An engineer who uses hi-lo

[Automatic Monkey]

I'm not sure you are interpreting the results correctly. A red numbers in parenthesis means NEGATIVE. With flat-betting, the hi-lo player lost $11.73 per hour, while the zen player lost $11.14 per hour. Zen, along with the other level 2 systems, had a higher "winrate" (or in this case lower loss rate). Now when applying an optimal spread to each, note that the zen player won $2 more per hour, and with lower variance. You were correct in pointing out that to a casual player, "the tiny difference is practically meaningless". However for a dedicated player who will put in ~1,000 hrs per year, that extra fraction goes a long way. Note that RoR was reduced by a factor of %20, and N0 was reduced by 10%. This means you will reach your expectation 10% faster and reduce your chance of losing your bankroll by a factor of 20%. To a skilled player with a large bankroll, this improvement is significant once they are experienced enough to employ a level 2 system perfectly.

I hope it's crystal clear now.

Is there a reason why your sim players weren't Wonging out of a 6D game?

 

[psyduck]

I'm not sure you are interpreting the results correctly. A red numbers in parenthesis means NEGATIVE. With flat-betting, the hi-lo player lost $11.73 per hour, while the zen player lost $11.14 per hour. Zen, along with the other level 2 systems, had a higher "winrate" (or in this case lower loss rate). Now when applying an optimal spread to each, note that the zen player won $2 more per hour, and with lower variance. You were correct in pointing out that to a casual player, "the tiny difference is practically meaningless". However for a dedicated player who will put in ~1,000 hrs per year, that extra fraction goes a long way. Note that RoR was reduced by a factor of %20, and N0 was reduced by 10%. This means you will reach your expectation 10% faster and reduce your chance of losing your bankroll by a factor of 20%. To a skilled player with a large bankroll, this improvement is significant once they are experienced enough to employ a level 2 system perfectly.

I hope it's crystal clear now.

I do know the red numbers are minus. I was talking about the trend difference in your sim vs my sim.

You are incorrect to say that level 2 systems showed higher winrate in your sim. Level 2 FELT had lower winrate than HiLo under flat betting as shown in your sim in post #47.

Anyway, as I pointed out in post #57, I did confirm that some indices in the canned systems in my simulator are inaccurate. I generated my own indices for those level 2 systems and compared them to my own HiLo indices. My data now make more sense. I saw level 2 systems outperform HiLo to different digree and I also saw difference among those level 2 systems.