Adding an advantage

[supercoolmancool]

What I meant when I said you can have a 100% advantage was a technique I read from a book where one person memorizes the order of 26 cards into the discard tray and a team member memorizes the 26 card sequence of it's probable marriage partner. Then for a one pass one riffle game, you should be able to predict with reasonable accuracy the next card and the dealers hole card if not the next couple of hands to be delt. I mean it is not practicle for normal humans, but it can be done. It is possible.

 

[RJT]

I believe that John May discusses this technique (referred to as Stacker Play) in his book 'Get The Edge At Blackjack'.
It is a very powerful technique providing you exact knowledge of the next card to come out. But it is dependent on some very restircting criteria. Firstly it has to be a very simple shuffle, the dealer has to be very precise with their grabs and finally the interweaving of the cards has to be very close to 1-1. There are several other fine points to this game but that's a thought for another time.
Also this does not gain you a 100% advantage. It gains you close to 100% knowledge of the upcoming cards (you are never going to find a perfect shuffle so your knowledge is never never going to be 100%), but this far from gains you a 100% advantage. Consider the situation where you hold a 16 vs dealer 20 and you know that the next card is a 7. No matter what move you make you are not going to win this hand.

RJT.

 

[supercoolmancool]

You might be able to know your next hand, or the dealer's next hand and whether or not he will bust and then you could bet your whole bankroll. But yah you will never know for 100% fact, but maybe it is possible. I don't know. I mean you should be able to anticipate the 16 v 20 and bet the min. and then anticipate a blackjack and bet the max.

 

[RJT]

This is possible to an extent, but not completly. As i said, you would need a perfect one to one riffle for that to work and if you new that was going to be the case surely you would alter the number of hands so as to avoid the unfavorable situation.
This technique is better used for very accurate knowledge of the next card out of the shoe and predicting the dealer's hole card. If you happen to find a game that you can execute such a intricate technique, you would know not so much the exact value of the next card, but whether it was going to be a high or low card, radically altering your strategy decisions.
To try and know the exact value of ever card is something better left to the computer cheats. I believe that Bryce Carlson discussed a computer that could do something similar in his book 'Blackjack for Blood'. The name Black Magic seems to ring a bell.

RJT.

 

[captheathmalc]

First of all, it is possible to know exactly what the next card will be. That's why I like blackjack....

I believe what supercoolmancool is refering to is card steering or what we call the cut game..... So yes there are ways to know exactly what card is coming next.

What I meant when I said you can have a 100% advantage was a technique I read from a book where one person memorizes the order of 26 cards into the discard tray and a team member memorizes the 26 card sequence of it's probable marriage partner. Then for a one pass one riffle game, you should be able to predict with reasonable accuracy the next card and the dealers hole card if not the next couple of hands to be delt. I mean it is not practicle for normal humans, but it can be done. It is possible.

I used these quotes (two of which I abbreviated..for length), to go back to What Supercoolmancool originally said.

I took what he said, to mean..that he can know what the next card will be, at any-point in the shoe/deck. This is impossible. That was my point.

 

[captheathmalc]

Recently I recieved an IM from a member of this forum....within that IM I was told that the view expressed by that person concerning something I said was just their opinion, and that no maliciousness was intended.

I believe this person was sincere, and took him/her at his/her word.

Yet, as I sit here in my hotel-room going over some of the responses that I have recieved in reply to my postings, I cannot help but find it ironic that there are certain members of this forum that endeavor to teach and correct my style of play, when they themselves are obviously relative newcomers to the game.

I have no problem with someone disagreeing with my POV, or my style of play....or even being critical. But, when one criticizes something out of pure ignorance, that is another matter altogether.

 

[RJT]

Cap, i can understand your POV also, but i really feel that was more than a little harsh.
If you've started reading the books that have been recommended on this forum yet you will quickly see that one thing that any good author on the subject drills into the reader is that to waver from the exact dicipline of the count - or whatever technique you are reading about - leads to inevitable bankroll suicide. To back this up, most of the people who have been playing the game for any length of time can quote their own personal tale of wow from when they over bet, steaming all the way to a big loss and if they don't have their own, they know someone who does.
Now not knowing all the details of your system, i can't say whether it is a legitimate winning system or not, and i do have a respect for anyone who is inquizitive enough to want to investigate avenues of higher profit, especially those not well or not at all documented, but the routes you are suggesting have been throughly investigated. If you want to go and investigate those routes yourself, far be it from me to discourage you - there are many ways to gain an advantage over the game of blackjack and far from all of them are documented or discussed in open or even closed forums. You may well find something new. All i'm saying is that it's not new ground you are treading and there are possibly better opertunities elsewhere.
I suppose what i'm driving at is that the people here, whether well informed or just beginning are advising you through honest good intent, passing on nothing more than the teachings they have learned. While i would say that on a few occasions you have been met with a distinct lack of patience, to slap at those who have tried to help is a little unfair.
Quite frankly - whether you play a winning game or not - you have hardly shown a huge understanding of the theoretical aspects of the game, so you really should be less critical.

RJT.

 

[shadroch]

I used these quotes (two of which I abbreviated..for length), to go back to What Supercoolmancool originally said.

I took what he said, to mean..that he can know what the next card will be, at any-point in the shoe/deck. This is impossible. That was my point.

And you'd still be wrong. Read my post on circumstances where you will not only know your next card,but will be able to size your bet accordingly.

 

[ScottH]

I used these quotes (two of which I abbreviated..for length), to go back to What Supercoolmancool originally said.

I took what he said, to mean..that he can know what the next card will be, at any-point in the shoe/deck. This is impossible. That was my point.

It's not IMPOSSIBLE. None of the cards leave your sight at any point, so you could see where each and every card went. Of course noone can do this, but it's not impossible.

 

[halcyon1234]

It's not IMPOSSIBLE. None of the cards leave your sight at any point, so you could see where each and every card went. Of course noone can do this, but it's not impossible.

No-one?

Short Bald Man: Bet at your discrection, Mr. Dat-- er-- Smith.

Tall Pale Man: I will bet fifty of these black *ahem* "non-replicated" chips.

Waitress: Can I get you something?

Short Bald Man: Tea, Early Grey, hot.

=)

 

[taipafan]

Some poor shuffles (multiple riffles) would leave 10 more cards in the same sequence from the last shoe.
More than 100% advantage can be gained from Blackjack 1.5 or on doubling down for sure win.

 

[RJT]

But the level of accuracy you'd need to achieve would be near impossible without a perfect riffle (you'd need to know how many cards seperated your sequence) and knowing before the hands were dealt what you, the other players and the dealer will have alongside predicting what they will draw is going to be a supremely difficult task, so i think predicting 100% advantage is optimistic to say the least.

RJT.

 

[supercoolmancool]

This isn't a technique where you would use it every hand or every shoe. If just one time you can identify that you will win the next hand, then you can bet everything. That's the idea. It would be worth searching hundreds of hours for.

 

[RJT]

I can see the size of the advantage, but i really don't feel that 100's of hours of searching would be worth it. With the opportunities available that are more readily accessible, you could earn far more money. Even knowing a guaranteed win on one hand, you are always going to be subject to a table limit and to make the one off big kill you are talking about you'd need to find the situation at a very high stakes table 10-50k standards.
I've no doubt that there is money to be made and that this game carries a substantial advantage, but the variation is going to be huge as well. One card off and those 100's of hours go down the drain in a major fashion.
As i said before, you'd need the perfect 1-1 riffle and if even once between your important cards, 2 cards were to fall, it would throw your whole game out by a card which would destroy any advantage. At least with ace sequencing, if you don't catch it on one hand, you have a chance of catching it on another.
Just to fragile for any realistic real world application. There are other ways of using the information - aka steering certain cards and having a good idea of what the next card will be - but to try and arrange an entire table for that guarenteed win......

RJT.

 

[halcyon1234]

I can see the size of the advantage, but i really don't feel that 100's of hours of searching would be worth it....aka steering certain cards and having a good idea of what the next card will be - but to try and arrange an entire table for that guarenteed win......
RJT.

I'm curious-- what is the maximum theoretical advantage someone would gain if they could PERFECTLY track the shuffle. In other words, if you always knew what the dealer's hole card was, and could see the entire shoe (not just the next card, but the ENTIRE shoe), what'd the EV of that be?

 

[ScottH]

I'm curious-- what is the maximum theoretical advantage someone would gain if they could PERFECTLY track the shuffle. In other words, if you always knew what the dealer's hole card was, and could see the entire shoe (not just the next card, but the ENTIRE shoe), what'd the EV of that be?

Useless information! It would be around 100%. You would bet the minimum if you knew you were going to lose, and when you know the dealer will bust you bet your entire bankroll. Of course you could play according to what the order of the cards are to help the dealer bust. So it would basically be a 100% advantage.

 

[supercoolmancool]

It would be more than 100% with Blackjacks.

 

[ScottH]

It would be more than 100% with Blackjacks.

Haha, you're right. Good point. That makes it even more funny.

 

[captheathmalc]

Cap, i can understand your POV also, but i really feel that was more than a little harsh.
If you've started reading the books that have been recommended on this forum yet you will quickly see that one thing that any good author on the subject drills into the reader is that to waver from the exact dicipline of the count - or whatever technique you are reading about - leads to inevitable bankroll suicide. To back this up, most of the people who have been playing the game for any length of time can quote their own personal tale of wow from when they over bet, steaming all the way to a big loss and if they don't have their own, they know someone who does.
Now not knowing all the details of your system, i can't say whether it is a legitimate winning system or not, and i do have a respect for anyone who is inquizitive enough to want to investigate avenues of higher profit, especially those not well or not at all documented, but the routes you are suggesting have been throughly investigated. If you want to go and investigate those routes yourself, far be it from me to discourage you - there are many ways to gain an advantage over the game of blackjack and far from all of them are documented or discussed in open or even closed forums. You may well find something new. All i'm saying is that it's not new ground you are treading and there are possibly better opertunities elsewhere.
I suppose what i'm driving at is that the people here, whether well informed or just beginning are advising you through honest good intent, passing on nothing more than the teachings they have learned. While i would say that on a few occasions you have been met with a distinct lack of patience, to slap at those who have tried to help is a little unfair.
Quite frankly - whether you play a winning game or not - you have hardly shown a huge understanding of the theoretical aspects of the game, so you really should be less critical.

RJT.

Okay

And you'd still be wrong. Read my post on circumstances where you will not only know your next card,but will be able to size your bet accordingly.

uh huh. (see the continuation of this below)

It's not IMPOSSIBLE. None of the cards leave your sight at any point, so you could see where each and every card went. Of course noone can do this, but it's not impossible.

It is impossible. You are telling me, that you can sit at a D6 table, and know the order of the cards exact? If you can, then why are you bothering to post on this board...or anywhere for that matter? You should be at a table right now, beating the casino out of a few million dollars.

Personally, I plan to retire from BJ within the next two years. Then I will have enough to make a much bigger profit, doing something else. Not that I won't still play, but I won't be doing it in the same fashion I am currently.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for my doubters: No problem....I was going to make some MLTC BJ posts here soon, but I won't waste your time, or mine.

Thanx for all the replies, and good luck.

-out-


PS: Don't forget...I'm at the Belterra tonight. :cool2:

 

[ScottH]

It is impossible. You are telling me, that you can sit at a D6 table, and know the order of the cards exact? If you can, then why are you bothering to post on this board...or anywhere for that matter? You should be at a table right now, beating the casino out of a few million dollars.

I didn't say I could do it, I said it was possible... because it is.