Hit my first Royal Flush ever!!!

[RJT]

First, if you're going to play AP VP you'll never be on a $5 machine. At least I've never seen one that was over 100% (not even close). You'll almost always be playing quarters @$1.25 a push or dollars @$5 a push.
My only point here is that VP can be played at an advantage if the games are carefully selected. Yes, many times it's a wild ride between "royals" because of the differing volatility of the many vp games out there.
I'm thinking the sims will show a 1% profit if nothing but +1% games are played (over the long run with "perfect play")
Am I wrong?

BillyC1

Long run is long run - as Sonny kindly emphasized, the space inbetween the short run and the long run is far bigger with VP. And if you are playing with a 1% advantage at $1.25/hand - given i'm going to be really optomistic and assume 600 hands of perfect strategy an hour - your going to be earning $7.50/hour. Not really worth the variance. Simply put, at that rate of earning your earnings are going to be background noise compared to the variance for a very long time. This is one point where online play diverges drastically from offline - automation allows a number of hands with perfect strategy that simply isn't possible offline.

RJT.

 

[Billy C1]

Long run is long run - as Sonny kindly emphasized, the space inbetween the short run and the long run is far bigger with VP. And if you are playing with a 1% advantage at $1.25/hand - given i'm going to be really optomistic and assume 600 hands of perfect strategy an hour - your going to be earning $7.50/hour. Not really worth the variance. Simply put, at that rate of earning your earnings are going to be background noise compared to the variance for a very long time. This is one point where online play diverges drastically from offline - automation allows a number of hands with perfect strategy that simply isn't possible offline.

RJT.

I can and do appreciate those things. So if you can play a $5 a push game at slightly over 103% (rare, but I've done it) you make $100/hour.
The variance and volatility remain the same, I know.
As I've freely admitted, my strong defense of vp results from my addiction to it. I've never said you could get rich playing AP VP, only that some profit is attainable.
Couple that with the fact that I enjoy it a lot and it's an easy choice for me when BJ burnout happens.
I appreciate your input as well as others.

BillyC1

 

[blackjack avenger]

Never Say Never

First, if you're going to play AP VP you'll never be on a $5 machine. At least I've never seen one that was over 100% (not even close). You'll almost always be playing quarters @$1.25 a push or dollars @$5 a push.
My only point here is that VP can be played at an advantage if the games are carefully selected. Yes, many times it's a wild ride between "royals" because of the differing volatility of the many vp games out there.
I'm thinking the sims will show a 1% profit if nothing but +1% games are played (over the long run with "perfect play")
Am I wrong?

BillyC1

Never be on a $5 machine?
In general yes I agree with you

 

[RJT]

I can and do appreciate those things. So if you can play a $5 a push game at slightly over 103% (rare, but I've done it) you make $100/hour.
The variance and volatility remain the same, I know.
As I've freely admitted, my strong defense of vp results from my addiction to it. I've never said you could get rich playing AP VP, only that some profit is attainable.
Couple that with the fact that I enjoy it a lot and it's an easy choice for me when BJ burnout happens.
I appreciate your input as well as others.

BillyC1

Billy - i have no issue what so ever with you enjoying playing VP and by the sounds of things you know enough to know where and when to play and have a bankroll that can handle the swings - you're one of the lucky ones if this is the case.
I'm just trying to highlight to other posters that VP play - even with an advantage - is vastly different to counting and you really need to very carefully consider what you are doing before engaging with it. I ended up nearly destroying my roll when i started due to not giving enough respect to the variance that VP creates.

RJT.

 

[Billy C1]

Thanks RJT, I've enjoyed the banter with you and have gained some knowledge from your posts!-----and to blackjack avenger-----the reason you won't play $5 machines ($25 a push) is because you'll never see one that can be played at an "advantage". At least, that's what I've experienced.

BillyC1

 

[Machinist]

Rjt

Ah yes a true VP player.... the key to knowing that is the word,,, FLUXUATION... only used by machine APs....
How about dollar 5 play RJT... 12 man team .... what might the fluxuation be on that? Say 9/6 JOB with some NSU s thrown in for fun!!! LOL Just a small test RJT
Very interesting conversation everybody....
Yes VP fluxuation will take the wind out of your sail if not properly OVERLY bankrolled LOL
Good reading and all are right on in the opinions...
5$ VP it can be found in stores ... but few and far inbetween....

Machinist

 

[RJT]

Ah yes a true VP player.... the key to knowing that is the word,,, FLUXUATION... only used by machine APs....
How about dollar 5 play RJT... 12 man team .... what might the fluxuation be on that? Say 9/6 JOB with some NSU s thrown in for fun!!! LOL Just a small test RJT
Very interesting conversation everybody....
Yes VP fluxuation will take the wind out of your sail if not properly OVERLY bankrolled LOL
Good reading and all are right on in the opinions...
5$ VP it can be found in stores ... but few and far inbetween....

Machinist

Now here's a man i've heard some interesting things about. I've been meaning to pick you brain about machine play for some time.....
$5 coin - with a 12 man team on 9/6 JoB - where's the advantage? Both 9/6 JoB and NSU are negative games. The variance is going to be large enough that you would require a high 6 to 7 figure bank, but if the stories i've heard regarding yourself are true, i wouldn't put it past you. At this point i've got to assume you are looking at something other than the machine itself to make it positive? Care to expand? Privately?

RJT.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Hmmmmm

Thanks RJT, I've enjoyed the banter with you and have gained some knowledge from your posts!-----and to blackjack avenger-----the reason you won't play $5 machines ($25 a push) is because you'll never see one that can be played at an "advantage". At least, that's what I've experienced.

BillyC1

The denomination should not determine if the game is positive or not. Often, the better VP games have the highest denomination.

Some VP machines are good and some are bad.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Another Look at Denomination of Play & Success

An Example Game:
50,000 royal cycle
250,000 to 500,000 hands long run
Player speed 500 hands an hr

Game is offered at
$5 a bet
$25 a bet

Player 1 plays both games an equal amount
Player 2 plays exclusively the bigger game
Both play an = amount of time

For the same size bankroll

Player 2 has a higher EV
Player 2 has a shorter long run
Player 2 has a higher probability of success

When player 1 is playing the smaller game he is hurting his long run chance of success because he is not putting in the time needed for the long run on the larger game.

Now, if only the lower denomination game is available then playing would be better then not playing.

As long as the games are positive expectation as a general statement it's better to play different games with the same denomination vs the same game at different denominations, not considering potential errors of playing multiple games.

VP or player:joker::whip:

 

[KenSmith]

Profitable $5 machines and up certainly exist when you take into account the other aspects like promos and cashback. As for speed, I play 1000 hands an hour minimum unless the machines are intentionally slowed. On the rare machines found set to IGT's fastest possible speed, I've clocked 1500 hands in an hour playing Jacks, and can sustain 1300 for hours at a time.

At those speeds, you might think I make a lot of mistakes. Practice with software is essential, and my error rate is very low. I estimate around 1 hand in 1000 is a mistake on the easier games, and the mistakes are often very minor. (The tougher games I play more slowly of course because errors are an important issue.)

I have no idea how many hands of VP I've personally played, but I would guess it's somewhere around 4 million.

As others indicate, bankroll requirements are easy to underestimate. For the interested, I recommend using Dunbar's Video Poker Risk Analyzer, an Excel spreadsheet product that uses the risk of ruin formulas established by Evgeny Sorokin.

See also http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

 

[Billy C1]

The denomination should not determine if the game is positive or not. Often, the better VP games have the highest denomination.

Some VP machines are good and some are bad.

Yes, the pay tables are usually the same regardless of denomination but I've not seen "progressive" $5 vp and many times it takes a progressive jackpot to swing games into positive territory. I haven't been everyplace. Maybe there are $5 progressives that I'm not aware of.
As Ken indicates, promos and card points cashback, as well as what I call "worked comps" factor in, too.

BillyC1

 

[RJT]

Profitable $5 machines and up certainly exist when you take into account the other aspects like promos and cashback. As for speed, I play 1000 hands an hour minimum unless the machines are intentionally slowed. On the rare machines found set to IGT's fastest possible speed, I've clocked 1500 hands in an hour playing Jacks, and can sustain 1300 for hours at a time.

Well i've been talking out my arse then. Ken that is some lightning fast play you are doing their and if that is standard for an offline normal casino JoB machine then i've been totally underestimating the number of hands it is possible to play in any give time period. Online i'm hitting 6-700 hands an hour with a bot, and that's almost precognative in the speed it assess hands.

RJT.

 

[fubster]

I really want to highlight this little gem buried deep inside that ego trip. It's a very important concept to unerstand in this case. The "time between meals" plays an important role in the bankroll requirements for these games. Even if you find two games with equal EV and SD, the skewness of VP is more likely to drain your bankroll to the point of no return. Even though the EV and SD are the same, the RoR and bankroll requirements can be diffferent.

As a wise man once wrote, "Variance Isn't Everything."

-Sonny-

I like this guy.

 

[Machinist]

Now here's a man i've heard some interesting things about. I've been meaning to pick you brain about machine play for some time.....
$5 coin - with a 12 man team on 9/6 JoB - where's the advantage? Both 9/6 JoB and NSU are negative games. The variance is going to be large enough that you would require a high 6 to 7 figure bank, but if the stories i've heard regarding yourself are true, i wouldn't put it past you. At this point i've got to assume you are looking at something other than the machine itself to make it positive? Care to expand? Privately?

RJT.

Not 5$ 5play....yikes!!!!!!!!!! lol just 1$ 5 play... 12 machines eeehh only 30G either way Not to bad .... but eye opening the first time lol...
The advantage was a promo obviously. Real paper tickets in a drum. Estimate tickets in drum , Play till you have half of the tickets, win 3G a day and on saturday win the T-bird. Sunday sell T-bird to dealer for 55G. Repeat for 6 weeks. Only snag, another team in competition.
Dammit only got 3 T-birds and half the cash...They got the other half cash and the other 3 T-birds:flame
The key to the promo.... Must be present to Win.... if not will redraw in 10 mins.....
Talking promos, i believe the time is upon us to find some nice promos with the down turn in the economy... Competition among the stores. Some where a store will "step on their dick" ....
Alot harder now with all this electronic tickets and drawings now...
Most of the cars are crap , not much value time wise..
Ken Smith you are a sick person if you can play that many hands per hour. I wonder how many hours you could do that for in a day, after day, after horrible day.:laugh::laugh: I find after an hour anymore my mind tends to wander...
I will keep you in mind if i am in need of some extra speed!!!!
RJT i will PM you when i get a chance. I am in the middle of some stuff right now... Kind of like a tutoring session for a couple of BJ APers that thought i was a whack job at the last Bash!!!!:whip:
ALso RJT............ technically if you uses bots...........have YOU really played all those hands of VP yourself????????????? :laugh:

Take care all... I have to wake up a student

Machinist

 

[Billy C1]

Can be brutal

I can certainly relate to the "time between meals" line while playing video poker by RJT (figuratively). Many times while playing a good + game I've not only missed meals but also shows, nights of sleep and other things.
When I've ended up being the fortunate one that hit the big "progressive" in the middle of the night, it's all seemed worth it. When not, I've wondered why the Hell did I subject myself to this. It can't be healthy.
When the game gets lucrative enough for the "teams" to move in, you have to keep your seat or you'll never get back in.

BillyC1

 

[RJT]

ALso RJT............ technically if you uses bots...........have YOU really played all those hands of VP yourself?????????????

Machinist

For the purposes of this discussion i think i have yeh - it's my money the bots playing with and it's my bank that experiences the variance - as it was specifically the variance that we were discussing, few people have experienced swings like i've seen or seen the stretch to the long run in the way i have. Hitting the advantages i do these days simply wouldn't be possible without robotic assistance.
I will look forward to your PM when you get the chance. Good luck with your students.

RJT.

 

[Machinist]

I can certainly relate to the "time between meals" line while playing video poker by RJT (figuratively). Many times while playing a good + game I've not only missed meals but also shows, nights of sleep and other things.
When I've ended up being the fortunate one that hit the big "progressive" in the middle of the night, it's all seemed worth it. When not, I've wondered why the Hell did I subject myself to this. It can't be healthy.
When the game gets lucrative enough for the "teams" to move in, you have to keep your seat or you'll never get back in.

BillyC1

:laugh::laugh::laugh: God the time lost on machines sucks for sure....It's horrible...if i had some words of wisdom for wanna be VP players....Run , run away far, far away!!!!!!! :sad:
It can be alot of fun for the first year or so. But you become a slave to the machines...Really fun if you can get a couple people involved, that you enjoy being with.
Women love video poker, some are just plain sick sick sick, but good at it.
Problem is when the play is over with and their is no +ev, they still want to play!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Billy , them bstrds locking you out from playing ???? LOL I hate them teams..Luckily not to many around anymore, i could be wrong tho.
I dont move around like i used to..

Machinist

Machinist

 

[sagefr0g]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Machinist View Post
ALso RJT............ technically if you uses bots...........have YOU really played all those hands of VP yourself?????????????

Machinist

For the purposes of this discussion i think i have yeh - it's my money the bots playing with and it's my bank that experiences the variance - as it was specifically the variance that we were discussing, few people have experienced swings like i've seen or seen the stretch to the long run in the way i have. Hitting the advantages i do these days simply wouldn't be possible without robotic assistance.

the way i look at this is say if a royal flush is expected to present within the range of forty thousand hands played then well it doesn't matter who pushes the button, sort of thing. like say forty thousand machines are lined up and forty thousand gal's push the button (using proper strategy) on each of those machines at the same time. chances are one of them will get the royal flush.
same really difference if say one person bangs away at one machine for forty thousand hands.

:sleep:

 

[Machinist]

Mr frog , I'm gonna make you cry!!! I'm going to make you so sick of VP!!!!
You will think twice about even posting anything about VP. It will make you want to vomit even thinking about VP.. I am going to make you play 40,000 stinking hands so you know what that feels like!!!! lol Oh yea and then we r gonna play another 40,000 hands.... Then next week another 50 hours trying to get in that forty ....
Variance is used so much in the BJ world.. BJ variance is a pittance compared to VIDEO POKER FLUXUATION . LOL oh yeah..... And you though your first winning BJ session was a high.....
Just wait for that first Royal Flush, when you are down 6 grand and the progressive is 6500....You will be estatic, one to get your money back ..... and two you are soooooo very tired!!!! YOu get to go home and sleep... lol


Machinist

 

[RJT]

Just wait for that first Royal Flush, when you are down 6 grand and the progressive is 6500....You will be estatic, one to get your money back ..... and two you are soooooo very tired!!!! YOu get to go home and sleep... lol


Machinist

Oh i know that feeling - try playing the equivalent of approx 200k hands of JoB without a RF and see how you handle that session..... Then take the other sessions where you hit 5 (yes 5!!) RF's in one day - or hit 2 RF's in the space of 20 hands. I've seen all of these things - you eventually get used to the highs and lows, but if you're not properly bankrolled to handle these situations you're going to cut you life short with the stress. Blackjack is tame in comparison.
I also know how those long sessions feel - when a promotion is only on for a few days and i sit staring at the screen for 18-20 hours a day desperately trying to milk it dry, with the gf staring at another screen playing, both of us totally wiped out by the end. And with these games a positive result is far from assured.

RJT.