Can u fold it?

[blackjacktilt]

Of course it's wrong to fold this hand, except in very rare situations:
If you always or almost always play at the same poker room, you'll eventually find that there ARE players that will never, ever, ever go all in unless they have the stone cold nuts. Obviously the OP knows this.



He made a value bet of about 1/4 of the pot. Because of the way the hand had played out so far, and because of the OP's knowledge of the BB's habits, the range for this particular villian was almost certainly an overpair. He wanted to bet as much as he could get away with, but not so much as to cause villian to fold.

IMO; OP played the hand perfectly. If I have any criticism at all, it's that I'm not 100% sure that it was worth the $25 to show the hand. He may have given away too much information; not only to the villian, but also to the others at the table. I personally don't WANT others to know that I'm smart enough to make this play.

Value betting is very important, especially with people you play with alot. And his re-raise pre-flop was not a push, it was an overpair. So I have his range to 9's-J's, maybe Aces with his just above a min-raise. I didn't think kings or queens because he plays those hands very aggressively (as I've seen in the past). Kings/Queens was a possibility, but I didn't think so. I narrowed it down to Jacks on the flop, and the turn confirmed my assumption. Always pay attention to people when playing or sitting out, I am not always right, but I'm usually close and this is one of the times I was right on.

 

[blackjacktilt]

Terrible fold imo. You have the second nutz and the fact that he limped pre- flop weights him even more toward 22 than JJ and your getting too good of odds on the turn when he jams. Take your cooler like a man. Your being results oriented thinking your play is good.

Re-read the post mr. ballar. He didn't limp, I had the 3rd nut hand, and I NEVER give money away when I know I'm beat. I'm not perfect, and I do make bad decisions, but the long run is what it's all about.

 

[blackjacktilt]

No, he raised and was 3-bet by JJ. He called IP, ostensibly with some sort of set-mining angle, hit the damn set and then folded a monster hand after pot-committing himself in fear of exactly one particular hand that could beat him. Villain's range in that spot is waaaay wider than precisely JJ. You say that he ended up with over 50% of his stack in the pot because of the way that the hand played out, but if he was going to commit himself and then fold, he should have adjusted his bet sizes to avoid becoming committed.

In my opinion (and to be fair, I'm not a great poker player by several miles), this is a snap-call all day, every day. I'm absolutely never folding here unless I have a very specific and reliable read on the villain.

And there lies my issue with this hand. If I folded and was wrong, my ego and confidence would have took a huge hit. Trust me, I don't fold middle set easily and / or often. I know this guy and by his mannerisms and betting, and instant all in after my turn bet told me he had it.

 

[blackjacktilt]

I have a problem right there.

But I'm not a poker expert.

What problem? I'm a good sport Monkey, and I posted this particular hand for feedback, not to brag about. I've had good plays, bad plays, good days and bad days and I know I'm not the best card player at the table on any given day.

 

[blackjacktilt]

Just an insanely bad fold.

You need to quit playing now.

You are either a terrible player or your reads are so good that you should be playing the big game at Bellagio. I'm guessing it's the former not the latter

FWIW, I don't like the pre-flop play much either. I prolly call and fold to the BB's raise. Much cheaper than donking off 70% of my stack to him

:laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Because I knew I was beat and still had about $600 left in a juicy game. I never got back up to $1200, but left with around $900 for a $400 day.

But you didn't know you were beat—you were afraid of JJ and your guess was "confirmed" when he actually had them. To me, his range given play on the turn is weighted more heavily to AA-QQ. The board isn't even close to becoming dangerous for him, and you're forced to call a river bet anyway, so he would probably get more value by calling or even min check-raising (infuriates people at $2/5) your turn and jamming the river.

You're being results-oriented. You say that you folded because you still had $600 after the fold. Who cares? If you're playing NL, you're playing to get the money in when you have an edge! If you can stack off against a tight player with middle set on a dry board, you will make money in the long run. It doesn't matter how much you had after the hand or how much you walked away with for the session. All that matters is making the correct play during the hand, and in my personal opinion, a fold is a big (maybe huge) mistake there.

Finally, I'm sorry to tear apart the entire hand, but I as others have mentioned, I don't like the PFR. Calling with 44 IP in a live game is easy money when you hit the set (unless you're folding it on the turn!), and a standard raise (4x+1 for each limper) is not enough to convince a bunch of degens that they should fold their ATo or whatever. If you're raising IP with 44 and then even calling a 3-bet from a tight player in the blinds, what were you hoping for, quads? You hit your set, now get every single chip you have into the center of the table and be happy about it. If you can't do that, don't raise your 44 PF, and certainly don't call a 3-bet PF from an OOP tight player.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

If I folded and was wrong, my ego and confidence would have took a huge hit.

I trust you understand the concept of confirmation bias as it relates to gambling. Being afraid of JJ and being shown JJ doesn't make your read "correct." If you play that hand 1000 times and you were right 900+ times, then maybe you're onto something. Otherwise you're looking at what happened completely incorrectly.

Besides, Sucker said that he's not sure $25 was enough for you to reveal the hand because you wouldn't want players at the table to know he's smart enough to make a fold like that. I can't agree less, but I do agree that you probably shouldn't have shown. If a smart opponent knows you will fold middle set under pressure given their tight table image, you become tremendously exploitable!

 

[tthree]

What problem? I'm a good sport Monkey, and I posted this particular hand for feedback, not to brag about. I've had good plays, bad plays, good days and bad days and I know I'm not the best card player at the table on any given day.

I hope you didn't post to brag because you should have known the response you would get. I am one of the few who VERY rarely have correctly folded in similar situations. Some people are so predictable that you know what they have every hand. I play online in a poker club for the most part. Even there the tells for such individuals are huge. They never bluff. They over play certain hands but for the most part bet pure math. The time it takes to bet after the flop is very predictable to fine tune your assessment of their hand. Like I said most good players mix it up enough that I would call no matter what. But there is one or two that you feel you can see their cards their play is so readable. I am not sure if you made the decision that you were pot committed before he hit that I would have folded. No matter what you had 1 out.

If I felt pot committed , on the bet that I committed myself I would be in it until the showdown even if it cost me everything. I've had people over bet their hand with the idea to bluff to the showdown who were so pissed I didn't fold with the hand I had. I try to explain a smaller bet preflop would not have me pot committed and I would have folded but I don't think these players think about pot committing someone or the affect of pot odds.

 

[blackjacktilt]

But you didn't know you were beat—you were afraid of JJ and your guess was "confirmed" when he actually had them. To me, his range given play on the turn is weighted more heavily to AA-QQ. The board isn't even close to becoming dangerous for him, and you're forced to call a river bet anyway, so he would probably get more value by calling or even min check-raising (infuriates people at $2/5) your turn and jamming the river.

You're being results-oriented. You say that you folded because you still had $600 after the fold. Who cares? If you're playing NL, you're playing to get the money in when you have an edge! If you can stack off against a tight player with middle set on a dry board, you will make money in the long run. It doesn't matter how much you had after the hand or how much you walked away with for the session. All that matters is making the correct play during the hand, and in my personal opinion, a fold is a big (maybe huge) mistake there.

Finally, I'm sorry to tear apart the entire hand, but I as others have mentioned, I don't like the PFR. Calling with 44 IP in a live game is easy money when you hit the set (unless you're folding it on the turn!), and a standard raise (4x+1 for each limper) is not enough to convince a bunch of degens that they should fold their ATo or whatever. If you're raising IP with 44 and then even calling a 3-bet from a tight player in the blinds, what were you hoping for, quads? You hit your set, now get every single chip you have into the center of the table and be happy about it. If you can't do that, don't raise your 44 PF, and certainly don't call a 3-bet PF from an OOP tight player.

This is the kind of insight I'm looking for. Maybe I am being to result orientated. Maybe it was a scared guess, and because I was right, I am looking at the hand differently than I should. And the table was a bunch of limping bastards, hence the raise and call with 4/4. I was doing pretty well until that point turning $500 into $1200 in about 4 hours. I appreciate your post and advice.

 

[blackjacktilt]

I trust you understand the concept of confirmation bias as it relates to gambling. Being afraid of JJ and being shown JJ doesn't make your read "correct." If you play that hand 1000 times and you were right 900+ times, then maybe you're onto something. Otherwise you're looking at what happened completely incorrectly.

Besides, Sucker said that he's not sure $25 was enough for you to reveal the hand because you wouldn't want players at the table to know he's smart enough to make a fold like that. I can't agree less, but I do agree that you probably shouldn't have shown. If a smart opponent knows you will fold middle set under pressure given their tight table image, you become tremendously exploitable!

Agreed, but that's when you start changing your game. Showing a big lay down allows you more breathing room to play more aggressively and allows you steal more. but you are right, I should not have shown. My ego sometimes gets in my way. :whip:

 

[blackjacktilt]

I hope you didn't post to brag because you should have known the response you would get. I am one of the few who VERY rarely have correctly folded in similar situations. Some people are so predictable that you know what they have every hand. I play online in a poker club for the most part. Even there the tells for such individuals are huge. They never bluff. They over play certain hands but for the most part bet pure math. The time it takes to bet after the flop is very predictable to fine tune your assessment of their hand. Like I said most good players mix it up enough that I would call no matter what. But there is one or two that you feel you can see their cards their play is so readable. I am not sure if you made the decision that you were pot committed before he hit that I would have folded. No matter what you had 1 out.

If I felt pot committed , on the bet that I committed myself I would be in it until the showdown even if it cost me everything. I've had people over bet their hand with the idea to bluff to the showdown who were so pissed I didn't fold with the hand I had. I try to explain a smaller bet preflop would not have me pot committed and I would have folded but I don't think these players think about pot committing someone or the affect of pot odds.

The villain was a smart, tight player. I knew he knew what he was doing. He played the hand like a set, as did I. I didn't figure 2's or an overpair. Thanks for the feedback. And for the record, I am not dumb enough to attempt to brag about how good I am on this website, I'm not that kind of person anyway, but here? forget it :laugh:

 

[mjbballar23]

He did NOT limp preflop - he THREE-bet it preflop. And the OP states that he knows "certain things" about this player. This type of player is more common than one might think. Also; I wouldn't exactly call a 43:1 shot "good odds on the turn". Well played by BJtilt!

Sorry I didn't see the three bet on the second line...its still not a good fold. Why did u call the 3 bet with 44 if your going to fold when you flop a set in a 3 bet pot LOL!

 

[Jack_Black]

Sorry I didn't see the three bet on the second line...its still not a good fold. Why did u call the 3 bet with 44 if your going to fold when you flop a set in a 3 bet pot LOL!

x2. I'm pretty curious as to why call a re-raise PF with 44. that usually means AA-JJ, especially if he's OOP and TAG. and although you stated that you know villain to play KK-QQ very aggressively, you guessed that he would have JJ-99 PF, giving him the huge starting hand advantage.

 

[blackjacktilt]

x2. I'm pretty curious as to why call a re-raise PF with 44. that usually means AA-JJ, especially if he's OOP and TAG. and although you stated that you know villain to play KK-QQ very aggressively, you guessed that he would have JJ-99 PF, giving him the huge starting hand advantage.

The more and more I read the responses, the more and more I see where I went wrong. My problem is (and I already knew this) is I'm too aggressive with limpers and passive players. Sometimes I crush them, and sometimes I get crushed. I mix up my play constantly in a session going to loose aggressive to tight aggressive and sometimes passive. I'm starting to see that my confidence was blinding my play at this point and I entered and played out a very bad hand, losing money I should not have lost in the first place. Thanks for the comments (good or bad) and advice on what should have been done. I also know I would have seen a flop with this hand, if I chose to limp and called a decent raise (3-4 times BB). I might have lost more money going this route. If I limp / call, flop a set, I might not have been so alert, and not put him on the hand I did. When I raise, and get re-raised it's obvioulsy easier to analyze the play of your opponent because raises and re-raises are usually easy to sum up a hand range. When you limp, and get raised from any position, the range is much wider, especially when the SB and BB raise. Are they protecting? Are they pushing? Do they have a big hand? Can they get away from a hand? etc. Regardless, flopped sets are great, and horrible at the same time.

 

[blackjacktilt]

Sorry I didn't see the three bet on the second line...its still not a good fold. Why did u call the 3 bet with 44 if your going to fold when you flop a set in a 3 bet pot LOL!

You don't know you're going to fold a set unless you have specific information. I understand where you're coming from, but I don't think you are very experienced. You sound like one of those people who criticize play at a table then go bust and complain about it. I'm not very receptive to people who mock me and attempt to belittle me, so take your comments somewhere else.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

The more and more I read the responses, the more and more I see where I went wrong. My problem is (and I already knew this) is I'm too aggressive with limpers and passive players. Sometimes I crush them, and sometimes I get crushed....

That's a problem. On the rare occasions when I play, I limp with big hands all the time and let guys like you do all the raising ("Make 'em pay to see the flop... oh yeah I'm gonna make 'em pay to see the flop...") Then I can "make 'em pay" after I see the flop. Sometimes I'll even wait for the turn, let them deceive themselves as to what I'm raising on. 44 is nothing to be proud of, unless they're suited. :joker:

Remember that as a skilled player you can do more than most with the pre-flop information, but you can do even more after you see the flop. If I called at all I would have given them the business after I saw the 3rd 4 (and of course had a 97.8% chance of losing all my money!)

 

[mjbballar23]

You don't know you're going to fold a set unless you have specific information. I understand where you're coming from, but I don't think you are very experienced. You sound like one of those people who criticize play at a table then go bust and complain about it. I'm not very receptive to people who mock me and attempt to belittle me, so take your comments somewhere else.

If you dont feel comfortable getting it all in when you flop a set, then you should never ever be calling a 3 bet pre flop with 44. 44 plays TERRIBLE postflop unless you flop a set, yet now your looking to fold even though you flopped a set? The logic just doesnt make sense.

Im not trying to belittle or mock anybody here, this is just straight poker theory.

If your making threads like this than your the one with very little experience.

 

[mjbballar23]

He did NOT limp preflop - he THREE-bet it preflop. And the OP states that he knows "certain things" about this player. This type of player is more common than one might think. Also; I wouldn't exactly call a 43:1 shot "good odds on the turn". Well played by BJtilt!

43:1 if we know 100% that the player has JJ here. We have to remember that this is LOL LIVE POKER here. Even the tightest of players are capable of making strange plays at any time. Over playing overpairs is also extremely commons in live games. That alone makes this a call, beside the fact that we already put in 60% of our stack.

 

[Gamblor]

43:1 if we know 100% that the player has JJ here. We have to remember that this is LOL LIVE POKER here. Even the tightest of players are capable of making strange plays at any time. Over playing overpairs is also extremely commons in live games. That alone makes this a call, beside the fact that we already put in 60% of our stack.

Yes, people think a flopping a set is a great hand, because it is Flopping a set with with a pair in your hand is ALWAYS great. As mj mentioned other players make what appear to be odd plays from our perspective.

Also consider that no one else at the table is putting you on a small/middle set, EVER (ok, 99.99999% never ever). Sometimes I think we think the other players might suspect we might have a set and play accordingly, and the play of others begin to seem strange when we think this. If anyone catches my drift.

Having said that I don't think blackjacktilt folding on a turn was the most horrible move, that check raise on the turn would raise the alarms in my head. Again, would have to consider the type of player the villian is.

 

[Gamblor]

That's a problem. On the rare occasions when I play, I limp with big hands all the time and let guys like you do all the raising ("Make 'em pay to see the flop... oh yeah I'm gonna make 'em pay to see the flop...") Then I can "make 'em pay" after I see the flop. Sometimes I'll even wait for the turn, let them deceive themselves as to what I'm raising on.

Do it myself on occasion, but not good to do it all the time You let too many limpers in, and you'll be surprised how often your AA gets cracked by 27 suited There's definitely an art to it. Typically you want to remove enough players so its not a free for all, but not so many that you win $5.