Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
We definitely are not asking!!So_what_MD said:
is there really hot table or cold table
- Thread starter bjplayer123
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So_what_MD
Active Member
Thanx. Norm has always been helpful.gronbog said:
greedy today, 3 questions lol
1) For emotional reasons, I like to to stop happy. Otherwise, if I am up 1, dont leave, end up down 2, a swing of 3 large. I feel bad all night. Hence I leave when I am up 6-10 hands of 3 squares med to big bets. Am I ripping myself off? I have never won 5000, but lost that several times a year. Should I learn to "NOT COUNT THE MONEY"? Play it like the dealers, 40 on 20 off, 8 hours a day, win or lose go home.
2) would you play 0.4 kelly without worrying cash? or 1 kelly and expect to top up bankroll when required? (doubling up every 1000 hours is NICE)
3) my 20 year amateur average: 5 wins 2 losses; but losses usually bigger, hence i am really only up 1-2 session out of every 7. Is that acceptable? Can I improve that by changing point (1) earlier?
thanx in advance.
Rua
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
I thought you said you wouldn't bring up your nonsense unless someone asked...nobody asked or even responded. Please go away with your nonsense....this is supposed to be an Advantage blackjack player forum.So_what_MD said:
So_what_MD
Active Member
Nonsense???Counting_Is_Fun said:
When does a counter stop playing each session? That is non sense?
Cost and benefit of 0.4 or 1.0 Kelly is non sense?
Another person said the same thing. I mentioned hot/cold 2 years ago. I have not since then. Wonder if server didn’t get my posting and timing mixed up.
Biggest disadvantage is NOT house edge. Do you not know people flat bet $50 and lose their life savings? Where is the math?
Mass General Hospital did this, not me, so don’t yell lol. Our Anterior Cingulated Cortex make financial decisions for us. ACC also can be blindfolded temporarily. This is a DANGEROUS combination. This is how $50 flat bet loses him/her everything.
MGH proved MRI brain wave rans flat (calm) when winning. Graph goes crazy (heightened) when losing. This explains why people are in control when they win; but wager “uncontrollably” when they lose. Have you never done it?
It will take YEARS to train/control your ACC. A predetermined guideline when to stop (winning or losing) is much easier.
Son, even if I “were” dumb and stupid, have a heart. Live and let live. Don’t be so harsh on another fellow human being.
We aren't being harsh. We're telling you that some of us have been at this for 45-50 years, and there's little we haven't seen or heard. We're telling you that the members of this forum are not interested in pursuing your line of conversation. So please don't "force" yourself on us.
Don
Don
So_what_MD
Active Member
DonDSchles said:
I totally get it. water under the bridge. I never mentioned that since. I had 3 questions for Grif. I am aware of your work Don. Perhaps you can help me out with this.
1. picking a time to quit - in theory, I should play til I am tired. But I always pick a time to quit when I am up. am I leaving money on the table?
2. 0.4 kelly is safe, in the expense of rate of return. 1 kelly is nice, but I might have to keep adding bankroll. that becomes an open liability issue.
can you shed some light on the above pls?
Thank you in advance
Rua
"I totally get it. water under the bridge. I never mentioned that since. I had 3 questions for Grif. I am aware of your work Don. Perhaps you can help me out with this."
Much better line of conversation! Thank you. And yes, I can help you.
"1. picking a time to quit - in theory, I should play til I am tired."
No, you should play short sessions of 45 minutes to one hour, to minimize the possibilities of being detected by surveillance. Playing long sessions at one casino until you're tired is a recipe for ultimate disaster.
"But I always pick a time to quit when I am up. am I leaving money on the table?"
That's a singularly bad idea. Quitting according to winning or losing should never be a factor. If you play an hour, and you're losing, LOSE! Book the loss. What do you think you gain by continuing to play? You can't will a win anyway. It's a foolish and very counterproductive notion that will do nothing but get you in trouble. STOP doing it.
"2. 0.4 kelly is safe, in the expense of rate of return. 1 kelly is nice, but I might have to keep adding bankroll. that becomes an open liability issue.
can you shed some light on the above pls?"
If you know the numbers, the ultimate decision is up to you. Many avoid full Kelly because of the roller-coaster ride induced by variance. Yes 0.4, or other fractional Kelly rates, is safer, but at the expense of reduced e.v. That choice has to be yours, based on the bankroll considerations that you mention above. Play that fraction that let's you sleep at night and doesn't put undue financial strain on you.
"Thank you in advance."
You're welcome. Keep the non-controversial questions coming!
Don
Much better line of conversation! Thank you. And yes, I can help you.
"1. picking a time to quit - in theory, I should play til I am tired."
No, you should play short sessions of 45 minutes to one hour, to minimize the possibilities of being detected by surveillance. Playing long sessions at one casino until you're tired is a recipe for ultimate disaster.
"But I always pick a time to quit when I am up. am I leaving money on the table?"
That's a singularly bad idea. Quitting according to winning or losing should never be a factor. If you play an hour, and you're losing, LOSE! Book the loss. What do you think you gain by continuing to play? You can't will a win anyway. It's a foolish and very counterproductive notion that will do nothing but get you in trouble. STOP doing it.
"2. 0.4 kelly is safe, in the expense of rate of return. 1 kelly is nice, but I might have to keep adding bankroll. that becomes an open liability issue.
can you shed some light on the above pls?"
If you know the numbers, the ultimate decision is up to you. Many avoid full Kelly because of the roller-coaster ride induced by variance. Yes 0.4, or other fractional Kelly rates, is safer, but at the expense of reduced e.v. That choice has to be yours, based on the bankroll considerations that you mention above. Play that fraction that let's you sleep at night and doesn't put undue financial strain on you.
"Thank you in advance."
You're welcome. Keep the non-controversial questions coming!
Don
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
See that wasn't so hard...better questions receive good replies from Don himself 
So_what_MD
Active Member
thanx both Don and CIF. I just wonder if the server didnt have my postings mixed up. I talked about hot/cold 2 years ago. I didnt mention it since. You guys seemed to be reading old stuff.
anyhow, Don, thanx, further ...
I am shooting for 1000 hours in 6 months. otherwise, not worth it. one hour at a time = massive down time. I live in a smaller community with a reasonable social profile. The one casino here leaves me alone. I have license to back count and jump in. Except they cut 60/40 and no surrender. When i go somewhere else, I usually have to make deals with somebody lol. if they are capitalistic enough, usually works. if not, i know i am on borrowed time anyways.
I just wanna do this full time, at least once, before the game becomes completely random sample WITH replacements. furthermore, I will have more spare time to spend with my wife and work on my health. bankroll I set aside is money i am prepared to lose.
I am sure I will be needing fellow pros advice in the months to come.
Thats it. 0.4 I will play. THANX Don again.
anyhow, Don, thanx, further ...
I am shooting for 1000 hours in 6 months. otherwise, not worth it. one hour at a time = massive down time. I live in a smaller community with a reasonable social profile. The one casino here leaves me alone. I have license to back count and jump in. Except they cut 60/40 and no surrender. When i go somewhere else, I usually have to make deals with somebody lol. if they are capitalistic enough, usually works. if not, i know i am on borrowed time anyways.
I just wanna do this full time, at least once, before the game becomes completely random sample WITH replacements. furthermore, I will have more spare time to spend with my wife and work on my health. bankroll I set aside is money i am prepared to lose.
I am sure I will be needing fellow pros advice in the months to come.
Thats it. 0.4 I will play. THANX Don again.
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
Did you call me son? Lol. You're funnySo_what_MD said:
So_what_MD
Active Member
We got past that already.Counting_Is_Fun said:
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
"2. 0.4 kelly is safe, in the expense of rate of return. 1 kelly is nice, but I might have to keep adding bankroll. that becomes an open liability issue.
can you shed some light on the above pls?"
If you know the numbers, the ultimate decision is up to you. Many avoid full Kelly because of the roller-coaster ride induced by variance. Yes 0.4, or other fractional Kelly rates, is safer, but at the expense of reduced e.v. That choice has to be yours, based on the bankroll considerations that you mention above. Play that fraction that let's you sleep at night and doesn't put undue financial strain on you.
So_what_MD,
Good advice above. And also it is going to depend on where you play, and what the heat is like. Even if you have a big bankroll...you might want to play to full Kelly...but conditions, table max, or heat often demand that you play only a fraction...or you will probably be asked to leave soon.
can you shed some light on the above pls?"
If you know the numbers, the ultimate decision is up to you. Many avoid full Kelly because of the roller-coaster ride induced by variance. Yes 0.4, or other fractional Kelly rates, is safer, but at the expense of reduced e.v. That choice has to be yours, based on the bankroll considerations that you mention above. Play that fraction that let's you sleep at night and doesn't put undue financial strain on you.
So_what_MD,
Good advice above. And also it is going to depend on where you play, and what the heat is like. Even if you have a big bankroll...you might want to play to full Kelly...but conditions, table max, or heat often demand that you play only a fraction...or you will probably be asked to leave soon.
So_what_MD
Active Member
Thanx for the advice CIF.
I have always been intrigued by the "outside" elements. But too chicken to do anything illegal. So breaking rules in the 21st century casino with no more "backroom" is right up my alley hehe.
Local casino here is good for table conditioning and catching up with gossip. But they cut too deep, albeit i can bet table max and split aces 32 times (European rules).
I been 86'd enough times. Rightfully so. I am there to take their money. I used to be quiet, mind my own business, no tipping, no drinking, basically got "counter" written over my forehead. When I go away now, I try to do the opposite. Go to high limit, buy a round, play like an idiot, ask waitresses to hit or waive for me; split faces or hard hit 20. Keep buying drinks. Dealers usually love me - Idiot is here to donate. then I buddy up with them, take them out for drinks. From there I learn the organizational culture towards counters. Who is greedy and who is a prick lol. Eventually I get to the top. The remaining is very innovative, you scratch my back I will scratch yours, lol.
Thanx again.
I have always been intrigued by the "outside" elements. But too chicken to do anything illegal. So breaking rules in the 21st century casino with no more "backroom" is right up my alley hehe.
Local casino here is good for table conditioning and catching up with gossip. But they cut too deep, albeit i can bet table max and split aces 32 times (European rules).
I been 86'd enough times. Rightfully so. I am there to take their money. I used to be quiet, mind my own business, no tipping, no drinking, basically got "counter" written over my forehead. When I go away now, I try to do the opposite. Go to high limit, buy a round, play like an idiot, ask waitresses to hit or waive for me; split faces or hard hit 20. Keep buying drinks. Dealers usually love me - Idiot is here to donate. then I buddy up with them, take them out for drinks. From there I learn the organizational culture towards counters. Who is greedy and who is a prick lol. Eventually I get to the top. The remaining is very innovative, you scratch my back I will scratch yours, lol.
Thanx again.
No, you can split aces 31 times to make 32 hands.So_what_MD said:
As for socializing with the dealers, that's a big mistake. If you are seen, you could easily be accused of colluding with those dealers, and both of you could be in big trouble. Just not worth the risk.
Don
Counting_Is_Fun
Well-Known Member
Of course I agree with Don's post above. And you say "outside" elements...and something illegal? I have no idea what you are talking about...I brought up nothing illegal. My post was only about being cautious in some circumstances regarding playing to full Kelly, even though it is optimal regarding EV. Maybe each forum should have a reading comprehension tutorial ugg.So_what_MD said:
So_what_MD
Active Member
Thanx Don and CIF.Counting_Is_Fun said:
"outside' = non conventional.
"Illegal", gambling, sex and drugs were considered the THREE sins. Somehow, the American Indian Gaming Agreement gave us each a casino in our backyards. Old school me, commercial gaming is still illegal in a lot of regards.
So for me to be playing with a positive expectation, in a "once upon a time" illegal outfit, is just a "thrill of a lifetime". Basically I am robbing donkeys money thru the dealers' hands, They lose, I win, dealer moves his chips to me. Its an outside way of making money, but totally legal.
CIF, I wasnt referring to anything you said.
Don:
Question please.
Sky high count, cut card comes out in mid hand, usually 100 cut off, I split 32 times, more or less penetrate 64 more cards, roughly 35 left when I pass it to the house. According to your "cut card placement advantage", did I improve my win rate by a huge margin? I dont think you discuss that in your "Blackjack Attack, Playing the Pro's Way" book. I am not even talking about the huge increase in true count; instead of divided by 2 now divided by 0.5
Thank you in advance.
So_what_MD
Active Member
SEX I meant prostitutionSo_what_MD said:
Again, you split 31 times, not 32. You make 32 hands. Do you understand the nuance? If you're referring to the Floating Advantage, it states that, deeper in the shoe, the same true count confers more advantage than it did earlier. So, as you would play the many splits, your edge for each hand may, in fact, be increasing.So_what_MD said:
As for this statement, "I am not even talking about the huge increase in true count; instead of divided by 2 now divided by 0.5," it probably isn't true. As cards are dealt, and aces continue to come out, your running count is probably decreasing. And while this may be offset by the decreasing denominator, there is no tendency for the TC to change as cards are being dealt. On average, the TC remains the same.
Don
Yes I know what you mean about reading a table, and it actually does have at least one very simple explanation. I used to practice with a 6D shoe at my house. There was a time when I was losing money on each shoe despite my true counts of +2 and higher. There was one shoe where I just stopped after 2 consecutive runs of 6 losses with max bets out. There was a hand here and there that won, but this was clearly not feeling right. The hands were garbage and I remember thinking "where dafuq are all these low cards coming from?" So I open up the shoe and lay the remaining cards out on the table, not including those behind the cut card. Imagine my surprise when I found that there were about 10 or 11 more low cards than high cards. The count wasn't really moving, or would move up and get 'stuck' because of so many stiff hands. Now in a casino you wouldn't know that you were max betting into a surplus of low cards instead of high cards, and you prolly get killed. But you can use my observation of the 'stuck' count and the neverending string of low card dealer 21's that the count is most likely not high at all. I recently had a running count so high I had to do the TC conversion on a calculator. The count rose from the first hand till the shuffle, and it never dropped, nor did the dealer have a problem hitting his hands. The last 15 hands of the shoe he made 14 of them and busted 1. He must have been practicing. Anyway, that's one reason.So_what_MD said:
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