I can answer any clumping question here.
- Thread starter BJgenius007
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Secretarriat
Member
Obviously, BJgenius007, took a very methodological approach to a simple blackjack problem that somehow has become a religious thing to some. Clumped cards are so obvious at times that any ploppy can see it. If you can't see it, maybe the count should tell you something. If you find yourself with TC4+ counts 10%-20% of the time, then you should reflect on the matter and try to understand what's going on. I'll wait for the 3rd answer from 007 before commenting more but he's been through a specific process and he's giving detailed answers and so did Kewjl earlier. Regardless of anyone's conclusions, that deserves respect.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I don't know what approach BJGenius has used to look into it, but when I became convinced of this capability, I tracked hundreds of shoes of play.
I then purchased the exact model machine I had concerns about, not a knockoff, but a machine used a casino in Asia that had closed, privately, on a website inaccessible here in the U.S. I spent 5 figures for the machine and several thousand more to get it into the United States via a friend in Canada, because you can not easily get these machines into the country. They are very protected. I then paid a programmer to program the machine. It took him about 3 minutes. So I KNOW what these machines are capable of. I am not guessing or speculating.
Now the only part that is in any question is whether casinos would engage in this. My experience and I play a lot of casinos is not many so far. I have encountered 2 that I am positive of and possible 1-2 more. So it is not widespread. I would like to keep it that way.
Now anyone can say whatever they want about me. I am not selling anything, or trying to profit off anything. I am simply telling players to be aware. Be vigilant. No different that I would warn players playing handheld games to be vigilant of a dealer dealing seconds.
I then purchased the exact model machine I had concerns about, not a knockoff, but a machine used a casino in Asia that had closed, privately, on a website inaccessible here in the U.S. I spent 5 figures for the machine and several thousand more to get it into the United States via a friend in Canada, because you can not easily get these machines into the country. They are very protected. I then paid a programmer to program the machine. It took him about 3 minutes. So I KNOW what these machines are capable of. I am not guessing or speculating.
Now the only part that is in any question is whether casinos would engage in this. My experience and I play a lot of casinos is not many so far. I have encountered 2 that I am positive of and possible 1-2 more. So it is not widespread. I would like to keep it that way.
Now anyone can say whatever they want about me. I am not selling anything, or trying to profit off anything. I am simply telling players to be aware. Be vigilant. No different that I would warn players playing handheld games to be vigilant of a dealer dealing seconds.
This is a stupid, non-productive wasteful use of bandwidth. There is no room for discussion or middle ground. Serious players know that all of this is horseshit. Those who see clumps and patterns in tea leaves think that randomness can't be THAT random.
Ask someone to manufacture a list of alleged heads and tails of a series of coin flips, and a computer can tell 100 times out of 100 which is a real series of flips and which has been manufactured by an individual. Why? Because the individual NEVER puts in streaks of one or the other that are long enough!
Neither side is going to convince the other of anything. So, if you want to continue the insults, have at it. But no one is learning anything about blackjack in this thread.
Don
Ask someone to manufacture a list of alleged heads and tails of a series of coin flips, and a computer can tell 100 times out of 100 which is a real series of flips and which has been manufactured by an individual. Why? Because the individual NEVER puts in streaks of one or the other that are long enough!
Neither side is going to convince the other of anything. So, if you want to continue the insults, have at it. But no one is learning anything about blackjack in this thread.
Don
Secretarriat
Member
Don I totally agree with you that insults are useless and counterproductive but unfortunately we see that over and over on forums. That is beyond me. I don’t really care who proves what. I’m just looking for an intelligent discussion on the subject and so far we've had a few useful contributions here.
ASMs
I don’t know if ASMs do arrange cards and how often they would do it, but I don’t see why they could not. If Edward Thorpe and Claude Shannon could beat roulette with the first portable computer in the 1960s, the modern ASMs can certainly do some tricky stuff in 2022.
CV Software Bias
Actually, Norm’s fabulous CV Software can do crazy stuff if you set up the speed/bias at the random extreme level. I know that Norm designed that to practice counting with very high numbers but with that set-up, the game is quite different with extreme TCs that call for max bets 20% of the time.
My experience is that this “virtual” CV game just cannot be beaten with basic strategy or traditional betting ramps. Everyone’s welcome to try it. After 5 000 CV hands I am down 1000 units which is ridiculous with a 1-12 spread. Another approach is needed.
Shack
Coming back to ASMs, if Shack wanted to be the face of the complaint to the commission a few years ago against a specific machine, as Kewjl said, it would be nice to hear a confirmation (or a disclaimer) from him. That would certainly bring some meat on the table instead of fanatic religious beliefs.
Hooter's 2017
As far as real world experience I can refer to the Hooter’s casino in Vegas since it doesn’t not exist anymore. Five years ago, they would bring new cards (6-deck), no wash, basic hand shuffle and deal. The clumping was obvious from the beginning and it was clearly manufactured. It was not the fruit of my imagination. That requires a different approach. Maybe some members who played at the Hoots could confirm what I say. That “structure” tended to last for hours every day. Again, how to beat it is another story.
ASMs
I don’t know if ASMs do arrange cards and how often they would do it, but I don’t see why they could not. If Edward Thorpe and Claude Shannon could beat roulette with the first portable computer in the 1960s, the modern ASMs can certainly do some tricky stuff in 2022.
CV Software Bias
Actually, Norm’s fabulous CV Software can do crazy stuff if you set up the speed/bias at the random extreme level. I know that Norm designed that to practice counting with very high numbers but with that set-up, the game is quite different with extreme TCs that call for max bets 20% of the time.
My experience is that this “virtual” CV game just cannot be beaten with basic strategy or traditional betting ramps. Everyone’s welcome to try it. After 5 000 CV hands I am down 1000 units which is ridiculous with a 1-12 spread. Another approach is needed.
Shack
Coming back to ASMs, if Shack wanted to be the face of the complaint to the commission a few years ago against a specific machine, as Kewjl said, it would be nice to hear a confirmation (or a disclaimer) from him. That would certainly bring some meat on the table instead of fanatic religious beliefs.
Hooter's 2017
As far as real world experience I can refer to the Hooter’s casino in Vegas since it doesn’t not exist anymore. Five years ago, they would bring new cards (6-deck), no wash, basic hand shuffle and deal. The clumping was obvious from the beginning and it was clearly manufactured. It was not the fruit of my imagination. That requires a different approach. Maybe some members who played at the Hoots could confirm what I say. That “structure” tended to last for hours every day. Again, how to beat it is another story.
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The G Man
Well-Known Member
Hooter's 2017
Casino de Montreal did the exact same thing when they opened back in 1994. Anyone with half a brain can beat this shuffle. HOWEVER, the "structure" doesn't last "for hours" like you mention. At the third shuffle you can still "see patterns where none exist" and it's this kind of optimistic thinking that kills the not so good shuffle trackers. This has nothing to do with "crooked" ASM.
Casino de Montreal did the exact same thing when they opened back in 1994. Anyone with half a brain can beat this shuffle. HOWEVER, the "structure" doesn't last "for hours" like you mention. At the third shuffle you can still "see patterns where none exist" and it's this kind of optimistic thinking that kills the not so good shuffle trackers. This has nothing to do with "crooked" ASM.
Secretarriat
Member
Hey G Man. Glad we can talk and agree at least on the fact that the first shoe can be “arranged” somehow. How long does that “structure” last is another thing. Three shoes, tens, more? BJGenius mentioned that dealer manipulations during shuffles could maintain clumping. I give him the benefit of the doubt (you may not) since he studied the phenomenon. No sense arguing over that.The G Man said:
I just wanted to add that at Hooters, the “cards out of the box structure” was less obvious after a few shoes like you said. Yet I could see some patterns long after the first shoe. Were they “imaginary” nonexistent patterns? Well, let’s not get there.
Obvisously the potential “crooked” ASM topic is a different thing.
Now a question. Let’s say you are playing ASM and you find yourself in a game with frequent extremely positive TCs as well as frequent extremely negative TCs. How do you react? Shuffle tracking is not an option anymore. That doesn’t necessarily mean the ASM is rigged, but this is a specific situation in which one may get killed when betting up in a constantly rising count.
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AchillesBlackjack
Well-Known Member
So I’m not nearly as experienced AP probably as anyone in this forum. But one thing I can confirm as former dealer and who’s wife is an operations manager of a casino. That no dealer in any casino I’ve interacted with has “manipulated” the cards purposely. No casino would risk asking employee of this. It’s way too scandalous. I’ve had give money to players hours after dealing cause surveillance went back recorded the footage and found me making an error. Why would casino risks their gaming license? And heavy fines? Reputation ruined? As far with ASM, when I was dealing we had shuffle master. Most casinos still use this same model today. Mind you, I finished dealing in early 2019. What I can confirm with ASM, is that even if you pull 1 card out of the shoe. Say king of hearts for example. The red light will flash once shuffle is completed and flash the code. And will show image of exactly what card is missing. For the poker shuffle machines, it works like Ferris wheel, mixing the cards. I know this because I’ve had pull one apart with my supervisor cause they seize up from all dust collected. A shuffle master too. So while I do believe it’s possible and definitely have the ability to “clump” the cards. I highly doubt any casino would implement this in 2022. One law suit for something like this would make casino come crashing down or very least distrusted among locals. Which speaks to my other question, if everyone knows about this and can prove Why won’t they launch a suit? You’ll make more money if you win that suit than you ever would counting cards. As for CV, if I’m reading this right…your down after 5000 rounds? Assuming you played 100 rounds per hour(very easy on cv) that’s only like 50 hours. Very small sample. Of course you can’t beat CV with only basic strategy?!?! I’m confused by that.Secretarriat said:
Secretarriat
Member
To Achilles: As far as manipulating the cards I was referrig to BJGenius quote earlier: He said: "They tilted the cards towards them while shuffling so the dealer can see the ranks of the cards. Then randomly move three or four cards to top or bottom. on shuffle But it is actually not a random act but try to clump cards."
I don't know, I am not a legal expert, but I don't think you could sue the casinos for that.
Regarding CV with the speed/bias set at random extreme bias, try it yourself. Losing 1000 units in 5000 hands is over -3SD. I discussed the situation with Norm and as I said, he made that option available to practice counting with extreme numbers. It's not a matter of short-term variance. I don't want to misquote him but he told me that in that situation "we should lose heavily" and added that it's not "real world" situation.
Now, if you want to practice with extremely high counts, this CV option is absolutely awesome and I am not talking just straight counting HiLo or whatever count you use. I am talking Hilo with three side counts. I also can use the Tarzan count (three column count with ace side count). That type of counting at extreme levels is pretty much the ultimate exercise of the mind for counting cards. Try the feature and you'll find out that beating that "biased" game of constant extreme counts is nearly impossible with traditional betting ramps. A different approach is needed.
I don't know, I am not a legal expert, but I don't think you could sue the casinos for that.
Regarding CV with the speed/bias set at random extreme bias, try it yourself. Losing 1000 units in 5000 hands is over -3SD. I discussed the situation with Norm and as I said, he made that option available to practice counting with extreme numbers. It's not a matter of short-term variance. I don't want to misquote him but he told me that in that situation "we should lose heavily" and added that it's not "real world" situation.
Now, if you want to practice with extremely high counts, this CV option is absolutely awesome and I am not talking just straight counting HiLo or whatever count you use. I am talking Hilo with three side counts. I also can use the Tarzan count (three column count with ace side count). That type of counting at extreme levels is pretty much the ultimate exercise of the mind for counting cards. Try the feature and you'll find out that beating that "biased" game of constant extreme counts is nearly impossible with traditional betting ramps. A different approach is needed.
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AchillesBlackjack
Well-Known Member
First off, the dealer tilting the cards towards him during shuffle to manipulate the cards. LOL. In gaming school, you are taught to do that. It actually creates a smoother riffle. Not as hard on the cards. Like I said before, no dealer would be asked to manipulate the cards. It’s way too risky.Secretarriat said:
At my casino we go through 3 laces we call it. Break 4 decks on each side, left and right hand grab some cards and riffle in the middle. Then when out of cards. You split it up 4 decks again. And repeat 3 times. On the final riffle, you don’t push all the cards into forum(squared), but like halfway in looks like. You then need permission “shuffle check” from supervisor to clear. The lace is not allowed to have more than 1 chip thick of clearance between the cards. Or it wasn’t shuffled correctly. This dealer manipulating the cards is total non sense.as far as CV, I do set bias on extreme for positive counts. Mainly to practice my deviations. No sense in waiting for hours on end to learn how execute properly. And my results differ from yours. I’m up money.
I’m only actually just losing in the real casino :”( .
AchillesBlackjack
Well-Known Member
If you have this machine. Can you make it shuffle and fan the cards out for us? Make a video. Manipulate the cards in the manner you want.KewlJ said:
Secretarriat
Member
AchillesBlackjack said:First off, the dealer tilting the cards towards him during shuffle to manipulate the cards. LOL. In gaming school, you are taught to do that. It actually creates a smoother riffle. Not as hard on the cards. Like I said before, no dealer would be asked to manipulate the cards. It’s way too risky.
as far as CV, I do set bias on extreme for positive counts. Mainly to practice my deviations. No sense in waiting for hours on end to learn how execute properly. And my results differ from yours. I’m up money.
I’m only actually just losing in the real casino :”( .
AchillesBlackjack
Well-Known Member
Just for everyone’s curiosity on the ASM, there is “sort” mode. When the cards come out their all sorted .aces with aces, kings with kings, like if you bought brand new deck. You do this at end of shift. Fan it out for cameras .then you must count down all the cards make sure every card is there. Then supervisor comes by with bag, you must put cards in the bag. Sign the bag, confirming everything is ok and put down your badge number. Like I said, technically I guess the cards can be “clumped”. There is no setting of “beast mode”... But no casino would risk it. This would be cheating. It’s illegal by law. The mafia no longer controls the casinos. It’s all greedy corporate assholes these days. Even if they are clumped, the setting to beat AP would need be perfect. What the dealer gets all the BJs? You will get stiff hands? Players coming in and out. Would wrench that plan. So I’m not sure where this theory comes from. Not to mention you must remember the shuffle machine/surveillance have no idea where you are going cut the shoe with cut card. Where would this magical house advantage clump be? After you cut. Dealer moves the cards. Then does their final cut at back of shoe. For us it was said to be deck to 2 decks(I always cut back 1 deck since I love y’all <3).
The G Man
Well-Known Member
Answer.Secretarriat said:
Play it like any other shuffle. Count rises, bet up. Why not? Are you telling us that EVERY HIGH COUNT IS MADE TO LEAVE THE BIG CARDS BEHIND THE CUT CARD? Count goes south, leave the table!
The best suggestion I heard so far was made by AchillesBlackjack: "If you have this machine. Can you make it shuffle and fan the cards out for us? Make a video. Manipulate the cards in the manner you want. "
Secretarriat
Member
I'll let Achilles discuss the shuffling procedures with BJGenius. I juste quoted him.
I also quoted Norm on "we should lose heavily" in this situation (Random extreme bias.)
The normal CV game is easy to beat.
Do your thing Achilles but if you may, "executing properly" is everything...in everything!
I also quoted Norm on "we should lose heavily" in this situation (Random extreme bias.)
The normal CV game is easy to beat.
Do your thing Achilles but if you may, "executing properly" is everything...in everything!
Secretarriat
Member
G Man, I thought I wrote "That doesn’t necessarily mean the ASM is rigged". BJGenius said it earlier. the big cards could be anywhere. They are not intentionally hidden behind the cut card by the casino. As long as the players cut the cards, the casino can't do that. Nobody said anything like this here. Why do you say that?The G Man said:
Now why not bet up if count rises? Well we are talking about a very specific situation here. It's not as if it looks like it's the shoe of the day.
if RC goes +20,+25, +30 every other shoe (or most of them) odds are you are getting killed with max bets because the high cards do not come out.
The wong-out proposition at strong negative counts is obviously correct although it's possible to survive with adequate card-play.
Like you, I would like to see videos from Kjewjl if he has the machine but if it's been "tricked" it would probably look like CV with the Bias set at random extreme levels. Then you'd frequently see RCs between +40 and -40.