First-time BJI poster, with Advice

[Brutus]

How much do people pay for your system?

 

[captheathmalc]

How much do people pay for your system?

Technically speaking...I don't know if I would classify what I do as an actual system. Basically, all I do is use BS, whatch tells, and watch patterns within a shoe....which is what I was referring to earlier.

As for paying me... LOLOLOLOL

I have nothing to sell. I offer you people my experiences, nothing more. You can take them or leave them....either way, my session is unaffected. :::Chuckles:::

 

[supercoolmancool]

I'd like to learn more about recognizing patterns in a shoe.

 

[EasyRhino]

cap, interesting first post, three questions for you:

1) A 20 yr old with $6k in 1991 dollars to blow? wtf?

2) When you're doing, whatever it is you do, subconsciously, how much do you think you're observing the cards, and how much do you think you're observing the results?

For instance, if you notice a whole bunch of low-value cards vomited all over the felt, and then raise your bet, then you are indeed doing a basic form of card counting. And in a single or double deck game at a crowded table, you might get some pretty strong signals once in a while.

If, however, you are basing your bets mainly on the results of hands, then I worry that there may be no "there" there in your system.

3) Other dealer "tells" wouldn't happen to include seeing their hole card if they flash it, would they?

When they check for BJ, all of the card and mirror setups I've seen have been arranged so that the dealer will only see an ace if they are checking under a ten, and will only see a ten if checking under an ace. So there's really no tell any more.

 

[captheathmalc]

I'd like to learn more about recognizing patterns in a shoe.

My pattern recognition, is basically a very simplified version of card-counting, without counting the cards...hense my earlier statement of possibly counting them subconciously.

The basis of counting cards is so you can determine when to press your bet (raise your units). All counting systems are pretty much the same in theory, some better depending on whether it is an advanced and expert system. The problem that I encountered, and I'm sure most,if not all, of you have encountered, was that I wanted to win today, and because I failed to expend the necessary time required to perfect the system, I was overwhelmed....and that was a simple-count. So I lost more than I won. However, due to the times that I did win, and the fact that I enjoyed BJ, I kept going. Over a 6 to 7 year period, I slowly began noticing 'quirks' that the dealer made...this is the tells.....but you asked about patterns, so I'll move to that.

Over the same period of time that I began seeing quirks made by dealers, I began applying common-sense theory to my betting strategy, as opposed to just "feeling" like pressing the bet. This common sense is that if a certain number of tens and aces come out during one round, statistics tell us that the next round will contain less. This is much more effective in 2-deck shoes (my preference), but it works, to a lesser degree with a large shoe also.
So... say the last two guys on your left buth double down on 5's...and they both get nothing but low cards, and the rest of the table is at least equal. Then, percentages tell us that the next few cards (at least) will be higher than the average card (6.5).....if this happens a couple rounds in a row...you have a pattern...thus, you press. It is in-principle the same thing as counting, without counting.

BUT, understand this: It is not the same!!! Counting...especially advanced and expert systems, take into account the entire shoe, whereas a pattern doesn't. So.... by itself, it would do you no good, and may even lower your winning percentage. BS is a must, with certain variances depending on the dealer's card; his tells (if any); and the pattern.

If anyone is even considering doing what I do..... I would highly suggest that you fully understand the BS, and the underlying principles...and then...study tells. That is one third of my strategy, so, without it, you may lose as much as 33% of the advantage that I have found.

Personally, If I were to start all over, (being 20 again)....I would take the time to learn a simple count...then I'd master it; use it for a couple months in real-life play (not on-line...it is SOOOOO different), then I'd move onto an advanced strategy, and repeat the process. Then, if I could, I would attempt to learn an expert system. After I did all of this..then I would add-in "tells" and patterns, and add them to my repetoire. Who knows how good I could have been? Right now...I'm satisfied with what I "earn" from the casinos now.

Good-luck.


Heath

 

[halcyon1234]

Well, after reading this thread, I do have to give you credit for not trying to convert or sell anything.

It sounds like you are "intuitively" card counting (for lack of a better term). You are noticing when low cards leave, and therefore there are more high cards left. That is the very basis of card counting. HOWEVER you might run into problems if you are only looking at when a whole bunch of cards leave the shoe at once. What if 5 hands goes by with 1 high card and 0 low cards in each-- and then one hand with 5 low cards happens. If you are only looking at "clumps", you'll assume that the deck is now high-card rich, when in fact it is even-- which is a House Advantage situation!

So far, to be honest, it sounds like you've been extremely lucky. Urr, sorry, proper term: Been experiencing an extended period of positive variance. Winning for years at a time is statistically rare-- but possible.

I hope your positive variance continues unabaited. (Though now that you've talked about it... =) ). Though I would reccomend learning to count with your concious mind. Even a simple high-lo count will help you keep you winning streak going by giving you a "best time" to press your bets.

Or if you truly are a luck-box, liquidate everything you own, put it all on a single number in roulette, win, and retire.

 

[shadroch]

I'm still waiting for an explanation of how a dealer knowing he didn't get a BJ somehow translates into a tell,and what use it can be.

 

[supercoolmancool]

Trust me you guys. This guy is a legit AP playing with a heftly advantage. Reading dealer tells using a conservative tell strategy adds 2.3% to your initial basic strategy expectation.

 

[halcyon1234]

I'm still waiting for an explanation of how a dealer knowing he didn't get a BJ somehow translates into a tell,and what use it can be.

Admittedly, there can be some useful information-- if you can accurately interpret it. Things like Aces and 4s are similar, so if the dealer makes a "I think that's an ace-- oh wait, it isn't", it's a 4. Or faces are easier to see, so a quick peek might indicate paint under there.

And if the dealer leaps up on the table, thrusts their hips at you, and shouts "I've got a 20, you are skey-roooooood!", that might be a tell.

 

[shadroch]

Admittedly, there can be some useful information-- if you can accurately interpret it. Things like Aces and 4s are similar, so if the dealer makes a "I think that's an ace-- oh wait, it isn't", it's a 4. Or faces are easier to see, so a quick peek might indicate paint under there.

And if the dealer leaps up on the table, thrusts their hips at you, and shouts "I've got a 20, you are skey-roooooood!", that might be a tell.

If the dealer knew he had a ten,it might. But with the system almost every casino uses,he doesn't know any more about his hole card than you do.

 

[ScottH]

I'm still waiting for an explanation of how a dealer knowing he didn't get a BJ somehow translates into a tell,and what use it can be.

When the dealer checks for the blackjack, he looks at the card. By looking at his reaction, you can often know the value of the card, or at least if it is high or low.

So let's say the dealer checks under his 10, does not have blackjack, but you can tell it's another 10 by the dealer reaction, you might change your playing strategy. It's like a weaker form of hole-carding, since you're not 100% certain what the card is, but you have a good idea since you know what tells to look for.

There have been books written on the subject. Check them out for more details.

 

[shadroch]

Do you actually play,in real life casinos?
Dealers no longer know what the bottom card is,only what it is not.
That is why when an Ace is up,they hold the card one way,and hold it a different way when a ten is up.All they can see is a spot on the card that tells them it is the card they need for 21 or they see nothing.Very,very,very few casinos have dealers peeking at their card so they know they have a made hand or a stiff.
What may have worked years ago is next to worthless today.I have played in several dozen casinos and have yet to see the dealer peak at his hole card.

 

[ScottH]

Do you actually play,in real life casinos?
Dealers no longer know what the bottom card is,only what it is not.
That is why when an Ace is up,they hold the card one way,and hold it a different way when a ten is up.All they can see is a spot on the card that tells them it is the card they need for 21 or they see nothing.Very,very,very few casinos have dealers peeking at their card so they know they have a made hand or a stiff.
What may have worked years ago is next to worthless today.I have played in several dozen casinos and have yet to see the dealer peak at his hole card.

Yes I play in casinos, and yes I know that basically all games use a peeking device. I never said dealer tells was a big thing, I was just explaining it since you asked about it.

 

[bluewhale]

i just read the entire thread, and i honsetly thing this guy is playing with an advantage. so we know hes doing a "look for low cards and then bet high" strategy. so now this is a VERY basic form of counting. secondly he plays mainly double deck games, again good because a few low cards gives makes relatively large difference to the player edge. also we know he is using a spread, and i think its a ginormous spread from what hes said... cal if you can let me know what your min/max bets are.
finally, for someone to be winning consistantly for 8 years like he has been, are near nothing for a losing player. so just statistically our coveted law of large numbers dictates that he must be playing a winning game.
given these factors, i'm pretty sure he's playing w/ an advantage game.

 

[QFIT]

for someone to be winning consistantly for 8 years like he has been, are near nothing for a losing player. so just statistically our coveted law of large numbers dictates that he must be playing a winning game.
given these factors, i'm pretty sure he's playing w/ an advantage game.

Most gamblers believe they have won over their lifetimes.

 

[mdlbj]

I'm interested in these tells. Do you use the surrender option? When the guy split his 10s was the true count above +5? 54k is a nice take but are you doing it consistently?

 

[person1125]

i'm going to have to lean to agreeing with scotth. when the dealer has 10 up they take a peak in the mirror to see if they have an A under. even if they are only seeing a small point of the letter/number on the card i would think that pro dealers who do this for a living do know what is under. they have to be able to see enough to tell a difference between an A under or 4 under (the tops of these two are the closest together).after dealing and peaking 10's of thousands of hands they would pick up on what they see and what they flip over.

one book i read said to look for dealer tells - they could be anything from how they place their hands to mouth movement etc. IF they do have tells and you can pick up on this it does give you a big advantage. IF they move a certain way with a 5/6 under you could stand on a weak hand and let them bust out instead of you hitting and busting yourself.

 

[captheathmalc]

cap, interesting first post, three questions for you:

1) A 20 yr old with $6k in 1991 dollars to blow? wtf?

2) When you're doing, whatever it is you do, subconsciously, how much do you think you're observing the cards, and how much do you think you're observing the results?

For instance, if you notice a whole bunch of low-value cards vomited all over the felt, and then raise your bet, then you are indeed doing a basic form of card counting. And in a single or double deck game at a crowded table, you might get some pretty strong signals once in a while.

If, however, you are basing your bets mainly on the results of hands, then I worry that there may be no "there" there in your system.

3) Other dealer "tells" wouldn't happen to include seeing their hole card if they flash it, would they?

When they check for BJ, all of the card and mirror setups I've seen have been arranged so that the dealer will only see an ace if they are checking under a ten, and will only see a ten if checking under an ace. So there's really no tell any more.

#1: Although I don't feel obligated to tell you my life story, your question does make sense, so I'll answer this. In October of 1991, my father died...he was a painter and art collector. One of the paintings (which I had no appreciation for at the time), was "Summit of the sierra", by William Keith. Painted in 1537...I believe. I sold the painting (which was worth 50K at the time) for 10K to an art gallery in San Francisco.

#2: Probably both, as I usually can recall what every player at the table had for 2 rounds previous. However, referring to your vomiting of low-cards on the felt....yes, this is the basic idea behind what I do...although I rarely allow one round (by it's self) to effect my next wager...usually it'll be a couple of rounds of low cards. The "results" of hands have no bearing on my wager...however, the "play" before the results do, as they keep me informed as to what a certain player may do in a given situation......which can be a handy piece of information.

#3: You have mis-understood how I read tells. The dealer tell has to do with two things: a)his action; b) the result of his turn. The dealer need not "flash" you his card to give you tells. Perhaps when they have cyborgs deal, then "tells" will be useless. But for now, dealers are human, and they do tell!!!!!!!

 

[captheathmalc]

Well, after reading this thread, I do have to give you credit for not trying to convert or sell anything.

It sounds like you are "intuitively" card counting (for lack of a better term). You are noticing when low cards leave, and therefore there are more high cards left. That is the very basis of card counting. HOWEVER you might run into problems if you are only looking at when a whole bunch of cards leave the shoe at once. What if 5 hands goes by with 1 high card and 0 low cards in each-- and then one hand with 5 low cards happens. If you are only looking at "clumps", you'll assume that the deck is now high-card rich, when in fact it is even-- which is a House Advantage situation!

So far, to be honest, it sounds like you've been extremely lucky. Urr, sorry, proper term: Been experiencing an extended period of positive variance. Winning for years at a time is statistically rare-- but possible.

I hope your positive variance continues unabaited. (Though now that you've talked about it... =) ). Though I would reccomend learning to count with your concious mind. Even a simple high-lo count will help you keep you winning streak going by giving you a "best time" to press your bets.

Or if you truly are a luck-box, liquidate everything you own, put it all on a single number in roulette, win, and retire.

Perhaps you are right, and maybe I've just been really lucky for a long time. Perhaps it's just a mirage.....an extreme case of good fortune. As I have said on two other occassions, I don't "recommend" going my route....go with what you feel comfotable with. As for the "clumps" reference..... It is a tad bit more complicated than that. Also, don't forget that I have expressedly said that I use BS (with variances dependent on the situation), and I also use tells.

As for roulette...no thanks. As for me liquidating everything I own.... :::chuckles:::

But thanx for the wish of luck....that can never hurt.

 

[captheathmalc]

I'm still waiting for an explanation of how a dealer knowing he didn't get a BJ somehow translates into a tell,and what use it can be.

A dealer can see two types of cards: an ace, and a Ten..... Keep this in mind-

Let's assume you are a 30 year old male...just got back from the factory, working a 12-hour shift, and hadn't eaten since morning. Your wife told you she was making chicken for dinner. On the way home, your stomach is growling, and you can't wait to get home and have some chicken. You get home, and find that your wife has been playing pinnochle all day with her friends...nothing has been made for dinner....... No matter how hard you "try" to hide it, or act normal, you "will" have a tell!

Using this example for our line-of-thinking....assume the dealer knows he has a T turn, and a ten is also showing. Player #2 decides to stand on a T6..... this is where "tells" are learned. Just like you were upset about not having any chicken, and had a tell, despite your facade, the dealer also has a "tell", as he knows this player has just made a bad play...and he/she (the dealer) cannot say anything.

Despite what you may think...Human nature shows-up whether you want it to or not. The dealer technically has nothing to gain or lose, regardless of what the player does. Technically. For instance, say the player that just made that error in judgement, also had a $15 tip on the line.....now it becomes even "more" personal to the dealer.....and if there is no tip on the line? Human nature may not force us to "want" people to do well (although that is a trait of many people and can add to the tell), but what human nature does force, is for us to see something done correctly.

If the dealer knew he had a ten,it might. But with the system almost every casino uses,he doesn't know any more about his hole card than you do.

Okay.