Are some APs "luckier" than others?

[paddywhack]

Am I the only one who thinks that the bad-variance horror stories outnumber the accounts of good variance by a healthy margin?

There is no shortage of hair-raising tales of extended brutal bitch slappings, but few comparable ones of 200 hours yielding 3x expected return.

I wonder if huge upswings seem to most of us as if we earned them.

Can't say I'd disagree with this at all.

 

[aslan]

Can't say I'd disagree with this at all.

The good times are what we expect to happen, but the bad beats stick in our craw. Still, I have had worse bad swings than corresponding good swings. With me, and it may be because of my style or the weakness of my count, I experience far more positive swings. but none as deep as a couple of my negative swings. Maybe that's the way it's meant to be, or maybe I'm doing something wrong. Or maybe there is not enough information to conclude anything. Maybe, deeper positive swings are on their way. Until I know for sure, that is a consoling thought.

 

[blackjack avenger]

well, i dont like being challenged

I don't like challenging you, my friend, but what exactly do you mean by that definition of luck, which on the surface seems a contradiction in terms?

It just came to me

The saying:
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity does not quite seem to cover it, because of variance. It is the threat we face.

I am thinking of a rant on N0 & betting, just have not pulled the trigger.

 

[blackjack avenger]

winning losing and points between

Winning or winning to much is not a problem
Losing is
Errr VARIANCE is

It's all About N0:whip:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Am I the only one who thinks that the bad-variance horror stories outnumber the accounts of good variance by a healthy margin?

There is no shortage of hair-raising tales of extended brutal bitch slappings, but few comparable ones of 200 hours yielding 3x expected return.

I wonder if huge upswings seem to most of us as if we earned them.

That's the difference between us and gamblers.

Gamblers remember winning and disregard losing. We expect winning and are astounded and dismayed by losing. I've walked away from the table with 2x EV and feeling like I lost. Knowing that I won, but feeling like I lost. Not that important, being AP's go by knowing and disregard feeling.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

I've had sessions where I ran right around EV and felt down on myself because I knew I didn't play my best during the session. I also agree with Friendo that we almost feel entitled to large wins, even if our EV is somewhat modest. I've had sessions where I won 4x my EV and thought to myself, "it's about time!" AM makes a good point—gamblers remember the wins, we remember the losses. I can only remember a handful of relatively large wins throughout my playing career, but I can remember quite a few reasonable losses (although they don't bother me all that much).

 

[Billy C1]

A cost of doing business

If you're using a good game, losses are no more than a business expense that can be compared to paying employees in a regular business.

BillyC1

 

[aslan]

If you're using a good game, losses are no more than a business expense that can be compared to paying employees in a regular business.

BillyC1

True, but it's a bit more difficult to schedule. It's like not paying your employees for six months, then suddenly paying them six months back pay all at once. I always tell counters not to spend those large wins beyond their expected average win rate. You need them for payroll expense! :laugh:

 

[aslan]

That's the difference between us and gamblers.

Gamblers remember winning and disregard losing. We expect winning and are astounded and dismayed by losing. I've walked away from the table with 2x EV and feeling like I lost. Knowing that I won, but feeling like I lost. Not that important, being AP's go by knowing and disregard feeling.

You're 100% correct. A gambler will remember a $10,000 win, and conveniently forget years of losses amounting to hundreds of thousands. I see it all the time. Funny how they can recall each minute detail of those wins.

A gambler would rather have a huge win all at one time, having paid a steep premium for it over the years, than a healthy steady win rate over time that is cumulatively much larger. Gamblers never brag about their win rate; they invariably brag about their largest wins.

 

[Gamblor]

I remember most the 10 sessions in a row where I was in the range of -12 units to +12 units every session. Very weird!

 

[Eye of the Tiger]

So long as I never run out of bankroll, I don't need luck :grin:

You could still be a loser for the rest of your life and never run out of your bankroll how would that sit with you? So your statement if not true.

 

[Eye of the Tiger]

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=11094

Here is a old thread with 51 pages of discussion on LUCK if you want to read it.

 

[Billy C1]

True, but it's a bit more difficult to schedule. It's like not paying your employees for six months, then suddenly paying them six months back pay all at once. I always tell counters not to spend those large wins beyond their expected average win rate. You need them for payroll expense! :laugh:

Your second to last sentence has been the cause of failure for many, many "wanabe" APs!

BillyC1

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Your second to last sentence has been the cause of failure for many, many "wanabe" APs!

BillyC1

Yeah, I have that problem, my long-term wins tend to have a high correlation with being followed by purchases of new boats or trucks! :cool2:

Which leads to a philosophical question- would you rather be a green chipper with a new boat and truck or a black chipper without those things?

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Yeah, I have that problem, my long-term wins tend to have a high correlation with being followed by purchases of new boats or trucks! :cool2:

Which leads to a philosophical question- would you rather be a green chipper with a new boat and truck or a black chipper without those things?

Same with me, except with short term wins and suits or vacations :grin:

 

[Jacob]

Nearly half a million bucks

Not bad for a few days work [Clarification: several weeks, not a few days :laugh:]. Any idea what size bankroll he was operating from?

Answers
1) His year to date bankroll with the half-Kellie: nearly five hundred thousand bucks.
2) His bankroll for that recent trip: one hundred thousand bucks (Perhaps that why muggers have targeted gamblers in casinos Borg, Trop, Taj, etc... Hmm..., sooner or later, a robber will mug Don Johnson, and that mugger will be rich for life :laugh.

 

[Billy C1]

Kidding?

I think we can presume that both AM and Dye are joking and that both would agree that DISCIPLINE is a requirement for successful AP!

BillyC1

 

[paddywhack]

I think we can presume that both AM and Dye are joking......
BillyC1

I wouldn't be too sure about that......

 

[blackjack avenger]

you are not a special snowflake

Once you have a large loss
It's gone:whip:
There is no balancing out
To think otherwise I think is gamblers fallacy?

If u play long enough the loss can be a small blip compared total play

Now that I have depressed myself.:whip:

 

[FrankieT]

Congrats on your $4,905 winning streak. Speaking of winning streak, how about a fabulous $130,000 winning streak! Recently this super AP just posted another trip report of $130,000 winnings. I'm going to paraphrase his report as follows:

In the first Casino, he played its single-decker with surrender option and made 6,000 bucks in the first day. Unfortunately he got 86ed by the casino staff [It's so ironic! This super AP is a future Inductee, but he got 86ed by the casino staff of Max Rubin. Max is a Blackjack Hall of Famer and teaches the staff how to catch APs :cry:!]

After eighty-sixed by the Max' staff, he went to play double-deckers in Casino A and B which were recommended by a JohnnyC's prodigy. He won 90,000 bucks from Casinos A & B.

After Casinos A & B, he went to whack Casinos C & D. He won $34,000, totaling $130,000 winnings during this trip. Not bad, heh?

Single decker with surrender option, LMFAO....this isn't any time in the last 30 years, right?

By all means, please shoot me a PM explaining where this single decker with surrender is if such a mythological beast should exist