Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
KewlJ said:
Hey BJG! Any updates on your observations?BJgenius007 said:
I can answer any clumping question here.
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BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
I became Spidierman with great 6th sense. Actually I played more ASM than hand-shuffled recently. After Covid 19 reopening, the close-by casino began to add face cards and remove aces from 6D decks. Nothing much. Just remove four aces and add small amount of face cards from six deck. Sometimes four. Sometimes eight. Just enough to make TC always negative. For ASM, all cards are there. Once I accept the fact that there are a clump of aces, there is a clump of face cards and there is a clump of small cards at ASM table, I can play accordingly because each clump will appear only once in shoe. And the likelihood for clumped shoe is 75% for the weekend and only 25% for the weekdays. So I just play more on weekdays.Nightshifter said:
If in early shoe, I encountered a first clump, I just assume I will encounter the other two clumps in late of the shoe and reduced my spread from 10 to 1 to like 4 to 1 for the remaining of the shoe. Reducing bet spread is a life saver for me. (Another life saver for me is that I only sit at the third base and the table must be full or almost full. And my play decision is based on the clump pattern, not TC when I can see clearly see everybody's two cards are either all smalls, or all faces, or a lot of aces in that round. So as the third base player, I can make the best decision as a clump is in progress. Normally I don't care where I sit at hand-shuffled table. But I almost always win when I play ASM table as a third base player at a full table. Full table is my requirement to play. I found if I played with only two or three persons and cannot see the clumping pattern, my result is negative in that condition. So I learned to avoid it now.)
I now show positive result at ASM tables even half of times I have 4 to 1 spread, compared to old days I trust casinos don't cheat and always spread 10 to 1 according to TC, then had negative ev for years from 2014 to 2019. (Maybe even in 2013, but then I did not notice my result at ASM tables are different from hand-shuffled and did not separates results into two different group.) But as I said, most ploppies now don't play ASM because they always lose. So most of them now switched to hand-shuffled tables only. But after a while, casino lost enough, they began to add face cards and remove ace cards. In the end, casinos open to make money. They will find a way to make money. I just don't know how many casinos take the chance that can lose their gambling license. For me, because I side count aces, the dealer has deep penetration like 5.5D out of 6D. sometimes less than 20 cards left, I can guess how many aces are removed after playing three or four shoes.
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Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
Barona Casino is always in clump mode. The most prevalent clump is A,2,3,4,9s … this will go on for hours. I’ve seen 25 chip betters lose 2500 to 3500 dollars at a rate of 20 percent house advantage on average. The two deck games frequently hit plus 16 and still dump low runs with neutral cards. Then a clump of tens comes with an 8 or 9 and nearly everyone pushes. Most of the aces are sorted with low cards. So when you split aces you get low cards and the dealer almost always pats. You have to determine the average size of the clumps which gives you an idea how long the run lasts until it changes over to another clump. You can profile the shuffler if you gather enough information at different times, but all the shufflers were using the same sorting algorithm... at Barona that is. You can play a clump card strategy which is more like card predicting or you can go by the count and use basic strategy with play deviations based on TC. You just gotta know when to use the appropriate strategy. Card sequencing really helps because the clumps tend to linger… and you can create markers. You can also see the edge sorting produced from the shuffler (inherent in the way is shuffles) and you want to cut the deck where it’s real tight and even and stay away from the chunked parts. I can pretty much cut into a clump of 10s every time when the shuffler is in manipulation mode 
Just a tip for those who want to exploit at certain casinos. Incorporating these strategies and not solely relying on card counting has reversed my losses considerably lately.
Just a tip for those who want to exploit at certain casinos. Incorporating these strategies and not solely relying on card counting has reversed my losses considerably lately.
beating vegas
Well-Known Member
If your going to make this claim you better have real proof from an objective method.
Thats just for your theory.
Then you need proof from an independent creditable respected professional to rule out bias.
The more outrages the claim the more evidence is needed to support it.
As of this moment there is no legitimate study to support this theory.
it’s no different then the martingale nonsense.
Thats just for your theory.
Then you need proof from an independent creditable respected professional to rule out bias.
The more outrages the claim the more evidence is needed to support it.
As of this moment there is no legitimate study to support this theory.
it’s no different then the martingale nonsense.
AchillesBlackjack
Well-Known Member
LOL!!!!BJgenius007 said:
Oh man! That was funny and sad same time. Bless your heart. But hey if works for you and making you money, cheers. I salute.
Dagobert Duck
Member
So you guys say ASM clumping is a thing. Can you guys use that knowledge to gain an edge over the house?
Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
Hello Dagobert Duck!Dagobert Duck said:
Well you could, but you have to assess that the ASM at the particular table you're watching is indeed creating clumps of cards. I just don't mean here and there or naturally occurring clumps that come and go... but every shoe. At Barona... I've seen +16/-16 (I use Hi OPT II w/Aces side count) counts for hours just wiping people out until the table was empty and nobody wanted to play there anymore. You just know something isn't right. I just wait until the cards become more random slightly increasing in count either direction ... uh pref. positive but I enjoy trying out some extreme negative count plays. Gets rid of everybody at the table
If the count rapidly rises and continues to rise with only a stray 10 here and there, you'll might be betting into a low card clump and get spanked. I flat bet a game playing perfect 2 Deck BS at Barona (Hit S17, resplit Aces and Surrender) dealing ~ 70% penetration. Not that I enjoyed it... but overall lost ~1000.00 in 4 hours flat betting $25 / hand @ ~100 hands per hour. Comes out to about %10 disadvantage. $2.50 per bet * 100/hr = $250 x 4hrs... Again most of the rounds consisted of A,2,3,4,9,10s... maybe a 5 in there sometimes... then 2,3,5,7,8s with an ace or two... 6,7s ... 10,2s... 10,9s (this is the one to really watch for).. 7,8,9s. You would see the aces fall with the small cards most of the times as well. Clumps of 10s in the area of 7 to 13 in a row on average with a 9 or 8 in there. If you arrange a double deck with these clumps.. and just cut it... you'll see how Card Counting just doesn't work at all -- totally subverts the math. In fact... if you play like the house when the deck is like this.. you'll do much better... however you'll become a victim of those asian women calling you obscene names
Remember... it don't matter if you keep switching from one to two hands... or somebody joins the game and or leaves... the idea is that it subverts BS/CC because the casino knows how most people will play. So the people behind programming the shufflers know that if the cards are clumped in a certain way, it will create poor player hands. They don't do this all the time, but doing it more often then not will significantly increase the drop. Video tape (be careful lol) these patterns the ASM creates and verify how similar the patterns are time and time again... then try this at home. Put the cards in the same order and play... you'll see how destructive it is. The order in the clump don't matter much... A,2,3,4 or 4,A,3,2... I mean sure the dealer can hit small cards and get the 6 on a 4 or 5 card 16 and bust, but you gotta think percentages. So when the 10s clump comes out... it's usually a table push. That's just the same as taking them out of the deck... which in this case you should Wong out. Low card clumps... everyone stays on their 12 - 16... doubles get small cards... split get shits... dealer will usually pat wiping most of the players out. Now the count is high and most counters will raise their bets or spread to 2 or more hands. Neutral cards mixed with low cards are another thing to watch for.... When something is way outside the bell curve for an extended period of time, you just know something isn't right. Could also mean they took some cards out of the deck. There are some casinos that won't show the new cards on the table (if they're new lol) even if you demand to see them. Be wary of that... I would only do such a thing if I was hiding something
These are all Indian casinos in Southern California that I"m basing all this on. I can't speak for e.g., Vegas or AC.Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
As it turns out, the closer you get to expert opinions on the subject, the less likely you’ll find conspiracies about the machines. In a post on Oct. 21 in the widely read and respected Anthony Curtis’ Las Vegas Advisor, gaming expert Arnold Snyder replied with skepticism.
First, he said, programming a shuffler to distribute certain cards or hands would be illegal. By law, there is no “set percentage” payout, Snyder said. The shuffling is random. He did, however, allow that not all jurisdictions are as rigorously regulated as Nevada and New Jersey, so it’s possible some machines in some clubs might be tilted against the player. So, as KewlJ said... the ability to be programmed is there or in other words, tilted against the player
First, he said, programming a shuffler to distribute certain cards or hands would be illegal. By law, there is no “set percentage” payout, Snyder said. The shuffling is random. He did, however, allow that not all jurisdictions are as rigorously regulated as Nevada and New Jersey, so it’s possible some machines in some clubs might be tilted against the player. So, as KewlJ said... the ability to be programmed is there or in other words, tilted against the player
BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
Most people who believe ASM clumping is real have reached the same conclusion: Although there are some variations trying to make ASM appears to perform random or random enough shuffling, ASM shuffler generates at least two types of clumps: small card clump and face card clump. The former consists of most small cards (A, 2, 3, 4, 5) and just few other random cards. The latter consists of most face cards and just few random cards. Small card clump tries to help the dealer always make his or her hand while making player's double is a losing hand. Face card clump tries to make dealer and player push because they all have 20 (two face cards). Although the few random cards may change the outcome a little bit different, but most of the time, ASM can achieve the goal it is set to. I play both hand-shuffled and ASM Blackjack. I can confidently claim that ASM generates much much more clumps because I won much more at hand-shuffled table even I use the same index set to play.Nightshifter said:
Another important observation is that if ASM is set not to clump, it will stay that way all night until a counter comes to the table, and someone at the casino came to change clumping setting. If no other counter comes and ASM is in random mode, I can enjoy winning all night long because it will be like hand-shuffled table.
There are two evidences that I think they can prove ASM clumps cards. This is a typical face card clump appearing to be: 7TTT86TTT92TTTTT78TT6TT9TTAAAT8TTTAAT7TTTT. There are no aces in the first half of clump because casino don't want players get BJ when TC is high. When TC is negative, players may get BJ. This occurred to me many many times. I already concluded ASM is in beast mode (clumping mode) based on my playing earlier. Then TC is very negative as we are in the middle of the face card clump. Then three players got BJ and dealer ask if anyone wants to buy insurance because his upcard is ace. Even as a counter I should not buy insurance (or even money) because TC is negative or most of the times super negative, I chose even money EVERY time. And against the odds, I am right most of the times. If this is hand-shuffled, it will never happen. But at ASM table, I saw it happen again and again, probably one hundred times against the mathematics. The second example is that if I double two small cards against dealer small card (like pairs of five against two), my long term results is that I will lose more than 80% of the times based on thousands of such hands. So I restrict myself to double in such occasion. To clearly face card clump and small card clump, I only play with full table or almost full table. This leads to me a wicked observation which occurred less than five times. There is a group of four friends in my local casino. Only one of them plays using BS. The other three play using the "mimic the dealer" (almost mimic the dealer as they might stand at 15 and 16) and almost never double or split. Guess what, mimic the dealer beats Basic Strategy or index play in the few times we play together. The last time we play at the same table, I see three of them turned $100 to $700, $300 and $250 while BS player is just even and I barely double my buy-in. It is such the moment let me wonder if counting works better than ploppy play. But I enjoy playing with them. Basically clumping algorithm loses all its power when at least three players don't do what algorithm expect players to do. But I don't have enough samples to make the claim. But I strongly suspect the key to defeat ASM clumping algorithm is not to double, not to split, keep hitting small cards even against small dealer upcard like these people do. I saw the winners at ASM tables is those who don't play strictly based on Basic Strategy, not observing the card sequence and detect if we are in the middle of small card clump. There are nothing you can do with face card clump because we will push our hands. But you can play with Lucky Lady side bet if the last round of cards consists of a few face cards. We might just enter the face card clump.
Hope these observations of mine can help those who believe ASM clumping algorithm is real.
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BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
I totally agree with you. Unlike use index plays all the time at hand-shuffled table, the key to win at ASM table is to decide, should I use clumping strategy or the old fashioned index play based on TC. A clump sequence could be 15 card or 35 card long. Being in a full table helps me tremendously. So I like to play head to head at hand-shuffled but I have to play at full table when facing ASM.Nightshifter said:Barona Casino is always in clump mode. The most prevalent clump is A,2,3,4,9s … this will go on for hours. I’ve seen 25 chip betters lose 2500 to 3500 dollars at a rate of 20 percent house advantage on average. The two deck games frequently hit plus 16 and still dump low runs with neutral cards. Then a clump of tens comes with an 8 or 9 and nearly everyone pushes. Most of the aces are sorted with low cards. So when you split aces you get low cards and the dealer almost always pats. You have to determine the average size of the clumps which gives you an idea how long the run lasts until it changes over to another clump. You can profile the shuffler if you gather enough information at different times, but all the shufflers were using the same sorting algorithm... at Barona that is. You can play a clump card strategy which is more like card predicting or you can go by the count and use basic strategy with play deviations based on TC. You just gotta know when to use the appropriate strategy. Card sequencing really helps because the clumps tend to linger… and you can create markers. You can also see the edge sorting produced from the shuffler (inherent in the way is shuffles) and you want to cut the deck where it’s real tight and even and stay away from the chunked parts. I can pretty much cut into a clump of 10s every time when the shuffler is in manipulation mode
BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
My assessment is that ASM clumping has leveled the playing field for ploppies. Basically ploppies will have similar return compared to AP or Basic Strategy player. You really need to be very sensitive to detect clump. And often when a player detects, it is near the end of a clump. And since the clump length varies from 15 to 35, you really cannot benefit much from the detection because when you switch from Basic Strategy(or index play), the clump already ended and a clump strategy likely to hurt you, not help you. In a sense, casinos and ShuffleMaster's claim that ASM is random is somewhat true. It makes the Blackjack game returns to its original form before computer generated Basic Strategy and deviation indexes. To the majority of players, they are good guys and we AP are the bad guys. When ASM perfects the clumping, everybody, ploppies, newbies or AP, will get a random card when he hits. So casinos have positive return on Blackjack as any other games in casinos. And it takes them decades to achieve this finally. No matter how hard I try to improve my ASM, I will always get more return on hand-shuffled games. Tell me why if the two types are the same, casinos only offer hand-shuffled game in high roller room?Dagobert Duck said:
That being said, AP will have only the same return compared to ploppies if they flat bet. The bet spread will amplify AP's loss because you can no longer trust indexes generated from truly random samples that computers use real random number generator. I know this will hurt book authors and software makers. But casinos and gaming industry have already won when I see it today in 2023. The game has returned to its origin. We AP had a good run in the past sixty years. Before 2012, I hardly has a losing trip. Probably only once in every twenty. But after 2012, I can sense casinos are catching up and I began to struggle. The return began to deteriorate, especially on my ASM sessions. Probably because I used to seek out the casinos with the best rules so I encounter more casinos use ASM a cheat device. But gradually I Learned that those casinos with the worse rules are actually more likely honest casinos with no cheats. I can have my return matching the predicted result there. Sometimes less is better.
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Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
Fact is true no matter if the asm or dealer (via hand) is stacking the cards. If you clump the cards like LLKewlJ observed and BJgenius... it's going to subvert BS & the AP implementing whatever counting system totally. You won't stand a chance. All & all ... it's best to observe and if things are way outside the bell curve based on years and years of experience... stay away. I mean this can happen if the dealer performs a very poor wash. The cards will stays pooled together for a while and you'll get a lot of poor hands and 20 pushes. I believe in the math, but there are 'legal' ways to subvert the math either by altering the rules or clumping like cards... and the casinos know this.
Nightshifter
Well-Known Member
Hello LarryLC Larry said:
Taoist you are when it comes to replies That's why I put ' ' before and after... I know it's illegal. But that doesn't stop any one casino from doing it. Hey believe me... I know the math works, but one can subvert the math via some sorta manipulation.