Heat and Tolerance

[AR Nick]

Since my last posts on this forum, I've taken all your advice, gotten my act together and pretty much taken care of the mathematics of the game. I've gone to a local casino - the only one within half an hour's drive - a few times since, and results have been favorable. Slowly creeping into the quadruple digits, although I'll admit that, given the difference between my hourly wins and those that my simulator predicted, good variance is as much (more?) to thank for my success than my counting.

Nevertheless, the experience has been extremely valuable. No amount of flash games or "kitchen table play" can truly get you confident with real casino play. Not for me, at least. This does bring me to my question, though, and this time it's not about the mechanics of the game itself as much as it is about the setting.

I've been a pretty conservative counter at the casino. Spreading only 1-3, which, with my indices (50 in all, Zen) and the rules of the game (DD, Reno-esque, good pen), my sim predicted a slow and steady win. Now, I don't mean to sound greedy, but it's no secret to me that increasing the spread would increase my profits as well, and I'd kinda like to look into that. I'm pretty paranoid about heat, though. I don't want to get barred or backed off since I'm not exactly in an area that caters to APs. Plenty of card houses around, sure, but all have atrocious rules, making them unbeatable.

The question is how much would I be able to increase it without attracting any more attention? I did have a dealer comment to me for the first time recently that I "always know what play to make," which, frankly, unsettled me a bit. What frightens me more, though, and please correct me if I'm mistaken in my assumption, is that a wider spread will eventually find it's way to the surveillance guys or any floorman that can count, and they'll take a peek, see how my bet sizes match up, and make their move. I've assumed that index plays are less brazen since to catch you, whoever's checking would have to actually know the indices themselves, or at the very least be using some sophisticated software.

I've heard and read that large casinos (the one I've been going to is amongst the largest in the state) will just flat-out ignore your counting if your spread is modest. I've heard various reports of what that spread is. With total understanding of the fact that there isn't a magical formula that applies to all casinos, I'd appreciate it greatly if y'all would share some of your observations regarding what kind tolerance I can expect.




tl;dr version:

What are large casinos like with regard to tolerating bet spreads? Under what threshold would you be considered too small to waste energy on? Will even being below this threshold but playing frequently attract their ire eventually, or do large casinos just not at all care about little fish?


Thanks in advance, and once again, thank you for last time's sage advice.

 

[tthree]

My council from people who are experts on longevity is heat relates to three factors. Your top bet, your win amounts and your bet spread. Each store is different when it comes to heat. In general better games can be assumed to have more heat. To avoid heat keep your sessions short. Limit your win amounts to what the casino is comfortable with. This does not mean how much you cash at the cage. If your play is enough to attract heat the pit knows what you won. They regularly do accounting of the chips in the game. They assign win amounts to players. A 1 to 6 spread in a good DD game is quite profitable if your count has a high PE. It sounds like they are getting to know you in the pit so you should try to vary the shifts you play in hopes you will get more playing time without the recognition by individuals in the pit. If you feel you can handle a side count research what side counts are most effective as a complement to Zen. For a DD game adding a side count can be very profitable. If you are wearing out your welcome the downtime while you learn the new approach can help to make you less familiar. Of course there is no reason you have to stop while you learn.

 

[SuperD]

I wouldn't think you would have a problem with spreading 1-3. Not sure how bad the other games are in your area, but maybe you can change it up and go to the other casinos and spread more at those casinos, maybe 1-6 or 1-8, and this will give you a break at the one you are currently playing. As tthree stated, make sure you change what shifts you play so they don't get to know you as well. I would think you may want to increase your current spread to 1-4 as that won't usually catch much heat unless you are betting black or purple. I know some people that are limited on number of places they can play have been able to be very friendly to the PCs so when they do actually find out what they are up to they are on pretty good terms so as long as they don't get too aggressive they are pretty much tolerated and allowed to play.

 

[Zerg]

Too conservative

1-3 spread even with strong PE isn't good enough unless the rules are silly good. You are probably currently playing near break even. For double deck you want to be spreading at least 1-8. Assuming you are betting red chips you can probably get away with more. My suggestion would be 1-12 or 1-16. If you are not comfortable with that, start with 1-6 but make sure you check your text messages and hit the bathroom frequently. Don't worry about heat at all until your max bet is > $100. After that be aware, but you still don't have much to worry about until you start playing green. If you happen to be in an area where you know the DD game is a "trap," play a shoe game instead and spread 1-20. You will be fine.

 

[Sharky]

...A 1 to 3 spread in a good DD game is quite profitable if your count has a high PE....

:laugh:

 

[tthree]

:laugh:

Sorry Sharky, I was going by memory. No playable DD in my neck of the woods. I have a strategy for the rare times I will be elsewhere. I looked it up in my archives and it is a 1 to 6 spread. Playing 10 to 60 with my count would earn $65/hour with an RoR of .4% for a trip bankroll of $2000. That is without side counting. I usually double check before posting, but I recently added this to my collection so I felt my memory was trustworthy. I must be getting old.

 

[Zerg]

1 to 6 spread. Playing 10 to 60 with my count would earn $65/hour with an RoR of .4% for a trip bankroll of $2000. That is without side counting.

Seems way off, if it's true Id like to hear more. Id expect a win rate more like $15/hr.

 

[Friendo]

Playing 10 to 60 with my count would earn $65/hour with an RoR of .4% for a trip bankroll of $2000. That is without side counting.

You must be assuming single deck, 95% penetration, & blackjack plays 2:1.

 

[tthree]

1 to 6 spread. Playing 10 to 60 with my count would earn $65/hour with an RoR of .4% for a trip bankroll of $2000. That is without side counting.

Seems way off, if it's true Id like to hear more. Id expect a win rate more like $15/hr.

This was actually a sim result that showed this play all 2 hands. I get told all the time all my extra work to make little gains is not worth it. Apparently in pitch games it is very much worth it. The other thing you all have taught me is to protect my best games from other APs. I will give you a report on how I did with it whenever I get around to a vacation trip. I found out today my achilles tendon has a "complete tear" with a gap of 6 mm. Most likely I will be going under the knife. I am not sure how that will affect prospects of going on a trip.

 

[tthree]

You must be assuming single deck, 95% penetration, & blackjack plays 2:1.

DD, 75% pen with 3 players, play all, 2 hands and 3:2 on a blackjack.

 

[AR Nick]

Thanks all for the responses.

To address the profitability of the strategy, I ran many simulations on my own program, giving it the exact rules and penetration of the game I play along with the count and indices I use, the only difference being I gave it a 1-4 spread which showed about a 2 unit per hour profit with few and less violent swings. The change to a 1-3 spread is something I actually resorted to while playing, without giving it much forethought. I haven't run that spread through my sim yet, but I operated under the assumption that the change wouldn't drop me below the break even point.

The reason I did that also addresses what some of you were talking about regarding red chips and spreading to black. Namely, the min bet of this game is a whopping $25. As SuperD said...

...spread to 1-4 as that won't usually catch much heat unless you are betting black or purple.

The problem being that 4 units brings me into black territory. This might also be a sign of what Zerg was saying about it being a "trap" game. Either that or they figure APs wouldn't place a minimum bet that high.

I know some people that are limited on number of places they can play have been able to be very friendly to the PCs so when they do actually find out what they are up to they are on pretty good terms so as long as they don't get too aggressive they are pretty much tolerated and allowed to play.

I've been doing the same thing, more or less. I tip the dealers well (too much, maybe) and always chat with them, the other casino employees and other friendly players. I don't hassle or bug them or anything like that; just enough to make the conversation pleasant. I also don't engage other players unless they engage me first. I don't want to ruin anyone's count. I basically just try to look pretty unfocused and like I'm there to just have a good time, stupid smile plastered on my face and all. All of the extra activity doesn't really faze me with regard to keeping my count straight, so I consider it "free" cover.

tthree, you mentioned side counts. I was considering doing something like that, but less for my index plays and more for the sidebets. Without making the casino too obvious, there's a ubiquitous sidebet there which seems like it could be beatable by side counting sevens. I'll certainly do some research, as you've suggested, into how(/if) I can incorporate that with Zen, but I think it might provide good cover too. I'm almost always the only one at my table not putting money on the sidebet. I can't help thinking it's a dead giveaway. Admittedly, the return on the sidebet is rather generous, but only by sidebet standards. If I can make it beatable, or at the very least break even-able, that might provide me a good bit of cover. Thoughts?

Finally, the biggest gain for me in this game is the penetration. The cut card gets placed at about 75%-80% (it looks like 80% to me, but I can't help feeling it can't be, hence the range). When there are a few players at the table and the cut card is dealt right at the beginning of a new hand, I can make some pretty obscene index plays and win them. I tend to bet double on the last hand as something of a farewell (or at least that's what they can think) and will win the majority of the time (unless the count isn't far enough away from the zero).

I think I've probably given away a bit much about the casino as it stands already, so if anyone is curious/cares what the sidebet is, shoot me a PM.

Many thanks to all for the responses. You've all been a great help.

 

[SuperD]

AR Nick,

Just to be clear on betting black or purple I mean your initial bet being black. I would think that if you started with $25 you should be able to get away with going up to $100, although you may get a little more heat for hitting that $100 mark it is not over the top, but every store has different tolerance levels. If I could only spread 3 units I would probably not spend much time there even if it has good rules. Try spreading more and see if you get any heat. With that much pen spreading 4 should be pretty good. If you get heat at 4 maybe you should play less there keep the sessions short and spread more like 6 or 8 and get what you can out of them for a 1/2 hour or so and then go to other stores as well. Even though rules may not be as good if they may allow a larger spread which can make up for it.

 

[AR Nick]

Just to be clear on betting black or purple I mean your initial bet being black.

Ah, duly noted. Apologies, I read you wrong the first time.

I think I'll take your advice on spreading higher to see the response. I assume they won't bar or back me off in the first session, so that's actually a pretty good way to test out their tolerance myself, I suppose.

I would have wanted to avoid splitting my time between the other (the farther) casinos, but if that's the best way to not stick out and ensure longevity, I'd agree it's worth the extra time and resources.

Thanks, SuperD.

 

[blackjack avenger]

casinos like losers

Perhaps wait until you are losing to increase spread, or only aggressively spread when losing.

I also agree to play other casinos and even some wonging of shoes in your main casino.

 

[AR Nick]

Wonging's a good idea, but this casino is ahead of the game in that department. Wonging out is an option, naturally, but in pitch games, I'm not sure of how much benefit it would bring compared to its much greater utility in shoe games. Wonging in, as I alluded, is just not allowed. Perhaps that's why the rest of the rules are so good (relatively speaking, of course) in comparison to other casinos in the area or, indeed, other casinos in areas where they're few and far between.

But as you and others have said, I'll put more time into other casinos rather than sitting on this one for too long.

As for playing aggressively when losing, that's a pretty good idea, but I'd have to increase the amount of money I carry on me. Last time I went, there was a fellow sitting at my table who was probably the most obvious AP in the history of ever. His spreads and sit-outs were so mechanical, I could predict his every move before he made it. Even the dealer* was getting visibly upset with him every time he'd try to make up some excuse to not play the rest of the shoe. This guy was spreading about 1-12 ($25 - $300, in other words), and he lost at least a couple of thousand that hour (the dealer was pulling lots of 20s and BJs). I only lost about $600 during that time and quickly won them back and won that much more within the next 3 or 4 hours (yeah, too long, I know). Anyway, I guess what I'm getting at is that even though, as you've said, this strategy would be really good cover, if my chips are already below even, aren't I increasing my risk of ruin by betting big right then, or rather, more so than if I did so while up?


* A quick question regarding that: This was the same dealer who made a comment about my index plays. I was playing with the idea that he might be a counter himself. Is that something that's common amongst dealers? Uncommon? Rare? Totally unheard of? If it is common to some degree, do the casinos use dealers like that to pick out APs, or is that something that's just never part of a dealer's job?

Once again, many thanks for all the answers and advice.

 

[Nynefingers]

This was actually a sim result that showed this play all 2 hands.

I thought you said you didn't have the ability to run sims?

 

[SuperD]

* A quick question regarding that: This was the same dealer who made a comment about my index plays. I was playing with the idea that he might be a counter himself. Is that something that's common amongst dealers? Uncommon? Rare? Totally unheard of? If it is common to some degree, do the casinos use dealers like that to pick out APs, or is that something that's just never part of a dealer's job?

.

Some dealers will keep the count and be able to tell if you are counting or not. Most will have no idea whether your are counting or not. Some may just suspect it because you move your bets, but most do not know how to count. Of the ones that do most will not care, but if they do say something, that most likely means they want more tokes. I try to stay clear of any dealers that know that I am counting. Most of the time it won't lead to anything, but sometimes they may notify the PC what you are up to.

 

[tthree]

I thought you said you didn't have the ability to run sims?

Sim results forwarded to me.

 

[BJgenius007]

DD, 75% pen with 3 players, play all, 2 hands and 3:2 on a blackjack.

I agree that OP is way off with his winning rate. For a typical DD game with 6 to 1 spread, one can only win 1.8 units per hour. If he spread $25 to $150, his winning rate is $45 per hour. If he spread $10 to $60, his winning rate is $18 per hour. Based on the fact that his bankroll is $2,000, my guess is that he spread $10 to $60. Even a genius can't get $65 per hour winning rate with $10 to $60 spread.

 

[tthree]

I agree that OP is way off with his winning rate. For a typical DD game with 6 to 1 spread, one can only win 1.8 units per hour. If he spread $25 to $150, his winning rate is $45 per hour. If he spread $10 to $60, his winning rate is $18 per hour. Based on the fact that his bankroll is $2,000, my guess is that he spread $10 to $60. Even a genius can't get $65 per hour winning rate with $10 to $60 spread.

This was the results of a sim forwarded to me about a high level count. If that is what you expect from a weaker count and you play pitch maybe it is time for an upgrade. PE is where 2/3 of the advantage in pitch games comes from. BC only accounts for 1/3 of your possible advantage. Pick the right count for the right game. The sim didn't even include playing variations for an ace or seven side count. The hourly win rate would be even higher had they been included. Keeping a couple side counts in pitch is easy. You don't need 3 or 4 decks of accuracy to get to the payoff. The increase in PE really ups your hourly. Two thirds of your potential profit is found in your PE in pitch.

Yes, it was a 10 to 60 spread.