Card counting can be an evil, ruthless killer

[Kaiser]

I've been thinking of ways to start this thread, but I'm left just shaking my head and crying softly while recalling last night at the casino. I'm still in shock.

I've been practicing a lot at home with my new dealer's shoe, discard tray, and stack of chips. I'm to the point now where I can deal out 4 or 5 hands worth of cards (sitting on the player's side of course), play BS on all of them, and keep a running count. It's actually getting pretty easy, I'm actually finding myself just "seeing" the proper play without actually doing the math in my head for each hand. The benefits of repetitive practice I guess. All is good. Or so I thought.

So I'm at the casino last night at first base with 3 other people. The count is climbing higher that skirts on highschool girls these days. I'm using Renzey's KISS III count, where I'm at a 10 unit bet when the count hits 24. The count at this table hits that after 1 deck. After 2 decks it's up to 30, and after 3 decks it's up to THIRTY SEVEN. The only problem is, I'm not really financed for max bets, only having $450 in my pocket. I'm betting 6-8 units ($30 to $40) thinking with a count this high, I have to score!

Of course the other guys at the table would all get 20, while I'd get a 10 and a low card, to the dealer's face card. So many hands in a row people would either push their 20s, win with a BJ, or lose to the dealer's BJ, while I sat there crying with 12s, 14s, or 16s. ARRRRGGHHHH!!!

Later on, I played a shoe where the count went astronomical at the end too, the last 7-8 hands were ALL 10s and aces. I won a couple, lost a couple, and pushed the rest with the dealer. I was playing alone, and I managed to cut right to the start of that glut of 10s, so went out with big bets right off the start. I won a few good hands, but lost with my 20 to the dealer's 21 a couple of times too. Major frustration.

I limped out after playing break-even with my last $100 for the last hour or so. I can't get the image of that damn count with all those 10s and aces rolling out of there like it was a rigged game... only to see myself lose more than any of the other dudes at the table who were hitting hard 17s, and all kinds of other bonehead moves.

I know, I know, standard deviation, high counts don't guarantee wins, etc... but my god, the count was so high it was all I could do to not drool on the felt. And then the nice lady took all my chips and I wanted a corner to go hide in.

This is a cruel, cruel game. Lesson learned, and now I'm back to saving up for another starting bankroll. *sigh*

 

[mdlbj]

If possible, spread to 2 hands to get more of the higher cards.

 

[Kaiser]

Oh, yeah... didn't get all the details into the post, sorry. I did that for a short while too. I did while there were 2 or more people at the table, if it was just me and another guy I stayed on a single spot.

 

[mdlbj]

One other thing you might think about is looking at some of the software QFIT has to offer to evaluate your bankroll requirements. Although you may have taken a short term loss, using the correct bet spreads may save you a lot of grief. You were absolutly right about putting the money out when you had the count..

 

[Preston]

Spreading to two hands doesn't have anything to do with the amount of people at the table. Hell, I'd prefer less people as you have one less ploppy likely to bitch about you changing the order of the cards. I make the most money heads up with the dealer.

I had the same thing happen to me last night. Count skyrocketed and I kept getting the 14's and 15's. The flat betting ploppies kept getting the pat hands.

AT one point I was down nearly $1000, but I made about $575 of that back and I'll be going to another casino with a healthy double deck game tomorrow night. Should be able to get the remaining $425 back in a few good shoes.

 

[sagefr0g]

it's a real war

Kaiser, what a great story! just sorry that it wasn't about a winning session for you. you're right it is a cruel, cruel game. wicked and brutal. but you know what? i think your gonna rise up and beat the pants off it.
the thing about blackjack is yeah it's brutal. it's just not normal for contenders such as our selves to engage in a contest where one tends to lose way more often than one wins. no one wants to go home loser but in blackjack even when you are playing an advantage game it happens. you know you can even have way more losing hands than winners and end up winning money because your betting on the advantage and perhaps have some luck. so you can walk out of a joint up on your money and still feel like you got beat up on something fierce. and on the other hand you can play perfectly and bet perfectly with the advantage and walk out with your pockets turned inside out i got one hundred and ninety nine sessions. i've lost thirty sessions and won one hundred sixty nine. every one of those losing sessions made me feel so rotten i thought i was a loser even though the reallity is so far i've had $300 turned into $7000 . but it just takes one losing session to make me feel like a loser. it's because it's normal for us to look at the short term instead of the long term. i just recently pushed my spread to 1:10 from 1:8 . it's been brutal my last three sessions. i lost seventy five units the first two sessions then won fifteen units on the third. the one session i was up forty units and proceeded to finish the night out down thirty units. it's just a real white knuckle roller coaster ride. i played a shoe the other night where the count got juicy. i bet into it on my ramp and in the course of about four rounds won forty dollars and by the fourth round i was only up two dollars and fifty cents. it can drive you nuts if you let it. then the time inbetween sessions you get those doubting Thomas thoughts. yeah it's brutal.
well if you are spreading 1:10 you need to take a significant bank with you so as not to bust out early. i'm gonna start taking one hundred and forty units with me and hope to survive at least an hour. i used to only carry sixty units for a session when i had the 1:8 spread.
i wonder about your method of practice with the shoe and dealing your self. i tryed that but i found it was to much rigamoroll so i just started counting down decks by spreading them on a table like the pit boss's do when they check a new deck of cards. then i write out my basic strategy charts and betting strategy chart a few times a day. sometimes if i haven't gotten a lot of play in at the casino's and feel i need practice playing i play on the computer.
best of luck in the future dude!

 

[jetace]

It just sounds like you are hitting the side of the deviation that I almost always hit. I've had a lot of stupid sessions meaning I went to the casino unprepared. You hit the nail on the head for a lot of counters with that story. So many do fail, but few admit it. I admit freely that I have failed more times than I have won, I attribute that to inexperience and horrible rules at all the casinos I live near (not to mention I was trying to use Hi-Opt II and sucked at side counting). I've never been able to build a large bankroll because of those variables in my play, but continue to try to get it right through countless hours of practice, even if only for the sheer love of math and the game.

The reason I'm telling you all of this.... You're not alone!

 

[supercoolmancool]

Spreading to two hands doesn't have anything to do with the amount of people at the table.

Actually that is the sole detrimining factor. Heads up you play one hand. 2-3 people you play 2 hands of 70% of normal bet, and with 4+ players you play 3 hands of 50%. That is I think. I read that in Blackjack Attack which I read a long time ago so and I may have muffed up the exact numbers but the general idea is there.

Also according to Zengrifter's Grifter gambit, you should spread to 2 hands on negative counts playing heads up and one hand during positive counts.

 

[Cass]

You wanna hear some pain?

I've been thinking of ways to start this thread, but I'm left just shaking my head and crying softly while recalling last night at the casino. I'm still in shock.

I've been practicing a lot at home with my new dealer's shoe, discard tray, and stack of chips. I'm to the point now where I can deal out 4 or 5 hands worth of cards (sitting on the player's side of course), play BS on all of them, and keep a running count. It's actually getting pretty easy, I'm actually finding myself just "seeing" the proper play without actually doing the math in my head for each hand. The benefits of repetitive practice I guess. All is good. Or so I thought.

So I'm at the casino last night at first base with 3 other people. The count is climbing higher that skirts on highschool girls these days. I'm using Renzey's KISS III count, where I'm at a 10 unit bet when the count hits 24. The count at this table hits that after 1 deck. After 2 decks it's up to 30, and after 3 decks it's up to THIRTY SEVEN. The only problem is, I'm not really financed for max bets, only having $450 in my pocket. I'm betting 6-8 units ($30 to $40) thinking with a count this high, I have to score!

Of course the other guys at the table would all get 20, while I'd get a 10 and a low card, to the dealer's face card. So many hands in a row people would either push their 20s, win with a BJ, or lose to the dealer's BJ, while I sat there crying with 12s, 14s, or 16s. ARRRRGGHHHH!!!

Later on, I played a shoe where the count went astronomical at the end too, the last 7-8 hands were ALL 10s and aces. I won a couple, lost a couple, and pushed the rest with the dealer. I was playing alone, and I managed to cut right to the start of that glut of 10s, so went out with big bets right off the start. I won a few good hands, but lost with my 20 to the dealer's 21 a couple of times too. Major frustration.

I limped out after playing break-even with my last $100 for the last hour or so. I can't get the image of that damn count with all those 10s and aces rolling out of there like it was a rigged game... only to see myself lose more than any of the other dudes at the table who were hitting hard 17s, and all kinds of other bonehead moves.

I know, I know, standard deviation, high counts don't guarantee wins, etc... but my god, the count was so high it was all I could do to not drool on the felt. And then the nice lady took all my chips and I wanted a corner to go hide in.

This is a cruel, cruel game. Lesson learned, and now I'm back to saving up for another starting bankroll. *sigh*

I was playing In vegas this weekend and I had my top bet of $1000 out. I Got dealt two 8's v dealer's 6. I thought great! sure money maker with a high count! split them and received 8,3 and 8,2. DD on both hands ended up with a 15 on one and a 20 on the other. Dealer flips up the 5 card in the hole... And you guessed it, out comes that 10!! TWEnty one! Just lost 4k on one hand!! After that I continued to push out the big bets since the count didnt come down. It took me awhile to get over losing that much on one hand!

 

[Jeff25]

Shoe from Hell!

Just got back from the casino... Was doing alright untill I played the shoe from hell. Lost 144 units on one shoe.

 

[ihate17]

The great test

That is what I have called it in the past.

Are you going to be a lifetime winning or losing counter? The shoe from hell is one of the proving grounds and any so called advantage player who tells you they always win and never experienced a shoe like this, is simply a liar.

Will you continue to put out the proper bets when the house is kicking your butt?
Will the loss effect the way you bet on high counts in the future?
Will you steam and continue to place big bets out to get the money back if the count goes back down?

The answers to these questions in the face of a big loss is a test. It is the reason that many give up counting, others do not spread enough to be winners and still others state based on this, that counting does not work.

ihate17

 

[mdlbj]

Kaiser,
We have all had our share of gut wrenching losses. Keep practicing and increase your BR. It is really a study of practical application and a strict psychology of stomaching the losses. No worries. You will do it.

 

[mdlbj]

I was playing In vegas this weekend and I had my top bet of $1000 out. I Got dealt two 8's v dealer's 6. I thought great! sure money maker with a high count! split them and received 8,3 and 8,2. DD on both hands ended up with a 15 on one and a 20 on the other. Dealer flips up the 5 card in the hole... And you guessed it, out comes that 10!! TWEnty one! Just lost 4k on one hand!! After that I continued to push out the big bets since the count didnt come down. It took me awhile to get over losing that much on one hand!

Brutil cass.. I feel your pain.. Did that with a 3k bet at the Wynn

 

[Automatic Monkey]

It's unbelievable isn't it? How the dealer can pull a card out of his ass time after time after time while you bust every 12. Or do you ever notice how often you get an ace when DD on 11?

I'll tell you how this works- as AP's we go into the casino expecting to win. But when we play a hand the biggest advantage we usually have is around 2%. A human being can't discern a 2% difference in quantities, yet we expect to "feel" like we are winning. In reality the feel of the wins and losses for an AP is no different than that of an unskilled player.

This was hard for me to take to, until I came to this realization... there is nothing I can do about it. That's actually a bit of a relief when you think about it. I don't have to work harder. I don't have to play smarter. I did everything right. This variance is built into the game, just like counts moving up and down is, and "going out there and giving 110%" won't do a damned bit of good like it would in a football game. So just relax and play. Play a lot, play right, and you'll be equally shocked by how good things can go and how quickly you can get your money back.

But by all means, please play properly capitalized. When you have $10K in your pocket you don't even notice a $1K loss. No benefit to stressing yourself.

 

[FrankieT]

I was playing In vegas this weekend and I had my top bet of $1000 out. I Got dealt two 8's v dealer's 6. I thought great! sure money maker with a high count! split them and received 8,3 and 8,2. DD on both hands ended up with a 15 on one and a 20 on the other. Dealer flips up the 5 card in the hole... And you guessed it, out comes that 10!! TWEnty one! Just lost 4k on one hand!! After that I continued to push out the big bets since the count didnt come down. It took me awhile to get over losing that much on one hand!

wow you must have an incredible bank roll, or you're playing with an incredibly high RoR

 

[shadroch]

But by all means, please play properly capitalized. When you have $10K in your pocket you don't even notice a $1K loss. No benefit to stressing yourself.[/QUOTE]

I don't know about this. Losing 10% of ones BR,if its $100 or $10,000 on a single bet has to a bit stressful.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

But by all means, please play properly capitalized. When you have $10K in your pocket you don't even notice a $1K loss. No benefit to stressing yourself.

I don't know about this. Losing 10% of ones BR,if its $100 or $10,000 on a single bet has to a bit stressful.[/QUOTE]

I mean pocket stakes, not overall BR which for a part-timer isn't a well-defined number anyway. I'll usually play my green chip game with $3-5K in my pocket for an evening and a win rate of around $60 per hour. If I am down $300-500 or even $1000 it's no big deal. Down $2K is a big deal because then I'm at risk of not being able to get my big fat bets down and that cuts into my big fat win rate.

But I agree that losing any large amount on a single bet is stressful. I'll never forget playing a $10-200 spread and losing $1400 on one hand!

 

[rogue1]

wonged in

ok,i'm backcounting and the count gets up to 35(kiss III count) wong in last round coming up,put up my big bet of fifty bucks,dealer shows a 10 upcard i have 14, a ten and a four, i stand dealer has a ten in the hole,i ask if i can see the next two cards before she shuffles and she says ok and they are both Aces. After reading what happened to Cass i don't feel so bad.

 

[Cass]

Brutil cass.. I feel your pain.. Did that with a 3k bet at the Wynn

that is where i was. I wish they still had S17 on there double deck!

 

[Cass]

wow you must have an incredible bank roll, or you're playing with an incredibly high RoR

there were about 5 hours left in my trip. 15k in pocket another 10k across the street. After that shoe I had to go back over to my hotel and "refill "my pocket cash. I just play for trip ROR. If i go broke so be it. The first 2/3rds of my trip my top bet was $500. I'm barred most places near me now, and it is difficult for me to travel much. I wanted to get the money out so I did! BTW- $500 top bet with a 25k BR for 20hrs of play is about 2% ROR on good DD and six deck games!