Dumbest thing I've heard said at the table

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Hey,
2 questions:
1. Can you please explain wonging in and out? (i understand that wonging in is basically sitting down on a high count) But from what i've heard is that you can start on a fresh shoe, and "wong" out when the count drops, and this increases your advantage??

2. I need some good basic indecies for the Hi/Low count. I've heard about the "illustrious 18", maybe those will do. But basically i just want a few for now. O and they will be used for BJ, AC rules... DAS S17 8D split 3 times, no surr.

thanks a lot!

wonging is good for people who dont want to vary their bets very much, if at all.. technically if you only played when the count was high, you would make money with a flat bet.. i just started counting, and because i only have $1000 bankroll, and i play $10 blackjack, i cant vary my bets, so i just wong.. i actually just play only when the RUNNING count is positive, which i know doesnt mean im making money, but at least the .45% house edge will be lower, and thats what gambling is about, minimizing your losses (its harder than you think to make money by counting cards; yes it looks good on paper but it takes a big bankroll and other such things, as u wud need like a 5% player edge for winning to be "guaranteed")

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

you pretty much answered your own question. when you wong in you may want to size your bet so that it is optimal with respect to your overall bankroll and the advantage that presents.
the reason that wonging in and wonging out is advantageous is that you avoid disadvantgeous counts (those are the times that you normally lose more wagers than you win) and additionally you play more often when the count is advantageous (those are the times that you normally win more wagers than you lose).


i'd just go with the illustrious 18. that gives you near 80% of the advantage you'd realize from all of the departures.

best regards,
mr fr0g

actually it gives u over 90%

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

aren't all two card counts of 21 soft and naturals? that is, if there is a double down situation (meaning there are only 2 cards out, since thats when you can double), then it has to be a natural? Or are there places out there where doubling with more than two cards is allowed? hmmm, that must be quite a good rule if it is out there. I've never heard of it, but perhaps it is. Any thoughts?

remember, if you split and get a natural, you get paid 1:1

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

I've heard that too and I just can not find a way for that to make any sense, even using ploppy logic.

im not sure what you or the person who said that means by that, but the dealer has the highest chance of getting 21 with a 2 (besides an ace of course)

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

According to Avery Cardoza when the dealers' upcard is a 2 he will get a hand of 18 or better slightly more than 50% of the time.

thats right, but i believe cardoza was the one blackjack book that had many errors in it.. the dealer on average will get 18.4 or so when they make their hand, and also, like i said above, the dealer has the best chance of 21 with a 2, except of course for the ace

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

somehow that makes sense to me but i'm not sure why. can you explain how it would be that having played a 'large' number of hands makes for a small percentage being transformed into a large percentage. or am i just totally misunderstanding your point?

the % doesnt change, hes just saying that you have $100, and take 1% of that, u now have $1.. do that 100x u have $100, do that a million times u have a million dollars.. its like how a pack of cigs is $5, but over a lifetime its $1000s

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

i get easily confused on statistical matters and probability.

probably shouldnt be gambling then unless you flat bet with a basic strategy sheet

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Great thread but even better is the irony to post a thread about dumbness and not even get the spelling of Ms. Terri Schiavo correct.

is she dead yet? i remember years ago the husband wanted to kill her or something, but i forgot wut happened with that

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

No way, that guy will help you much more than he hurts you. After all, it's guys like that that keep guys like us in business.

-Sonny-

actually, it can be looked at the other way too.. if everybody played basic strategy and AVOIDED BAD GAMES then casinos would be forced to keep blackjack games with .5% house edges, instead of what they are doing now, which is simply supply the shittiest games possible as long as the demand stays up.. this is like the "defense vs offense" in sports arguement.. i think for both its 50/50, in terms of are ploppys hurting or helping.. now i agree the casinos wouldnt let people count cards all day long, but the reason 6:5 and other such rules exist is only due to ploppys.. i wonder if no gambling ploppys of any kind existed, what would casinos be like? would the worst games in the casino have only 2% house edges?

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Chances are excellent standing on a 4-card 16 vs 10 was, indeed, the correct play. Even without card-counting.

Basically, that would be Basic Strategy.

your wrong kasi, as far as 8 decks, DAS, DA2, 3 splits, S17 goes, along with probably 90% of blackjack games around the world

 

[SystemsTrader]

your wrong kasi, as far as 8 decks, DAS, DA2, 3 splits, S17 goes, along with probably 90% of blackjack games around the world

Actually you are wrong SilentBob and Kasi is right. The correct basic strategy play is to stand on a 3 or more card 16 v 10 or a 16 v 10 as a result of a pair split.

 

[Kasi]

probably shouldnt be gambling then unless you flat bet with a basic strategy sheet

Don't u consider that statement a little ironic coming from someone who says "i just started counting, and because i only have $1000 bankroll, and i play $10 blackjack, i cant vary my bets, so i just wong i actually just play only when the RUNNING count is positive, which i know doesnt mean im making money, but at least the .45% house edge will be lower, and thats what gambling is about, minimizing your losses"?

It just sort of sounds like, despite ur statistical and probability knowledge, that u knowingly flat-bet a game that you state will not make u money and in all probability will eventually cause u to lose ur entire 100 unit bankroll.

 

[sagefr0g]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g
i get easily confused on statistical matters and probability

probably shouldnt be gambling then unless you flat bet with a basic strategy sheet

lol a'int that the truth.
but really there is a lot you can accomplish with just rote memory with respect to basic strategy and indices and an understanding of when you have the advantage and to what degree you have an advantage.

 

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by sagefr0g
i get easily confused on statistical matters and probability

lol a'int that the truth.

Hey - I was defending u lol.

And, actually, more broadly speaking, I really don't think a knowledge of statistics and probability is a necessary pre-requisite to successful card-counting.

Certainly, I have formal knowledge of neither, never having taken a statistics course. Maybe I had a probability course in 10th grade. I think I didn't do very well lol. 2 out of 3 chance anyway lol. Assuming I actually took one lmao.

On the other hand, I'm not a successful card-counter either :grin:

 

[Kasi]

Actually you are wrong SilentBob and Kasi is right.

As my father used to say

John Day died defending his right of way.
Though he was as right as the day is long,
he's just as dead as if he were wrong.

So now I say

though I'm as right as the day is long
I'm just as poor as if I were wrong.

Since no one will actually live long enough to enjoy that extra dollar making the "right" play will generate.

So, to get all bent out of shape over "right" and "wrong" is sometimes just wrong lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

Hey - I was defending u lol.
:

heh heh i know.... i just think silent has a point regarding how it would be helpful to understand statistics and probability but more so he has a point about the dangers of even playing blackjack wether or not one is dumb or dumber :joker:

And, actually, more broadly speaking, I really don't think a knowledge of statistics and probability is a necessary pre-requisite to successful card-counting.
:

same here, thats actually what i was trying to say also.

Certainly, I have formal knowledge of neither, never having taken a statistics course. Maybe I had a probability course in 10th grade. I think I didn't do very well lol. 2 out of 3 chance anyway lol. Assuming I actually took one lmao.
:

me neither, i dropped out of high school in the 10th grade. but i did once sleep in a motel 6 and finally go on to college but when it comes to advantage play how i feel is that i've got a disjointed, half understanding such that my conclusions and judgements regarding the craft may often lead me astray. which come to think of it is a lot like what the snippet of intelligence one gleans from card counting gives you at the tables. lol

On the other hand, I'm not a successful card-counter either :grin:

i'm not really sure i am either. i do know i've had a lot of luck mixed in with trying to apply the AP craft.

 

[ChefJJ]

Since no one will actually live long enough to enjoy that extra dollar making the "right" play will generate.

Why not?!?

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Actually you are wrong SilentBob and Kasi is right. The correct basic strategy play is to stand on a 3 or more card 16 v 10 or a 16 v 10 as a result of a pair split.

no, u hit a 16 vs a 10.. i dont know wut game u are playing, but im playing 8 decks, with the AC common rules S17.. u always hit a 16 vs a 10, it dont matter how u got to 16, so i have no idea what your talking about.. go to the basic strategy engine on this site and look it up for yourself (shudnt have to change any of the rules)

 

[Sonny]

u always hit a 16 vs a 10, it dont matter how u got to 16, so i have no idea what your talking about..

He's talking about composition dependent basic strategy. The correct strategy for certain hands might change based on the cards in the hand. Hands like 16 vs. 10 and 12 vs. 4 are very close calls. For that reason it is usually more correct to stand on a 16 vs. 10 if it is made up of three or more cards.

http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/consistency-is-not-the-best-thing-with-16-against-a-10-27377
http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/improve-your-basic-strategy-game-beyond-basic-strategy-12160

-Sonny-

 

[rogue1]

Rule of 45

Fred Renzey in Blackjack Bluebook II write osf the Rule of 45-If your 16v10 has a 4 or 5 in it ,stand.