Card counting can be an evil, ruthless killer

[sagefr0g]

That is what I have called it in the past.

Are you going to be a lifetime winning or losing counter? The shoe from hell is one of the proving grounds and any so called advantage player who tells you they always win and never experienced a shoe like this, is simply a liar.

Will you continue to put out the proper bets when the house is kicking your butt?
Will the loss effect the way you bet on high counts in the future?
Will you steam and continue to place big bets out to get the money back if the count goes back down?

The answers to these questions in the face of a big loss is a test. It is the reason that many give up counting, others do not spread enough to be winners and still others state based on this, that counting does not work.

ihate17

right on dude! :1st:

 

[sagefr0g]

It's unbelievable isn't it? How the dealer can pull a card out of his ass time after time after time while you bust every 12. Or do you ever notice how often you get an ace when DD on 11?

I'll tell you how this works- as AP's we go into the casino expecting to win. But when we play a hand the biggest advantage we usually have is around 2%. A human being can't discern a 2% difference in quantities, yet we expect to "feel" like we are winning. In reality the feel of the wins and losses for an AP is no different than that of an unskilled player.

This was hard for me to take to, until I came to this realization... there is nothing I can do about it. That's actually a bit of a relief when you think about it. I don't have to work harder. I don't have to play smarter. I did everything right. This variance is built into the game, just like counts moving up and down is, and "going out there and giving 110%" won't do a damned bit of good like it would in a football game. So just relax and play. Play a lot, play right, and you'll be equally shocked by how good things can go and how quickly you can get your money back.

But by all means, please play properly capitalized. When you have $10K in your pocket you don't even notice a $1K loss. No benefit to stressing yourself.

yah those aces comming out when you double your eleven are something and how good the dealer is at pushing your 21 if you do make it or besting your twenties. boggles the mind.
great point about how when you play right and things still go sour there is nothing you can do about it. like you say one just has to keep in mind how good things can go and how quickly you can get your money back.
this all brings to mind how when i was a kid i wanted every thing right now.
it barely quelled my desire for instant gratification but i can remmember the teachers and adults telling us kids that part of growing up is learning to put off the desire for instant gratification and the importance of working towards goals where the reward comes in the future. pretty well fits the situation we find our selves in as advantage players. heck most places where one works you don't get paid for the work you've done until two weeks has passed.

 

[EasyRhino]

So many hands in a row people would either push their 20s, win with a BJ, or lose to the dealer's BJ, while I sat there crying with 12s, 14s, or 16s. ARRRRGGHHHH!!!(

At least you know you're keeping an accurate count. Yeah, I know, small comfort.

It sounds like you maintained your composure at the tables, and stuck with your bet spread, and kept up accurate counting, during this session, right? If so, that's a very good sign.

I'd also recommend evaluating what your max bet is in relation to your bankroll, and how replenishible your bankroll is. Not to mention your general tolerance for risk.

 

[ortango]

Yeah its a brutal game, and I hope that is the worst defeat you ever have. If it is, you are lucky, but at the same time you have to be realistic about your win rate at those stakes.

Remember that one out of six good counters will be a loser after ONE YEAR. Of course the longer you play the better. Want to hear about a wild swing? I had 12 win trips in a row and then 7 losing trips. Finally had a winning trip but it feels weird to actually win after that terrible run.

 

[Kaiser]

I was so discouraged after that night, but I'm fine with it now that I've given it some thought. Actually, I feel a little silly being so upset about a $350 downswing, especially after the reading I've done since then. Particularly the "You've Got Heat" e-book from Barfarkel I just got my hands on. Some of those stories have dozens of swings equal to or larger than this within a week.

My problem is that the $350 was more than 3/4 of my bankroll. (yeah, now that's kind of embarassing to admit...)

I know my counting and play were fine, I just got caught up in a ridiculously high count and tried to triple my bankroll in 10 minutes. I guess this teaches me a lesson that can't as easily be learned by reading an article or something.

I'm working on my skills more than ever, and I'll go back there a little wiser next time. Just need to save a few bucks up!

BTW, thanks for all the good posts in this thread.

 

[Canceler]

This is key!

I think as long as you can truthfully say this...

I know my counting and play were fine,

... then you shouldn't really worry about the inevitable downswings. However, this...

Just need to save a few bucks up!

...will also help immensely!

 

[sagefr0g]

cruel cruel game

at the table she stands cards fanned face down three hundred an twelve of them
stools empty
some where find the courage to jump in
the slot machines tempt me
they are so easy
she is still standing
knowing the freight train is roaring down the track gets me queasy
slots sounds are singing
i sit
eyes meet, each a slight smile
cut it
get out my money not many chips in my pile
cards come out lickity split
got the count
hope i can keep it
disapointment on the mount
it's negative, out comes face after face
four rounds i won
i'll be down soon if the count keeps up at this pace
rounds pass by one by one
lost what i won and even more
round after round count goes up and down
staying negative ever sure
the bias is set inside i frown
got to leave this table
one on one with the dealer
find another
if i'm able
on and on goes the play one negative shoe after another
reach into my wallet again
and again
hours go by
another losing hand, sigh
i'm down so far down does any one hear my prayers
and now the tables are all full of boosers
find one with just a few players
looks like i'm one of the losers
finally the count raises
i have eleven, double down get an ace
the dealer busted on the faces
up and up the advantage goes my thoughts are dizzy
time to get busy
over the top bet one on each spot
i'm so nervous, the count i can't recall
blackjack on one spot
sixteen on the other is all
dealer ace
insurance bet i place
lost insurance
surrender the stiff
got to take the chance
pit is in a tiff
time to go
my roll i didn't blow
won ten buck
thank you lady luck

 

[EasyRhino]

Remember that one out of six good counters will be a loser after ONE YEAR.

This chestnut continues to terrify me.

 

[positiveEV]

This chestnut continues to terrify me.

Is he serious? 1 out of 6? After 1 year of playing???

 

[mdlbj]

Statistically 1 out of 99.99 percent. But who is counting..

Dude, I have been practicing playing loosing winning re thinking my bankroll counting method and everything.. One really has to want to do it..

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by ortango View Post
Remember that one out of six good counters will be a loser after ONE YEAR.

This chestnut continues to terrify me.

haven't come across that statistic before......
the one that gives me the creeps is for risk of ruin.
say you play with an ROR = 1%
that would indicate if there were 99 clones of your self that one will end up losing his entire bankroll.
actually with a ROR of one percent your chances of survival and sucess are quite good but it's still creepy

 

[ScottH]

That 1 out of 6 statistic obviously should come with some # of hands played. The more hands you play the better chance you have of coming out winner for the year.

 

[ortango]

In BJ Attack by Don Shlesinger he runs sim with BJRM. 6 players playing Hi-Lo with indexes, backcounting, 75% pen on 6d. They play 400 hours a year each, for 5 years, a total of 10,000 hours, or 1 million hands. Obviously this is long run and they make a lot of money. Additionally, all players reach profit after the 5 years. However, although all are playing with the same skill, in the first year one player is significantly behind.

Just as sure that the long run brings profits, the long run will also increase the chance for longer losing streaks, often ones that can last a year. Of course you can't possibly lose every trip for a year, we are talking about being behind your original BR after one year, even if it is $10. In Burning the Tables by Anderson and in other books where people have played for a few decades, they do tell of years that have been "losing years".

 

[EasyRhino]

Just out of curiosity ortango, does Schlesinger write what % of bankroll these simmed players were betting?

 

[bluewhale]

In BJ Attack by Don Shlesinger he runs sim with BJRM. 6 players playing Hi-Lo with indexes, backcounting, 75% pen on 6d. They play 400 hours a year each, for 5 years, a total of 10,000 hours, or 1 million hands. Obviously this is long run and they make a lot of money. Additionally, all players reach profit after the 5 years. However, although all are playing with the same skill, in the first year one player is significantly behind.

Just as sure that the long run brings profits, the long run will also increase the chance for longer losing streaks, often ones that can last a year. Of course you can't possibly lose every trip for a year, we are talking about being behind your original BR after one year, even if it is $10. In Burning the Tables by Anderson and in other books where people have played for a few decades, they do tell of years that have been "losing years".

hopefully i don't end up with a "losing lifetime"!
but in all seriousness, if the variance is that high, doesn't this get back to almost outright gambling, unless you work in team play or some other form of gaining a bigger advantage/reducing variance?

 

[sagefr0g]

hopefully i don't end up with a "losing lifetime"!
but in all seriousness, if the variance is that high, doesn't this get back to almost outright gambling, unless you work in team play or some other form of gaining a bigger advantage/reducing variance?

i hope you don't too bluewhale.
yep if there is a risk of ruin there is a chance of going bust. so yes it's gambling.
i look at variance as a two edged sword. yes it can make you go bust but it can also send you way up over your expectation in the short run. if you are so lucky then you can use that windfall to strengthen your position with respect to risk of ruin.
example lets say your playing with a bankroll and bet ramp/spread that affords you a two percent risk of ruin. and let us say you are lucky enough that through variance your bankroll increases so significantly that you can now adjust your bet ramp and spread so that you have only a one percent risk of ruin and still have about the same expectation or perhaps increase your bet ramp and spread for a little higher ROR but higher expectation.
as i see advantage play, it has an element of gambling to it just as most endeavors in life do especially when you are looking to procure some kind of gain. in a way variance is a vital part of whole risk/gain scenerio.

 

[mdlbj]

hopefully i don't end up with a "losing lifetime"!
but in all seriousness, if the variance is that high, doesn't this get back to almost outright gambling, unless you work in team play or some other form of gaining a bigger advantage/reducing variance?

And thats only if your play perfectly.

 

[ihate17]

Ortango's 1 in 6 seems right to me

If I remove my first 5 years of counting, where I lost in 3 of the 5 years, had little in the way of a library, was living overseas and using a method that an uncle of mine began using in the 1950's against single deck games, then losing one year out of six is about what I have averaged over the past 25 years. In speaking with other lone counters, they also have experienced that bad year where several horrid sessions put you into a hole that you just do not climb out of in the space of a year, but they do eventually turn it around.
It is one reason that playing blackjack for a living is best done in the team format. The sample number is much larger for a team, so while you are losing, your teamates pick you up and in the following year you very well may be returning the favor. Playing at a very small advantage a bad year will come and it gives more reason to look for other, larger advantages like hole card play.

ihate17

 

[Kaiser]

Well, I finally managed to put together another $200 and hit the casino last night. I'd be working at home a lot every day, and I was ready to make back my recent casino "donation".

I plodded through a neutral 6 deck shoe and broke even. The next one has the count up to 25-27 after 2 decks and it stays there. (I use the KISS III count where you're at a 10 unit bet at a count of 23 or higher)

Since I was majorly under financed again, I would only go to a 2 or 3 unit bet ($5 units) no matter how high the count was.

Well, hand after hand after hand, I got my ass handed to me by the dealer. I'd either push or I'd lose. I kind of kept track of what I would have lost if I had actually been pushing 10 unit bets out there, and I'd have gone broke twice over easily. This lasted through a few more really good shoes, too. The count would go up but I just wasn't winning my share of hands. I'd use the count to make a few changes to my plays, but not really my betting.

Tough game when you don't have the money behind you to bet like you should, and lady luck has you bent over the felt to boot.

I'm not too upset though, I managed to wind up down 1 unit after 2 1/2 hours of play, and I had a lot of fun with the people at the table. Only downside was that I got almost too friendly with some of them, and after a while I was being asked for advice on almost every hand. I think I was getting heat for telling people to stand when they'd otherwise normally hit when the count was really high. I'd use my "my back is tingling man, it's a sign" line. Hell, a couple times I used my tingling thing and put out a $15 bet, only to have these 3 guys at the table also go from $5 to $15, and we'd win. Once both guys on one end got blackjacks with the $15 bets out, and they were going crazy.

Pretty low bets, but it was still kind of cool.

Oh, one other funny thing that happened. I noticed a major run of high cards and kept my eye on that part of the discard tray. I tracked it through the shuffle, and the dealers here take really small plugs when they're shuffling so they didn't get messed up with too many other cards. I tried to get the cut card, but the semi-newbie at third base grabs it before I can. I still have my eye on the sweet section, and this guy cuts about 4 cards into it! So now this section is right off the top and I put out a $15 bet (and the followers at the table do the same). The 4 of us at the table got 2 20s and 2 blackjacks while the dealer busted.

Just watching that happen almost made up for the rest of the night. Too bad I didn't have the cajones to stick a good bet out there.

 

[mdlbj]

Awesome Kaiser!! I think you may want to switch to a more powerful counting system. Sounds like you are doing ok with keeping the count when their are distractions at the tables..