Can u fold it?

[Automatic Monkey]

Do it myself on occasion, but not good to do it all the time You let too many limpers in, and you'll be surprised how often your AA gets cracked by 27 suited There's definitely an art to it. Typically you want to remove enough players so its not a free for all, but not so many that you win $5.

My basic assumption is always that there is a mix of skilled and unskilled players in a poker game. If I've got AA or KK I'm going to make a little bet preflop (1 big blind or so) in case there are skilled players with bad hands on the blinds, that way I can get rid of them very cheaply. The unskilled players I want to catch something, and the flop gives me enough info to tell me if they could have caught enough. This is a reasonable and conservative way to play NL poker, in my opinion, but I'm far from a poker AP.

 

[Sucker]

43:1 if we know 100% that the player has JJ here. We have to remember that this is LOL LIVE POKER here. Even the tightest of players are capable of making strange plays at any time. Over playing overpairs is also extremely commons in live games. That alone makes this a call, beside the fact that we already put in 60% of our stack.

Everything you're saying is almost always true; but what I'M saying is ALSO true: There ARE poker players who simply will not push unless they have the stone cold nuts. They REALLY DO exist, and they ARE identifiable.

I am making the assumption that the OP knows for sure that this player happens to be one of them, in which case he CAN be 100% sure of what he's up against.

Look at it mathematically:
Though I still maintain that there ARE players with whom you CAN be 100% sure; just for the sake of argument; let's say that he's right about the jacks only 80% of the time -
For every 10 times this situation comes up:
1) If he calls the opponents all-in every time, 8 out of 10 times he loses the $545 that he has left. 8 x $545 = $4360. 2 out of ten times he WINS $1672, for a total of $3344. (Granted, one out of 44 times he'll suck out & win, but this is more than offset by the one out of 22 times that his opponent has Queens, Kings, or Aces and hits HIS set on the river)

This should make it quite clear that even if you're ONLY 80% sure that the villian has JJ, the correct play by far is STILL to fold!

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Sucker, you make very good points here. But there's a big killer (and I know this scenario is not the one you're referring to)—many, if not MOST hold 'em players greatly overestimate their player-reading ability.

I guarantee you that you can walk into any card room and find a few dozen mediocre or poor players that have a story or two about a time they had a 100% read on a player. I'm sure that a situation will occasionally (rarely) occur that matches up an unbelievably-predictable player with an expert hand/player-reader. But at the risk of spouting off Bayesian principles like the JG wannabe that I probably am, I fear that it's far more likely that someone is a little over-confident in their ability to nail a particular player's tendencies with a high degree of certainty.

 

[blackjacktilt]

Everything you're saying is almost always true; but what I'M saying is ALSO true: There ARE poker players who simply will not push unless they have the stone cold nuts. They REALLY DO exist, and they ARE identifiable.

I am making the assumption that the OP knows for sure that this player happens to be one of them, in which case he CAN be 100% sure of what he's up against.

Look at it mathematically:
Though I still maintain that there ARE players with whom you CAN be 100% sure; just for the sake of argument; let's say that he's right about the jacks only 80% of the time -
For every 10 times this situation comes up:
1) If he calls the opponents all-in every time, 8 out of 10 times he loses the $545 that he has left. 8 x $545 = $4360. 2 out of ten times he WINS $1672, for a total of $3344. (Granted, one out of 44 times he'll suck out & win, but this is more than offset by the one out of 22 times that his opponent has Queens, Kings, or Aces and hits HIS set on the river)

This should make it quite clear that even if you're ONLY 80% sure that the villian has JJ, the correct play by far is STILL to fold!

There it is, thank you.

 

[blackjacktilt]

Sucker, you make very good points here. But there's a big killer (and I know this scenario is not the one you're referring to)—many, if not MOST hold 'em players greatly overestimate their player-reading ability.

I guarantee you that you can walk into any card room and find a few dozen mediocre or poor players that have a story or two about a time they had a 100% read on a player. I'm sure that a situation will occasionally (rarely) occur that matches up an unbelievably-predictable player with an expert hand/player-reader. But at the risk of spouting off Bayesian principles like the JG wannabe that I probably am, I fear that it's far more likely that someone is a little over-confident in their ability to nail a particular player's tendencies with a high degree of certainty.

I am not a mind reader, but have been playing cards long enough and have studied the game long enough to state that I am usually close. I have obviously been way off at times, which made me study more. The person I was up against will not send it in w/o the hand. The check raise said it all.

 

[blackjacktilt]

My basic assumption is always that there is a mix of skilled and unskilled players in a poker game. If I've got AA or KK I'm going to make a little bet preflop (1 big blind or so) in case there are skilled players with bad hands on the blinds, that way I can get rid of them very cheaply. The unskilled players I want to catch something, and the flop gives me enough info to tell me if they could have caught enough. This is a reasonable and conservative way to play NL poker, in my opinion, but I'm far from a poker AP.

In my experience, limping with big hands ends in dissapointment. I've been playing NL for 8 years now (6 of them decent) and I can't do it. In tourny's, maybe, but I don't really play tournaments. And I f'n hate the min raise!!! lol

 

[blackjacktilt]

That's a problem. On the rare occasions when I play, I limp with big hands all the time and let guys like you do all the raising ("Make 'em pay to see the flop... oh yeah I'm gonna make 'em pay to see the flop...") Then I can "make 'em pay" after I see the flop. Sometimes I'll even wait for the turn, let them deceive themselves as to what I'm raising on. 44 is nothing to be proud of, unless they're suited. :joker:

Remember that as a skilled player you can do more than most with the pre-flop information, but you can do even more after you see the flop. If I called at all I would have given them the business after I saw the 3rd 4 (and of course had a 97.8% chance of losing all my money!)

You're right, the game for me is math and reads. I have learned that aggression against most players will crack them eventually, and eventually the limpers will take their shot and attempt to get aggressive with me with bad hands, because they know that I know they've been playing tight.
I folded because I have played with this dude before and he does not push unless he knows he can, knowing he has the nuts. Trust me, I'm no poker genius, but I am usually pretty good with my reads. Sometimes I'm on, sometimes I fail.

 

[blackjacktilt]

If you dont feel comfortable getting it all in when you flop a set, then you should never ever be calling a 3 bet pre flop with 44. 44 plays TERRIBLE postflop unless you flop a set, yet now your looking to fold even though you flopped a set? The logic just doesnt make sense.

Im not trying to belittle or mock anybody here, this is just straight poker theory.

If your making threads like this than your the one with very little experience.

You don't understand bro... I was going to ship it, but the check raise on the turn combined with the suspect raise on the flop suggested to me he had the jacks. I am not trying to sound like a poker god. I know many people who share their stories here try to make it appear they are the best at what they do. I was simply sharing a hand I played and posted it for feedback on my play. Like I've said a few times now, I'm usually pretty good with my reads and am close (believe it or not there are regular people like myself who can do this), and sometimes my read is an epic fail.
We're cool, just a misunderstanding.

 

[mjbballar23]

You don't understand bro... I was going to ship it, but the check raise on the turn combined with the suspect raise on the flop suggested to me he had the jacks. I am not trying to sound like a poker god. I know many people who share their stories here try to make it appear they are the best at what they do. I was simply sharing a hand I played and posted it for feedback on my play. Like I've said a few times now, I'm usually pretty good with my reads and am close (believe it or not there are regular people like myself who can do this), and sometimes my read is an epic fail.
We're cool, just a misunderstanding.

Nah brah I totally understand.

Folding 44 requires such ridiculously strong reads on a player that making a thread about this hand is pointless because none of us were there to judge this villain for ourselves. I still never fold here in a live 2/5 game

 

[creeping panther]

Poker

This is why this game is a bitch to play NL.

This is also why there are so many Poker players living in their cars or shacking up in dumps together.

So many players think they are so great, when they are really flat gamblers and usually have big mouths.:laugh:

One of the biggest mouths I ever played with, and one who thought he was so great, allowed me to HC him every time, a side skill honed to HCing BJ and other games,,and applied here very well. I flattened the guy in short order and he went off in a foul mouth tantrum.:yikes:

I will take a good BJ game over Poker any day,,because with Poker you never really know,,,just watch the greats fuc# up regularly in HS Poker cash games on TV, they even make me look good at times:laugh:

CP

CP

 

[blackjacktilt]

This is why this game is a bitch to play NL.

This is also why there are so many Poker players living in their cars or shacking up in dumps together.

So many players think they are so great, when they are really flat gamblers and usually have big mouths.:laugh:

One of the biggest mouths I ever played with, and one who thought he was so great, allowed me to HC him every time, a side skill honed to HCing BJ and other games,,and applied here very well. I flattened the guy in short order and he went off in a foul mouth tantrum.:yikes:

I will take a good BJ game over Poker any day,,because with Poker you never really know,,,just watch the greats fuc# up regularly in HS Poker cash games on TV, they even make me look good at times:laugh:

CP

CP

I don't play for living, I couldn't do it. I'd be one of those "shacking it up". But I can and do supplement my income by playing. He allowed you to HC him? :whip: And come on Panther, you don't think those TV shows aren't set up for our entertainment? You really think all those pros want to put up that much money against eachother versus going to the Bellagio (or Vegas in general) and taking out the wannabe pros?

 

[creeping panther]

Ya, real

I don't play for living, I couldn't do it. I'd be one of those "shacking it up". But I can and do supplement my income by playing. He allowed you to HC him? :whip: And come on Panther, you don't think those TV shows aren't set up for our entertainment? You really think all those pros want to put up that much money against eachother versus going to the Bellagio (or Vegas in general) and taking out the wannabe pros?

A testimonial to their vast ego.

Allowed me....:laugh: No, not allowed me, I just saw the opportunity and took it

CP

 

[The Chaperone]

You can keep justifying your awful play, but there's no question you played this hand wrong. The only question is how many times you were wrong.

:whip:

 

[Gamblor]

A testimonial to their vast ego.

Allowed me....:laugh: No, not allowed me, I just saw the opportunity and took it

CP

Yes, poker players do have tremendous egos, almost all of them think they're god's gift to poker.

I've gotten a bit older and wiser, now I just play like a complete wuss and just take the money from the fishes. I'll quickly leave a table and go back to playing blackjack if there's no fishes at table, if there are, I'll plop my butt down for hours or until they leave. Probably the easiest way to make money in a casino.

 

[blackjacktilt]

You can keep justifying your awful play, but there's no question you played this hand wrong. The only question is how many times you were wrong.

:whip:

Guess we are just going to disagree there buddy..... I see what I could have done and what I did. I go with my reads and that's it. And awful play? I don't know about that lunchbox.