CVCX vs CVData results
- Thread starter fwb
- Start date
So?QFIT said:
Lets be clear on how Wr/Hr and Avg Bet are calculated.
Wr/Hr = Weighted avg of TC Freq x Optimal Bet at each TC x Local EV%.
Avg Bet = Weighted Avg of TC Freq x Optimal Bet at each TC.
The only difference appears between the two equations seems to be that with Wr/Hr, there is the extra factor of Local EV%. I still don't see how this accounts for WR/Hr increasing at a faster rate than Avg Bet.
Right now I do not currently have CVCX installed so I am going to try and create an example to illustrate what you are saying.QFIT said:
Suppose the counter puts out his max bet of $200 at TC >= +7 using a 20 to 1 spread. Let us also say that his avg bet = $100 and he earns $100/hr for playing 100 rounds. Hence, his Global EV% = 1%. Assuming the sum for TC Freqs >= 7 is 2%, and that we double his max bet to $400 at TC >= 7, then wouldn't his avg bet now increase from $100 to $104 for a 4% increase?
In so far as WR is concerned, if the weighted avg EV% for TC >= 7 is 5%, then wouldn't the WR/Hr after we double the top bet = [2% x 5% x $200] + $100 = $120. So the Wr/Hr increases from $100 to $120 for a 20% increase as a result of doubling top bet.
It would appear that Global EV is now $120/$104 = 1.15%. Prior to doubling max bet, it was only 1%. So I guess it did increase after all.
Does this example make any sense, or did it just illustrate what you were saying by fluke?
QFIT, one other question for you regarding which calculator would be most practical to use given the following situation.
I initially devised a betting ramp that used a spread of 2x1 unit to 2x20 units. I capped it at 20 units because that is what a 60k bank would permit and maintain about a 5% lifetime ROR. But should I really be concerned with simple ROR when there are real world constraints in place?
In other words, rather then worry about simple ROR, wouldn't it be more practical to just use the double barrier calculator to assess ROR? The life of the bank is 400 hours (short, I know) and the goal will probably be about 40k. So, say I recompute my ramp with a larger unit such that the simple ROR calculator now brings back 25% ROR but the DB calculator reports a 5% ROR. Is this a smart way to play it? A 25% ROR is almost double kelly, but then again I am not playing for an eternity anyway.
Note: I am not resizing my unit regardless if my bank grows or shrinks, so I don't think the geometric growth rate of the bank will be come into play.
Thanks for any insight,
MJ
I initially devised a betting ramp that used a spread of 2x1 unit to 2x20 units. I capped it at 20 units because that is what a 60k bank would permit and maintain about a 5% lifetime ROR. But should I really be concerned with simple ROR when there are real world constraints in place?
In other words, rather then worry about simple ROR, wouldn't it be more practical to just use the double barrier calculator to assess ROR? The life of the bank is 400 hours (short, I know) and the goal will probably be about 40k. So, say I recompute my ramp with a larger unit such that the simple ROR calculator now brings back 25% ROR but the DB calculator reports a 5% ROR. Is this a smart way to play it? A 25% ROR is almost double kelly, but then again I am not playing for an eternity anyway.
Note: I am not resizing my unit regardless if my bank grows or shrinks, so I don't think the geometric growth rate of the bank will be come into play.
Thanks for any insight,
MJ