Anyone tried this betting strategy?

[picasso]

My profits may just be attributed to sheer luck....or maybe not entirely? I try to test my progressions before going to the casino, but since I almost only play negative progressions and the variance of the game is enormous, I start small and keep it that way. To me blackjack is a recreational thing and an intellectual pass-time. I've been attracted to the game since I was introduced to it as a teenager; never succumbed to poker and company. I'm never quite confident when at the table, because I have lost (big) before, but yes, I am in the profits in the thousands of dollars (and that includes on-line bj). Call it luck?

 

[metronome]

Fibonacci progression

The answer is yes.
Playing frequency: 6-8 times a year
Duration : over 20 years.
Stategy: modified Fibonacci progression.

PS; this post will probably be removed.

Fibonacci progression ?
Care to elaborate.

 

[picasso]

http://www.online-casinos.com/beginnersguide/faq17_fibonacci_system.asp

or simply google it !

 

[fredperson]

Fibonacci

http://www.online-casinos.com/beginnersguide/faq17_fibonacci_system.asp

or simply google it !

Although the system I use is based on Fibonacci progression, it is not the one outlined in the referenced article.

In essense, it simply inceases bet size during WINNING streaks in a manner similar (but not identical) to the Fibonacci sequence. Here's a comparison of the FIRST part of the progression; units bet:
Fibonacci : 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21
Fredperson: 2 2 2 3 5 7 10 15

Notes: 1-minimum bet is 2 units (that's important)
2-a sucessful double or split at level 1 or 2 advances the bet to level 4
3-any loss, including surrender, reverts the next bet to 2 units
4-table maximum must be at least 20 times unit size. I use a unit of 25.00
5-system only works with hand shuffled 6 and 8 deck shoes (empirical observation)

 

[caramel6]

keep it simple

A friend of mine intends to try a very simple strategy: bankroll 10000, trip bankroll 2000.

Play with 100 units, when win 2 , stop for a day. Rest

If lost twice in a row 100 plus 100, stop play in this shoe, move to a next one. He prefers to play at the beginning of the the shoe, 4-5 players OR wong in when TC 3 and higher max 2 boxes opened.

If lost 4 units, stop, rest , try again at the afternoon an (or ) evening.Up to 2 units plus.That is all he wants. I told him about ROR and so on, but he wants to giv a go.Anyone did anything simular?

 

[Coach R]

Hm. This system sounds great, but it will never work. After losing 7,8,9 hands in a row, then what? it will happen. A Pit boss pulled you aside to tell you how to take his employers money? Just because you know how to play?Sorry, I'am not buying this one, and you won 45 g? I find that hard to swallow.

I'm new to this site but I've just got to share a betting system that I used to win over $45,000 in just a few days of play. First I should say I'm a pretty new player, and I'd lost alot of money just learning to play. But one night as I was playing an old pit boss stood next to me and said the following. Young man I've been watching you for some time now, and I wanted to complement your play. I fact in all the time I've spent watching you you've not made even one wrong play, however if you don't mind me saying so, you don't have clu one about betting. He then told me he was going to take a break in a few minutes and he wondered if I would meet him outside at that time. So a few minutes later I followed the old gent outside and he told me a little about himself. He said he made alot more money in the players seat than he did on the floor. I never asked him why he didn't play full time. Perhaps I should have. But what he taught me has worked for me at my local casino and also in Las Vegas. The system is a (modified martingale). It's simple and although it requires a bit of guts and fairly full pockets it works. It goes like this. Basic unit times two plus one unit with a cap. Win return to basic unit. $15,$45,$135,$405,$1215. This isn't exactly how I play it for two reasons. First, at my local casino the table limit for the $15 tables is $1000. Second I don't go beyond the fourth bet often, and frankly I don't often need too. Thirdly until I'm up over one thousand I don't make the thousand dollar max bet. Once I'm up $5000 I switch to a $25 table. and the progression is $25, $75, $225, $675, $2000. However I don't make the max bet until I'm up $12,000. One night I walked to the window with $17,000. Many time I've cleared over $5,000. On more than one night I've had hotel security walk me to my room with my pockets stuffed with the casinos money. I've taught this system to players at the table and I've seen more than one person walk away with thousands of the houses money. This system requires one to play for long hours to win. And I must add that seeking to play catch up after a string of losses is almost always a disaster. Two things I can't say to strongly is don't sit down short on cash. And if you find that you've lost three cycles of bets with any one dealer "walk". A cycle is 15 45 135 405 or 25 75 225 675. Thats twelve hands in a row, And I've found that hot dealers don't often cool. Most important is perfect basic play.

 

[elkobar]

progression

I recently read a book called 'blackjacks hidden secrets, win without counting' by George Pappadopoulos. (whata' name) anyway he says he has a 78% win average with this betting strategy. The strategy says your first bet must be twice the table minimum for example at a $5 table your first bet would be $10. If you win you regress your next bet to $5, win, your next bet is back to $10, win again you bet up one unit which would be $15, win $20 etc you keep going up until you lose. When you lose you go back to your starting bet of $10 and start the cycle over. The goal of this system according to the author is to increase your session bankroll by 50% then stop playing for the day. So for example if you start with a $100 bankroll you would stop playing when you got to $150. The system is based on streaks and it wouldn't really take a very big streak to increase your bankroll by 50% unless your starting bankroll is very large to begin with. The reason I'm interested in the system is because of the the fact after your first win you drop your bet back to table min. so if you lose this second hand your still ahead one unit because you bet 2 units to start with. This also helps protect you against streaks by the dealer. I have played around with this strategy on the internet for play money and it seems to work pretty well but I'm still not confident in using it with real money as I'm not sure about betting systems in the long run. So if anyone uses this system let me know if you have had good results. 2units-1unit-2units-3units-4units-etc. Lose you go back to 2units and start over.
Roger,

Hi
rwrw1.
Your system sounds very much like the one that John Patrick mentioned in his book 'John Patricks Blackjack', 1995 edition;
starting with a $10 minumum bet if you win then go to $20, win the next and revert back to $10, if you win the next then go to $20, $30, $40, $50, and stay on $50 until you lose;
if after any loss you revert back to $20, and start the cycle over again.
He also advocates to leave the table when you lose 4 hands in a row..
Elkobar..

 

[elkobar]

winning without counting

Hi, Picasso, if you are so confident in your system, why not to increase bets?

Anyone else winning without counting REGULARLY, not just a few month??

Hi Caramel6

I have hesitated in responding to your question, as I have been waiting for the smoke to settle from the last discussion about progressions,( walter thomasons thread ).
But yes I have been using his progression for about 6 years, and have had good results, although I have to play against CSM's with 6 decks,and of course there are days when I should have stayed home, but as I have his quit points system in place which is losing 4 hands in a row, or losing $100, these 2 options are my exit plays; this keeps my losses down to a manageable
amount, the progression is $10.15.20.25. stay on 25 until you lose then go back to 10. I play with only a bank of $300.
I understand from advise given by most forum users that progression does not work, and of course we are constantly advised that we will lose in the long run, but in spite of this information I do win more than I lose, and I am playing now, and not in long run, so what else can I say, if you have not tried it, and proven it right or wrong, then perhaps one should not comment;
Elkobar..

 

[21gunsalute]

if you have not tried it, and proven it right or wrong, then perhaps one should not comment;
Elkobar..

Well I've never tried arsenic, or cutting off appendages either, so maybe I shouldn't comment on how stupid it would be to do so.

Perhaps one shouldn't comment just because he claims to have had success with a particular system if he can't site any valid reason why such a stupid, illogical system could possibly work. You may have been extremely lucky so far but your luck has nothing to do with using a system that has no logical basis for altering the size of your bets. Please explain how and why this system works.

Maybe you should try my system. I bet even amounts during even minutes and odd amounts during odd minutes. I can't explain why or how it works, but it works every time. Trust me.

 

[elkobar]

again with the progression

Well I've never tried arsenic, or cutting off appendages either, so maybe I shouldn't comment on how stupid it would be to do so.

Perhaps one shouldn't comment just because he claims to have had success with a particular system if he can't site any valid reason why such a stupid, illogical system could possibly work. You may have been extremely lucky so far but your luck has nothing to do with using a system that has no logical basis for altering the size of your bets. Please explain how and why this system works.

Maybe you should try my system. I bet even amounts during even minutes and odd amounts during odd minutes. I can't explain why or how it works, but it works every time. Trust me.

Hi 21gunsalute;
Thanks for your insight,sounds like you have a good system there as well?
There is no valid reason, nor is it logical, neither is it mathematical in essence,and it is not a system, simply put it just happens, observation indicates that runs of wins and losses occur in varying lengths, and all you are doing is following the run.
And the betting is just taking advantage of this event, and by increasing your bet when you are in a winning sequence and decreasing it when in a losing sequence, is the best way to play these runs;
These runs of wins and losses occur in Roulette as well, I have been on a run of 19 reds in a row, and with progressive betting, ( parlay style ) it can be very profitable.
Gambling is not always about mathematical precision, it is about observing what is happening and taking advantage of the situation.
Elkobar..

 

[psyduck]

Well I've never tried arsenic, or cutting off appendages either, so maybe I shouldn't comment on how stupid it would be to do so.

Perhaps one shouldn't comment just because he claims to have had success with a particular system if he can't site any valid reason why such a stupid, illogical system could possibly work. You may have been extremely lucky so far but your luck has nothing to do with using a system that has no logical basis for altering the size of your bets. Please explain how and why this system works.

Maybe you should try my system. I bet even amounts during even minutes and odd amounts during odd minutes. I can't explain why or how it works, but it works every time. Trust me.

The difference between trying arsenic and playing progression is trying arsenic has almost no fluctuation: you either get sick or get killed. No one can deny the fact that CC works in the long run. The problem is most people cannot get even close to the long run. Another fact is the advantage gained by CC is so small compared to the variance. Every time I go to the casino, I see a lot of ploppies winning more than I.

I will not use progression, but if someone who does not count cards has been winning with some system, I say good for you.

 

[21gunsalute]

Hi 21gunsalute;
Thanks for your insight,sounds like you have a good system there as well?
There is no valid reason, nor is it logical, neither is it mathematical in essence,and it is not a system, simply put it just happens, observation indicates that runs of wins and losses occur in varying lengths, and all you are doing is following the run.
And the betting is just taking advantage of this event, and by increasing your bet when you are in a winning sequence and decreasing it when in a losing sequence, is the best way to play these runs;
These runs of wins and losses occur in Roulette as well, I have been on a run of 19 reds in a row, and with progressive betting, ( parlay style ) it can be very profitable.

Uh, just one problem with that. You have no way of knowing when you're about to start a winning streak, or if you're in the middle of a streak, how long it will last. Yeah, progressions will work if you have perfect precognition and know you're about to win x # of hands in a row or that you're going to win the next hand. Of course if you had perfect precogniton it would make more sense to sit out hands you knew you were going to lose and bet table max on hands you knew you were going to win, so once again, progressions make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

 

[21gunsalute]

The difference between trying arsenic and playing progression is trying arsenic has almost no fluctuation: you either get sick or get killed. No one can deny the fact that CC works in the long run. The problem is most people cannot get even close to the long run. Another fact is the advantage gained by CC is so small compared to the variance. Every time I go to the casino, I see a lot of ploppies winning more than I.

Sure, anyone can get lucky once. These ploppies aren't going to be winning on a regular basis though.

 

[elkobar]

all knowing card counters

Uh, just one problem with that. You have no way of knowing when you're about to start a winning streak, or if you're in the middle of a streak, how long it will last. Yeah, progressions will work if you have perfect precognition and know you're about to win x # of hands in a row or that you're going to win the next hand. Of course if you had perfect precogniton it would make more sense to sit out hands you knew you were going to lose and bet table max on hands you knew you were going to win, so once again, progressions make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

Hi 21gunsalute;
I must congradulate you on your optimism, and your ability to "know" when to increase and or decrease your bets, with card counting; from what I have read in previous threads, there are a lot of folk that wished that they had the same ability to accurately predict the outcome of each and every hand before it is dealt, would make the game a lot easier and more profitable, but as I have noted there are a lot of people who still lose their bank-roll while card counting, and as I have mentioned many times, progression is not about making sense, it is about what happens, you do not have to know when the run is going to start, or stop, you just have to be on it when it happens, and get off when it stops;
Perhaps the concept is to simple to be understood by the mathematicaly minded, maybe it needs to be more complicated , but it is'nt, sorry;
Elkobar..

 

[QFIT]

Hi 21gunsalute;
I must congradulate you on your optimism, and your ability to "know" when to increase and or decrease your bets, with card counting; from what I have read in previous threads, there are a lot of folk that wished that they had the same ability to accurately predict the outcome of each and every hand before it is dealt, would make the game a lot easier and more profitable, but as I have noted there are a lot of people who still lose their bank-roll while card counting, and as I have mentioned many times, progression is not about making sense, it is about what happens, you do not have to know when the run is going to start, or stop, you just have to be on it when it happens, and get off when it stops;
Perhaps the concept is to simple to be understood by the mathematicaly minded, maybe it needs to be more complicated , but it is'nt, sorry;
Elkobar..

1. You titled the post "all-knowing card counters." NO ONE has claimed card counters are all-knowing.
2. NO ONE has claimed "to accurately predict the outcome of each and every hand before it is dealt."
3. Of course there are counters that lose. There are people that die of lung cancer who never smoked. Does that mean non-smokers are wrong?
4. "Perhaps the concept is to (sic) simple to be understood by the mathematicaly minded..." That's just plain silly.

Are you trying to break a record for "most strawmen in one post?"

 

[zengrifter]

I have mentioned many times, progression is not about making sense, it is about what happens, you do not have to know when the run is going to start, or stop, you just have to be on it when it happens, and get off when it stops; Perhaps the concept is to simple to be understood by the mathematicaly minded...

According to all math and computer sim, it does not work.

Why do you insist in the face of science that it does work? zg

 

[elkobar]

ok you win!

According to all math and computer sim, it does not work.

Why do you insist in the face of science that it does work? zg

Hi Qfit & zengrifter,

Thanks for the reply, you win I give up;
Elkobar..

 

[zengrifter]

Hi Qfit & zengrifter,
Thanks for the reply, you win I give up;
Elkobar..

I meant this statement, that simply doesn't work or it would prove in the sims, right? zg

you do not have to know when the run is going to start, or stop, you just have to be on it when it happens, and get off when it stops;

 

[blackjacktilt]

Exactly!!

Just in case anyone needs reminding, no betting system can change a negative edge game into a positive edge game. Despite any claims to the contrary, all progressions lose money in the long run, equivalent to the house edge times the total money wagered.



Thank you for saying it Mr. Smith, if not I was going to :grin:

 

[21gunsalute]

Hi 21gunsalute;
I must congradulate you on your optimism, and your ability to "know" when to increase and or decrease your bets, with card counting; from what I have read in previous threads, there are a lot of folk that wished that they had the same ability to accurately predict the outcome of each and every hand before it is dealt, would make the game a lot easier and more profitable, but as I have noted there are a lot of people who still lose their bank-roll while card counting, and as I have mentioned many times, progression is not about making sense, it is about what happens, you do not have to know when the run is going to start, or stop, you just have to be on it when it happens, and get off when it stops;
Perhaps the concept is to simple to be understood by the mathematicaly minded, maybe it needs to be more complicated , but it is'nt, sorry;
Elkobar..

If you don't know when a run is going to start or stop how are you going to "be on it when it happens" and how are you going to "get off when it stops"? It seems like you're always going to be at least 1 hand late with this info since you have no way of knowing what the outcome of the next hand will be. I will agree with you that most progressions don't make any sense though.

Once again, please show some documentation as to how and/or why a particular progression works.