Reno rules requires very deep penetration at double deck. For example a Vegas ruled h17 das game with 50% spreading 1-8 with all index number like a computer does not get a 1% advantage. With Reno rules it would be even worse.AR Nick said:Since my last posts on this forum, I've taken all your advice, gotten my act together and pretty much taken care of the mathematics of the game. I've gone to a local casino - the only one within half an hour's drive - a few times since, and results have been favorable. Slowly creeping into the quadruple digits, although I'll admit that, given the difference between my hourly wins and those that my simulator predicted, good variance is as much (more?) to thank for my success than my counting.
Nevertheless, the experience has been extremely valuable. No amount of flash games or "kitchen table play" can truly get you confident with real casino play. Not for me, at least. This does bring me to my question, though, and this time it's not about the mechanics of the game itself as much as it is about the setting.
I've been a pretty conservative counter at the casino. Spreading only 1-3, which, with my indices (50 in all, Zen) and the rules of the game (DD, Reno-esque, good pen), my sim predicted a slow and steady win. Now, I don't mean to sound greedy, but it's no secret to me that increasing the spread would increase my profits as well, and I'd kinda like to look into that. I'm pretty paranoid about heat, though. I don't want to get barred or backed off since I'm not exactly in an area that caters to APs. Plenty of card houses around, sure, but all have atrocious rules, making them unbeatable.
The question is how much would I be able to increase it without attracting any more attention? I did have a dealer comment to me for the first time recently that I "always know what play to make," which, frankly, unsettled me a bit. What frightens me more, though, and please correct me if I'm mistaken in my assumption, is that a wider spread will eventually find it's way to the surveillance guys or any floorman that can count, and they'll take a peek, see how my bet sizes match up, and make their move. I've assumed that index plays are less brazen since to catch you, whoever's checking would have to actually know the indices themselves, or at the very least be using some sophisticated software.
I've heard and read that large casinos (the one I've been going to is amongst the largest in the state) will just flat-out ignore your counting if your spread is modest. I've heard various reports of what that spread is. With total understanding of the fact that there isn't a magical formula that applies to all casinos, I'd appreciate it greatly if y'all would share some of your observations regarding what kind tolerance I can expect.
tl;dr version:
What are large casinos like with regard to tolerating bet spreads? Under what threshold would you be considered too small to waste energy on? Will even being below this threshold but playing frequently attract their ire eventually, or do large casinos just not at all care about little fish?
Thanks in advance, and once again, thank you for last time's sage advice.
Spreading 1-3 any predicted win rate is pie in the sky with a strong side of pure variance...any result you have over the next 5 years will be purely dependent on luck. If the game was 75% pen with s17 das rsa and late surrender then 1-3 at double deck would probably be a strong game.
The game you describe requires a 1-10 spread and pretty deep penetration to not only achieve a decent win rate but also lower your variance enough so that you can get into the long run in a few hundred hours of play rather than a few thousand hours of play (note 1-10 does not automatically mean to increase your top bet, but to lower your bottom bet thus a bigger spread can have much less risk and variance). The problem with bad games is that your spread becomes much more obvious. You just have to be prepared to burn them out and when they back you off they are probably doing you a huge favor.
here is what you should spread for play-all
Single Deck (Good Pen see >40 cards by the shuffle, OK pen see >31 cards before the shuffle)
Good Rules (h17 double any) Good Pen 1-3
Good Rules OK Pen 1-4
Bad Rules (h17 d10) Good Pen 1-4
Bad Rules OK Pen 1-5
Double Deck
Good Rules (s17 ds) >70% pen 1-5
OK Rules (h17 ds) >70% pen 1-6
Bad Rules (h17 d9) >70% pen 1-8
Good Rules <70% >60% 1-6
OK Rules <70% >60% 1-8
Bad Rules <70% >60% 1-12
Good Rules <60% 1-8
OK Rules <60% >50% 1-10
Bad Rules <60% DO NOT PLAY
Six Deck and Eight Deck Fresh Shoe with Table Exit at -1.5 True Count
Great Rules (s17 ds ls rsa)1-12 (only play if <1.8 decks cutoff)
OK Rules (h17 ds ls) 1-16 (only play if <1.8 decks cutoff)
Bad Rules (s17 ds) 1-20 only play if <1.5 decks cutoff
Very Bad Rules (h17 ds) 1-20 and only play if <1.2 deck cutoff