Tarzan
Banned
The Right Stuff
Having just read through this thing, I might as well toss my thoughts out there although it's nothing that I haven't said before. As noted, card counting makes no guarantees of success. Remember the movie "Good Fellas" where Robert Deniro's character is at the racetrack with his various gangster buddies and the race is on? Upon noticing that the one guy, the bald fat guy that had the remarkable ability to have never won a single bet in his life was cheering for the same horse to win, Deniro makes a face indicating disgust and rips up his tickets and throws them in the air before the race is even over although this horse was in the lead. Of course the horse lost, true to form... but who knows, you might be THAT GUY! Most people fail at card counting for one reason or another.
I state this not to be mean, not to rip on you but to prove a point. Card counting and advantage play in general means you have a better shot than most. It is such a slim margin by which you are operating under that it can go either way, with an overall positive outcome if you can withstand the long haul. Most people are underfinanced, less than proficient and various other factors which inhibit results, they simply cannot withstand that long haul. Something Ken Uston talked about, the "rule of big numbers"... if you have an overwhelming bankroll it doesn't hurt. If you played 10 sessions and took a beating to the point that it affects you emotionally, your bankroll is not big enough or you are overbetting your bankroll. Shiznites noted having a 1200 unit minimum bankroll and he is correct---Heavy emphasis on MINIMUM part of that statement. If you are playing properly and are skillful enough, you could be making roughly 1.5 units an hour, not exactly any sort of "road to riches". I say this because this is my consistent average for many years and I have been doing this a LOOOONGGG time. The swings up and down are incredible though, it's absolutely nerve racking at times. You really have to have enough money that you never sweat any loss whatsoever.
By the same token if you took 10 losing sessions in a row, you might need to look at your proficiency level, your counting method, your spread, your playing conditions and rules and other factors. Playing lower stakes games? Overwhelming odds against "the little guy" as noted by Sagefrog are in place for lower stakes games, making it all but impossible to win even WITH counting, particularly in AC. The percentages are so small and crucial that every little bit of additional house edge and rules that are a disadvantage to the players means a lot and the casinos prey on these people with limited funds that are willing to play impossible to win at odds the way an owl descends on a mouse with it's talons in the night. The mice rarely win.
The game has not gotten easier over the years, it has gotten worse. What was "open game" and "open season" many years ago has tightened up considerably. Even 25 years ago most counters failed miserably, primarily over ineffective bankroll management, limited bankroll or poor strategy, so with H17, 6:5, 8 decks, autoshufflers, hole card readers in this day and age you expect to win effortlessly? It's not going to happen.
I have seen people not be selective enough about what playing conditions they play under. Show me any player at a low stakes table in a Harrah's Casino and I'll show you living proof of that. Casino countermeasures, however unwarranted and costly, amounts to them basically hurting about 1% of their players, causing them to make LESS money but not stopping them from turning a profit and causing them to lose out on a MUCH larger amount of money that they would be pulling down from the other 99%. Crazy and stupid? Yes! This is not a cost-effective practice... but hey, back when they were burning people at the stake for being witches in Salem, Mass. way back when it made all the sense in the world at the time even though we look back on it now and think it sort of crazy and stupid. Most people attempting card counting/advantage play fail, plain and simple. There is no free lunch, no easy pickings, no brass ring. You are fighting with all your might to make a steady 1% on your investment and it can only be measured in years, not 10 playing sessions, not even 10 months. A few mistakes are a few mistakes too many also; It's easy to make mistakes and you can't take any of them back. "Want to be" card counters are picked off like flies with a flyswatter, most fail and contribute to the casinos bottom line much more than the few that are taking anything OUT of the casinos. Those very few that are taking money OUT of the casinos? They do it very consistently so what does that tell us? This is no coincidence.
One more thing... there are people out there that THINK they are advantage players but are clearly not. Please allow me to point out a case in point. I was headed out with a friend to the casino (that knows what I do) that talked of another friend of his that professed to be a card counter and proficient blackjack player. He's a stockbroker so knows a lot of people from all over. He stated, "My card counting friend said you should always bet big on the first hand because you usually always win the first hand." With a puzzled look, I asked "Are you sure he said that? Just like that word per word?" (There is a reason for a larger bet on the first hand and THAT AIN'T IT! See some of the words of wisdom of Stanford Wong for the ACTUAL reason). I had to say, "Listen, your friend is an amateur to have made some ridiculous statement like that... counting or not, he is an advantage player as much as I have a strong resemblance to Mary Poppins."
Mathematical analysis and understanding financial aspects of the game, bankroll management and being well financed, strategy and playing conditions/rules are all integral components equally important to card counting itself and falling short of the mark in ANY of these categories and this is why so many fail. There is more to it than just counting cards. What does this truly mean? It means that the original statement that "card counting does not work" is TRUE, with the basis of this being that proficiency and knowledge in these other crucial factors are required and critical to be successful. Card counting in itself is not enough. Read, train hard and study up because there is no free lunch, no brass ring. Oh... and let's not leave out Ken Uston's "rule of big numbers", so having half a million to a million or so to work with doesn't hurt either...
Okay, I have babbled on and bored the sh*t out of you guys enough for one day...
Having just read through this thing, I might as well toss my thoughts out there although it's nothing that I haven't said before. As noted, card counting makes no guarantees of success. Remember the movie "Good Fellas" where Robert Deniro's character is at the racetrack with his various gangster buddies and the race is on? Upon noticing that the one guy, the bald fat guy that had the remarkable ability to have never won a single bet in his life was cheering for the same horse to win, Deniro makes a face indicating disgust and rips up his tickets and throws them in the air before the race is even over although this horse was in the lead. Of course the horse lost, true to form... but who knows, you might be THAT GUY! Most people fail at card counting for one reason or another.
I state this not to be mean, not to rip on you but to prove a point. Card counting and advantage play in general means you have a better shot than most. It is such a slim margin by which you are operating under that it can go either way, with an overall positive outcome if you can withstand the long haul. Most people are underfinanced, less than proficient and various other factors which inhibit results, they simply cannot withstand that long haul. Something Ken Uston talked about, the "rule of big numbers"... if you have an overwhelming bankroll it doesn't hurt. If you played 10 sessions and took a beating to the point that it affects you emotionally, your bankroll is not big enough or you are overbetting your bankroll. Shiznites noted having a 1200 unit minimum bankroll and he is correct---Heavy emphasis on MINIMUM part of that statement. If you are playing properly and are skillful enough, you could be making roughly 1.5 units an hour, not exactly any sort of "road to riches". I say this because this is my consistent average for many years and I have been doing this a LOOOONGGG time. The swings up and down are incredible though, it's absolutely nerve racking at times. You really have to have enough money that you never sweat any loss whatsoever.
By the same token if you took 10 losing sessions in a row, you might need to look at your proficiency level, your counting method, your spread, your playing conditions and rules and other factors. Playing lower stakes games? Overwhelming odds against "the little guy" as noted by Sagefrog are in place for lower stakes games, making it all but impossible to win even WITH counting, particularly in AC. The percentages are so small and crucial that every little bit of additional house edge and rules that are a disadvantage to the players means a lot and the casinos prey on these people with limited funds that are willing to play impossible to win at odds the way an owl descends on a mouse with it's talons in the night. The mice rarely win.
The game has not gotten easier over the years, it has gotten worse. What was "open game" and "open season" many years ago has tightened up considerably. Even 25 years ago most counters failed miserably, primarily over ineffective bankroll management, limited bankroll or poor strategy, so with H17, 6:5, 8 decks, autoshufflers, hole card readers in this day and age you expect to win effortlessly? It's not going to happen.
I have seen people not be selective enough about what playing conditions they play under. Show me any player at a low stakes table in a Harrah's Casino and I'll show you living proof of that. Casino countermeasures, however unwarranted and costly, amounts to them basically hurting about 1% of their players, causing them to make LESS money but not stopping them from turning a profit and causing them to lose out on a MUCH larger amount of money that they would be pulling down from the other 99%. Crazy and stupid? Yes! This is not a cost-effective practice... but hey, back when they were burning people at the stake for being witches in Salem, Mass. way back when it made all the sense in the world at the time even though we look back on it now and think it sort of crazy and stupid. Most people attempting card counting/advantage play fail, plain and simple. There is no free lunch, no easy pickings, no brass ring. You are fighting with all your might to make a steady 1% on your investment and it can only be measured in years, not 10 playing sessions, not even 10 months. A few mistakes are a few mistakes too many also; It's easy to make mistakes and you can't take any of them back. "Want to be" card counters are picked off like flies with a flyswatter, most fail and contribute to the casinos bottom line much more than the few that are taking anything OUT of the casinos. Those very few that are taking money OUT of the casinos? They do it very consistently so what does that tell us? This is no coincidence.
One more thing... there are people out there that THINK they are advantage players but are clearly not. Please allow me to point out a case in point. I was headed out with a friend to the casino (that knows what I do) that talked of another friend of his that professed to be a card counter and proficient blackjack player. He's a stockbroker so knows a lot of people from all over. He stated, "My card counting friend said you should always bet big on the first hand because you usually always win the first hand." With a puzzled look, I asked "Are you sure he said that? Just like that word per word?" (There is a reason for a larger bet on the first hand and THAT AIN'T IT! See some of the words of wisdom of Stanford Wong for the ACTUAL reason). I had to say, "Listen, your friend is an amateur to have made some ridiculous statement like that... counting or not, he is an advantage player as much as I have a strong resemblance to Mary Poppins."
Mathematical analysis and understanding financial aspects of the game, bankroll management and being well financed, strategy and playing conditions/rules are all integral components equally important to card counting itself and falling short of the mark in ANY of these categories and this is why so many fail. There is more to it than just counting cards. What does this truly mean? It means that the original statement that "card counting does not work" is TRUE, with the basis of this being that proficiency and knowledge in these other crucial factors are required and critical to be successful. Card counting in itself is not enough. Read, train hard and study up because there is no free lunch, no brass ring. Oh... and let's not leave out Ken Uston's "rule of big numbers", so having half a million to a million or so to work with doesn't hurt either...
Okay, I have babbled on and bored the sh*t out of you guys enough for one day...
