Caramel: no one is saying that no one can "win a hand" unless they're counting. Of course, anyone can win, and people do win—that's why casinos are popular. That's why the lottery makes so much money. There are plenty of rumors about homeless people racking up huge wins in Vegas. Do they have a strategy worth studying? A British man sold all of his possessions and bet his entire net worth on one hand of roulette. He won, but is that strategy worth applying yourself? If you and I were to flip a coin with the agreement that I would pay you $100 if it landed heads and you would pay me $150 if it landed tails, would you take the bet? There's a 50/50 chance that you'd win $100 for doing almost nothing, but I think it would be unwise to do so. Just because you're at a disadvantage in the long run doesn't mean anything, right?
Mike: You asked is 5 years isn't enough of a "long run." Well, what does "5 years mean?" If you played 50 hours of blackjack in 5 years, you'd probably have different results than you'd have if you played 5000 hours. The long run is not based in length of time, it's how many trials have been repeated. If you and I were to play the same coin game I mentioned a few times a year, you could very well be a winner over 5 years of playing, even at an incredible disadvantage. If we played every week, you can be sure that I would have a lot of your money.
In a good blackjack game, you can expect to have your N0 somewhere around 15,000 hands. That's one way to look at the long run—it's the amount of hands that you must play before you can expect to be within one standard deviation of your expected results. If you play 100 hands per hour, you'll need to be at a blackjack table playing for 150 hours before you can expect to even be making a profit. That's with an edge of around 1%. If you're playing with an edge of -0.5%, you can see how your results can vary wildly (both positively and negatively), even over what most people would consider to be an inordinate amount of time sitting at blackjack tables.
You're playing a game with a disadvantage, and you'll eventually lose money if you play long enough. The "short run" doesn't matter to anyone, advantage player or civilian, because you are statistically more likely to lose money on every wager placed, period. I have no problem with gambling for recreation, and I wouldn't suggest trying to learn AP techniques, but don't try to fool yourself (and as a result, others) that you have a strategy that will make you money. You've been lucky, and I'm happy for you, but you've experienced nothing more than what a lottery winner has experienced: complete and total luck.
