I Just Can't Lose!

K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
StandardDeviant said:
Another losing session yesterday. I was down 58 units after just 60 minutes of play. For the game I was playing, this is about a -2.2 standard deviation outcome, with a probability of ~ 1.5%. I did move on to a second casino where I ended up 30 units, for a net outcome of -28 units after ~2.5 hours play.

No big deal, of course, except this is my 10th losing session in a row, and I am down about 400 units overall - about a third of my bankroll. I replenish a portion of my BR each month, so there is no immediate problem there -- but I must say the whole thing is getting a bit tedious...:mad:
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I don't know SD. Assume you are using a sim?

At what point, might you think you might have a problem despite a constantly replenishing roll? When does it become more than "tedious"?

What does your sim say about your risk to your replenishing roll of some amount at some regular interval of time from this point forward, risk to begin with, etc while playing 6 and 8D games both head-on and at full-tables while wonging-out at TC-1?

You may actually be a girl and I actually am I guy but you may likely have cahones way way bigger than mine, I'll give you that.

Be careful outthere girlfriend lol.
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
What does your sim say about your risk to your replenishing roll of some amount at some regular interval of time from this point forward, risk to begin with, etc while playing 6 and 8D games both head-on and at full-tables while wonging-out at TC-1?
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I do use a sim, but I haven't really looked into the long term health of my replenished bank roll. I will say, however, that I replenish only 50 units a month. So if I lose more than that over an extended period, I will have a problem.

My BR is down 25%. If it goes down another 25% I'll have some real soul searching to do.
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
That is a pretty bad run. I have had much worse single sessions, but those were a combination of poor play and over betting (I'm a noob). Do you think you are making any mistakes? How aggressively do you wong, or do you play all?
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
Meistro said:
That is a pretty bad run. I have had much worse single sessions, but those were a combination of poor play and over betting (I'm a noob). Do you think you are making any mistakes? How aggressively do you wong, or do you play all?
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I am relatively new too, only playing about 1 year. I used to play all, but about 2-3 months ago I started wonging out at TC-1. I do notice that the wonging out helps.

I'm sure I am still making some mistakes, but I would say that I'm not making big mistakes, or if I am, I'm unaware of them. :eek:

I'll give it some more time, but not a lot more time. The probability of having this many (i.e., 10) losing sessions in a row is, well, pretty low - about 1% I think.
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
Wrong Bet Strategy

I was reading this thread

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=16351

which made me think that I have been making a mistake in my betting.

I have been using the cover of not decreasing my bets after wins and not increasing my bets after losses (plus keeping my bets the same after pushes).

This of course sometimes keeps me from having bigger bets out was the count increases, and/or having too big of a bet out when the count has gone back down -- all for the sake of some cover.

Is this a mistake when playing at the red/green levels?
 
daddybo

daddybo

Well-Known Member
Friends don't let friends make cover plays.. Cover Kills. Its real simple. Bet small when you are going to lose. Bet large when you are going to win. really. :)
 
creeping panther

creeping panther

Banned
D-bo

daddybo said:
Friends don't let friends make cover plays.. Cover Kills. Its real simple. Bet small when you are going to lose. Bet large when you are going to win. really. :)
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I must say you do practice what you preach :) ;) :cool:

CP
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
I agree with DaddyBo.

Certainly this kind of extreme cover, and it IS extremely expensive, is NEVER justified when playing red or light green.

Under certain circumstances it could be correct, e.g. if "playing for comps" betting black.
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
Thanks guys. This is very helpful. In retrospect, I think I've been too influenced by Andersen's writing in Burning the Tables. I know that he was talking play way above my level, but I thought that I should apply some of the concepts to me.

I'm coming to realize, with your help, that I've taken things too far and I am wasting the small advantage I may have. No wonder I've seen these small losses instead of the small gains I should be expecting. :whip:

Thank you.
 
Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
FLASH1296 said:
I agree with DaddyBo.

Certainly this kind of extreme cover, and it IS extremely expensive, is NEVER justified when playing red or light green.

Under certain circumstances it could be correct, e.g. if "playing for comps" betting black.
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Isn't that sort of betting recommended in Blackjack Attack?
 
daddybo

daddybo

Well-Known Member
Deathclutch said:
Isn't that sort of betting recommended in Blackjack Attack?
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I believe it is... but it's not good advice. :eyepatch:

note* (I have not read BJA)
 
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Deathclutch

Deathclutch

Well-Known Member
How much does it cost to somewhat follow that advice, at least the not increasing your bet more than a parlay? I've been trying to incorporate a little more cover into my game, but I don't want to start playing a negative game.
 
StandardDeviant

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
0.06071%

That's the probability of losing 11 sessions in a row...assuming a house advantage of 1%. 0.03910 is the probability for an advantage player. We're talking hundredths of a percent here!

Who could defy the odds and achieve that kind of outcome? Well, me. My 11th losing session in a row occurred today. Again, not a big loss, but a loss nonetheless.

This is getting really, really difficult to endure...:cry:
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
Are you counting aces as +1 and fives as -1? :laugh: I am very sorry to hear about your bad luck. One of the many reasons why I prefer really long sessions is because it often takes me a while to get into a shoe with a high count that lasts a long time (ofc I have to deal with bad pen which I counter with rather aggressive wonging, it's kind of funny to make a dealer shuffle just to play 2 or 3 hands against them). Are these all at the same venue? Is it possible for you to drop down in limits? Have you been doing much studying / practicing outside of your play? Have you considered switching to hilo? It does preform better and it's really not that hard to learn after a while - although I still have some difficulties with TC conversion esp. w/ regards to index plays such as insurance.
 
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