I Just Can't Lose!

[aslan]

Very interesting point and I agree with you. The mechanics of the game are only the beginning. That said, I think there is still an element of the game that runs itself and one either wins or loses as a result. For example, take T,T v. 4 with a TC+1. So I stand, and the dealer turns over a 7 and then draws a 10 herself. No big deal, right? Well, when I lose 7 out 10 such hands when the odds are 66% in my favor, it starts to wear me down. Then there are the 21s that end up a push. Then there was the dealer who dealt himself 7 BJs in a row. Then...

I'd like to think that in those situations there is some missing element in my game, some technique I am lacking that would change the outcome. For the life of me I don't know what that is - other than increasing my emotional ability to deal with sustained losses. And for that, school is in session for me.

I have found two things that give me the emotional stability to weather the slings and arrow of outrageous variance: (1) never play when tired, and (2) never bet outside your comfort zone. Those are the keys for me. If you ignore #2, as most counters do at one time or another, make sure you are well rested and make sure you understand that you are gambling even though it is advantage play. Your emotions may lead to inappropriate play, and you are never in more danger of losing than when you cannot afford to do so (it's like a self-fulfilling prophecy! Some call it Murphy's law. lol).

 

[21gunsalute]

I've noticed sometimes I lose more when the count is positive than neg... I was back-counting a high roller table tonight (just practice) and as soon as the running count went -3 on a 6-deck shoe with about 30% pen, the guy got two 21's, a couple 19's and finally a blackjack.... As the count went positive all the way to the cut card, he was getting his ass handed to him.... Why does that happen?

Sometimes? It seems to happen to me nearly everytime! Last night using a $5-$60 spread I lost $195 during the first shoe. Lost every hand when the count was high and I bet more than one chip. Changed tables and lost $95 on the first shoe there. Same scenario. I stayed at this table because the dealer was giving a great pen, only cutting off half a deck if that. It didn't matter, I continued to lose and never once won a bet when I had more than $10 on the table. Switched tables again and started to make a comeback. Made back about $175 on the next 3 shoes, never betting more than $10 (and almost exclusively $5) because the count was always low or negative. Finally on the next shoe the count went high immediately. I put the appropriate big bets out and again lost every single stinking hand until I ran out of cash and had to leave, down $560 for the night. I have no doubt that had I simply flat betted or bet opposite of what the count says I should have bet I would have made an absolute killing! This has not just been a random example. It has been quite typical for me. I've been counting cards for about 6 months now, playing several times a week and I've had exactly one good night where I actually won big when I had big bets out at the appropriate times. And yet I always seem to to do well when the count is low or negative and I'm only betting 1 or 2 units. So why do I count cards?

 

[aslan]

Friends don't let friends make cover plays.. Cover Kills. Its real simple. Bet small when you are going to lose. Bet large when you are going to win. really.

Now there's a concept! Bet large when you're going to win! Hmmm. :laugh:

 

[aslan]

Sometimes? It seems to happen to me nearly everytime! Last night using a $5-$60 spread I lost $195 during the first shoe. Lost every hand when the count was high and I bet more than one chip. Changed tables and lost $95 on the first shoe there. Same scenario. I stayed at this table because the dealer was giving a great pen, only cutting off half a deck if that. It didn't matter, I continued to lose and never once won a bet when I had more than $10 on the table. Switched tables again and started to make a comeback. Made back about $175 on the next 3 shoes, never betting more than $10 (and almost exclusively $5) because the count was always low or negative. Finally on the next shoe the count went high immediately. I put the appropriate big bets out and again lost every single stinking hand until I ran out of cash and had to leave, down $560 for the night. I have no doubt that had I simply flat betted or bet opposite of what the count says I should have bet I would have made an absolute killing! This has not just been a random example. It has been quite typical for me. I've been counting cards for about 6 months now, playing several times a week and I've had exactly one good night where I actually won big when I had big bets out at the appropriate times. And yet I always seem to to do well when the count is low or negative and I'm only betting 1 or 2 units. So why do I count cards?

I played baccarat only once. I decided to put up $400 and see what happened. I lost 16 hands in a row betting $20 on the player. I switched to the bank on the 17th hand and lost. I switched back to player for 18 through 20 and lost all three. I lost 20 hands in a row on my very first venture into baccarat, losing $400 in the blink of an eye. Stay with it. Make sure in practice that you're not screwing up your counts, and play perfect basic strategy. It will all work out. You are getting the best lesson of your lifetime--that is, you are learning that (1) you are not inherently lucky, and (2) the long run is simply that, the "long" run.

Also, make sure you are not over-betting your bankroll, or falling into steaming behavior when you get to losing.

 

[Machinist]

Very well put

The secret is staying within your comfort zone. I find that with the appropriate bankroll, I am always within my comfort zone. I suspect, if someone is uncomfortable, they have established a bankroll that they really cannot afford to lose. Never include money in a bankroll that you cannot afford to lose.

If you are betting money you cannot afford to lose, money that would alter your lifestyle if lost, then you are gambling in the worst sense of the word. The whole idea of counting for me is to avoid gambling. But some use it to mask their penchant for gambling.

Decide. Do I want to be a gambler or do I want to be an advantage player. To straddle the two is fraught with peril. Then again, if you're a gambler, you might enjoy that. But don't come crying here that you did all the right things and lost a bundle (like I have been known to do). lol

The road of experience to knowledge is a winding, dangerous road, or you can just believe those who have gone before you. Try for the latter. Caution: the roller coaster emotions that you will experience if you bet outside your comfort zone may be dangerous to your health.

Thanks Aslan,
Yes the comfort zone is so important!!!! I would have to say the most important thing to a persons mental stability for the game. I know that if i sit down to play a small 25cent progressive ; that is like playing with pocket change. Zero sweat at all!!!!
The unknown game is also very uncomfortable. I spent many years playing single line VP progressives. Very used to it and very comfortable. Then along comes 3play and 5 playVP. Unknown.....Yikes!!!!! Read , read , read and read again, talk to people, and then jump in. The biggest question for me...... is the fluctuation less in 3play vs a single line as the books say? The answer is way less.
At this point in time i can see why playing 2 or 3 hands of BJ lowers your fluxes. Very simular stuff....

Take care all

Machinist

 

[sharonestone]

I remember playing with you at the BASH, and I invited you to join this site, you have took your name most likely because I told you that you look just like a young Sharon Stone. You are indeed very beautiful and a righteous BJ player, all the men certainly found you irresistable, especially Lonesome Gambler who had a thing for those handcuffs you had:grin::laugh:

Nice to see you posting, "Sharon Stone". (You are the essence of femininity).

As Always,
CP

You are too kind.

 

[21gunsalute]

It happened again tonight. Was up about $60 making small bets in low counts, then got a shoe where the TC was between 6-8 for several hands. I raised my wagers and lost every hand and all my cash on hand once again. I do not believe that counting works for everyone. You can run all the sims you want, but they aren't real life experiences. You can't control the cards and you cannot overcome the luck factor, which is always going to be there regardless of how favorable the numbers are or how many weeks, months or years you've been counting. I had a stiff hand 5 times in a row at these counts and then got a 17 on the last hand. Once again if I merely had flat betted I would have been about even at that point rather going home way too soon, broke and muttering to myself on the way out the door. I think I'm about to give up counting. I'm sure it works for some people but all it does for me is to guarantee that I'm going to lose every hand when the count is high and send me home broke and frustrated.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

You lose more than you win, even in big counts. You have to learn to deal with it. I won an absurd amount of money (for me) the other night playing mostly marginally +EV shoes, and today I could barely win a hand with monster counts. C'est la vie. Counting playable games will in fact overcome the luck factor, even when referred to by it's other name: "variance." I agree that counting isn't for everyone, but I disagree that it doesn't work for everyone due to bad luck.

 

[aslan]

You lose more than you win, even in big counts. You have to learn to deal with it. I won an absurd amount of money (for me) the other night playing mostly marginally +EV shoes, and today I could barely win a hand with monster counts. C'est la vie. Counting playable games will in fact overcome the luck factor, even when referred to by it's other name: "variance." I agree that counting isn't for everyone, but I disagree that it doesn't work for everyone due to bad luck.

I agree. Poor performance, underfunding, those are the enemies. Expert play, adequate bankroll yield positive long run results.

 

[Machinist]

First things first LOL

I believe i was at the Bash and dammit i didn't see SharonStone. WTF guys, CP? LG,? was i at the same Bash!!!!!! LOL
Back to business......Okay 21gunsalute PM me and i will wire you ONE MILLION DOLLARS for free, just shoot me a little vig as you win....!!!! LOL Come on now that's what everybody is talking about Comfortable Bank Roll !!!!! Quite obvious you are a little short there.
Exactly how many hands did you play in this session? Couple hundred? more or less
Not much of a sim there.
Keep at it you will get there, if not oh well......
Here's another thing that has been bugging me about you BJ players. ROR is defined as a percentage of risk of losing your Bankroll before you double it? Correct me if i am wrong please. So you need a 2,3 hundred units for a bankroll? With that bankroll,
I have a 99 percent chance of succeeding??????????? SIGN ME UP Yowsa!!!!
Just an observation of reading past posts and such, and how everyone talks about this subject as 1percent or what ever the percent is of losing it all.
I tried starting a few businesses in my time and i don't think that they even had anything remotely close to a 99% chance of success
Yea (99%Chance of success) i like that number alot.
Am i thinking wrong here??? I've been in a casino now for almost 2 weeks maybe my brain is getting mushhy.....
Any comments am i missing something??
(By the way my signature is a quote from a friend to a friend that used to work slot hustle with him , seemed he had a habit of Phantom spinning the slots and pocketing what wasn't spun through the machines) LOL ya gotta have been there. LOL
Take Care all

Machinist

 

[sagefr0g]

...
Here's another thing that has been bugging me about you BJ players. ROR is defined as a percentage of risk of losing your Bankroll before you double it?

i keep forgetting that part about ROR being the risk of losing your roll while trying to double it but yeah i believe that is a way that it is mathematically looked at. (edit: i wonder what that means after you get so lucky as to double it?)
http://www.bjrnet.com/member/bjapr/G.htm#gamblersruin

there are various kinds of risk of ruin, trip and so called lifetime risk of ruin.
here is a link with some stuff about ror:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ror/ror.htm (Archive copy)

Correct me if i am wrong please. So you need a 2,3 hundred units for a bankroll? With that bankroll,
I have a 99 percent chance of succeeding??????????? SIGN ME UP Yowsa!!!!
Just an observation of reading past posts and such, and how everyone talks about this subject as 1percent or what ever the percent is of losing it all.
...
Machinist

that all depends, on the particular game or games you go after, the spread and ramp you use according to the count and how optimal your bets are.
probably 2,3 hundred untis would be fine for a trip roll, but your lifetime roll needs to be much larger.
personally i wouldn't try to figure trip ror or lifetime ror with out a sim of the particular game (s) involved and my own fear factor, lol.

 

[StandardDeviant]

Lesson Learned!

Finally I had a winning session yesterday, picking up 26 units after about 4 hours of play. I knew it had to happen eventually! :grin:

I only made one change to my game going in (WARNING: voodoo alert), and that is that I refused to let myself get into a funk. I started losing early, and started to get upset, but then caught myself and relaxed. Did this allow me to play better? I don't know, but it sure felt better!

Most of the hands played out "normally," meaning that I usually won "expected" hands like T,T v 5, and I even won some of my big bet hands. A number of the index plays I made actually worked, restoring some of my faith in the system.

So what did I learn from my 11 session losing streak? A few things.

1. I got to feel what the emotional roller coaster is like, and I learned that I have to better manage my emotions if I am going to be successful at this game. I thought I knew how to do this, being a currency trader for a number of years. I was wrong.
2. Keeping "score" by counting winning and losing sessions is not a particularly good idea. What defines a "session" anyway? Just because I stop and go home at some point doesn't mean that that is when I should "keep score." I could have just as easily looked at where I was at noon each day or some other arbitrary point, and I would have had a different number of winning and losing "sessions." The cards don't know sessions, they just flow in a stream.
3. I need to keep a log. I did for a while when I first started playing, but then stopped (out of laziness I think). Instead of keeping a log, I was keeping score by counting the number of "winning sessions" and watching my bankroll total. Not having a log caused (at least) two problems: (a) I became too preoccupied with counting sessions and (b) I didn't have an accurate idea of how I was doing.
4. I did some backcounting at full tables with better than average pen, waiting to get a seat. I noticed (surprise, surprise) that crappy hands happen to everyone now and then. It's not like the cards, the dealer, the casino have a particular vendetta against me (well, maybe the casino).

 

[Deathangl13]

You know what I found helps.... Hold the running count in your head, whatever it is, while the dealer deals the first cards of the round to all of the players, but DO NOT COUNT THEM. Wait till the dealer starts dealing the second cards of the round at the first player with both of his cards and start your count (I count two cards at a time) going down the line behind the dealer right after he lays everyone's second card. You'll have a running count right after she/he's done with the last player, when you count the last players card. Then when they ask the first player what their move is, just count the cards as they come out, since there will be a little delay, and if the player is slow even better. By the time the dealer plays their hand, you'll finish counting as they are playing their hand. Look at your decks, divide for TC, and keep going....

Ghost....

 

[aslan]

You know what I found helps.... Hold the running count in your head, whatever it is, while the dealer deals the first cards of the round to all of the players, but DO NOT COUNT THEM. Wait till the dealer starts dealing the second cards of the round at the first player with both of his cards and start your count (I count two cards at a time) going down the line behind the dealer right after he lays everyone's second card. You'll have a running count right after she/he's done with the last player, when you count the last players card. Then when they ask the first player what their move is, just count the cards as they come out, since there will be a little delay, and if the player is slow even better. By the time the dealer plays their hand, you'll finish counting as they are playing their hand. Look at your decks, divide for TC, and keep going....

Ghost....

I always wait for the second round of deals to start. Makes it a whole lot easier to count by pairs, canceling out most pairings, and matching TenTens to LittleLittles, if you know what I mean. You can almost count with out looking! A lot of times everything just seems to cancel out and you don't have to count at all, if you know what I mean! I'm lazy and this suits me just fine!

 

[21gunsalute]

You lose more than you win, even in big counts. You have to learn to deal with it. I won an absurd amount of money (for me) the other night playing mostly marginally +EV shoes, and today I could barely win a hand with monster counts. C'est la vie. Counting playable games will in fact overcome the luck factor, even when referred to by it's other name: "variance." I agree that counting isn't for everyone, but I disagree that it doesn't work for everyone due to bad luck.

So how exactly does this work? Do the card gods hold quarterly meetings and say "this guy's been getting screwed for 6 months now, it's time we start steering the good cards his way"? Nope. There is a luck factor involved in every session, every shoe, every hand and every draw. It's this unknown factor that keeps the game interesting, but losing your money time and time again isn't so interesting. BTW, if as you said "you lose more than you win, even in big counts" you'll never come out ahead. Losing more than you win in big counts simply makes you lose more, faster.

 

[21gunsalute]

Finally I had a winning session yesterday, picking up 26 units after about 4 hours of play. I knew it had to happen eventually! :grin:

Congratulations! Maybe you can rub some of that good fortune off on me. I think I'm going to make a change to my game too and only bet big when I'm using the casino's money. That's what I used to do and got good results. I bought into the entire counting system here hook, line and sinker and I think it needs to be tweaked because it sure hasn't worked for me.

 

[Jack_Black]

I remember playing with you at the BASH, and I invited you to join this site, you have took your name most likely because I told you that you look just like a young Sharon Stone. You are indeed very beautiful and a righteous BJ player, all the men certainly found you irresistable, especially Lonesome Gambler who had a thing for those handcuffs you had:grin::laugh:

Nice to see you posting, "Sharon Stone". (You are the essence of femininity).

As Always,
CP

No way! Hey Machinist! If I remember correctly, then I can vouch for sharon stone. That is crazy CP! I remember you guys hitting on her, calling her a young sharon stone. I started wonging standing next to her, then I got a phone call from a buddy so I ended up talking to him for a bit. Good work there, if sharon stone is the girl I'm thinking about. Unless you guys call all women you hit on young sharon stone. Dammit though! That's yet another highlight of the bash that I missed then. I'm sticking to you guys like glue next time, there'll be plenty of times at home when I can play alone.

A big welcome to blackjackinfo.com for the gorgeous Sharon Stone!

 

[aslan]

but losing your money time and time again isn't so interesting.

It gets my attention! But I know what you mean--it isn't so interesting in an enjoyable sort of way. I'm just being a SA, if you know what I mean. :joker::whip:

 

[aslan]

Congratulations! Maybe you can rub some of that good fortune off on me. I think I'm going to make a change to my game too and only bet big when I'm using the casino's money. That's what I used to do and got good results. I bought into the entire counting system here hook, line and sinker and I think it needs to be tweaked because it sure hasn't worked for me.

It especially will not work if you are under-funded. By selectively choosing when you will bet big, you are only lengthening the time it takes to get to the long run. True, you won't be losing your original bankroll, but any new additions to your bankroll are factored into how long it takes you to get to the long run. It's a conservative choice that is yours to make, but be mindful that it is only conservative in the short run. It flies against the whole theory of card counting. The times you fail to bet big because it is your so-called money, may be the times that you would have prospered the most going forward (NOT looking backward). I have a conundrum for you: what do you do when you find yourself dead even, or worse yet, behind, in terms of your beginning bankroll? Quit playing blackjack, or violate your principle of only betting big when you are using the house's money? Flat betting gives you no real promise of increasing your bankroll, only losing it more slowly in the long run. If you could depend on flat betting to get you back out ahead, then you should abandon card counting altogether, because you have found a better and less risky alternative.

 

[Jack_Black]

So how exactly does this work? Do the card gods hold quarterly meetings and say "this guy's been getting screwed for 6 months now, it's time we start steering the good cards his way"? Nope. There is a luck factor involved in every session, every shoe, every hand and every draw. It's this unknown factor that keeps the game interesting, but losing your money time and time again isn't so interesting. BTW, if as you said "you lose more than you win, even in big counts" you'll never come out ahead. Losing more than you win in big counts simply makes you lose more, faster.

Yes, there is a luck factor and it is only luck that gets you wins. All pros use luck to make their income. The MIT Team, Mathprof, James Grosjean, Don Schlessinger, they all based their systems around luck, and that's why they're so rich. Like they won the blackjack lottery. Casinos hate card counters because they use luck to win.

In big counts you win your double downs and splits more often, and when you get a blackjack in a big count, hopefully you had your max bet out to get a huge 3:2 payout vs. getting a 3:2 payout on your min. bet.

I will say that I've been wondering if this whole card counting venture is just an intellectual way to rationalize our degenerate gambling addiction. As I find myself addicted to gambling now, but I rationalize with my family and friends that it is not gambling if you're winning. We sound just a step better than the ploppy who takes out a midnight second mortgage because he says he can win it back, he just needs the money. We rationalize it by saying, I'm getting -S.D. right now, and I gotta pull more money out because I just need to play enough hands to get back into +S.D. Even the MIT team experienced a $1million downswing, and they just stood to their guns and came out of it. we give a mathematical term to luck and call it variance. we use money management techniques like progression bettors, except we call it a bet ramp. Of course we win in the the long run, and fair better than ploppies and proggies, but are we that much better in morals that we deserve to be placed 10 tiers above them?