7 7 vs 8

[aceside]

Food for thought: Illustrative 18 vs. Full Indices; Useless vs. Immeasurable; Science vs. Art; and Experienced vs. Newbie

Is there a remote possibility that a "newbie" may bring in a NEW PERSPECTIVE that the experienced have overlooked?

I am an experienced newbie. Let me share my perspective with you because I see your confidence. First of all, trust yourself. Do not let anybody sway you. Second, you need a collaborator to beat this game. Nobody can succeed without any of these two.

 

[DSchles]

Food for thought: Illustrative 18 vs. Full Indices; Useless vs. Immeasurable; Science vs. Art; and Experienced vs. Newbie Is there a remote possibility that a "newbie" may bring in a NEW PERSPECTIVE that the experienced have overlooked?

Not the remotest possibility on the planet.

Don

 

[moraine]

Hi-Lo counts 10 cards per suit, 40 per decks. Is there a remote possibility that COUNTING High Cards ALONE (5 PER SUIT, 20 PER DECK) can achieve 99.1% of what Hi-Lo could achieve in terms of the TOTAL SUM OF BC+PE+IC ???

 

[aceside]

Hi-Lo counts 10 cards per suit, 40 per decks. Is there a remote possibility that COUNTING High Cards ALONE (5 PER SUIT, 20 PER DECK) can achieve 99.1% of what Hi-Lo could achieve in terms of the TOTAL SUM OF BC+PE+IC ???

Hi-Lo does not really count cards. It only counts the imbalance between the high and low cards. You do not need to waste the time counting neutral cards. I guess only a few people in this world can grasp this skill to the level of gaining some profit. Nobody probably is capable of counting all high cards alone because the numerical digits are too many for them. If this can be done by a human, he/she might achieve 200% of BC for HiLo, 200% of PE, and 200% of IC. I have been using the HiLo for two years but have lost a lot of money in 8-deck shoe games. This count is just too weak for the game. What is the trick here?

 

[KewlJ]

I have been using the HiLo for two years but have lost a lot of money in 8-deck shoe games. This count is just too weak for the game. What is the trick here?

I would say you have reached the wrong conclusion. Assuming, and we all know about assuming, you are playing at least a average game, meaning "normal rules" H17, das, DoA and penetration is at least average (75% is average), HiLo works fine for an 8 decks game. An 8 deck game is hard to beat, period. Count employed isn't going to change that much. It is about those lower true count frequencies I discussed recently. That makes the 8 deck game a real slow grind.

There are a couple things a player needs to do differently with an 8 deck game to give himself a decent chance.

One is to ramp up pretty quickly. Whatever you determine you max bet is, you have to hit max bet by TC +4 at the latest and have a decent size bet, almost max bet at TC +3, because higher true counts just occur too infrequently in a 8 deck game. Whatever decent TC's you get occur in the last deck or so before shuffle and you have to be betting enough to make up for all those waiting, smaller bets to get there.

The second thing and this is probably most important, is you really need to find a way to escape at lease some of the negative counts. The old play all approach really makes the 8 deck game very hard to beat. You can use some Wonging out techniques, everything from full blow pre-determined wong out, if you have other games available, combining with timing you final exit to a negative count, to strategic bathroom and "phone call breaks" that allow you to miss some of the negative counts. Depending on the place and crowded conditions, you might just be able to sit out some hands. Say something about how awful this shoe is going (don't mention the count ) escaping at least some of the negative counts, preferably the worst of them, can really make a big difference.

 

[aceside]

Nowadays, the 8-deck shoe Hit-17 game has become the new norm in casinos and the table minimum is at least $15. Also, each table is restricted to have only 3-4 players, and almost all of the tables are packed, so wonging out is not an option for APs anymore. I also noticed that many blackjack tables have been converted into SP21 tables. All these have made the situation worse. This is tough.

 

[moraine]

Nobody probably is capable of counting all high cards alone because the numerical digits are too many for them. If this can be done by a human

In due course, you will see -- not a Martian, not a Non-Human -- got it done !!!

 

[johndoe]

Is there a remote possibility that a "newbie" may bring in a NEW PERSPECTIVE that the experienced have overlooked?

Essentially zero probability. Blackjack is very well understood and is really not very complicated.

In your case, the odds are zero exactly.

 

[The G Man]

Hi-Lo counts 10 cards per suit, 40 per decks. Is there a remote possibility that COUNTING High Cards ALONE (5 PER SUIT, 20 PER DECK) can achieve 99.1% of what Hi-Lo could achieve in terms of the TOTAL SUM OF BC+PE+IC ???

No.

 

[aceside]

No.

Earlier I published my discovery here, saying that the 7,7 vs 8 hit/split decision is mostly determined by these three cards of 5, 6, and 7, but nobody seems to disagree or agree with me. Can you help verify my result?

 

[johndoe]

Earlier I published my discovery here, saying that the 7,7 vs 8 hit/split decision is mostly determined by these three cards of 5, 6, and 7, but nobody seems to disagree or agree with me. Can you help verify my result?

No, because it doesn't matter. There are obviously a myriad of situations where knowledge of specific cards remaining helps. But this one is so rare it's irrelevant. The common ones are already well studied and have been well understood for decades.

 

[aceside]

No, because it doesn't matter. There are obviously a myriad of situations where knowledge of specific cards remaining helps. But this one is so rare it's irrelevant. The common ones are already well studied and have been well understood for decades.

But what I propose here is that if somebody is doing a 7-side count with HiLo, he can comfortably split the 7,7 vs 8 hand when the true count is zero and there is one deficit of 7s in the remaining per deck.

 

[johndoe]

But what I propose here is that if somebody is doing a 7-side count with HiLo, he can comfortably split the 7,7 vs 8 hand when the true count is zero and there is one deficit of 7s in the remaking deck.

Whether that's true or not doesn't matter. It's rare enough that it has a negligible impact on your results, that's the point.

 

[LC Larry]

This whole side count 7's stuff reminds me of Jstat. Aceside, you wouldn't happen to be him?

 

[aceside]

This whole side count 7's stuff reminds me of Jstat. Aceside, you wouldn't happen to be him?

I am no Jstat but I read his website. BJanalyser is my collaborator.

 

[BoSox]

But what I propose here is that if somebody is doing a 7-side count with HiLo, he can comfortably split the 7,7 vs 8 hand when the true count is zero and there is one deficit of 7s in the remaining per deck.

That is just not true. Not counting the fact that you did not even word it the way you intended in the first place, as usual, you worded it backward.

 

[johndoe]

Was JSTAT the one going on about weird side counts? I thought it was three or something. I think he was all about the old 10-count.

Careful though, we may beetlejuice these guys.

 

[moraine]

No.

HOPE NOT EVERYONE IS SURPRISED.

The correct answer to the #109 Post is: BY COUNTING HIGH CARDS ALONE, one could achieve 99.1% of Hi-Lo in terms of BC+PE+IC. (There used to be a Card Counting System Efficiency Calculator at Blackjackinfo.com. But it seems NO LONGER WORKING. Or, everyone can check it out.)

 

[KewlJ]

Moses also frequently talked about this exact thing, side counts and higher level counts in regards to very specific hands that occur very infrequently. But unless you are one of the rare few that has access to single deck games or have built yourself a time machine to transport back to the 70's and 80's, there is no value in this for todays games that most of us play.

And by the way, every time I read people wanting to add side counts to Hi-Lo, I just have to laugh. Apparently these folks don't understand the concept of Hi-Lo. Simplicity! You are giving up just this kind of thing (slight diminishing returns), in return for simplicity and freeing yourself up to do other things that really can make a much greater difference.

 

[moraine]

Not the remotest possibility on the planet.

Don

Maybe, Newbies SHOULD WORK EVEN HARDER TO PROVIDE MORE food for thought to the experienced.