Inside the mind of a bj pro
- Thread starter bjcount
- Start date
It's rare to see a player with stacks of grey which caught my attention as I was walking through the HL pit.EasyRhino said:
By my quick estimate, the player had 3 half stacks of grey in front of him, a partial stack of yellow, and 5-6 purple (approx. 170K). He definitely had the bankroll in front of him to play it correctly but he must of been having a bad day to back off the last split. I just wonder what his buy in was.
BJC
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sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
insider info
shuffle
wash, strip, riffle
go ahead get'em mixed
thinkin i'm gonna be tricked
lay your trap upon the table
fool me if your able
did you know i read your book and history?
don't you know i love a good mystery?
didn't you momma tell you there is no system can't be beat?
cast your rules under a random shroud
hidden beneath your fixed game, cheat
i know full well the meaning, the terms you allowed
don't you know that i know that i won't win?
how you give me just enough to suck me in
go ahead and win, honey
i'm gonna take your money
so it is the deck is stacked
careful, though your secret's been hacked
chances are we just might
restack the cards in this fight
splits, doubles downs, insurance bets and the snapper
and oh, yeah your gonna pay for my supper
so you always win more often,
thinking maybe my heart you'll soften
but i'm watching and waiting
catch a glimpse of your heel
go ahead Achilles and deal
the time will come and your advantage i'll be negating
the cards they are a falling unfolding a history
the random cloud is lifting unveiling the mystery
and i can clearly see
perhaps a double, insurance bet or natural
just might very well in my future be
advantage may be actual
for sometimes it is true as the cards are dealt
the low's are seen streaming across the felt
leaving aces and faces left unseen
my chances of doubles, insurance and blackjack is keen
bet now carefully crafted i'll gamble
my insurance, snapper, tie, or double
i can't be sure in this random scramble
just know this, you may be in trouble.
shuffle
wash, strip, riffle
go ahead get'em mixed
thinkin i'm gonna be tricked
lay your trap upon the table
fool me if your able
did you know i read your book and history?
don't you know i love a good mystery?
didn't you momma tell you there is no system can't be beat?
cast your rules under a random shroud
hidden beneath your fixed game, cheat
i know full well the meaning, the terms you allowed
don't you know that i know that i won't win?
how you give me just enough to suck me in
go ahead and win, honey
i'm gonna take your money
so it is the deck is stacked
careful, though your secret's been hacked
chances are we just might
restack the cards in this fight
splits, doubles downs, insurance bets and the snapper
and oh, yeah your gonna pay for my supper
so you always win more often,
thinking maybe my heart you'll soften
but i'm watching and waiting
catch a glimpse of your heel
go ahead Achilles and deal
the time will come and your advantage i'll be negating
the cards they are a falling unfolding a history
the random cloud is lifting unveiling the mystery
and i can clearly see
perhaps a double, insurance bet or natural
just might very well in my future be
advantage may be actual
for sometimes it is true as the cards are dealt
the low's are seen streaming across the felt
leaving aces and faces left unseen
my chances of doubles, insurance and blackjack is keen
bet now carefully crafted i'll gamble
my insurance, snapper, tie, or double
i can't be sure in this random scramble
just know this, you may be in trouble.
creeping panther
Banned
Wow
CP
You ARE good BJ Bro' :grin:sagefr0g said:
CP
What's nerve got to do with it?bjcount said:
If, as a red chip guy with same $roll as when he bet black, he has 20 times more units in roll and risk is really really small with that same $roll.
If a red chipper with a roll, 20 times less, than the roll he played to as a black chipper, his risk is the same since the units in his roll are the same.
If he has no idea what his risk is before he plays, and only sees the $'s he might make, well, then, always remember, wherever you go, there you are.
Kasi said:
Kasibjcount said:
With all due respect but I believe you missed my point. Your saying that if the player has the correct br to play black, while I am refering to the red chipper having a good day at the tables and wants to play black on a red chippers BR.
BJC
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
i know the idea is have an adequate bankroll. and some how the advice is that money should be expendable with respect to your financial position, so as if you lost it you could live with it sort of thing. and also say the risk is really really small.Kasi said:
thing is to me, i'd be less inclined to risk a much larger amount of money as opposed to risking a much lower amount of money against the same level of risk.
in other words if i'm willing to take a chance of losing $5 to win some amount and i'm considering taking a chance of losing $100 to win some equivalently proportionate amount i'd want my chances of winning that equivalently proportionate amount to be much greater than the case where the unit is $5, either that or my risk of losing the $100 to be much lower than the case where the unit is $5. about twenty times lower or better, i guess.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
utility function theory stuff
then maybe worse the psychology of the gamble sort of stuff.
like think about the contestants on deal or no deal with the briefcases and pretty girls.
maybe they in their everyday life might never dream of risking losing, oh say $60,000.00 over a two day or so period of time. but on that show they are willing to do it in a heartbeat with the encouragement of their spur of the moment reasoning friends, neighbors and relatives urgings.
go figure.
or maybe really try and understand what some level of risk means. or even what the nature of the risk is, the mechanics of it, if that can even be known. just how serious of a matter is it?
how can the ramifications of that risk present over time. like say you started with some amount and lose half of it or what ever. what are your prospects from that point? or maybe we look at some simulation and get some results W/L expectation with some ROR, what we don't see is what happened along the way over billions of hands played to achieve those results. what's that mean to some one not replenishing a bank roll, living off a non replenished bankroll or taking winnings against that bank roll?
how is any given person going to respond to a 'significant' amount of money lost? maybe, one might not have a clue if it's never happened, maybe they just 'think' they know. or even if they really do know, what will that persons financial position be in the future and depending upon that how will they view their actions of the past?
so many things.:whip:
lol, probably nothing to do with intelligence, probably more to do with the myriad ways the billions of earthlings value their money not even to mention the varying degrees of difficulty they might have extended accumulating that money. lets not even speculate about what money might be worth tomorrow or twenty years from now. who depends on you and your money today, how about ten years from now? whatever, what does money mean to any given individual? how would who ever spend it or expect to profit from it and for what reasons?bjcount said:
then maybe worse the psychology of the gamble sort of stuff.
like think about the contestants on deal or no deal with the briefcases and pretty girls.
maybe they in their everyday life might never dream of risking losing, oh say $60,000.00 over a two day or so period of time. but on that show they are willing to do it in a heartbeat with the encouragement of their spur of the moment reasoning friends, neighbors and relatives urgings.
go figure.
or maybe really try and understand what some level of risk means. or even what the nature of the risk is, the mechanics of it, if that can even be known. just how serious of a matter is it?
how can the ramifications of that risk present over time. like say you started with some amount and lose half of it or what ever. what are your prospects from that point? or maybe we look at some simulation and get some results W/L expectation with some ROR, what we don't see is what happened along the way over billions of hands played to achieve those results. what's that mean to some one not replenishing a bank roll, living off a non replenished bankroll or taking winnings against that bank roll?
how is any given person going to respond to a 'significant' amount of money lost? maybe, one might not have a clue if it's never happened, maybe they just 'think' they know. or even if they really do know, what will that persons financial position be in the future and depending upon that how will they view their actions of the past?
so many things.
:whip:Right - I guess I was assuming they were both counters lol.bjcount said:
In which case the red chipper would never even entertain such a thought just because he's having a good day. Or even a bad one and wants to get even lol. Either way, he'd realize he's massively over-betting his roll, like ER said and not do it. If he realized this and did it, then, he just loves to look in the mirror and ask it "Who's the best card-counter in the land?."
In reading it again, I wondered why you called that guy's $1500 bet 15 units?
Were you watching many hands to determine he was a card-counter? Maybe he was just flatting $1500 and doesn't even know BS lol.
Or maybe a counter and made a small mistake. Or maybe it was cover lol.
We were just really saying the same thing I think - don't go changing your risk level when you bet lol.
I don't see why you seem to focus on the amount of buy-in or the amount of chips in front of a player or why it has much to do with anything. It's not like it gives a clue as to what his total roll that he's playing to is or how much more may be in his pocket.
Except for maybe how in the world would you explain a counter with a $100 unit be sitting there with 1700 units in front of him? Is that what you said? $170,000 in chips in front of him?
Kasi said:
I didn't say the guy playing had a 15u bet, I wasn't watching him play other then the hand I caught as I walked by. It was his stacks of grey (yes approx 170k) that made his play very surprising.BJC said:
My example later of "you" or a counter at a 15u bet was only for comparison purposes. Your correct that a counter who would have a 15u out and even give it a second thought to resplit as 15u would be at high TC's would be using intuition and not playing like a robot. Sorry if I errored in my example.
In another thread someone had mentioned that they wanted to play black on a red chippers BR because they were having a good day. If I found the thead again I would have placed this factual event there instead of here.
BJC
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Right - no big deal lol.bjcount said:
But, for comparison purposes, I'd think any counter who, say, had a max bet of 15 units at a high TC would not hesitate in the slightest at re-splitting as many times as the game allowed. He would not be using any intuition but he would be betting like a robot according to his original plan.
Anybody, counter, BS player, however he's betting, who wants to go from 1 unit to 20 units, becasue he's having a "good day" better be an awful lot luckier than he is good.
And, you know, just the type that will win anyway