Just got off the AC treadmill

[aslan]

MNF-clue...."Are you ready for some football?"

Hahaha! Brain strain! I didn't put two and two together. I was thinking of some show native to Las Vegas. The only time I'm ever in Vegas during FB season is October, but I'll be sure to visit Sam's Town next year.

 

[aslan]

There are enough 3:2, DOA, H-17 SD games around town to keep you salivating. Nice DD games also, a few with DAS. The main difference between SD, DD and shoes is you have to watch your spreads and be aware of heat. Believe me, you won't have to backcount very long anywhere.

I was told by forum members that DD is no good without double after splitting. I played such a game at Harrah's in Vegas and won, but the comment was that I got lucky.

 

[aslan]

I wonder if their are any gamblers on this board or do they play everthing to the book? Everthing gambler in his lifetime has done something like this when the odds are stacked up against them. I would say 99.9% of this board has done something similiar whether it other forms of casino gambling or sports betting. Lets not forget about the biggest CASINO in the world the NYSE! They call it investing but I call it a legal liscense to steal you money! So cut Asian a break we all have been there and done that. Right? Let he who is without sin cast the first stone. John 8:7 :laugh:

Thank you, my friend. I invited the criticism by my honest post, but I did so in order to get the needed critique to improve my game, so if there were a few sucker punches, that's okay. The biggest sin in gambling is betting money you can't afford to lose. I haven't done that in 38 years. If I'm compulsive, the compulsions are few and far between! lol

PS--It's ASLAN. Az

 

[Preston]

As both a card counter AND a compulsive gambler I can see through this...

Even in my worst uproars from my days as a CG I would NEVER throw down $1000 on a roulette bet. Did you get hit with negative variance? Or were you just over betting? Betting according to running count or true count?

You are playing on emotion and I something tells me you know a decent amount about AP play, but you have yet to master it. The Borgata DOES have beatable games, although it takes discipline and patience. There are enough pits in there to be able to find a decent game. I've never seen truly atrocious penetration there like you claim to have seem.

I'd really look at my bankroll management... $225 bets at a $5 table? In all my time card counting I very rarely see a count that justifies a 2x 25 unit bet or even a 60 unit bet.

I would really look at your gambling history and maybe even if addictions run in your family... 'cuz it really looks like you've got a problem.

 

[InPlay]

Thank you, my friend. I invited the criticism by my honest post, but I did so in order to get the needed critique to improve my game, so if there were a few sucker punches, that's okay. The biggest sin in gambling is betting money you can't afford to lose. I haven't done that in 38 years. If I'm compulsive, the compulsions are few and far between! lol

PS--It's ASLAN. Az

We need to bare our souls. The truth shall set you free. How many of you AP have bought a lottery ticket? A true AP person would never buy one. Some of the odds on these games are as high 80 million to one. Where's the advantage in this game? Sometimes when you are gambling your emotions take over brain and you think you can't do anything wrong no matter what the game. You think you can beat it and sometimes you do and the renforces your emotions.

 

[InPlay]

As both a card counter AND a compulsive gambler I can see through this...

Even in my worst uproars from my days as a CG I would NEVER throw down $1000 on a roulette bet.

Then you are not compulsive gambler. I seen people gamble thousand away on a weekend in sports with money they don't have or can get. Bet a bunch of games and hope you win or start stalling for time until your next hit.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

We need to bare our souls. The truth shall set you free. How many of you AP have bought a lottery ticket? A true AP person would never buy one. Some of the odds on these games are as high 80 million to one. Where's the advantage in this game? Sometimes when you are gambling your emotions take over brain and you think you can't do anything wrong no matter what the game. You think you can beat it and sometimes you do and the renforces your emotions.

I don't think we do that, not the veteran AP's here. If wild swings turn you on there's enough opportunity to do that just playing BJ with an advantage. I've lost $1400 on one BJ hand, starting with a $10 betting unit (7 max bets of $200, lost when the dealer caught a 21). One extra pip for the dealer and I would have won $1400 instead. What the hell do I have to go play roulette for when things like this can happen?

The only straight gambling (for it's own sake, comp and cover play not included) I'll ever do is similar to what Shadroch says, watch a baseball game on the big screen with free drinks and a $20 bet on the Yankees, just to put some money where my loyalty is.

 

[21forme]

The Borgata DOES have beatable games, although it takes discipline and patience. There are enough pits in there to be able to find a decent game. I've never seen truly atrocious penetration there like you claim to have seem.

I don't know when you were last there (I remember the sleeping in the car story last year...) but things have changed in the last month. I heard they got hit hard by a team recently and since then, dealers have been instructed to cut off 2 1/2 decks. Personally, I've seen mostly 2 decks cut off there in the last few weeks, which still sucks compared to what it used to be.

 

[InPlay]

I don't think we do that, not the veteran AP's here. If wild swings turn you on there's enough opportunity to do that just playing BJ with an advantage. I've lost $1400 on one BJ hand, starting with a $10 betting unit (7 max bets of $200, lost when the dealer caught a 21). One extra pip for the dealer and I would have won $1400 instead. What the hell do I have to go play roulette for when things like this can happen?

The only straight gambling (for it's own sake, comp and cover play not included) I'll ever do is similar to what Shadroch says, watch a baseball game on the big screen with free drinks and a $20 bet on the Yankees, just to put some money where my loyalty is.

Done that also. But my point is that we are all gamblers at heart. Last time I was in Vegas (August) no free drinks at the sportsbooks unless you are betting a certain amount. If you bet so much they would give you drink tickets. So you are saying you have never bought a lottery ticket ?

 

[GeorgeD]

Here's something I'd like to get some commet on. I have a hard time getting any sleep in my room. It's bad enough at home, where I wake up every three or four hours and have to force myself to sleep. In the casino, I wake up even more frequently. I guess it is the atmosphere they try to drum up to keep people gambling. I guess I just have to keep forcing myself to go back to sleep like I do at home. I brough sleeping pills, AdvilPM, but forgot to take one until I woke up a couple of times. Then it was too late or I would have been groggy all day. Anyone else have this problem?

Have your doctor refer you for a sleep study. Sometimes sleep apnea presents as frequent waking up in general, waking up a lot to pee etc. It's also sometimes worse when you're away from home.

 

[Mr. T]

Thank you, my friend. I invited the criticism by my honest post, but I did so in order to get the needed critique to improve my game, so if there were a few sucker punches, that's okay. The biggest sin in gambling is betting money you can't afford to lose. I haven't done that in 38 years. If I'm compulsive, the compulsions are few and far between! lol

PS--It's ASLAN. Az

Friend, we are not trying to put you down.
Just want to make sure if you are complusive, are in danger of being so or already.
If you realise that you have gambled money that you cannot afford it is usually too late.
Problem gamblers are normally detect by their playing habits and state of mind. To me the real test like alcohol addition is whether you can stay away from booze or in your case the casino for an extended period of time and not suffer withdrawal symtoms.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Done that also. But my point is that we are all gamblers at heart. Last time I was in Vegas (August) no free drinks at the sportsbooks unless you are betting a certain amount. If you bet so much they would give you drink tickets. So you are saying you have never bought a lottery ticket ?

Only as gifts for people I knew were into them.

I'm really not a gambler, honestly. It's the concept of getting rich by being smart that appeals to me, not the risk and unpredictability.

 

[shadroch]

Aslan,
I almost always rent a car in Vegas.If you are casino hopping,its the easiest way to go.The week of Dec 10th,I'm paying $111 plus gas for a Cobalt class
car. That's $15 a day,less than the cost of one taxi ride.

 

[InPlay]

Only as gifts for people I knew were into them.

I'm really not a gambler, honestly. It's the concept of getting rich by being smart that appeals to me, not the risk and unpredictability.

Look at all the great minds and inventors of our times. They all have marched to a different drumer. Sometimes you have to step out of the box and push it or other wise you are trapped in the box. Like a rat on a wheel. No disrepect intended towards you I just am trying to make a point.

 

[bj bob]

We need to bare our souls. The truth shall set you free. How many of you AP have bought a lottery ticket? A true AP person would never buy one. Some of the odds on these games are as high 80 million to one.

I have, on occasion, when the jackpot reaches about 150% of the true odds which translates into around $300,000,000 for the Mega Millions. I'm always loking for a +EV play even though the variance on it sucks big time.
Just a buck and obviously not very often.

 

[Kasi]

I meant game plan in the broader sense.

And I meant game plan(s) in the most specific sense possible , so specific in fact, I'm guessing you may have not even imagined it yet. Or perhaps ever. :grin:

But, if you think a game plan is writing down walking around more looking for a "good" game when you just spent 17 hours playing an unbeatbale game, maybe playing less continuously and playing when fresh and maybe promising to play no negative EV game, well, that's just a little too broad for my taste.

I'm not trying to put you down in any way whatsoever and appreciate the guts it takes to post here and bare your soul asking for potential improvements.

So, if I sound harsh, I apologize. Call it "tough love" lol.

I'd just feel better knowing you had a real specific plan for each and every game you may be playing, etc.

And, while I'm here, I don't make any conclusion from you betting at roulette.
Hey - a much better chance of winning the next spin than winning the next BJ hand and with less variance lol.

 

[Kasi]

I was told by forum members that DD is no good without double after splitting. I played such a game at Harrah's in Vegas and won, but the comment was that I got lucky.

See that's just the point. Why would you even just blindly believe such a general statement? What might make it true? What might make it false?

What would change if the game were H17 only or H17 with LS or S17 with or without LS or with or without DA2 even if DAS didn't exist? And what would change with any of the above if the game were dealt 52/104 vs 70/104 or something in between? What if it were D9?

What would change if you chose to backcount any of the above, and what if you only entered at TC +1 as opposed to TC+2 or even TC+3, as opposed to play-all? What would change if you only wong-out a certain point because mid-shoe entry is not allowed?

What would change if you chose to not jump your bets in accordance with the count?

What would change if you spread to 2 hands at a certain count vs not doing so?

How would you bet a lifetime/trip bankroll under all those circumstances and what win rate would you be expecting? Not to mention ROR.

Would you bring a different amount of money if you will be playing 16 hours vs 100 hours? If so, how much?

Then figure all that out for a 6D game if you are planning on playing one.

You playing indices too? - they're probably different for different decks.

And that's just the beginning.

Stuff like that. Not stuff like thinking "I'll be well-rested when I play" is enough. As if that's all that may be wrong with one's current approach. As fine an idea as it is. And one I couldn't agree more with, btw.

That's the kind of stuff you have to figure out ahead of time at least in some broad way, at least it makes me feel better anyway, even if it's only an illusion, so you have an idea of ranges under various circumstances.

What's that? You don't know, or at least have some idea, of all these answers?

Hey, even a blind squirrel finds some nuts.

 

[aslan]

And I meant game plan(s) in the most specific sense possible , so specific in fact, I'm guessing you may have not even imagined it yet. Or perhaps ever. :grin:

But, if you think a game plan is writing down walking around more looking for a "good" game when you just spent 17 hours playing an unbeatbale game, maybe playing less continuously and playing when fresh and maybe promising to play no negative EV game, well, that's just a little too broad for my taste.

I'm not trying to put you down in any way whatsoever and appreciate the guts it takes to post here and bare your soul asking for potential improvements.

So, if I sound harsh, I apologize. Call it "tough love" lol.

I'd just feel better knowing you had a real specific plan for each and every game you may be playing, etc.

And, while I'm here, I don't make any conclusion from you betting at roulette.
Hey - a much better chance of winning the next spin than winning the next BJ hand and with less variance lol.

So I gather it would be smart to figure out each type of game I might encounter, which in AC means 6-deck and 8-deck, and what my minimum requirements would be to even consider sitting down at the table. Things I should include would be rules (I don't think they vary much in AC, except for mid-shoe entry); minimally acceptable penetration (according to Snyder, if I can find 75% pen, wong in at a 0.5% advantage {using KO that's about a RC of -2 I believe in 6-deck}, I can attain about $28/hr flatbetting $100, and reduced flux) or if the pen is 65% wonging in at 0.5% adv, I can attain about $20/hr flatbetting $100; Exit strategy for wonging out where NME; betting progressions (I use the suggested betting progressions from the KO book, starting with two units at -4, and progressing to 10 units at +4 (which coincides with TC of +4). I'll have to sit down and see if there is anything else I need to take into account.

 

[aslan]

See that's just the point. Why would you even just blindly believe such a general statement? What might make it true? What might make it false?

I haven't checked it out, but no one disagreed with InPlay's post, which was: "No need to check. All Harrahs are the same no DAS for 2 deck games period. No assumed AP or card counter would play at a Harrahs unless they were hole carding or had something else going." I think DAS is worth 0.13%, which doesn't seem so drastic. What is your opinion of InPlay's comment?

What would change if the game were H17 only or H17 with LS or S17 with or without LS or with or without DA2 even if DAS didn't exist? And what would change with any of the above if the game were dealt 52/104 vs 70/104 or something in between? What if it were D9?

I believe H17 is worth -0.20% and LS is +0.06%. DA2 is -0.21%, DAS is +0.13%. 50% pen would give about .33 units/hr if you wonged in at 0.5% advantage which I think is about +2 in KO, but it's not a good game to full play. 70% pen would give you about .46 units/hr assuming H17 (house advantage of about 0.5%) if you spread 1 to 4 and played full. Strip rules of S17 would give the house about a 0.3% advantage off the top. Being very new to all this it would take me time to figure all the varying combinations you propose.

What would change if you chose to backcount any of the above, and what if you only entered at TC +1 as opposed to TC+2 or even TC+3, as opposed to play-all? What would change if you only wong-out a certain point because mid-shoe entry is not allowed?

Your win rates would of course change depending on the pen and when you entered in, as well as whether you flat bet or progressively increased your bet once you did wong in. I do have a chart that covers these sorts of things. I wonder how long you could get away with backcounting DD games; sounds difficult to me in places I have played.

What would change if you chose to not jump your bets in accordance with the count?

There are a variety of ways you could jump your bets as the count rises, and each system of progressive betting, or conversely of flat betting would change your win rate accordingly. I have charts that show me how these differences affect your overall performance.

What would change if you spread to 2 hands at a certain count vs not doing so?

You would reduce variance, although you should lower your bet from max to about 75% to keep your RoR from rising.

How would you bet a lifetime/trip bankroll under all those circumstances and what win rate would you be expecting? Not to mention ROR.

I could figure out the expected win rate for each of the above circumstances. In DD, I would want to get at least 0.7%, but with backcounting something over 1.5%. RoR is something I use rather loosely since my BR is readily replenishible, even on a trip if I so choose.

Would you bring a different amount of money if you will be playing 16 hours vs 100 hours? If so, how much?

I have only run short once, and that was before I understood the RoR calculation. So I went to the bank and replenished my trip BR.

Then figure all that out for a 6D game if you are planning on playing one.

No problemo.

You playing indices too? - they're probably different for different decks.

I play the KO preferred indices, which have a few added plays for single and double deck.

And that's just the beginning.

Stuff like that. Not stuff like thinking "I'll be well-rested when I play" is enough. As if that's all that may be wrong with one's current approach. As fine an idea as it is. And one I couldn't agree more with, btw.

Getting sufficient rest was a major failing in my last trip to AC. I am certain that rest alone would have kept me in the winner circle for that trip, not that there weren't mistakes made, for example, playing poor pen at Borgata, although it didn't cost me.

That's the kind of stuff you have to figure out ahead of time at least in some broad way, at least it makes me feel better anyway, even if it's only an illusion, so you have an idea of ranges under various circumstances.

What's that? You don't know, or at least have some idea, of all these answers?

Hey, even a blind squirrel finds some nuts.

You're not turning smartass on me, are you? :laugh:

Thanks for your comments; they are thought-provoking and appreciated.

 

[Kasi]

So I gather it would be smart to figure out each type of game I might encounter, which in AC means 6-deck and 8-deck, and what my minimum requirements would be to even consider sitting down at the table.

Well, yeah, that's what I mean lol. "Broadly speaking" anyway lol.

The "no-mid-shoe entry" is a biggie to me eliminating completely the possibility of wonging in.

Also, give alot of thought as to whether your bankroll supports the min bet with a risk you are comfortable with.

What does your bankroll (trip or lifetime) need to be to wong in at TC +1 with a $100 bet and what do u spread from there or is that just a flat bet?

Were you saying you will spread 100 to 1000 backcounting?

I apologize for using Hi-lo numbers but I'm more comfortable with them than with KO.

I don't have all the answers, that's one thing you can bet the mortgage on, but I'm just saying question every detail along the way.

Like Snyder says this or that, what were his assumptions? Never jumping a bet? Always jumping a bet? What ROR is associated with his $100 bet?

Blah blah blah.

May I ask what you have done in the past, like last trip say, or is this some new approach, at least in some way, to you?

I got my own way of doing things, for better or worse, probably worse, and they don't include a sim. Just so you know. So feel free to think I'm full of it. Could very well be.

Do you have a sim? I'm guessing no. If you don't, I'm asking why?

But if I played half as often as you, with half the money at risk, in games twice as good, I'd consider a good sim (can you say Norm?) cheap at twice the price if it only answered even one of these questions.

Tell me a lifetime of answers isn't worth one bet. Yet it seems to me alot of people risk alot of money based on I'm not sure what. But, stuff like, "somebody said I should spread more in a crappy game". Or like "I'll take a bigger roll next time" or like "maybe I'll play $25 min next time."

They lose thousands and thousands, wonder why, and it's all chalked up by others as "bad luck". Or "bad variance" so it sounds better. Apparently implying, no matter how great the losses in however short a period of time, just keep doing what you are doing and it will turn around as surely as the sun will rise in the east tomorrow since, after all, you are a Card-Counter, and, as such, you have some God-given right to eventually come out ahead.

There sre so many reasons why one can lose more than even, even if one has one, a sim would suggest, I can't even begin.

I must be in a bad mood tonite for some reason. So apologies for ranting on.
And sorry my glass is almost always half-empty.

But I'm rarely disappointed that way lol.