Black Jack Player wins 15 Million.

[Gamblor]

Of course it is not a single hand, but that doesn't matter much.
What you want for cashback is high variance. This way you dip as often as possible into the negative (with same EV) per, and hence you collect cashback. These are the finer things of "real life". Blackjack is the perfect game for that play. Low house edge and high variance.
Together with some sort of clever progression system it's a killer.

(the progression system will not make you EV on the game itself. But it will shape variance, and hence EV of the cashback).

A 20% cashback after each losing session is huge.

Too bad they won't let him play anymore in most places in AC, great cover if you knew he was there.

 

[LovinItAll]

A 20% cashback after each losing session is huge.

Too bad they won't let him play anymore in most places in AC, great cover if you knew he was there.

Do you think that it was a session-based rebate? That doesn't seem likely, but maybe so.

That's not how you exploit cashback.

Say you place a single bet of 100K on a single BJ hand (make sure you can affort splits and doubles ^^). Let's ignore pushes, splits, and doubles for the sake of argument. Let the house edge be 2%. That means you lose your 100K with probability of 51%, and you win 100K with probability of 49%.
On average he loses 2K to the house. Agree ?

Now what happens with cashback (say, 10%) in place ?
He still loses 51% of his hand. But he doesn't lose 100K, but only 90K.
He stil wins 49% of his hand (100K).
Putting the numbers together:
0.49 * 100K - 0.51 * 90K = 3.1K
He now has a respectable edge of 3% on this hand.

Huh?

Let's say he plays 10 hands using the numbers above, losing 51% ($51k)/winning 49% ($49k):

Net loss = $2k, 10% rebate = $200

Did I miss something?

 

[21forme]

If this guy was an AP, why would he go public like he did? Looking for a book or movie deal?

 

[Gamblor]

Do you think that it was a session-based rebate? That doesn't seem likely, but maybe so.



Huh?

Let's say he plays 10 hands using the numbers above, losing 51% ($51k)/winning 49% ($49k):

Net loss = $2k, 10% rebate = $200

Did I miss something?

I assume session based is the most likely. The casino would give him a rebate after each loss to entice him back? It seems too much of a hassle to give him a rebate for his overall loss over an extended period of time - when would they choose to do this? Again speculation on my part.

Think of it this way.

L $1000, W $1000, L $1000, W $1000, L $1000

Rebate would be $600? Huge if you can get your win rate closer to 50%, and not 40% in this example.

 

[Gamblor]

If this guy was an AP, why would he go public like he did? Looking for a book or movie deal?

Maybe he's using some extraordinarly advanced and effective AP that even we would not be aware of The article does give the impression that he wins consistently, maybe something completely undetectable to casinos either as they tolerated him for a while (and you know they're watching him like a hawk)? Can't be all that much of a ploppy if he's involved with horse betting. Never can be sure though.

 

[Gamblor]

The newspaper reported Sunday that it had confirmed Johnson's accounts with multiple sources within the casino industry. And one expert told the newspaper it was entirely plausible for one player to win so big at blackjack , if they had sound knowledge of the game, deep pockets and exercised self-discipline.

This is what I find really interesting, I get the sense this insider is hinting at a lot more without going into detail.

Self-discipline, really? Wonder what that means.

 

[21forme]

Maybe he's using some extraordinarly advanced and effective AP that even we would not be aware of The article does give the impression that he wins consistently, maybe something completely undetectable to casinos either as they tolerated him for a while (and you know they're watching him like a hawk)? Can't be all that much of a ploppy if he's involved with horse betting. Never can be sure though.

Perhaps, but OTOH, maybe he lost 20M last year, but talking about that isn't very glamorous.

 

[tthree]

5 million is 50 max bets

Is being up 50 max bets very unusual? As a positive progression better back in the day a really good session would have me up 100 to 200 minimum bets in about 2 hours tops.

 

[Gamblor]

Perhaps, but OTOH, maybe he lost 20M last year, but talking about that isn't very glamorous.

Yeah exactly. Never completely trust any news article, they distort the truth all the time, especially to spice things up.

But if this were the case, wonder why they would bar him?

 

[tthree]

I would have to look at the article again but I think he said they probably wont ...

Okay they banned him at all the casinos he hit big.

 

[Gamblor]

I would have to look at the article again but I think he said they probably wont ...

Okay they banned him at all the casinos he hit big.

Yeah only he mentioned he was banned and they took away perks from him in the article. But this in conjunction with Trop. manager being fired? Even casino mgmt. would not be dumb enough to fire a CEO just because a whale got lucky? Could be other things involved in that firing though, but seems like things are pointing to him being some sort of AP.

Hmm all I can definitively say is that I have not come across any indication this guy is definitely not an AP

 

[LovinItAll]

Think of it this way.

L $1000, W $1000, L $1000, W $1000, L $1000

Rebate would be $600? Huge if you can get your win rate closer to 50%, and not 40% in this example.

I was thinking more along the line of total losses as opposed to individual losing sessions, like:

L $1000, W $1000, L $1000, W $1000, L $1000 = -$1,000, or $200 rebate. Who knows, you're probably right.

As far as whether he's an AP, I know a lot of people think casino management may not be sharp at times (and we don't know how much this guy lost before his heater), but I can't really see this:

===================================================
John Dough, carrying his brushed aluminum Halliburton, entered the Trop and strolled quickly to the high-limit room. A familiar voice greeted him as he stepped up to the felt.

"Hi, John!", Maureen 'Mo' Dealy smiled.

"Hey, Mo."

Mr. Dough's hand slipped into his pocket to retrieve his player's card. With a snap, he deftly spun the plastic rectangle, landing it softly by the playing cards spread neatly on the table. With one motion, he swung the briefcase onto the half orb, popped the chromed latches, and grabbed eight large stacks of $100 bills held together with rubber bands. He placed the cash on the table and Mo quickly counted the greenbacks using the bill counter hidden beneath the table.

One million dollars.

With two hands, Mo stacked off five rows of $10,000 casino chips and slid them to Mr. Dough. He viscerally pushed ten of the chips into the betting circle.

"Checks play!", Mo shouted to a man a few paces away.

Pit boss Will Heatly, barely awake even though it was 3 A.M., walked over to the table.

"Nice to see you again, Mr. Dough. In town long?"

"Just 12 hours this time."

Mr. Heatly swiped the magnetic striped card and handed it back to Mr. Dough.

"Let me know if you need a comp to the buffet or something".

"Sure thing. Thanks."

With that, Heatly quickly returned to another table to observe some suspicious looking characters betting between $25 and $200 per hand. Card counters, he thought. Do they think we're stupid?

Time seemed to freeze in the oxygen-enriched, clockless, soulless environment of the casino. Eight hours had passed, and though the morning sun had long since risen, it still felt early to Heatly. He was smiling from his earlier victory against the card counting team, effectively stopping them with early shuffles, cattle prods, and other counter-measures. His boss would surely notice him now. Heatly passed the still-present Mr. Dough as he prepared to leave the pit area for the final time that day.

"Doin' any good?" Heatly was in a hurry to go home.

Dough made a hand gesture toward nearly five million dollars worth of chips in front of him.

"Up a little. You know how it goes."

"Sure do. Well, hope to see you soon, and good luck!"

"Thanks."

As Heatly rushed away, Dough looked down and smiled at the black ace and red jack the new dealer had pitched him. Good luck indeed, he thought.
=================================================

Seriously, guy is betting $100k a hand. I would think anyone employed by the casino with any knowledge of AP blackjack is sweating the guy pretty hard. They have to have a couple of decent security folks/pit personnel at the Trop, right? It's not exactly their first rodeo, and they're more in the business of 'sure-thinging' than they are gambling, so one would expect that if they thought he had any edge at all they would have booted him. Stranger things have happened, of course.

What do I know, though. If I had any sense, I'd be grinding away in a casino right now exploiting my micro-advantage at VP.

Best ~ L.I.A.

 

[Machinist]

Maybe an inside job of sorts,,,,some collusion with the CEO......Trading dollars for no heat???
Who the heck knows. Maybe laundering some loot and got lucky??
I smell a rat somewhere

Machinist

 

[MangoJ]

Let's say he plays 10 hands using the numbers above, losing 51% ($51k)/winning 49% ($49k):

Net loss = $2k, 10% rebate = $200

Did I miss something?

Yes, if you play 10 hands (I guess you mean a large number of hands, so his EV is met more oeften), you dramatically decrease variance of your trip result.
With decreased variance you decrease EV of your cashback.
If you play 1000 hands of $100 on a trip, you get the above $200 from cashback (while losing $2k each time). A net loss each trip.
If you play 1 hand of $100,000 on a trip you get $10k from half your trips, but still losing $2k on average per trip. Hence you collect $3k in profit on average per trip.

What is the difference between both plays ? EV of the game is the same, as EV doesn't depend how much you bet. The difference is variance.
Now you don't need to play a single hand. Just make sure that your trip variance is high enough. Variance helps you for cashback a lot, and turns out a "loss rebate" into profit in the long run.

 

[LovinItAll]

Yes, if you play 10 hands (I guess you mean a large number of hands, so his EV is met more oeften), you dramatically decrease variance of your trip result.
With decreased variance you decrease EV of your cashback.
If you play 1000 hands of $100 on a trip, you get the above $200 from cashback (while losing $2k each time). A net loss each trip.
If you play 1 hand of $100,000 on a trip you get $10k from half your trips, but still losing $2k on average per trip. Hence you collect $3k in profit on average per trip.

What is the difference between both plays ? EV of the game is the same, as EV doesn't depend how much you bet. The difference is variance.
Now you don't need to play a single hand. Just make sure that your trip variance is high enough. Variance helps you for cashback a lot, and turns out a "loss rebate" into profit in the long run.

While I understand and appreciate the theoretical scenario you're presenting, there are practical issues to consider if one tried to exploit the advantage as described (RoR, 'no way are you pullin' that here', etc.). In your post, I thought you were saying that the rebate was exploitable to a 'regular' player playing a 'common' game, in this case a high stakes game for this particular player.

In fact, most casinos will return ~20% of a players losses in comps. I assumed that the high roller in the article said something like this:

"You give everyday players 20% of their losses in comps. I want my 20% in cash, otherwise I'd have to occupy 6 floors to get the full value you're already extending to other patrons."

If we believe what he said about the 20% rebate, he was a losing player from jump street. There just isn't any way a casino would extend that offer to anyone unless they were dropping big money, and as long as the player is losing, it's just good business to give him a 'rebate'. So the casino wins 80% of whatever he loses instead of 100%. They probably lived with that for awhile before he hit 'em hard, then they pulled the plug.

My thoughts are just speculation. I certainly don't know the details, but I know casinos don't like losing money, and they are very good at tracking/making cash.

 

[MangoJ]

There is a fundamental difference if you comp 20% of your house edge, or if you comp 20% of trips losses in cashback.

I honestly don't know why casinos would do such a flawed offer as cashback on trip losses consistently. But if they were, I would play the same way (high stake blackjack) as the hero in the story.

 

[aslan]

If this guy was an AP, why would he go public like he did? Looking for a book or movie deal?

He must be an AP. First of all, the casinos could easily allow him to keep gambling, but at the limits everyone else is subject to. As the story was told, it was because they let him bet $100,000 coupled with getting lucky, that he won. But then why bar him? The logical inference is that he not only got them to raise the limit, but he also used card counting to get the edge. The casino has a near sure thing if they allow him to continue gambling at customary limits. It's raising the limits that made them vulnerable to such a large hit in the first place.

 

[21forme]

He must be an AP. First of all, the casinos could easily allow him to keep gambling, but at the limits everyone else is subject to. As the story was told, it was because they let him bet $100,000 coupled with getting lucky, that he won. But then why bar him?

Because they are stupid. I know of a casino that barred 10 players in the last year. Only 2 were APs. The others just got lucky and the casino was spooked by their win.

 

[Gamblor]

With that, Heatly quickly returned to another table to observe some suspicious looking characters betting between $25 and $200 per hand. Card counters, he thought. Do they think we're stupid?

Good story L.I.A., sounds about right If it was the R., the suits would have been in a tizzy and gathering around my stack of red chips bet, while this guy was in there blasting away with 100K bets in the HL room.

Who knows what this guy is, but people only tend to recognize and defend themselves against the easy and obvious threats. Somebody really smart and sophisticated, they won't know what hit them.

 

[Jack_Black]

was turned down by Resorts and Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort in Atlantic City. And he says casinos no long offer him a 20 percent discount on his losses or shower him with other high-roller perks.

"I don't think they will let me play anymore," he said of the Atlantic City casinos.

I don't get it. I thought you can't get banned from AC???


this story has become an internet sensation now. they have it on the MSN homepage, Gawker, huffington post, MSNBC, etc