Black Jack Player wins 15 Million.

2

21forme

Well-Known Member
Jack_Black said:
I don't get it. I thought you can't get banned from AC???
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You can't, except for cheating, fighting, rowdiness, etc.

Don't forget, this report comes from the media. Since when do they report something in an accurate an unbiased manner?
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
Jack_Black said:
I don't get it. I thought you can't get banned from AC???


this story has become an internet sensation now. they have it on the MSN homepage, Gawker, huffington post, MSNBC, etc
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They can't ban him, but they can make gambling intolerable for him. They can lower the limits on their tables when he's around. They can shuffle after every round, or they can half-shoe him.
 
T

The Chaperone

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
They can't ban him, but they can make gambling intolerable for him. They can lower the limits on their tables when he's around. They can shuffle after every round, or they can half-shoe him.
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Or they can not offer him a 20% rebate :)
 
C

Concept

Member
Assuming a house edge of -0.41% and stdev per round of 1.5. If this guy was flat betting 100k and getting a 20% rebate I calculated that any rebate requirement less 1,070 rounds would produce an edge for the player.
 
T

The Chaperone

Well-Known Member
Concept said:
Assuming a house edge of -0.41% and stdev per round of 1.5. If this guy was flat betting 100k and getting a 20% rebate I calculated that any rebate requirement less 1,070 rounds would produce an edge for the player.
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Now have him counting, making appropriate strategy variations, possibly spreading to 2, 3 or more hands in big counts, always ending a session on a negative count, switching tables once every couple hours on a negative count, requesting a shuffle once or twice a day, etc.
 
creeping panther

creeping panther

Banned
Dj

I have been doing some research on this gent, Don Johnson, to try and contact him to see if he would do a chat and I am beginning to come to a conclusion, not completely formed, that there is far more to this story than meets the eye, and more to DJ than what has been reported.

I will keep digging.

CP
 
C

Concept

Member
The Chaperone said:
FWIW, I don't think his numbers are anywhere near accurate.
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I agree. He oversimplifies everything way too much.

He uses a standard deviation of 1 unit. Which makes the rebate much worse. The higher the stdev the better the rebate is. We know stdev is higher than 1 unit per round.

He also assumes that your win rate per round is what your advantage is. This is not true. You lose more hands than you win.

To get an accurate answer you have to find the probability of results at various points and find your expectation at each point. To find the probability of a result you can use the normsdist function in excel. What I did was find my expectation at each point from 15mm to -15mm in 10k increments. For any point less than 0 your expectation = result *0.8. You sum up the expectation at all points and then you get your total expectation.

So if we assume the following:
Rounds per Hour 60
Hours 12
Unit 100,000
Stdev per Round 1.5
Edge -0.41% (6D S17 DAS)
Rebate % 20.00%

I get the following results:
Expectation 52,357
Total Bet 72,000,000
Edge 0.07%

Now he possibly could get the casinos to offer him LS and/or RSA to reduce the house advantage. He may also be playing less than 12 hours (eating, bathroom breaks, etc). Throw in some index plays and maybe a 1-2 spread and he could work up a mediocre advantage.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
& another won.......

2 gamblers take NJ casino for more than $11M
ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. – Lightning has struck twice at the Tropicana Casino and Resort, which has lost more than $11 million to just two high-stakes gamblers since April.

Just weeks after a blackjack player beat the casino for $5.8 million, a different gambler won $5.3 million last week.............

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_casino_high_roller (Archive copy)

........
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
2 gamblers take NJ casino for more than $11M
ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. – Lightning has struck twice at the Tropicana Casino and Resort, which has lost more than $11 million to just two high-stakes gamblers since April.

Just weeks after a blackjack player beat the casino for $5.8 million, a different gambler won $5.3 million last week.............

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_casino_high_roller (Archive copy)

........
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Positive variance! Ain't it grand?! :celebrate

You don't suppose they knew what they were doing, do you? :eek:
 
Gamblor

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
creeping panther said:
I have been doing some research on this gent, Don Johnson, to try and contact him to see if he would do a chat and I am beginning to come to a conclusion, not completely formed, that there is far more to this story than meets the eye, and more to DJ than what has been reported.

I will keep digging.

CP
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Hey CP, if you can't contact DJ himself, maybe contacting the reporter who broke the story on him might be an alternative? The reporter might be able to provide more clarifications on what happened, what DJ exactly said, what exactly casino personnel said, etc.
 
F

FrankieT

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
2 gamblers take NJ casino for more than $11M
ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. – Lightning has struck twice at the Tropicana Casino and Resort, which has lost more than $11 million to just two high-stakes gamblers since April.

Just weeks after a blackjack player beat the casino for $5.8 million, a different gambler won $5.3 million last week.............

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_casino_high_roller (Archive copy)

........
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The guys who loses 10-20 million isn't going to report it to anybody (he'd feel pretty stupid) and the casino is going to keep it as quiet as possible. You wonder about all the big losers the casino is keeping hush about.

Another question i've been pondering: What kind of heat would a spread of $100 to $20,000 draw?
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
creeping panther said:
I have been doing some research on this gent, Don Johnson, to try and contact him to see if he would do a chat and I am beginning to come to a conclusion, not completely formed, that there is far more to this story than meets the eye, and more to DJ than what has been reported.

I will keep digging.

CP
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Best let sleeping dogs lie.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
creeping panther said:
I have been doing some research on this gent, Don Johnson, to try and contact him to see if he would do a chat and I am beginning to come to a conclusion, not completely formed, that there is far more to this story than meets the eye, and more to DJ than what has been reported.

I will keep digging.
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His loss-rebate AP play was really a money laundering play for the Triad. zg
 
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