out a guy claiming to be a professional player playing Reno for the last 30 years. Anyone that plays Reno knows you can't play Reno professionally. They just won't tolerate any kind of real money for very long. A player can roll into Reno and play for a weekend a couple times a year, especially on weekends, but the idea that someone can play the small, sweaty location that is Reno for any kind of meaningful stakes, almost daily for 30 years is just BS. But even that it wasn't until he started talking about playing with no variance that I had to say something.

So anyway, moving on. I haven't gotten to it yet but the thing about the relief dealer is true and has happened to me and right here in Vegas, where they can just ban you if they want. I don't know why they play these games but they do. Another counter measure that is weird is when the pit person all of the sudden starts being super friendly and chatty, trying to distract you. It might be a pit person that you have played with numerous times and not said a word to you, now all the sudden they want to chat about everything under the sun. I think more than anything these tactics, are about seeing your reaction. That is also the case with cutting penetration. Here in Vegas, if they can ban you why would they bother cutting penetration first. They want to see your reaction.

Ok, I am going to listen to the rest of this podcast, but I have already heard some things unrelated, that I want to talk about when it is over. But I should again warn, you, it is highly unlikely I will have a public opinion about Joe or Yoshi later. Unless they are promoting some claim that is mathematically impossible, that isn't my place. BUT, you seem to have made up your mind, and that's good. Everyone needs to make that judgement for themselves. You don't need me or anyone else to tell you what to believe and what not to.

 

[KewlJ]

Ok, I will say this. I don't not find Joe credible. (double negative for Don and 21forme)

The thing is some of these guys are playing limits and a style (slash and burn) that I and maybe others have a hard time relating to. They are constantly traveling. Joe mentioned being home just occasionally. High limit play, until they are banned and then move on. Yuk! It is a life, lifestyle and style of play, I just don't want. I personally designed my plan of attack to be just the opposite, where I play my home rotation, 90% of the time and play limits that are accepted.

Ok, I do have some things I want to discuss from this podcast, so I will start a new thread so as not to hijack (further).

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

Hey, I understand your point and agree 100%. I was just curious as to what your biggest down turn was since you have 300 max bets.

Funny thing is that while I too play to several hundred max bet BR, (with the ability to replace it), the most I have ever gone backwards is just about 100 max bets. It is a little hard for me to calculate because I use multiple different spreads and different top wagers, but figuring an average max bet of about $400, which seems about right, I have gone backwards between $30,000 and $40,000, 4 different times, with my biggest being just over 40 grand before I recovered.

So 100 max bets would have covered me all but 1 time and that 1 time 110 max bets would have covered me. So I am beginning to think the old 100 max bet rule wasn't as far off as we think. Of course, a player can't and wouldn't play down to his last max bet. But maybe all that extra that most serious players, play to is really just for our own comfort and the 100 max bet rule is closer than we think.

Gotcha; helpful info for sure. Glad to know that you`ve only gone backwards 100 max bets and it hasn`t been worse than that. For your sake, and also because it makes me feel better since you`ve played so many hands lifetime. That being said, my post probably wasn`t clear... I don`t have 300 max bets (somewhere between 120 and 150; I was estimating based on different spreads also), but that`s what I would suggest to someone because I wish I would have waited until I did have that much to start full time play. It just makes it less stressful when the normal swings don`t make up such a big percentage of your total bankroll.

 

[ZenKinG]

The problem i always have when people mention 'max bets' or 'units' is they dont make a distinction for people who play 2 hands. Would 100 max bets at 2x200 be 20,000 or 40,000? Are they using the 1 hand wager as a max bet or 2 hand wager as a max bet? I'm guessing it would be the cumulative of both so 40,000 since my risk is still very low and that must be the one they're referring too. 20k would be way too low of a ROR.

With that being said, my biggest downswing in terms of max bets(combination of both 2 hand bets) was around the 50 max bet mark. I had about 50k around the 300 hour mark green chipping and then dropped half of my bankroll at 2x250(500 max bet) in 150 hours where I did a lot of heads up play. Shit was brutal. I then went on a 30k(60 max bets) ridiculous streak over the next 100 hours or so. Just mind boggling. When I exclusively backcount I never lose more than 25 max bets during the losing streak. (hope I didnt just jynx myself lol)