Syph said:
Well, I just checked your 2010 BJ poll:
83 members broke even, or made money. Of those, only 33 made over $5K for the whole year.
You have 7,250 members.
:shrug:
Best,
Syph
Hey, Syph
My perception is that only a very small percentage of that 7,250 are active members. But it doesn't matter anyway. In a survey you can only use those who actually participated in the survey.
You can't presume that all who did not complete the survey are losers. Many of them do not even claim to be APs. Some are BS players and some are progression players. Some are craps players, who still like to hang here. Some, maybe the majority, don't come here anymore. Some have several identities on the Forum. In fact, I doubt there are 500 active members on the Forum, but Ken should know.
Of those surveyed, a whopping 83 of 101 made money. That's an 82% success rate!
Of those who reported losses, some of them may not have reached the long run yet. For a recreational player, the long run does not have to occur within a year's time frame. It doesn't have to for a pro player either, although I assume it does over the course of a year, or a 1,000 hours (but I could be wrong). Also, the beginning of a long run does not coincide with the beginning of the year, so it's hard to say whether even someone reporting a loss is really a "loser" for purposes of making pronouncements about the success rate for counters. That applies to winners as well; they may be long run losers who have had a winning streak, which made their game "look" good, at least, for the current year.
For those who keep records, lifetime wins/losses might be a better gauge, if you could be sure members would not lie.
All that being said, I agree that the majority of blackjack players with some actionable knowledge of counting systems and basic strategy do not go the distance to becoming competent players. But of those who stay here on the Forum, I believe the majority are in the winning category, unless they are so undisciplined and pigheaded that they refuse to acknowledge the correctness of the principles espoused here. Just staying here on the Forum has got to improve a player's game. It's many of the ones who come and go who are the losers. They learn a little, but not enough, and leave believing they can play a winning game.
