Jack_Black said:
Let's way the pros and cons here.
spread 1-40 pros
10 more SCORE points added compared to spreading 1-20
uhhh. I think that's it.
1-40 spread cons
10 SCORE points compared to 1-20 spread. That's it?
much heat
must play extremely short sessions to get away with it.
Since sessions have been shortened, productive play time has now been turned into unproductive traveling and scouting time.
less playing = less hands = less profit
longevity has now turned into brevity.
You're very lucky to get away with that kind of spread on a strip property. But you did say that sometimes you will get the checks play call. Big light just went off everywhere. PC is gonna memorize your face, might call surveillance to review your play, you can get banned for a few months, or for life. If it is only a few months, that is still time that couldve been spent playing at that casino making the money instead of looking for a new place to play.
Don't you know about killing the goose that laid golden eggs? You want to be a mosquito bite to a casino, not a mortal stab wound. Keep slow and steady and drain them without noticing. Not hit and run where someone can remember your face and your play.
This is a reason why I feel people think too highly of SCORE (not that it doesn't have it's benefits). I am not going to argue about the "heat" aspect of the game, however, a 1-40 spread is indeed far superior to that of the 1-20, assuming your BR can handle it. When utilizing a 1-40 spread, chances are the player is already not spreading optimally (relative to kelly). This may be a big deal to someone with a smaller bankroll trying to optimize the logarithmic growth of the bankroll, but a player with a very large bankroll at a low limit table may barely care about the BR maximizing strategy, and choose an EV maximizing strategy when playing at a table with low limits.
Sure, there is a difference of 10 SCORE between a 1-20 and 1-40 spread. What about the WR? With a max bet at the same TC, the WR should be approximately double that of the smaller spread. CVCX usually attempts to get your bet spread as close to kelly as possible, so the max bet of the 1-40 spread will probably be later than that of the 1-20 spread, which means that the 1-20 spread will have an even higher c-SCORE than the 1-40. Especially for this kind of comparison, I definately feel that CE would be a much better tool to use. My CVCX is busy running sims right now so I cant quote any numbers, but with a sufficiently high bankroll, you will be able to see that the 1-40 spread will far exceed the value of the 1-20.
However, going back to heat considerations like you said, another thing to consider is the fact that the 1-40 spreader may be betting only a few shoes (and the poster also said he would only play twice at the casino the entire trip). He is limiting himself (the casinos did not tell him to play only 2 shoes), and if he would play even a few shoes or days with a 1-20 than 1-40, he would be making more profit at the casino. With multiple casinos available to play with the same kind of spread, however, this limitation becomes less important, depending on how many days he plans to play at the area. Also, if he doesn't plan on coming back for a while (which length of time depends on the PBs memory), who cares if he gets backed off? SCORE is a very small factor relative to other conditions when playing games.
